ResistanceSim: development and acceptability study of a serious game to improve understanding of insecticide resistance management in vector control programmes.

The use of insecticides is the cornerstone of effective malaria vector control. However, the last two decades has seen the ubiquitous use of insecticides, predominantly pyrethroids, causing widespread insecticide resistance and compromising the effectiveness of vector control. Considerable efforts to develop new active ingredients and interventions are underway. However, it is essential to deploy strategies to mitigate the impact of insecticide resistance now, both to maintain the efficacy of currently available tools as well as to ensure the sustainability of new tools as they come to market. Although the World Health Organization disseminated best practice guidelines for insecticide resistance management (IRM), Rollback Malaria's Vector Control Working Group identified the lack of practical knowledge of IRM as the primary gap in the translation of evidence into policy. ResistanceSim is a capacity strengthening tool designed to address this gap. The development process involved frequent stakeholder consultation, including two separate workshops. These workshops defined the learning objectives, target audience, and the role of mathematical models in the game. Software development phases were interspersed with frequent user testing, resulting in an iterative design process. User feedback was evaluated via questionnaires with Likert-scale and open-ended questions. The game was regularly evaluated by subject-area experts through meetings of an external advisory panel. Through these processes, a series of learning domains were identified and a set of specific learning objectives for each domain were defined to be communicated to vector control programme personnel. A simple "game model" was proposed that produces realistic outputs based on player strategy and also runs in real-time. Early testing sessions revealed numerous usability issues that prevented adequate player engagement. After extensive revisions, later testing sessions indicated that the tool would be a valuable addition to IRM training.

Global database of matched Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax incidence and prevalence records from 1985-2013.

Measures of clinical incidence are necessary to help estimate the burden of a disease. Incidence is a metric not commonly measured in malariology because the longitudinal surveys required are costly and labour intensive. This database is an effort to collate published incidence records obtained using active case detection for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The literature search methods, data abstraction procedures and data processing procedures are described here. A total of 1,680 spatio-temporally unique incidence records were collected for the database: 1,187 for P. falciparum and 493 for P. vivax. These data were gathered to model the relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence of infection and can be used for a variety of modelling exercises including the assessment of change in disease burden in relation to age and control interventions. The subset of data that have been used for such modelling exercises are described and identified.

The global distribution of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever.

BACKGROUND: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne infection caused by a virus (CCHFV) from the Bunyaviridae family. Domestic and wild vertebrates are asymptomatic reservoirs for the virus, putting animal handlers, slaughter-house workers and agricultural labourers at highest risk in endemic areas, with secondary transmission possible through contact with infected blood and other bodily fluids. Human infection is characterized by severe symptoms that often result in death. While it is known that CCHFV transmission is limited to Africa, Asia and Europe, definitive global extents and risk patterns within these limits have not been well described. METHODS: We used an exhaustive database of human CCHF occurrence records and a niche modeling framework to map the global distribution of risk for human CCHF occurrence. RESULTS: A greater proportion of shrub or grass land cover was the most important contributor to our model, which predicts highest levels of risk around the Black Sea, Turkey, and some parts of central Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa shows more focalized areas of risk throughout the Sahel and the Cape region. CONCLUSIONS: These new risk maps provide a valuable starting point for understanding the zoonotic niche of CCHF, its extent and the risk it poses to humans.

The global compendium of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence.

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the main vectors transmitting dengue and chikungunya viruses. Despite being pathogens of global public health importance, knowledge of their vectors' global distribution remains patchy and sparse. A global geographic database of known occurrences of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus between 1960 and 2014 was compiled. Herein we present the database, which comprises occurrence data linked to point or polygon locations, derived from peer-reviewed literature and unpublished studies including national entomological surveys and expert networks. We describe all data collection processes, as well as geo-positioning methods, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the first comprehensive global database of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence, consisting of 19,930 and 22,137 geo-positioned occurrence records respectively. Both datasets can be used for a variety of mapping and spatial analyses of the vectors and, by inference, the diseases they transmit.

