Declines over the last two decades of five intertidal invertebrate species in the western North Atlantic.

Climate change has already altered the environmental conditions of the world's oceans. Here we report declines in gastropod abundances and recruitment of mussels (Mytilus edulis) and barnacles (Semibalanus balanoides) over the last two decades that are correlated with changes in temperature and ocean conditions. Mussel recruitment is declining by 15.7% per year, barnacle recruitment by 5.0% per year, and abundances of three common gastropods are declining by an average of 3.1% per year (Testudinalia testudinalis, Littorina littorea, and Nucella lapillus). The declines in mussels and the common periwinkle (L. littorea) are correlated with warming sea temperatures and the declines in T. testudinalis and N. lapillus are correlated with aragonite saturation state, which affects rates of shell calcification. These species are common on shores throughout the North Atlantic and their loss is likely to lead to simplification of an important food web on rocky shores.

Variation in recruitment and the establishment of alternative community states.

Mussel beds and rockweed stands (fucoid algae) have been shown to be ilternative states on rocky intertidal shores in New England, and here the hypothesis that variation in recruitment provides opportunity for the development of alternative community states was tested. Disturbance by ice scour opens patches for development of alternative states, and in winter 1996-1997, 60 experimental clearings of differing sizes were established on Swan's Island, Maine, USA. Half of the plots were re-cleared during the winter of 2010-2011. Recruitment data for barnacles, mussels, and fucoid algae collected from 1997 to 2012 were used to (1) test for persistence of scale-dependent thresholds, (2) estimate the magnitudes and sources of variation, (3) fit a surface of alternative states as defined by the cusp catastrophe, and (4) test if 1997 recruitment would predict 2010-2011 recruitment in re-scraped plots (i.e., a test of divergence, which is expected in systems with alternative states). For barnacles and mussels, recruitment varied enormously year to year and among sites, but showed consistent patterns over the long-term with respect to clearing size. Average recruitment prior to re-clearing was a good predictor of recruitment afterwards. In contrast, over 50% of the variance in fucoid recruitment was unexplained with weak effects among years and locations. Past fucoid recruitment was a poor predictor of subsequent recruitment. The cusp analysis indicated that fucoid recruitment defines the alternative states. Fucoid recruitment was largely unpredictable and suggests long-term, small-scale priority effects drive the development of alternative states. These observations strongly reinforce the notion that long-term and well- replicated experiments are necessary to develop robust tests of ecological theory.

Hydrozoans and the shape of things to come.

The physiological mechanisms that regulate adaptive plasticity of clonal organisms are key to their success in changing environments. Here, we review the mechanisms that regulate morphological plasticity of colonial hydrozoans. There is a heritable, genetic basis to colony form, but environmentally-induced plasticity and self-reinforcing developmental physiology explain much of total phenotypic variance. Morphological development of colonial hydrozoans emerges from interactions among (1) behaviors which drive gastrovascular transport, (2) architecture of the gastrovascular system that determines hydrodynamic characteristics of vascular flow, and, (3) gene products that vary in response to physiological signals provided by gastrovascular transport. Several morphogenetic signaling mechanisms have been identified, including, reactive oxygen species and nutrient concentrations in the hydroplasm, and hydromechanical forces associated with gastrovascular transport. We present a conceptual model of the interacting forces that drive hydrozoan morphological development. Several avenues for future research are suggested by the synthesis of information from prior studies of hydrozoans. Elucidating the morphogenetic signaling pathways responsive to metabolites or hydromechanical forces and the epigenetic effect of vascular architecture on colony form may give new insight into the self-maintenance of indeterminately growing and continuously developing vascular systems.