Alterations of Functional Connectivity Dynamics in Affective and Psychotic Disorders.

BACKGROUND: Psychosis and depression patients exhibit widespread neurobiological abnormalities. The analysis of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), allows for the detection of changes in complex brain activity patterns, providing insights into common and unique processes underlying these disorders. METHODS: In the present study, we report the analysis of dFC in a large patient sample including 127 clinical high-risk patients (CHR), 142 recent-onset psychosis (ROP) patients, 134 recent-onset depression (ROD) patients, and 256 healthy controls (HC). A sliding window-based technique was used to calculate the time-dependent FC in resting-state MRI data, followed by clustering to reveal recurrent FC states in each diagnostic group. RESULTS: We identified five unique FC states, which could be identified in all groups with high consistency (rmean = 0.889, sd = 0.116). Analysis of dynamic parameters of these states showed a characteristic increase in the lifetime and frequency of a weakly-connected FC state in ROD patients (p < 0.0005) compared to most other groups, and a common increase in the lifetime of a FC state characterised by high sensorimotor and cingulo-opercular connectivities in all patient groups compared to the HC group (p < 0.0002). Canonical correlation analysis revealed a mode which exhibited significant correlations between dFC parameters and clinical variables (r = 0.617, p < 0.0029), which was associated with positive psychosis symptom severity and several dFC parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate diagnosis-specific alterations of dFC and underline the potential of dynamic analysis to characterize disorders such as depression, psychosis and clinical risk states.

Transdiagnostic subgroups of cognitive impairment in early affective and psychotic illness.

Cognitively impaired and spared patient subgroups were identified in psychosis and depression, and in clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Studies suggest differences in underlying brain structural and functional characteristics. It is unclear whether cognitive subgroups are transdiagnostic phenomena in early stages of psychotic and affective disorder which can be validated on the neural level. Patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP; N = 140; female = 54), recent-onset depression (ROD; N = 130; female = 73), CHR (N = 128; female = 61) and healthy controls (HC; N = 270; female = 165) were recruited through the multi-site study PRONIA. The transdiagnostic sample and individual study groups were clustered into subgroups based on their performance in eight cognitive domains and characterized by gray matter volume (sMRI) and resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) using support vector machine (SVM) classification. We identified an impaired subgroup (NROP = 79, NROD = 30, NCHR = 37) showing cognitive impairment in executive functioning, working memory, processing speed and verbal learning (all p < 0.001). A spared subgroup (NROP = 61, NROD = 100, NCHR = 91) performed comparable to HC. Single-disease subgroups indicated that cognitive impairment is stronger pronounced in impaired ROP compared to impaired ROD and CHR. Subgroups in ROP and ROD showed specific symptom- and functioning-patterns. rsFC showed superior accuracy compared to sMRI in differentiating transdiagnostic subgroups from HC (BACimpaired = 58.5%; BACspared = 61.7%, both: p < 0.01). Cognitive findings were validated in the PRONIA replication sample (N = 409). Individual cognitive subgroups in ROP, ROD and CHR are more informative than transdiagnostic subgroups as they map onto individual cognitive impairment and specific functioning- and symptom-patterns which show limited overlap in sMRI and rsFC. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME: German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS). Clinical trial registry URL: https://www.drks.de/drks_web/ . Clinical trial registry number: DRKS00005042.

Structural and Functional Brain Patterns Predict Formal Thought Disorder's Severity and Its Persistence in Recent-Onset Psychosis: Results From the PRONIA Study.

