A Spatial Signal of Niche Differentiation in Tropical Forests.

AbstractExplaining diversity in tropical forests remains a challenge in community ecology. Theory tells us that species differences can stabilize communities by reducing competition, while species similarities can promote diversity by reducing fitness differences and thus prolonging the time to competitive exclusion. Combined, these processes may lead to clustering of species such that species are niche differentiated across clusters and share a niche within each cluster. Here, we characterize this partial niche differentiation in a tropical forest in Panama by measuring spatial clustering of woody plants and relating these clusters to local soil conditions. We find that species were spatially clustered and the clusters were associated with specific concentrations of soil nutrients, reflecting the existence of nutrient niches. Species were almost twice as likely to recruit in their own nutrient niche. A decision tree algorithm showed that local soil conditions correctly predicted the niche of the trees with up to 85% accuracy. Iron, zinc, phosphorus, manganese, and soil pH were among the best predictors of species clusters.

Genomic insights into isolation of the threatened Florida crested caracara (Caracara plancus).

We conducted a population genomic study of the crested caracara (Caracara plancus) using samples (n = 290) collected from individuals in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, United States. Crested caracaras are non-migratory raptors ranging from the southern tip of South America to the southern United States, including a federally protected relict population in Florida long thought to have been isolated since the last ice age. Our objectives were to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure of Florida's apparently isolated population and to evaluate taxonomic relationships of crested caracaras at the northern edge of their range. Using DNA purified from blood samples, we conducted double-digest restriction site associated DNA sequencing and sequenced the mitochondrial ND2 gene. Analyses of population structure using over 9,000 SNPs suggest that two major clusters are best supported, one cluster including only Florida individuals and the other cluster including Arizona and Texas individuals. Both SNPs and mitochondrial haplotypes reveal the Florida population to be highly differentiated genetically from Arizona and Texas populations, whereas, Arizona and Texas populations are moderately differentiated from each other. The Florida population's mitochondrial haplotypes form a separate monophyletic group, while Arizona and Texas populations share mitochondrial haplotypes. Results of this study provide substantial genetic evidence that Florida's crested caracaras have experienced long-term isolation from caracaras in Arizona and Texas and thus, represent a distinct evolutionary lineage possibly warranting distinction as an Evolutionarily Significant Unit (ESU) or subspecies. This study will inform conservation strategies focused on long-term survival of Florida's distinct, panmictic population.

Processes governing species richness in communities exposed to temporal environmental stochasticity: A review and synthesis of modelling approaches.

Research into the processes governing species richness has often assumed that the environment is fixed, whereas realistic environments are often characterised by random fluctuations over time. This temporal environmental stochasticity (TES) changes the demographic rates of species populations, with cascading effects on community dynamics and species richness. Theoretical and applied studies have used process-based mathematical models to determine how TES affects species richness, but under a variety of frameworks. Here, we critically review such studies to synthesise their findings and draw general conclusions. We first provide a broad mathematical framework encompassing the different ways in which TES has been modelled. We then review studies that have analysed models with TES under the assumption of negligible interspecific interactions, such that a community is conceptualised as the sum of independent species populations. These analyses have highlighted how TES can reduce species richness by increasing the frequency at which a species becomes rare and therefore prone to extinction. Next, we review studies that have relaxed the assumption of negligible interspecific interactions. To simplify the corresponding models and make them analytically tractable, such studies have used mean-field theory to derive fixed parameters representing the typical strength of interspecific interactions under TES. The resulting analyses have highlighted community-level effects that determine how TES affects species richness, for species that compete for a common limiting resource. With short temporal correlations of environmental conditions, a non-linear averaging effect of interspecific competition strength over time gives an increase in species richness. In contrast, with long temporal correlations of environmental conditions, strong selection favouring the fittest species between changes in environmental conditions results in a decrease in species richness. We compare such results with those from invasion analysis, which examines invasion growth rates (IGRs) instead of species richness directly. Qualitative differences sometimes arise because the IGR is the expected growth rate of a species when it is rare, which does not capture the variation around this mean or the probability of the species becoming rare. Our review elucidates key processes that have been found to mediate the negative and positive effects of TES on species richness, and by doing so highlights key areas for future research.

Sparsity of higher-order landscape interactions enables learning and prediction for microbiomes.

