Sparking Virtuous Cycles: A Longitudinal Study of Subjective Well-Being and Grit During Early Adolescence.

In cross-sectional research, subjective well-being and grit are found to be positively correlated. Their mutually reinforcing effects are particularly relevant for youth entering early adolescence because, during this developmental period, both well-being and grit have been shown to predict consequential outcomes later in life. However, their mutual relation has not yet been investigated in early adolescence. This study, therefore, examined the possibility of a virtuous cycle linking subjective well-being and grit during early adolescence. Self-report questionnaires of grit and subjective well-being were completed by N = 5291 children in China (47.6% girls; initial Mage = 9.69, SDage = 0.59) on six occasions over 3 academic years. In random-intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPMs), within-person changes in grit predicted within-person changes in subjective well-being 6 months later, and vice versa. Notably, analyses revealed an asymmetry in this cycle: paths from subjective well-being to grit were stronger and more reliable than the converse. Likewise, facet-level analyses showed that the predictive power of the perseverance component (of grit) and the affective component (of subjective well-being), respectively, was greater than the passion and cognitive components, respectively. These findings highlight the potential of boosting happiness for catalyzing positive youth development and, in addition, foreground the utility of studying these composite constructs at the facet level.

Using artificial intelligence to assess personal qualities in college admissions.

Personal qualities like prosocial purpose and leadership predict important life outcomes, including college success. Unfortunately, the holistic assessment of personal qualities in college admissions is opaque and resource intensive. Can artificial intelligence (AI) advance the goals of holistic admissions? While cost-effective, AI has been criticized as a "black box" that may inadvertently penalize already disadvantaged subgroups when used in high-stakes settings. Here, we consider an AI approach to assessing personal qualities that aims to overcome these limitations. Research assistants and admissions officers first identified the presence/absence of seven personal qualities in n = 3131 applicant essays describing extracurricular and work experiences. Next, we fine-tuned pretrained language models with these ratings, which successfully reproduced human codes across demographic subgroups. Last, in a national sample (N = 309,594), computer-generated scores collectively demonstrated incremental validity for predicting 6-year college graduation. We discuss challenges and opportunities of AI for assessing personal qualities.

Parental intrusive homework support and math achievement: Does the child's mindset matter?

Prior research shows that when parents monitor, check, and assist in completing homework without an invitation, their children's motivation and academic achievement often decline. We propose that intrusive support from parents might also send the message that children are incompetent, especially if they believe their intelligence is fixed. We tested whether children's mindsets moderate the negative link between parents' intrusive homework support and achievement among first- and second-grade students followed for one academic year (Study 1, N = 563) and middle and high school students for two academic years (Study 2, N = 1,613). The samples were obtained from large urban areas in the United States. In both studies, intrusive homework support more strongly predicted a decrease in achievement over time for children with a fixed mindset. These findings suggest that the belief that intellectual ability cannot be changed may exacerbate the detrimental effects of uninvited help on academic work. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

What can machine learning teach us about habit formation? Evidence from exercise and hygiene.

We apply a machine learning technique to characterize habit formation in two large panel data sets with objective measures of 1) gym attendance (over 12 million observations) and 2) hospital handwashing (over 40 million observations). Our Predicting Context Sensitivity (PCS) approach identifies context variables that best predict behavior for each individual. This approach also creates a time series of overall predictability for each individual. These time series predictability values are used to trace a habit formation curve for each individual, operationalizing the time of habit formation as the asymptotic limit of when behavior becomes highly predictable. Contrary to the popular belief in a "magic number" of days to develop a habit, we find that it typically takes months to form the habit of going to the gym but weeks to develop the habit of handwashing in the hospital. Furthermore, we find that gymgoers who are more predictable are less responsive to an intervention designed to promote more gym attendance, consistent with past experiments showing that habit formation generates insensitivity to reward devaluation.

A field experiment on subgoal framing to boost volunteering: The trade-off between goal granularity and flexibility.

Research suggests that breaking overarching goals into more granular subgoals is beneficial for goal progress. However, making goals more granular often involves reducing the flexibility provided to complete them, and recent work shows that flexibility can also be beneficial for goal pursuit. We examine this trade-off between granularity and flexibility in subgoals in a preregistered, large-scale field experiment (N = 9,108) conducted over several months with volunteers at a national crisis counseling organization. A preregistered vignette pilot study (N = 900) suggests that the subgoal framing tested in the field could benefit goal seekers by bolstering their self-efficacy and goal commitment, and by discouraging procrastination. Our field experiment finds that reframing an overarching goal of 200 hr of volunteering into more granular subgoals (either 4 hr of volunteering every week or 8 hr every 2 weeks) increased hours volunteered by 8% over a 12-week period. Further, increasing subgoal flexibility by breaking an annual 200-hr volunteering goal into a subgoal of volunteering 8 hr every 2 weeks, rather than 4 hr every week, led to more durable benefits. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

A Randomized Trial of Behavioral Nudges Delivered Through Text Messages to Increase Influenza Vaccination Among Patients With an Upcoming Primary Care Visit.