BACKGROUND: Formal thought disorder (FThD) is a core feature of psychosis, and its severity and long-term persistence relates to poor clinical outcomes. However, advances in developing early recognition and management tools for FThD are hindered by a lack of insight into the brain-level predictors of FThD states and progression at the individual level. METHODS: Two hundred thirty-three individuals with recent-onset psychosis were drawn from the multisite European Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management study. Support vector machine classifiers were trained within a cross-validation framework to separate two FThD symptom-based subgroups (high vs. low FThD severity), using cross-sectional whole-brain multiband fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations, gray matter volume and white matter volume data. Moreover, we trained machine learning models on these neuroimaging readouts to predict the persistence of high FThD subgroup membership from baseline to 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, multivariate patterns of gray matter volume within the salience, dorsal attention, visual, and ventral attention networks separated the FThD severity subgroups (balanced accuracy [BAC] = 60.8%). Longitudinally, distributed activations/deactivations within all fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuation sub-bands (BACslow-5 = 73.2%, BACslow-4 = 72.9%, BACslow-3 = 68.0%), gray matter volume patterns overlapping with the cross-sectional ones (BAC = 62.7%), and smaller frontal white matter volume (BAC = 73.1%) predicted the persistence of high FThD severity from baseline to follow-up, with a combined multimodal balanced accuracy of BAC = 77%. CONCLUSIONS: We report the first evidence of brain structural and functional patterns predictive of FThD severity and persistence in early psychosis. These findings open up avenues for the development of neuroimaging-based diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment options for the early recognition and management of FThD and associated poor outcomes.

Psychosis brain subtypes validated in first-episode cohorts and related to illness remission: results from the PHENOM consortium.

Using machine learning, we recently decomposed the neuroanatomical heterogeneity of established schizophrenia to discover two volumetric subgroups-a 'lower brain volume' subgroup (SG1) and an 'higher striatal volume' subgroup (SG2) with otherwise normal brain structure. In this study, we investigated whether the MRI signatures of these subgroups were also already present at the time of the first-episode of psychosis (FEP) and whether they were related to clinical presentation and clinical remission over 1-, 3-, and 5-years. We included 572 FEP and 424 healthy controls (HC) from 4 sites (Sao Paulo, Santander, London, Melbourne) of the PHENOM consortium. Our prior MRI subgrouping models (671 participants; USA, Germany, and China) were applied to both FEP and HC. Participants were assigned into 1 of 4 categories: subgroup 1 (SG1), subgroup 2 (SG2), no subgroup membership ('None'), and mixed SG1 + SG2 subgroups ('Mixed'). Voxel-wise analyses characterized SG1 and SG2 subgroups. Supervised machine learning analyses characterized baseline and remission signatures related to SG1 and SG2 membership. The two dominant patterns of 'lower brain volume' in SG1 and 'higher striatal volume' (with otherwise normal neuromorphology) in SG2 were identified already at the first episode of psychosis. SG1 had a significantly higher proportion of FEP (32%) vs. HC (19%) than SG2 (FEP, 21%; HC, 23%). Clinical multivariate signatures separated the SG1 and SG2 subgroups (balanced accuracy = 64%; p < 0.0001), with SG2 showing higher education but also greater positive psychosis symptoms at first presentation, and an association with symptom remission at 1-year, 5-year, and when timepoints were combined. Neuromorphological subtypes of schizophrenia are already evident at illness onset, separated by distinct clinical presentations, and differentially associated with subsequent remission. These results suggest that the subgroups may be underlying risk phenotypes that could be targeted in future treatment trials and are critical to consider when interpreting neuroimaging literature.

Assessment of Neuroanatomical Endophenotypes of Autism Spectrum Disorder and Association With Characteristics of Individuals With Schizophrenia and the General Population.