Microbiome engineering offers the potential to leverage microbial communities to improve outcomes in human health, agriculture, and climate. To translate this potential into reality, it is crucial to reliably predict community composition and function. But a brute force approach to cataloging community function is hindered by the combinatorial explosion in the number of ways we can combine microbial species. An alternative is to parameterize microbial community outcomes using simplified, mechanistic models, and then extrapolate these models beyond where we have sampled. But these approaches remain data-hungry, as well as requiring an a priori specification of what kinds of mechanisms are included and which are omitted. Here, we resolve both issues by introducing a mechanism-agnostic approach to predicting microbial community compositions and functions using limited data. The critical step is the identification of a sparse representation of the community landscape. We then leverage this sparsity to predict community compositions and functions, drawing from techniques in compressive sensing. We validate this approach on in silico community data, generated from a theoretical model. By sampling just [Formula: see text]1% of all possible communities, we accurately predict community compositions out of sample. We then demonstrate the real-world application of our approach by applying it to four experimental datasets and showing that we can recover interpretable, accurate predictions on composition and community function from highly limited data.

Universal abundance fluctuations across microbial communities, tropical forests, and urban populations.

The growth of complex populations, such as microbial communities, forests, and cities, occurs over vastly different spatial and temporal scales. Although research in different fields has developed detailed, system-specific models to understand each individual system, a unified analysis of different complex populations is lacking; such an analysis could deepen our understanding of each system and facilitate cross-pollination of tools and insights across fields. Here, we use a shared framework to analyze time-series data of the human gut microbiome, tropical forest, and urban employment. We demonstrate that a single, three-parameter model of stochastic population dynamics can reproduce the empirical distributions of population abundances and fluctuations in all three datasets. The three parameters characterizing a species measure its mean abundance, deterministic stability, and stochasticity. Our analysis reveals that, despite the vast differences in scale, all three systems occupy a similar region of parameter space when time is measured in generations. In other words, although the fluctuations observed in these systems may appear different, this difference is primarily due to the different physical timescales associated with each system. Further, we show that the distribution of temporal abundance fluctuations is described by just two parameters and derive a two-parameter functional form for abundance fluctuations to improve risk estimation and forecasting.

The Duty to Care is Not Dead Yet.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed social shortcomings and ethical failures, but it also revealed strengths and successes. In this perspective article, we examine and discuss one strength: the duty to care. We understand this duty in a broad sense, as more than a duty to treat individual patients who could infect health care workers. We understand it as a prima facie duty to work to provide care and promote health in the face of risks, obstacles, and inconveniences. Although at least one survey suggested that health care workers would not respond to a SARS-like outbreak according to a duty to care, we give reasons to show that the response was better than expected. The reasons we discuss lead us to consider normative accounts of the duty to care based on the adoption of social roles. Then, we consider one view of the relationship between empirical claims and normative claims about the duty to care in the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we draw insight from Mengzi, with an emendation from Dewey. Our perspective leaves many question to research, but one point seems clear: there will be future pandemics and the need for health care workers who respond.

Life history complementarity and the maintenance of biodiversity.

Life history, the schedule of when and how fast organisms grow, die and reproduce, is a critical axis along which species differ from each other1-4. In parallel, competition is a fundamental mechanism that determines the potential for species coexistence5-8. Previous models of stochastic competition have demonstrated that large numbers of species can persist over long timescales, even when competing for a single common resource9-12, but how life history differences between species increase or decrease the possibility of coexistence and, conversely, whether competition constrains what combinations of life history strategies complement each other remain open questions. Here we show that specific combinations of life history strategy optimize the persistence times of species competing for a single resource before one species overtakes its competitors. This suggests that co-occurring species would tend to have such complementary life history strategies, which we demonstrate using empirical data for perennial plants.

Stability criteria for the consumption and exchange of essential resources.

Models of consumer effects on a shared resource environment have helped clarify how the interplay of consumer traits and resource supply impact stable coexistence. Recent models generalize this picture to include the exchange of resources alongside resource competition. These models exemplify the fact that although consumers shape the resource environment, the outcome of consumer interactions is context-dependent: such models can have either stable or unstable equilibria, depending on the resource supply. However, these recent models focus on a simplified version of microbial metabolism where the depletion of resources always leads to consumer growth. Here, we model an arbitrarily large system of consumers governed by Liebig's law, where species require and deplete multiple resources, but each consumer's growth rate is only limited by a single one of these resources. Resources that are taken up but not incorporated into new biomass are leaked back into the environment, possibly transformed by intracellular reactions, thereby tying the mismatch between depletion and growth to cross-feeding. For this set of dynamics, we show that feasible equilibria can be either stable or unstable, again depending on the resource environment. We identify special consumption and production networks which protect the community from instability when resources are scarce. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the qualitative stability patterns derived analytically apply to a broader class of network structures and resource inflow profiles, including cases where multiple species coexist on only one externally supplied resource. Our stability criteria bear some resemblance to classic stability results for pairwise interactions, but also demonstrate how environmental context can shape coexistence patterns when resource limitation and exchange are modeled directly.