PURPOSE: To evaluate if nudges delivered by text message prior to an upcoming primary care visit can increase influenza vaccination rates. DESIGN: Randomized, controlled trial. SETTING: Two health systems in the Northeastern US between September 2020 and March 2021. SUBJECTS: 74,811 adults. INTERVENTIONS: Patients in the 19 intervention arms received 1-2 text messages in the 3 days preceding their appointment that varied in their format, interactivity, and content. MEASURES: Influenza vaccination. ANALYSIS: Intention-to-treat. RESULTS: Participants had a mean (SD) age of 50.7 (16.2) years; 55.8% (41,771) were female, 70.6% (52,826) were White, and 19.0% (14,222) were Black. Among the interventions, 5 of 19 (26.3%) had a significantly greater vaccination rate than control. On average, the 19 interventions increased vaccination relative to control by 1.8 percentage points or 6.1% (P = .005). The top performing text message described the vaccine to the patient as "reserved for you" and led to a 3.1 percentage point increase (95% CI, 1.3 to 4.9; P < .001) in vaccination relative to control. Three of the top five performing messages described the vaccine as "reserved for you." None of the interventions performed worse than control. CONCLUSIONS: Text messages encouraging vaccination and delivered prior to an upcoming appointment significantly increased influenza vaccination rates and could be a scalable approach to increase vaccination more broadly.

Large studies reveal how reference bias limits policy applications of self-report measures.

There is growing policy interest in identifying contexts that cultivate self-regulation. Doing so often entails comparing groups of individuals (e.g., from different schools). We show that self-report questionnaires-the most prevalent modality for assessing self-regulation-are prone to reference bias, defined as systematic error arising from differences in the implicit standards by which individuals evaluate behavior. In three studies, adolescents (N = 229,685) whose peers performed better academically rated themselves lower in self-regulation and held higher standards for self-regulation. This effect was not observed for task measures of self-regulation and led to paradoxical predictions of college persistence 6 years later. These findings suggest that standards for self-regulation vary by social group, limiting the policy applications of self-report questionnaires.

A citywide experiment testing the impact of geographically targeted, high-pay-off vaccine lotteries.

Lotteries have been shown to motivate behaviour change in many settings, but their value as a policy tool is relatively untested. We implemented a pre-registered, citywide experiment to test the effects of three high-pay-off, geographically targeted lotteries designed to motivate adult Philadelphians to get their COVID-19 vaccine. In each drawing, the residents of a randomly selected 'treatment' zip code received half the lottery prizes, boosting their chances of winning to 50×-100× those of other Philadelphians. The first treated zip code, which drew considerable media attention, may have experienced a small bump in vaccinations compared with the control zip codes: average weekly vaccinations rose by an estimated 61 per 100,000 people per week (+11%). After pooling the results from all three zip codes treated during our six-week experiment, however, we do not detect evidence of any overall benefits. Furthermore, our 95% confidence interval provides a 9% upper bound on the net benefits of treatment in our study.

Self-control and SAT outcomes: Evidence from two national field studies.

Self-control is often thought to be synonymous with willpower, defined as the direct modulation of impulses in order to do what is best in the long-run. However, research has also identified more strategic approaches to self-control that require less effort than willpower. To date, field research is lacking that compares the efficacy of willpower to strategic self-control for consequential and objectively measured real-world outcomes. In collaboration with the College Board, we surveyed two national samples of high school students about how they motivated themselves to study for the SAT college admission exam. In Study 1 (N = 5,563), compared to willpower, strategic self-control predicted more hours of SAT practice and higher SAT scores, even when controlling for prior PSAT scores. Additionally, the more self-control strategies students deployed, the higher their SAT scores. Consistent with dose-response curves in other domains, there were positive albeit diminishing marginal returns to additional strategies. Mediation analyses suggest that the benefits of self-control strategies to SAT scores was fully explained by increased practice time. These results were confirmed in Study 2, a preregistered replication with N = 14,259 high school students. Compared to willpower, strategic self-control may be especially beneficial in facilitating the pursuit of goals in high-stakes, real-world situations.

The development of grit and growth mindset in Chinese children.

In a recent longitudinal study of U.S. adolescents, grit predicted rank-order increases in growth mindset and, to a lesser degree, growth mindset predicted rank-order increases in grit. The current investigation replicated and extended these findings in a younger non-Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic (non-WEIRD) population. Two large samples totaling more than 5000 elementary school children in China completed self-report questionnaires assessing grit and growth mindset five times over 2 years. As in Park et al. (2020, Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, 198, 1048892020), we found reciprocal relations between grit and growth mindset. Grit systematically predicted rank-order increases in growth mindset at each subsequent 6-month interval. Growth mindset also predicted small rank-order increases in grit over the same period. These findings suggest that, over time, behavior may exert as much an influence on beliefs as the reverse-a dynamic possibly observable as early as in elementary school and not just in WEIRD cultures.