Importance: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is associated with significant clinical, neuroanatomical, and genetic heterogeneity that limits precision diagnostics and treatment. Objective: To assess distinct neuroanatomical dimensions of ASD using novel semisupervised machine learning methods and to test whether the dimensions can serve as endophenotypes also in non-ASD populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used imaging data from the publicly available Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) repositories as the discovery cohort. The ABIDE sample included individuals diagnosed with ASD aged between 16 and 64 years and age- and sex-match typically developing individuals. Validation cohorts included individuals with schizophrenia from the Psychosis Heterogeneity Evaluated via Dimensional Neuroimaging (PHENOM) consortium and individuals from the UK Biobank to represent the general population. The multisite discovery cohort included 16 internationally distributed imaging sites. Analyses were performed between March 2021 and March 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: The trained semisupervised heterogeneity through discriminative analysis models were tested for reproducibility using extensive cross-validations. It was then applied to individuals from the PHENOM and the UK Biobank. It was hypothesized that neuroanatomical dimensions of ASD would display distinct clinical and genetic profiles and would be prominent also in non-ASD populations. Results: Heterogeneity through discriminative analysis models trained on T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance images of 307 individuals with ASD (mean [SD] age, 25.4 [9.8] years; 273 [88.9%] male) and 362 typically developing control individuals (mean [SD] age, 25.8 [8.9] years; 309 [85.4%] male) revealed that a 3-dimensional scheme was optimal to capture the ASD neuroanatomy. The first dimension (A1: aginglike) was associated with smaller brain volume, lower cognitive function, and aging-related genetic variants (FOXO3; Z = 4.65; P = 1.62 × 10-6). The second dimension (A2: schizophrenialike) was characterized by enlarged subcortical volumes, antipsychotic medication use (Cohen d = 0.65; false discovery rate-adjusted P = .048), partially overlapping genetic, neuroanatomical characteristics to schizophrenia (n = 307), and significant genetic heritability estimates in the general population (n = 14 786; mean [SD] h2, 0.71 [0.04]; P < 1 × 10-4). The third dimension (A3: typical ASD) was distinguished by enlarged cortical volumes, high nonverbal cognitive performance, and biological pathways implicating brain development and abnormal apoptosis (mean [SD] ß, 0.83 [0.02]; P = 4.22 × 10-6). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study discovered 3-dimensional endophenotypic representation that may elucidate the heterogeneous neurobiological underpinnings of ASD to support precision diagnostics. The significant correspondence between A2 and schizophrenia indicates a possibility of identifying common biological mechanisms across the 2 mental health diagnoses.

Multimodal predictions of treatment outcome in major depression: A comparison of data-driven predictors with importance ratings by clinicians.

BACKGROUND: Reliable prediction models of treatment outcome in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are currently lacking in clinical practice. Data-driven outcome definitions, combining data from multiple modalities and incorporating clinician expertise might improve predictions. METHODS: We used unsupervised machine learning to identify treatment outcome classes in 1060 MDD inpatients. Subsequently, classification models were created on clinical and biological baseline information to predict treatment outcome classes and compared to the performance of two widely used classical outcome definitions. We also related the findings to results from an online survey that assessed which information clinicians use for outcome prognosis. RESULTS: Three and four outcome classes were identified by unsupervised learning. However, data-driven outcome classes did not result in more accurate prediction models. The best prediction model was targeting treatment response in its standard definition and reached accuracies of 63.9 % in the test sample, and 59.5 % and 56.9 % in the validation samples. Top predictors included sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, while biological parameters did not improve prediction accuracies. Treatment history, personality factors, prior course of the disorder, and patient attitude towards treatment were ranked as most important indicators by clinicians. LIMITATIONS: Missing data limited the power to identify biological predictors of treatment outcome from certain modalities. CONCLUSIONS: So far, the inclusion of available biological measures in addition to psychometric and clinical information did not improve predictive value of the models, which was overall low. Optimized biomarkers, stratified predictions and the inclusion of clinical expertise may improve future prediction models.

The impact of visual dysfunctions in recent-onset psychosis and clinical high-risk state for psychosis.

Subtle subjective visual dysfunctions (VisDys) are reported by about 50% of patients with schizophrenia and are suggested to predict psychosis states. Deeper insight into VisDys, particularly in early psychosis states, could foster the understanding of basic disease mechanisms mediating susceptibility to psychosis, and thereby inform preventive interventions. We systematically investigated the relationship between VisDys and core clinical measures across three early phase psychiatric conditions. Second, we used a novel multivariate pattern analysis approach to predict VisDys by resting-state functional connectivity within relevant brain systems. VisDys assessed with the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A), clinical measures, and resting-state fMRI data were examined in recent-onset psychosis (ROP, n = 147), clinical high-risk states of psychosis (CHR, n = 143), recent-onset depression (ROD, n = 151), and healthy controls (HC, n = 280). Our multivariate pattern analysis approach used pairwise functional connectivity within occipital (ON) and frontoparietal (FPN) networks implicated in visual information processing to predict VisDys. VisDys were reported more often in ROP (50.34%), and CHR (55.94%) than in ROD (16.56%), and HC (4.28%). Higher severity of VisDys was associated with less functional remission in both CHR and ROP, and, in CHR specifically, lower quality of life (Qol), higher depressiveness, and more severe impairment of visuospatial constructability. ON functional connectivity predicted presence of VisDys in ROP (balanced accuracy 60.17%, p = 0.0001) and CHR (67.38%, p = 0.029), while in the combined ROP + CHR sample VisDys were predicted by FPN (61.11%, p = 0.006). These large-sample study findings suggest that VisDys are clinically highly relevant not only in ROP but especially in CHR, being closely related to aspects of functional outcome, depressiveness, and Qol. Findings from multivariate pattern analysis support a model of functional integrity within ON and FPN driving the VisDys phenomenon and being implicated in core disease mechanisms of early psychosis states.