The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus.

Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.

Mapping the zoonotic niche of Lassa fever in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic illness responsible for disease outbreaks across West Africa. It is a zoonosis, with the primary reservoir species identified as the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. The host is distributed across sub-Saharan Africa while the virus' range appears to be restricted to West Africa. The majority of infections result from interactions between the animal reservoir and human populations, although secondary transmission between humans can occur, particularly in hospital settings. METHODS: Using a species distribution model, the locations of confirmed human and animal infections with Lassa virus (LASV) were used to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential across sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Our results predict that 37.7 million people in 14 countries, across much of West Africa, live in areas where conditions are suitable for zoonotic transmission of LASV. Four of these countries, where at-risk populations are predicted, have yet to report any cases of Lassa fever. CONCLUSIONS: These maps act as a spatial guide for future surveillance activities to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease and understand the anthropological, virological and zoological interactions necessary for viral transmission. Combining this zoonotic niche map with detailed patient travel histories can aid differential diagnoses of febrile illnesses, enabling a more rapid response in providing care and reducing the risk of onward transmission.

Defining the relationship between Plasmodium vivax parasite rate and clinical disease.

BACKGROUND: Though essential to the development and evaluation of national malaria control programmes, precise enumeration of the clinical illness burden of malaria in endemic countries remains challenging where local surveillance systems are incomplete. Strategies to infer annual incidence rates from parasite prevalence survey compilations have proven effective in the specific case of Plasmodium falciparum, but have yet to be developed for Plasmodium vivax. Moreover, defining the relationship between P. vivax prevalence and clinical incidence may also allow levels of endemicity to be inferred for areas where the information balance is reversed, that is, incident case numbers are more widely gathered than parasite surveys; both applications ultimately facilitating cartographic estimates of P. vivax transmission intensity and its ensuring disease burden. METHODS: A search for active case detection surveys was conducted and the recorded incidence values were matched to local, contemporary parasite rate measures and classified to geographic zones of differing relapse phenotypes. A hierarchical Bayesian model was fitted to these data to quantify the relationship between prevalence and incidence while accounting for variation among relapse zones. RESULTS: The model, fitted with 176 concurrently measured P. vivax incidence and prevalence records, was a linear regression of the logarithm of incidence against the logarithm of age-standardized prevalence. Specific relationships for the six relapse zones where data were available were drawn, as well as a pooled overall relationship. The slope of the curves varied among relapse zones; zones with short predicted time to relapse had steeper slopes than those observed to contain long-latency relapse phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: The fitted relationships, along with appropriate uncertainty metrics, allow for estimates of clinical incidence of known confidence to be made from wherever P. vivax prevalence data are available. This is a prerequisite for cartographic-based inferences about the global burden of morbidity due to P. vivax, which will be used to inform control efforts.

A global compendium of human Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus occurrence.

In order to map global disease risk, a geographic database of human Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) occurrence was produced by surveying peer-reviewed literature and case reports, as well as informal online sources. Here we present this database, comprising occurrence data linked to geographic point or polygon locations dating from 1953 to 2013. We fully describe all data collection, geo-positioning, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the most comprehensive database of confirmed CCHF occurrence in humans to-date, containing 1,721 geo-positioned occurrences in total.

Global distribution maps of the leishmaniases.

The leishmaniases are vector-borne diseases that have a broad global distribution throughout much of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Despite representing a significant public health burden, our understanding of the global distribution of the leishmaniases remains vague, reliant upon expert opinion and limited to poor spatial resolution. A global assessment of the consensus of evidence for leishmaniasis was performed at a sub-national level by aggregating information from a variety of sources. A database of records of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis occurrence was compiled from published literature, online reports, strain archives, and GenBank accessions. These, with a suite of biologically relevant environmental covariates, were used in a boosted regression tree modelling framework to generate global environmental risk maps for the leishmaniases. These high-resolution evidence-based maps can help direct future surveillance activities, identify areas to target for disease control and inform future burden estimation efforts.

Defining the geographical range of the Plasmodium knowlesi reservoir.