A 680,000-person megastudy of nudges to encourage vaccination in pharmacies.

Encouraging vaccination is a pressing policy problem. To assess whether text-based reminders can encourage pharmacy vaccination and what kinds of messages work best, we conducted a megastudy. We randomly assigned 689,693 Walmart pharmacy patients to receive one of 22 different text reminders using a variety of different behavioral science principles to nudge flu vaccination or to a business-as-usual control condition that received no messages. We found that the reminder texts that we tested increased pharmacy vaccination rates by an average of 2.0 percentage points, or 6.8%, over a 3-mo follow-up period. The most-effective messages reminded patients that a flu shot was waiting for them and delivered reminders on multiple days. The top-performing intervention included two texts delivered 3 d apart and communicated to patients that a vaccine was "waiting for you." Neither experts nor lay people anticipated that this would be the best-performing treatment, underscoring the value of simultaneously testing many different nudges in a highly powered megastudy.

Effects of Ownership Text Message Wording and Reminders on Receipt of an Influenza Vaccination: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Despite the availability of safe and effective vaccines, many people fail to get vaccinated. Messages using behavioral science principles may increase vaccination rates. Objective: To determine the effect on influenza vaccination rates of a text message telling patients that an influenza vaccine had been reserved for them. Design, Setting, and Participants: As part of a larger influenza vaccine messaging megastudy, in this randomized clinical trial, 11 188 patients in 2 large health systems were assigned to receive a text message that stated "a flu shot has been reserved for you," a text message that stated "flu shots will be available," or no text message. Both messages included the option to reply yes (Y) or no (N) to indicate that the patient wanted to get vaccinated. Patients 18 years or older were included if they had new or routine (nonsick) primary care appointments scheduled from September 20, 2020, through March 31, 2021. Interventions: The evening before the scheduled appointment, patients in the 2 message conditions were sent 3 back-to-back SMS messages containing the study wording. Patients in the usual care control group did not receive any study messages. Main Outcomes and Measures: Receipt of an influenza vaccine on the date of the patient's scheduled appointment. Results: A total of 11 188 patients were randomized to the reserved or the available message conditions or to usual care. The 10 158 patients analyzed in the study had a mean (SD) age of 50.61 (16.28) years; 5631 (55.43%) were women; and 7025 (69.16%) were White. According to health records, 4113 (40.49%) had been vaccinated in the previous influenza season, and 5420 (53.36%) were patients at Penn Medicine. In an intent-to-treat analysis, changes in vaccination rates in response to the reserved message did not reach statistical significance (increase of 1.4 percentage points, or 4% [P = .31]) compared with the message conveying that influenza vaccines were available. Relative to the usual care control, the reserved message increased vaccination rates by 3.3 percentage points, or 11% (P = .004). Patients in the reserved message condition were more likely to text back Y (1063 of 3375 [31.50%]) compared with those in the available message condition (887 of 3351 [26.47%]; χ2 = 20.64; P < .001), and those who replied Y were more likely to get vaccinated (1532 of 1950 [78.56%]) compared with those who did not (749 of 4776 [15.68%]; χ2 = 2400; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that patients who received text messages regarding flu vaccination had greater vaccine uptake than those who received no message. Messages that increase the likelihood that patients will indicate their intention to be vaccinated may also increase vaccination behavior. Clinical Trial Registration: ClincalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04565353.

Daily fluctuations in young children's persistence.

Children's behavior changes from day to day, but the factors that contribute to its variability are understudied. We developed a novel repeated measures paradigm to study children's persistence by capitalizing on a task that children complete every day: toothbrushing (N = 81; 48% female; 36-47 months; 80% white, 14% Multiracial, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% Black; 1195 observations collected between January 2019 and March 2020). Children brushed longer on days when their parents used more praise (d = .23) and less instruction (d = -.22). Sensitivity to mood, sleep, and parent stress varied across children, suggesting that identifying the factors that shape an individual child's persistence could lead to personalized interventions.

A guide to megastudies.

How can behavioral insights best be leveraged to solve pressing policy challenges? Because research studies are typically designed to test the validity of a particular idea, surprisingly little is known about the relative efficacy of different approaches to changing behavior in any given policy context. We discuss megastudies as a research approach that can surmount this and other obstacles to developing optimal behaviorally informed policy interventions. We define a megastudy as "a massive field experiment in which many different treatments are tested synchronously in one large sample using a common, objectively measured outcome." We summarize this apples-to-apples approach to research and lay out recommendations, limitations, and promising future directions for scholars who might want to conduct or evaluate megastudies.