Exploring Links Between Psychosis and Frontotemporal Dementia Using Multimodal Machine Learning: Dementia Praecox Revisited.

Importance: The behavioral and cognitive symptoms of severe psychotic disorders overlap with those seen in dementia. However, shared brain alterations remain disputed, and their relevance for patients in at-risk disease stages has not been explored so far. Objective: To use machine learning to compare the expression of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patterns of behavioral-variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), Alzheimer disease (AD), and schizophrenia; estimate predictability in patients with bvFTD and schizophrenia based on sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data; and examine prognostic value, genetic underpinnings, and progression in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states for psychosis or recent-onset depression (ROD). Design, Setting, and Participants: This study included 1870 individuals from 5 cohorts, including (1) patients with bvFTD (n = 108), established AD (n = 44), mild cognitive impairment or early-stage AD (n = 96), schizophrenia (n = 157), or major depression (n = 102) to derive and compare diagnostic patterns and (2) patients with CHR (n = 160) or ROD (n = 161) to test patterns' prognostic relevance and progression. Healthy individuals (n = 1042) were used for age-related and cohort-related data calibration. Data were collected from January 1996 to July 2019 and analyzed between April 2020 and April 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Case assignments based on diagnostic patterns; sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data; 2-year functional outcomes and genetic separability of patients with CHR and ROD with high vs low pattern expression; and pattern progression from baseline to follow-up MRI scans in patients with nonrecovery vs preserved recovery. Results: Of 1870 included patients, 902 (48.2%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 38.0 (19.3) years. The bvFTD pattern comprising prefrontal, insular, and limbic volume reductions was more expressed in patients with schizophrenia (65 of 157 [41.2%]) and major depression (22 of 102 [21.6%]) than the temporo-limbic AD patterns (28 of 157 [17.8%] and 3 of 102 [2.9%], respectively). bvFTD expression was predicted by high body mass index, psychomotor slowing, affective disinhibition, and paranoid ideation (R2 = 0.11). The schizophrenia pattern was expressed in 92 of 108 patients (85.5%) with bvFTD and was linked to the C9orf72 variant, oligoclonal banding in the cerebrospinal fluid, cognitive impairment, and younger age (R2 = 0.29). bvFTD and schizophrenia pattern expressions forecasted 2-year psychosocial impairments in patients with CHR and were predicted by polygenic risk scores for frontotemporal dementia, AD, and schizophrenia. Findings were not associated with AD or accelerated brain aging. Finally, 1-year bvFTD/schizophrenia pattern progression distinguished patients with nonrecovery from those with preserved recovery. Conclusions and Relevance: Neurobiological links may exist between bvFTD and psychosis focusing on prefrontal and salience system alterations. Further transdiagnostic investigations are needed to identify shared pathophysiological processes underlying the neuroanatomical interface between the 2 disease spectra.

Clinical, Brain, and Multilevel Clustering in Early Psychosis and Affective Stages.

