ABSTRACT
Infectious diseases stem from disrupted interactions among hosts, parasites, and the environment. Both abiotic and biotic factors can influence infection outcomes by shaping the abundance of a parasite's infective stages, as well as the host's ability to fight infection. However, disentangling these mechanisms within natural ecosystems remains challenging. Here, combining environmental DNA analysis and niche modelling at a regional scale, we uncovered the biotic and abiotic drivers of an infectious disease of salmonid fish, triggered by the parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae. We found that the occurrence and abundance of the parasite in the water-i.e., the propagule pressure- were mainly correlated to the abundances of its two primary hosts, the bryozoan Fredericella sultana and the fish Salmo trutta, but poorly to local abiotic environmental stressors. In contrast, the occurrence and abundance of parasites within fish hosts-i.e., proxies for disease emergence-were closely linked to environmental stressors (water temperature, agricultural activities, dams), and to a lesser extent to parasite propagule pressure. These results suggest that pathogen distribution alone cannot predict the risk of disease in wildlife, and that local anthropogenic stressors may play a pivotal role in disease emergence among wild host populations, likely by modulating the hosts' immune response. Our study sheds light on the intricate interplay between biotic and abiotic factors in shaping pathogen distribution and raises concerns about the effects of global change on pathogen emergence.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In species showing partial migration, as is the case for many salmonid fishes, it is important to assess how anthropogenic pressure experienced by migrating individuals affects the total population. We focused on brown trout (Salmo trutta) from the Guddal River in the Norwegian Hardanger Fjord system, which encompasses both resident and anadromous individuals. Aquaculture has led to increased anthropogenic pressure on brown trout during the marine phase in this region. Fish traps in the Guddal River allow for sampling all ascending anadromous spawners and descending smolts. We analyzed microsatellite DNA markers from all individuals ascending in 2006-2016, along with all emigrating smolts in 2017. We investigated (1) if there was evidence for declines in census numbers and effective population size during that period, (2) if there was association between kinship and migration timing in smolts and anadromous adults, and (3) to what extent resident trout were parents of outmigrating smolts. RESULTS: Census counts of anadromous spawners showed no evidence for a decline from 2006 to 2016, but were lower than in 2000-2005. Estimates of effective population size also showed no trends of declines during the study period. Sibship reconstruction of the 2017 smolt run showed significant association between kinship and migration timing, and a similar association was indicated in anadromous spawners. Parentage assignment of 2017 smolts with ascending anadromous trout as candidate parents, and assuming that unknown parents represented resident trout, showed that 70% of smolts had at least one resident parent and 24% had two resident parents. CONCLUSIONS: The results bear evidence of a population that after an initial decline has stabilized at a lower number of anadromous spawners. The significant association between kinship and migration timing in smolts suggests that specific episodes of elevated mortality in the sea could disproportionally affect some families and reduce overall effective population size. Finally, the results based on parentage assignment demonstrate a strong buffering effect of resident trout in case of elevated marine mortality affecting anadromous trout, but also highlight that increased mortality of anadromous trout, most of which are females, may lower overall production in the system.
