Expert Consensus on Currently Accepted Measures of Harm.

BACKGROUND: Twenty-five years after the seminal work of the Harvard Medical Practice Study, the numbers and specific types of health care measures of harm have evolved and expanded. Using the World Café method to derive expert consensus, we sought to generate a contemporary list of triggers and adverse event measures that could be used for chart review to determine the current incidence of inpatient and outpatient adverse events. METHODS: We held a modified World Café event in March 2018, during which content experts were divided into 10 tables by clinical domain. After a focused discussion of a prepopulated list of literature-based triggers and measures relevant to that domain, they were asked to rate each measure on clinical importance and suitability for chart review and electronic extraction (very low, low, medium, high, very high). RESULTS: Seventy-one experts from 9 diverse institutions attended (primary acceptance rate, 72%). Of 525 total triggers and measures, 67% of 391 measures and 46% of 134 triggers were deemed to have high or very high clinical importance. For those triggers and measures with high or very high clinical importance, 218 overall were deemed to be highly amenable to chart review and 198 overall were deemed to be suitable for electronic surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: The World Café method effectively prioritized measures/triggers of high clinical importance including those that can be used in chart review, which is considered the gold standard. A future goal is to validate these measures using electronic surveillance mechanisms to decrease the need for chart review.

Estimating Time to Progression of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease With Tolerance.

We defined tolerance range as the distance of observing similar disease conditions or functional status from the upper to the lower boundaries of a specified time interval. A tolerance range was identified for linear regression and support vector machines to optimize the improvement rate (defined as IR) on accuracy in predicting mortality risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using clinical notes. The corpus includes pulmonary, cardiology, and radiology reports of 15,500 patients who died between 2011 and 2017. Their performance was compared against a long short-term memory recurrent neural network. The results demonstrate an overall improvement by those basic machine learning approaches after considering an optimal tolerance range: the average IR of linear regression was 90.1% and the maximum IR of support vector machines was 66.2%. There was a similitude between the time segments produced by our tolerance algorithms and those produced by the long short-term memory.