Importance: Approaches are needed to stratify individuals in early psychosis stages beyond positive symptom severity to investigate specificity related to affective and normative variation and to validate solutions with premorbid, longitudinal, and genetic risk measures. Objective: To use machine learning techniques to cluster, compare, and combine subgroup solutions using clinical and brain structural imaging data from early psychosis and depression stages. Design, Setting, and Participants: A multisite, naturalistic, longitudinal cohort study (10 sites in 5 European countries; including major follow-up intervals at 9 and 18 months) with a referred patient sample of those with clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), recent-onset psychosis (ROP), recent-onset depression (ROD), and healthy controls were recruited between February 1, 2014, to July 1, 2019. Data were analyzed between January 2020 and January 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: A nonnegative matrix factorization technique separately decomposed clinical (287 variables) and parcellated brain structural volume (204 gray, white, and cerebrospinal fluid regions) data across CHR-P, ROP, ROD, and healthy controls study groups. Stability criteria determined cluster number using nested cross-validation. Validation targets were compared across subgroup solutions (premorbid, longitudinal, and schizophrenia polygenic risk scores). Multiclass supervised machine learning produced a transferable solution to the validation sample. Results: There were a total of 749 individuals in the discovery group and 610 individuals in the validation group. Individuals included those with CHR-P (n = 287), ROP (n = 323), ROD (n = 285), and healthy controls (n = 464), The mean (SD) age was 25.1 (5.9) years, and 702 (51.7%) were female. A clinical 4-dimensional solution separated individuals based on positive symptoms, negative symptoms, depression, and functioning, demonstrating associations with all validation targets. Brain clustering revealed a subgroup with distributed brain volume reductions associated with negative symptoms, reduced performance IQ, and increased schizophrenia polygenic risk scores. Multilevel results distinguished between normative and illness-related brain differences. Subgroup results were largely validated in the external sample. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this longitudinal cohort study provide stratifications beyond the expression of positive symptoms that cut across illness stages and diagnoses. Clinical results suggest the importance of negative symptoms, depression, and functioning. Brain results suggest substantial overlap across illness stages and normative variation, which may highlight a vulnerability signature independent from specific presentations. Premorbid, longitudinal, and genetic risk validation suggested clinical importance of the subgroups to preventive treatments.

Schizophrenia Imaging Signatures and Their Associations With Cognition, Psychopathology, and Genetics in the General Population.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence and significance of schizophrenia-related phenotypes at the population level is debated in the literature. Here, the authors assessed whether two recently reported neuroanatomical signatures of schizophrenia-signature 1, with widespread reduction of gray matter volume, and signature 2, with increased striatal volume-could be replicated in an independent schizophrenia sample, and investigated whether expression of these signatures can be detected at the population level and how they relate to cognition, psychosis spectrum symptoms, and schizophrenia genetic risk. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used an independent schizophrenia-control sample (N=347; ages 16-57 years) for replication of imaging signatures, and then examined two independent population-level data sets: typically developing youths and youths with psychosis spectrum symptoms in the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (N=359; ages 16-23 years) and adults in the UK Biobank study (N=836; ages 44-50 years). The authors quantified signature expression using support-vector machine learning and compared cognition, psychopathology, and polygenic risk between signatures. RESULTS: Two neuroanatomical signatures of schizophrenia were replicated. Signature 1 but not signature 2 was significantly more common in youths with psychosis spectrum symptoms than in typically developing youths, whereas signature 2 frequency was similar in the two groups. In both youths and adults, signature 1 was associated with worse cognitive performance than signature 2. Compared with adults with neither signature, adults expressing signature 1 had elevated schizophrenia polygenic risk scores, but this was not seen for signature 2. CONCLUSIONS: The authors successfully replicated two neuroanatomical signatures of schizophrenia and describe their prevalence in population-based samples of youths and adults. They further demonstrated distinct relationships of these signatures with psychosis symptoms, cognition, and genetic risk, potentially reflecting underlying neurobiological vulnerability.

The clinical relevance of formal thought disorder in the early stages of psychosis: results from the PRONIA study.

