Uncertainty Quantification in Atomistic Modeling of Metals and Its Effect on Mesoscale and Continuum Modeling: A Review.

The design of next-generation alloys through the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach relies on multiscale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct. Atomistic methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) have been successful in predicting properties of never before studied compounds or phases. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of DFT and MD results is rarely reported due to computational and UQ methodology challenges. Over the past decade, studies that mitigate this gap have emerged. These advances are reviewed in the context of thermodynamic modeling and information exchange with mesoscale methods such as the phase-field method (PFM) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD). The importance of UQ is illustrated using properties of metals, with aluminum as an example, and highlighting deterministic, frequentist, and Bayesian methodologies. Challenges facing routine uncertainty quantification and an outlook on addressing them are also presented.

On the stochastic phase stability of Ti2AlC-Cr2AlC.

The quest towards expansion of the M n+1AX n design space has been accelerated with the recent discovery of several solid solution and ordered phases involving at least two M n+1AX n end members. Going beyond the nominal M n+1AX n compounds enables not only fine tuning of existing properties but also entirely new functionality. This search, however, has been mostly done through painstaking experiments as knowledge of the phase stability of the relevant systems is rather scarce. In this work, we report the first attempt to evaluate the finite-temperature pseudo-binary phase diagram of the Ti2AlC-Cr2AlC via first-principles-guided Bayesian CALPHAD framework that accounts for uncertainties not only in ab initio calculations and thermodynamic models but also in synthesis conditions in reported experiments. The phase stability analyses are shown to have good agreement with previous experiments. The work points towards a promising way of investigating phase stability in other MAX Phase systems providing the knowledge necessary to elucidate possible synthesis routes for M n+1AX n systems with unprecedented properties.