Targeted RNA sequencing reveals differential patterns of transcript expression in geographically discrete, insecticide resistant populations of Leptinotarsa decemlineata.

BACKGROUND: The Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata Say) is a major agricultural pest of commercial potatoes, partially due to its ability to rapidly develop resistance to multiple insecticide modes of action. Patterns of L. decemlineata insecticide resistance in the contiguous United States have been linked to geographic location and regional management practices. Several previous studies have classified enzymes that are overexpressed following L. decemlineata exposure to commercial pesticides, many of which have been linked to xenobiotic metabolism. Studies have further associated geographic disparities in resistance patterns to cross-resistance driven by fungicide exposure in the East Coast and Midwest. RESULTS: In this study, our objective was to investigate transcript expression of 38 previously classified detoxification enzymes induced by imidacloprid (an insecticide) and chlorothalonil (a fungicide) within five discrete populations of L. decemlineata obtained from areas in the USA representing eastern, midwestern and western production regions. We found unique patterns of transcript expression in different geographic locations, including overexpression of transcripts related to insecticide metabolism within insecticide-resistant populations. CONCLUSION: The results suggest the genetic response of these populations may be partially linked to geographic location and corresponding management practices. © 2021 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Emergent neutrality in consumer-resource dynamics.

Neutral theory assumes all species and individuals in a community are ecologically equivalent. This controversial hypothesis has been tested across many taxonomic groups and environmental contexts, and successfully predicts species abundance distributions across multiple high-diversity communities. However, it has been critiqued for its failure to predict a broader range of community properties, particularly regarding community dynamics from generational to geological timescales. Moreover, it is unclear whether neutrality can ever be a true description of a community given the ubiquity of interspecific differences, which presumably lead to ecological inequivalences. Here we derive analytical predictions for when and why non-neutral communities of consumers and resources may present neutral-like outcomes, which we verify using numerical simulations. Our results, which span both static and dynamical community properties, demonstrate the limitations of summarizing distributions to detect non-neutrality, and provide a potential explanation for the successes of neutral theory as a description of macroecological pattern.

Adherence in chronic hepatitis B: associations between medication possession ratio and adverse viral outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is effective and can substantially reduce the risk of progressive liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma but is often administered for an indefinite duration. Adherence has been shown in clinical trials to maximize the benefit of therapy and prevent the development of resistance, however the optimal threshold for predicting clinical outcomes has not been identified. The aim of this study was to analyse adherence using the medication possession ration (MPR) and its relation to virological outcomes in a large multi-centre hospital outpatient population, and guide development of an evidence-based threshold for optimal adherence. METHODS: Pharmacy and pathology records of patients dispensed CHB antiviral therapy from 4 major hospitals in Melbourne between 2010 and 2013 were extracted and analysed to determine their MPR and identify instances of unfavourable viral outcomes. Viral outcomes were classified categorically, with unfavourable outcomes including HBV DNA remaining detectable after 2 years treatment or experiencing viral breakthrough. The association between MPR and unfavourable outcomes was assessed according to various thresholds using ROC analysis and time-to-event regression. RESULTS: Six hundred forty-two individuals were included in the analysis. Median age was 46.6 years, 68% were male, 77% were born in Asia, and the median time on treatment was 27.5 months. The majority had favourable viral outcomes (91.06%), with most having undetectable HBV DNA at the end of the study period. The most common unfavourable outcome was a rise of < 1 log in HBV DNA (6.54% of the total), while 2.49% of participants experienced viral breakthrough. Adherence was linearly associated with favourable outcomes, with increasing risk of virological breakthrough as MPR fell. Decreasing the value of MPR, at which a cut-point was taken, was associated with a progressively larger reduction in the rate of unfavourable event; from a 60% reduction under a cut-point of 1.00 to a 79% reduction when the MPR cut-point was set at 0.8. CONCLUSION: Lower adherence as measured using the MPR was strongly associated with unfavourable therapeutic outcomes, including virological failure. Optimising adherence is therefore important for preventing viral rebound and potential complications such as antiviral resistance. The evidence of dose-response highlights the need for nuanced interventions.

Environmental migrants, structural injustice, and moral responsibility.