BACKGROUND: Formal thought disorder (FTD) has been associated with more severe illness courses and functional deficits in patients with psychotic disorders. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of FTD characterises a specific subgroup of patients showing more prominent illness severity, neurocognitive and functional impairments. This study aimed to identify stable and generalizable FTD-subgroups of patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) by applying a comprehensive data-driven clustering approach and to test the validity of these subgroups by assessing associations between this FTD-related stratification, social and occupational functioning, and neurocognition. METHODS: 279 patients with ROP were recruited as part of the multi-site European PRONIA study (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management; www.pronia.eu). Five FTD-related symptoms (conceptual disorganization, poverty of content of speech, difficulty in abstract thinking, increased latency of response and poverty of speech) were assessed with Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS) and the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS). RESULTS: The results with two patient subgroups showing different levels of FTD were the most stable and generalizable clustering solution (predicted clustering strength value = 0.86). FTD-High subgroup had lower scores in social (pfdr < 0.001) and role (pfdr < 0.001) functioning, as well as worse neurocognitive performance in semantic (pfdr < 0.001) and phonological verbal fluency (pfdr < 0.001), short-term verbal memory (pfdr = 0.002) and abstract thinking (pfdr = 0.010), in comparison to FTD-Low group. CONCLUSIONS: Clustering techniques allowed us to identify patients with more pronounced FTD showing more severe deficits in functioning and neurocognition, thus suggesting that FTD may be a relevant marker of illness severity in the early psychosis pathway.

Novel Gyrification Networks Reveal Links with Psychiatric Risk Factors in Early Illness.

Adult gyrification provides a window into coordinated early neurodevelopment when disruptions predispose individuals to psychiatric illness. We hypothesized that the echoes of such disruptions should be observed within structural gyrification networks in early psychiatric illness that would demonstrate associations with developmentally relevant variables rather than specific psychiatric symptoms. We employed a new data-driven method (Orthogonal Projective Non-Negative Matrix Factorization) to delineate novel gyrification-based networks of structural covariance in 308 healthy controls. Gyrification within the networks was then compared to 713 patients with recent onset psychosis or depression, and at clinical high-risk. Associations with diagnosis, symptoms, cognition, and functioning were investigated using linear models. Results demonstrated 18 novel gyrification networks in controls as verified by internal and external validation. Gyrification was reduced in patients in temporal-insular, lateral occipital, and lateral fronto-parietal networks (pFDR < 0.01) and was not moderated by illness group. Higher gyrification was associated with better cognitive performance and lifetime role functioning, but not with symptoms. The findings demonstrated that gyrification can be parsed into novel brain networks that highlight generalized illness effects linked to developmental vulnerability. When combined, our study widens the window into the etiology of psychiatric risk and its expression in adulthood.

Multi-scale semi-supervised clustering of brain images: Deriving disease subtypes.

Disease heterogeneity is a significant obstacle to understanding pathological processes and delivering precision diagnostics and treatment. Clustering methods have gained popularity for stratifying patients into subpopulations (i.e., subtypes) of brain diseases using imaging data. However, unsupervised clustering approaches are often confounded by anatomical and functional variations not related to a disease or pathology of interest. Semi-supervised clustering techniques have been proposed to overcome this and, therefore, capture disease-specific patterns more effectively. An additional limitation of both unsupervised and semi-supervised conventional machine learning methods is that they typically model, learn and infer from data using a basis of feature sets pre-defined at a fixed anatomical or functional scale (e.g., atlas-based regions of interest). Herein we propose a novel method, "Multi-scAle heteroGeneity analysIs and Clustering" (MAGIC), to depict the multi-scale presentation of disease heterogeneity, which builds on a previously proposed semi-supervised clustering method, HYDRA. It derives multi-scale and clinically interpretable feature representations and exploits a double-cyclic optimization procedure to effectively drive identification of inter-scale-consistent disease subtypes. More importantly, to understand the conditions under which the clustering model can estimate true heterogeneity related to diseases, we conducted extensive and systematic semi-simulated experiments to evaluate the proposed method on a sizeable healthy control sample from the UK Biobank (N = 4403). We then applied MAGIC to imaging data from Alzheimer's disease (ADNI, N = 1728) and schizophrenia (PHENOM, N = 1166) patients to demonstrate its potential and challenges in dissecting the neuroanatomical heterogeneity of common brain diseases. Taken together, we aim to provide guidance regarding when such analyses can succeed or should be taken with caution. The code of the proposed method is publicly available at https://github.com/anbai106/MAGIC.