More Effort, Less Fatigue: The Role of Interest in Increasing Effort and Reducing Mental Fatigue.

People generally prefer easier over more difficult mental tasks. Using two different adaptations of a demand selection task, we show that interest can influence this effect, such that participants choose options with a higher cognitive workload. Interest was also associated with lower feelings of fatigue. In two studies, participants (N = 63 and N = 158) repeatedly made a choice between completing a difficult or easy math problem. Results show that liking math predicts choosing more difficult (vs. easy) math problems (even after controlling for perceived math skill). Two additional studies used the Academic Diligence Task (Galla et al., 2014), where high school students (N = 447 and N = 884) could toggle between a math task and playing a video game/watching videos. In these studies, we again find that math interest relates to greater proportion of time spent on the math problems. Three of these four studies also examined perceived fatigue, finding that interest relates to lower fatigue. An internal meta-analysis of the four studies finds a small but robust effect of interest on both the willingness to exert greater effort and the experience of less fatigue (despite engaging in more effort).

Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioural science.

Policy-makers are increasingly turning to behavioural science for insights about how to improve citizens' decisions and outcomes1. Typically, different scientists test different intervention ideas in different samples using different outcomes over different time intervals2. The lack of comparability of such individual investigations limits their potential to inform policy. Here, to address this limitation and accelerate the pace of discovery, we introduce the megastudy-a massive field experiment in which the effects of many different interventions are compared in the same population on the same objectively measured outcome for the same duration. In a megastudy targeting physical exercise among 61,293 members of an American fitness chain, 30 scientists from 15 different US universities worked in small independent teams to design a total of 54 different four-week digital programmes (or interventions) encouraging exercise. We show that 45% of these interventions significantly increased weekly gym visits by 9% to 27%; the top-performing intervention offered microrewards for returning to the gym after a missed workout. Only 8% of interventions induced behaviour change that was significant and measurable after the four-week intervention. Conditioning on the 45% of interventions that increased exercise during the intervention, we detected carry-over effects that were proportionally similar to those measured in previous research3-6. Forecasts by impartial judges failed to predict which interventions would be most effective, underscoring the value of testing many ideas at once and, therefore, the potential for megastudies to improve the evidentiary value of behavioural science.

Revisiting the Factor Structure of Grit: A Commentary on Duckworth and Quinn (2009).

This commentary addresses debate over the factor structure of the Grit Scale in both its original and short forms. Commonly (and in our own work), factor solutions are used to establish dimensionality of the construct being measured. For example, a two-factor hierarchical model was proposed for the Short Grit Scale. It has since been pointed out, correctly, that the specified model cannot be distinguished from a model with two correlated subfactors and no higher-order factor. In this commentary, we acknowledge the mathematical equivalence of these specifications and our error in interpretation. However, we also take the opportunity to admit a more profound correction. It is now clear to us that statistical answers cannot definitively settle certain theoretical riddles, and our argument for grit as a compound of related but distinct dispositions should not have relied so heavily on the optimal factor solution for a questionnaire devised to assess it. Rather, a conceptual question demands a conceptual answer, which we briefly attempt here. We conclude by noting the need for improved operationalizations of the tendency to stay committed to goals for years (passion) while working assiduously toward their achievement (perseverance).

Leveraging cognitive science to foster children's persistence.

Persistence is crucial for overcoming academic and interpersonal challenges. However, there has been little progress in developing effective interventions to improve persistence in childhood. Here we outline how recent insights from cognitive science can be leveraged to promote young children's persistence and highlight future directions to bridge research with practice.

A megastudy of text-based nudges encouraging patients to get vaccinated at an upcoming doctor's appointment.

Many Americans fail to get life-saving vaccines each year, and the availability of a vaccine for COVID-19 makes the challenge of encouraging vaccination more urgent than ever. We present a large field experiment (N = 47,306) testing 19 nudges delivered to patients via text message and designed to boost adoption of the influenza vaccine. Our findings suggest that text messages sent prior to a primary care visit can boost vaccination rates by an average of 5%. Overall, interventions performed better when they were 1) framed as reminders to get flu shots that were already reserved for the patient and 2) congruent with the sort of communications patients expected to receive from their healthcare provider (i.e., not surprising, casual, or interactive). The best-performing intervention in our study reminded patients twice to get their flu shot at their upcoming doctor's appointment and indicated it was reserved for them. This successful script could be used as a template for campaigns to encourage the adoption of life-saving vaccines, including against COVID-19.

Beyond willpower.

For all its popularity as a psychological construct, willpower is irremediably polysemous. A more helpful construct is self-control, defined as the self-regulation of conflicting impulses. We show how the process model of self-control provides a principled framework for examining how undesirable impulses may be weakened and desirable impulses may be strengthened.