BACKGROUND: The simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can cause severe and fatal disease in humans yet it is rarely included in routine public health reporting systems for malaria and its geographical range is largely unknown. Because malaria caused by P. knowlesi is a truly neglected tropical disease, there are substantial obstacles to defining the geographical extent and risk of this disease. Information is required on the occurrence of human cases in different locations, on which non-human primates host this parasite and on which vectors are able to transmit it to humans. We undertook a systematic review and ranked the existing evidence, at a subnational spatial scale, to investigate the potential geographical range of the parasite reservoir capable of infecting humans. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: After reviewing the published literature we identified potential host and vector species and ranked these based on how informative they are for the presence of an infectious parasite reservoir, based on current evidence. We collated spatial data on parasite occurrence and the ranges of the identified host and vector species. The ranked spatial data allowed us to assign an evidence score to 475 subnational areas in 19 countries and we present the results on a map of the Southeast and South Asia region. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have ranked subnational areas within the potential disease range according to evidence for presence of a disease risk to humans, providing geographical evidence to support decisions on prevention, management and prophylaxis. This work also highlights the unknown risk status of large parts of the region. Within this unknown category, our map identifies which areas have most evidence for the potential to support an infectious reservoir and are therefore a priority for further investigation. Furthermore we identify geographical areas where further investigation of putative host and vector species would be highly informative for the region-wide assessment.

Global spread of dengue virus types: mapping the 70 year history.

Since the first isolation of dengue virus (DENV) in 1943, four types have been identified. Global phenomena such as urbanization and international travel are key factors in facilitating the spread of dengue. Documenting the type-specific record of DENV spread has important implications for understanding patterns in dengue hyperendemicity and disease severity as well as vaccine design and deployment strategies. Existing studies have examined the spread of DENV types at regional or local scales, or described phylogeographic relationships within a single type. Here we summarize the global distribution of confirmed instances of each DENV type from 1943 to 2013 in a series of global maps. These show the worldwide expansion of the types, the expansion of disease hyperendemicity, and the establishment of an increasingly important infectious disease of global public health significance.

Global database of leishmaniasis occurrence locations, 1960-2012.

The leishmaniases are neglected tropical diseases of significant public health importance. However, information on their global occurrence is disparate and sparse. This database represents an attempt to collate reported leishmaniasis occurrences from 1960 to 2012. Methodology for the collection of data from the literature, abstraction of case locations and data processing procedures are described here. In addition, strain archives and online data resources were accessed. A total of 12,563 spatially and temporally unique occurrences of both cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis comprise the database, ranging in geographic scale from villages to states. These data can be used for a variety of mapping and spatial analyses covering multiple resolutions.

Melatonin: neuritogenesis and neuroprotective effects in crustacean x-organ cells.

Melatonin has both neuritogenic and neuroprotective effects in mammalian cell lines such as neuroblastoma cells. The mechanisms of action include receptor-coupled processes, direct binding and modulation of calmodulin and protein kinase C, and direct scavenging of free radicals. While melatonin is produced in invertebrates and has influences on their physiology and behavior, little is known about its mechanisms of action. We studied the influence of melatonin on neuritogenesis in well-differentiated, extensively-arborized crustacean x-organ neurosecretory neurons. Melatonin significantly increased neurite area in the first 24h of culture. The more physiological concentrations, 1 nM and 1 pM, increased area at 48 h also, whereas the pharmacological 1 µM concentration appeared to have desensitizing effects by this time. Luzindole, a vertebrate melatonin receptor antagonist, had surprising and significant agonist-like effects in these invertebrate cells. Melatonin receptors have not yet been studied in invertebrates. However, the presence of membrane-bound receptors in this population of crustacean neurons is indicated by this study. Melatonin also has significant neuroprotective effects, reversing the inhibition of neuritogenesis by 200 and 500 µM hydrogen peroxide. Because this is at least in part a direct action not requiring a receptor, melatonin's protection from oxidative stress is not surprisingly phylogenetically-conserved.