Toward Generalizable and Transdiagnostic Tools for Psychosis Prediction: An Independent Validation and Improvement of the NAPLS-2 Risk Calculator in the Multisite PRONIA Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Transition to psychosis is among the most adverse outcomes of clinical high-risk (CHR) syndromes encompassing ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom states. Clinical risk calculators may facilitate an early and individualized interception of psychosis, but their real-world implementation requires thorough validation across diverse risk populations, including young patients with depressive syndromes. METHODS: We validated the previously described NAPLS-2 (North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study 2) calculator in 334 patients (26 with transition to psychosis) with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) drawn from the multisite European PRONIA (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management) study. Patients were categorized into three risk enrichment levels, ranging from UHR, over CHR, to a broad-risk population comprising patients with CHR or ROD (CHR|ROD). We assessed how risk enrichment and different predictive algorithms influenced prognostic performance using reciprocal external validation. RESULTS: After calibration, the NAPLS-2 model predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy (BAC) (sensitivity, specificity) of 68% (73%, 63%) in the PRONIA-UHR cohort, 67% (74%, 60%) in the CHR cohort, and 70% (73%, 66%) in patients with CHR|ROD. Multiple model derivation in PRONIA-CHR|ROD and validation in NAPLS-2-UHR patients confirmed that broader risk definitions produced more accurate risk calculators (CHR|ROD-based vs. UHR-based performance: 67% [68%, 66%] vs. 58% [61%, 56%]). Support vector machines were superior in CHR|ROD (BAC = 71%), while ridge logistic regression and support vector machines performed similarly in CHR (BAC = 67%) and UHR cohorts (BAC = 65%). Attenuated psychotic symptoms predicted psychosis across risk levels, while younger age and reduced processing speed became increasingly relevant for broader risk cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical-neurocognitive machine learning models operating in young patients with affective and CHR syndromes facilitate a more precise and generalizable prediction of psychosis. Future studies should investigate their therapeutic utility in large-scale clinical trials.

The progression of disorder-specific brain pattern expression in schizophrenia over 9 years.

Age plays a crucial role in the performance of schizophrenia vs. controls (SZ-HC) neuroimaging-based machine learning (ML) models as the accuracy of identifying first-episode psychosis from controls is poor compared to chronic patients. Resolving whether this finding reflects longitudinal progression in a disorder-specific brain pattern or a systematic but non-disorder-specific deviation from a normal brain aging (BA) trajectory in schizophrenia would help the clinical translation of diagnostic ML models. We trained two ML models on structural MRI data: an SZ-HC model based on 70 schizophrenia patients and 74 controls and a BA model (based on 561 healthy individuals, age range = 66 years). We then investigated the two models' predictions in the naturalistic longitudinal Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC1966) following 29 schizophrenia and 61 controls for nine years. The SZ-HC model's schizophrenia-specificity was further assessed by utilizing independent validation (62 schizophrenia, 95 controls) and depression samples (203 depression, 203 controls). We found better performance at the NFBC1966 follow-up (sensitivity = 75.9%, specificity = 83.6%) compared to the baseline (sensitivity = 58.6%, specificity = 86.9%). This finding resulted from progression in disorder-specific pattern expression in schizophrenia and was not explained by concomitant acceleration of brain aging. The disorder-specific pattern's progression reflected longitudinal changes in cognition, outcomes, and local brain changes, while BA captured treatment-related and global brain alterations. The SZ-HC model was also generalizable to independent schizophrenia validation samples but classified depression as control subjects. Our research underlines the importance of taking account of longitudinal progression in a disorder-specific pattern in schizophrenia when developing ML classifiers for different age groups.

Multimodal prognosis of negative symptom severity in individuals at increased risk of developing psychosis.