Climate change and environmental problems will force or induce millions of people to migrate. In this article, I describe environmental migration and articulate some of the ethical issues. To begin, I give an account of these migrants that overcomes misleading dichotomies. Then, I focus attention on two important ethical issues: justice and responsibility. Although we are all at risk of becoming environmental migrants, we are not equally at risk. Our risk depends on our temporal position, geographical location, social position, and the kind of society in which we live. We all contribute to environmental problems, but we do not contribute equally. About 11% of the world population is responsible for 50% of carbon emissions. These inequalities raise issues of justice because many of the people who are at high risk have contributed little to the problems. Since the issues of justice are relatively clear and compelling, I focus more attention on issues of responsibility. I use Iris Marion Young's account of responsibility for structural injustice to address four key questions about moral responsibility and environmental migration.

Counting niches: Abundance-by-trait patterns reveal niche partitioning in a Neotropical forest.

Tropical forests challenge us to understand biodiversity, as numerous seemingly similar species persist on only a handful of shared resources. Recent ecological theory posits that biodiversity is sustained by a combination of species differences reducing interspecific competition and species similarities increasing time to competitive exclusion. Together, these mechanisms counterintuitively predict that competing species should cluster by traits, in contrast with traditional expectations of trait overdispersion. Here, we show for the first time that trees in a tropical forest exhibit a clustering pattern. In a 50-ha plot on Barro Colorado Island in Panama, species abundances exhibit clusters in two traits connected to light capture strategy, suggesting that competition for light structures community composition. Notably, we find four clusters by maximum height, quantitatively supporting the classical grouping of Neotropical woody plants into shrubs, understory, midstory, and canopy layers.

Identifying mechanisms of genetic differentiation among populations in vagile species: historical factors dominate genetic differentiation in seabirds.

Elucidating the factors underlying the origin and maintenance of genetic variation among populations is crucial for our understanding of their ecology and evolution, and also to help identify conservation priorities. While intrinsic movement has been hypothesized as the major determinant of population genetic structuring in abundant vagile species, growing evidence indicates that vagility does not always predict genetic differentiation. However, identifying the determinants of genetic structuring can be challenging, and these are largely unknown for most vagile species. Although, in principle, levels of gene flow can be inferred from neutral allele frequency divergence among populations, underlying assumptions may be unrealistic. Moreover, molecular studies have suggested that contemporary gene flow has often not overridden historical influences on population genetic structure, which indicates potential inadequacies of any interpretations that fail to consider the influence of history in shaping that structure. This exhaustive review of the theoretical and empirical literature investigates the determinants of population genetic differentiation using seabirds as a model system for vagile taxa. Seabirds provide a tractable group within which to identify the determinants of genetic differentiation, given their widespread distribution in marine habitats and an abundance of ecological and genetic studies conducted on this group. Herein we evaluate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in 73 seabird species. Lack of mutation-drift equilibrium observed in 19% of species coincided with lower estimates of genetic differentiation, suggesting that dynamic demographic histories can often lead to erroneous interpretations of contemporary gene flow, even in vagile species. Presence of land across the species sampling range, or sampling of breeding colonies representing ice-free Pleistocene refuge zones, appear to be associated with genetic differentiation in Tropical and Southern Temperate species, respectively, indicating that long-term barriers and persistence of populations are important for their genetic structuring. Conversely, biotic factors commonly considered to influence population genetic structure, such as spatial segregation during foraging, were inconsistently associated with population genetic differentiation. In light of these results, we recommend that genetic studies should consider potential historical events when identifying determinants of genetic differentiation among populations to avoid overestimating the role of contemporary factors, even for highly vagile taxa.

Power, pollution, and ethics.

Environmental problems are more urgent and serious than ever: climate change, air pollution, water pollution, shortages of freshwater, deforestation, over-fishing, antibiotic resistance, and more. Discussions in public health address these problems because they affect people's health and life prospects so profoundly. In this work, we add to the discussion by exploring the ethical aspects of a case scenario that involves pollution from a coal-fired power plant. After we note how the plant contributes to pollution, we discuss ethical issues of justice and responsibility. We show how the burdens of pollution and the benefits of the activities that generate pollution are unfairly distributed in this case. We also suggest that social justice demands certain forms of respect, consideration, and participation. Then we turn to issues of responsibility. We focus on responsibilities citizens have to try to change the social structures, background conditions, economic systems, and accepted practices that underlie the problem. We also consider responsibilities that physicians have, both collectively and individually. Taking responsibility for pollution is not a matter of following a medical protocol or legal requirement. It involves creativity, judgement, and a sense of what the situation calls for.

