Making waves: Promoting municipal water reuse without a prevailing scarcity driver.

The wealth of water reuse research in scarcity and/or rapid urbanisation contexts has underpinned significant change in many relatively water scarce contexts. Less progress has been achieved in water rich contexts; a fact illustrated by the lack of change on the ground. The Climate Emergency demands that all municipalities urgently contribute to more efficient resource management of water. Consequently, to advance municipal scale reuse projects in locations where scarcity is not forcing the issue, for example Scotland, there is a need to predicate water reuse on different drivers, specifically climate change and the circular economy. Moreover, greater contextual sensitivity needs to be applied when exploring barriers to reuse to more critically exploit opportunities, for example avenues to reform complex regulatory frameworks, different contingencies around trust, and different potential degrees of the yuck factor. To achieve this, new initiatives need to be urgently undertaken to consider the barriers to reuse that will not be swept aside by the imperative of  scarcity. The notion of a yum factor, whereby positive sentiments are nurtured to combat instinctive repugnance, coined as yuck by the bioethicist Arthur Caplan, is advanced as a strategic objective to promote more rapid expansion of municipal scale reuse.

A risk-based approach for developing standards for irrigation with reclaimed water.

A generalised quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is developed to assess the potential harm to human health resulting from irrigation with reclaimed water. The QRA is conducted as a backward calculation starting from a pre-defined acceptable risk level at the receptor point (defined as an annual infection risk of 10-4 for pathogens and by reference doses (RfD) for chemical hazards) and results in an estimate of the corresponding acceptable concentration levels of the given hazards in the effluent. In this way the QRA is designed to inform the level of water treatment required to achieve an acceptable risk level and help establish reclaimed water quality standards. The QRA considers the exposure of human receptors to microbial and chemical hazards in the effluent through various exposure pathways and routes depending on the specific irrigation scenario. By considering multiple pathways and routes, a number of key aspects relevant to estimating human exposure to recycled water can be accounted for, including irrigation and crop handling practices (e.g., non-edible vs edible, spray vs. drip, withholding time) and volumes consumed (directly vs indirectly). The QRA relies on a large number of inputs, many of which were found to be highly uncertain. A possibilistic approach, based on fuzzy set theory, was used to propagate the uncertain input values through the QRA model to estimate the possible range of hazard concentrations that are deemed acceptable/safe for reclaimed water irrigation. Two scenarios were considered: amenity irrigation and irrigation of ready-to-eat food crops, and calculations were carried out for six example hazards (norovirus, Cryptosporidium, cadmium, lead, PCB118 and naphthalene) and using UK-specific input values. The human health risks associated with using reclaimed water for amenity irrigation were overall deemed low, i.e. the calculated acceptable concentration levels for most of the selected hazards were generally far greater than levels typically measured in effluent from wastewater treatment plants; however the predicted acceptable concentration levels for norovirus and Cryptosporidium suggested that disinfection by UV may be required before use. It was found that stricter concentration standards were required for hazards that are more strongly bound to soil and/or are more toxic/infectious. It was also found that measures that reduce the amount of effluent directly ingested by the receptor would significantly reduce the risks (by up to 2 orders of magnitude for the two pathogens). The results for the food crop irrigation scenario showed that stricter concentration standards are required to ensure the effluent is safe to use. For pathogens, the dominant exposure route was found to be ingestion of effluent captured on the surface of the crops indicating that risks could be significantly reduced by restricting irrigation to the non-edible parts of the crop. The results also showed that the exposure to some organic compounds and heavy metals through plant uptake and attached soil particles could be high and possibly pose unacceptable risk to human health. For both scenarios, we show that the predicted acceptable concentration levels are associated with large uncertainty and discuss the implications this has for defining quality standards and how the uncertainty can be reduced.

Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease.

In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government.