Negative symptoms occur frequently in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and contribute to functional impairments. The aim of this study was to predict negative symptom severity in CHR after 9 months. Predictive models either included baseline negative symptoms measured with the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS-N), whole-brain gyrification, or both to forecast negative symptoms of at least moderate severity in 94 CHR. We also conducted sequential risk stratification to stratify CHR into different risk groups based on the SIPS-N and gyrification model. Additionally, we assessed the models' ability to predict functional outcomes in CHR and their transdiagnostic generalizability to predict negative symptoms in 96 patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) and 97 patients with recent-onset depression (ROD). Baseline SIPS-N and gyrification predicted moderate/severe negative symptoms with significant balanced accuracies of 68 and 62%, while the combined model achieved 73% accuracy. Sequential risk stratification stratified CHR into a high (83%), medium (40-64%), and low (19%) risk group regarding their risk of having moderate/severe negative symptoms at 9 months follow-up. The baseline SIPS-N model was also able to predict social (61%), but not role functioning (59%) at above-chance accuracies, whereas the gyrification model achieved significant accuracies in predicting both social (76%) and role (74%) functioning in CHR. Finally, only the baseline SIPS-N model showed transdiagnostic generalization to ROP (63%). This study delivers a multimodal prognostic model to identify those CHR with a clinically relevant negative symptom severity and functional impairments, potentially requiring further therapeutic consideration.

Cognitive subtypes in recent onset psychosis: distinct neurobiological fingerprints?

In schizophrenia, neurocognitive subtypes can be distinguished based on cognitive performance and they are associated with neuroanatomical alterations. We investigated the existence of cognitive subtypes in shortly medicated recent onset psychosis patients, their underlying gray matter volume patterns and clinical characteristics. We used a K-means algorithm to cluster 108 psychosis patients from the multi-site EU PRONIA (Prognostic tools for early psychosis management) study based on cognitive performance and validated the solution independently (N = 53). Cognitive subgroups and healthy controls (HC; n = 195) were classified based on gray matter volume (GMV) using Support Vector Machine classification. A cognitively spared (N = 67) and impaired (N = 41) subgroup were revealed and partially independently validated (Nspared = 40, Nimpaired = 13). Impaired patients showed significantly increased negative symptomatology (pfdr = 0.003), reduced cognitive performance (pfdr < 0.001) and general functioning (pfdr < 0.035) in comparison to spared patients. Neurocognitive deficits of the impaired subgroup persist in both discovery and validation sample across several domains, including verbal memory and processing speed. A GMV pattern (balanced accuracy = 60.1%, p = 0.01) separating impaired patients from HC revealed increases and decreases across several fronto-temporal-parietal brain areas, including basal ganglia and cerebellum. Cognitive and functional disturbances alongside brain morphological changes in the impaired subgroup are consistent with a neurodevelopmental origin of psychosis. Our findings emphasize the relevance of tailored intervention early in the course of psychosis for patients suffering from the likely stronger neurodevelopmental character of the disease.

Multimodal Machine Learning Workflows for Prediction of Psychosis in Patients With Clinical High-Risk Syndromes and Recent-Onset Depression.

Importance: Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear. Objectives: To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems. Results: A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.

The Psychopathology and Neuroanatomical Markers of Depression in Early Psychosis.

Depression frequently occurs in first-episode psychosis (FEP) and predicts longer-term negative outcomes. It is possible that this depression is seen primarily in a distinct subgroup, which if identified could allow targeted treatments. We hypothesize that patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) and comorbid depression would be identifiable by symptoms and neuroanatomical features similar to those seen in recent-onset depression (ROD). Data were extracted from the multisite PRONIA study: 154 ROP patients (FEP within 3 months of treatment onset), of whom 83 were depressed (ROP+D) and 71 who were not depressed (ROP-D), 146 ROD patients, and 265 healthy controls (HC). Analyses included a (1) principal component analysis that established the similar symptom structure of depression in ROD and ROP+D, (2) supervised machine learning (ML) classification with repeated nested cross-validation based on depressive symptoms separating ROD vs ROP+D, which achieved a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 51%, and (3) neuroanatomical ML-based classification, using regions of interest generated from ROD subjects, which identified BAC of 50% (no better than chance) for separation of ROP+D vs ROP-D. We conclude that depression at a symptom level is broadly similar with or without psychosis status in recent-onset disorders; however, this is not driven by a separable depressed subgroup in FEP. Depression may be intrinsic to early stages of psychotic disorder, and thus treating depression could produce widespread benefit.