Ecophylogenetics Clarifies the Evolutionary Association between Mammals and Their Gut Microbiota.

Our knowledge of how the gut microbiome relates to mammalian evolution benefits from the identification of gut microbial taxa that are unexpectedly prevalent or unexpectedly conserved across mammals. Such taxa enable experimental determination of the traits needed for such microbes to succeed as gut generalists, as well as those traits that impact mammalian fitness. However, the punctuated resolution of microbial taxonomy may limit our ability to detect conserved gut microbes, especially in cases in which broadly related microbial lineages possess shared traits that drive their apparent ubiquity across mammals. To advance the discovery of conserved mammalian gut microbes, we developed a novel ecophylogenetic approach to taxonomy that groups microbes into taxonomic units based on their shared ancestry and their common distribution across mammals. Applying this approach to previously generated gut microbiome data uncovered monophyletic clades of gut bacteria that are conserved across mammals. It also resolved microbial clades exclusive to and conserved among particular mammalian lineages. Conserved clades often manifest phylogenetic patterns, such as cophylogeny with their host, that indicate that they are subject to selective processes, such as host filtering. Moreover, this analysis identified variation in the rate at which mammals acquire or lose conserved microbial clades and resolved a human-accelerated loss of conserved clades. Collectively, the data from this study reveal mammalian gut microbiota that possess traits linked to mammalian phylogeny, point to the existence of a core set of microbes that comprise the mammalian gut microbiome, and clarify potential evolutionary or ecologic mechanisms driving the gut microbiome's diversification throughout mammalian evolution.IMPORTANCE Our understanding of mammalian evolution has become microbiome-aware. While emerging research links mammalian biodiversity and the gut microbiome, we lack insight into which microbes potentially impact mammalian evolution. Microbes common to diverse mammalian species may be strong candidates, as their absence in the gut may affect how the microbiome functionally contributes to mammalian physiology to adversely affect fitness. Identifying such conserved gut microbes is thus important to ultimately assessing the microbiome's potential role in mammalian evolution. To advance their discovery, we developed an approach that identifies ancestrally related groups of microbes that distribute across mammals in a way that indicates their collective conservation. These conserved clades are presumed to have evolved a trait in their ancestor that matters to their distribution across mammals and which has been retained among clade members. We found not only that such clades do exist among mammals but also that they appear to be subject to natural selection and characterize human evolution.

Stability criteria for complex microbial communities.

Competition and mutualism are inevitable processes in microbial ecology, and a central question is which and how many taxa will persist in the face of these interactions. Ecological theory has demonstrated that when direct, pairwise interactions among a group of species are too numerous, or too strong, then the coexistence of these species will be unstable to any slight perturbation. Here, we refine and to some extent overturn that understanding, by considering explicitly the resources that microbes consume and produce. In contrast to more complex organisms, microbial cells consume primarily abiotic resources, and mutualistic interactions are often mediated through the mechanism of crossfeeding. We show that if microbes consume, but do not produce resources, then any positive equilibrium will always be stable to small perturbations. We go on to show that in the presence of crossfeeding, stability is no longer guaranteed. However, positive equilibria remain stable whenever mutualistic interactions are either sufficiently weak, or when all pairs of taxa reciprocate each other's assistance.

Born to Run? Quantifying the Balance of Prior Bias and New Information in Prey Escape Decisions.

Animal behaviors can often be challenging to model and predict, though optimality theory has improved our ability to do so. While many qualitative predictions of behavior exist, accurate quantitative models, tested by empirical data, are often lacking. This is likely due to variation in biases across individuals and variation in the way new information is gathered and used. We propose a modeling framework based on a novel interpretation of Bayes's theorem to integrate optimization of energetic constraints with both prior biases and specific sources of new information gathered by individuals. We present methods for inferring distributions of prior biases within populations rather than assuming known priors, as is common in Bayesian approaches to modeling behavior, and for evaluating the goodness of fit of overall model descriptions. We apply this framework to predict optimal escape during predator-prey encounters, based on prior biases and variation in what information prey use. Using this approach, we collected and analyzed data characterizing white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) escape behavior in response to human approaches. We found that distance to predator alone was not sufficient to predict deer flight response and show that the inclusion of additional information is necessary. We also compared differences in the inferred distributions of prior biases across different populations and discuss the possible role of human activity in influencing these distributions.

Cross-scale neutral ecology and the maintenance of biodiversity.

One of the first successes of neutral ecology was to predict realistically-broad distributions of rare and abundant species. However, it has remained an outstanding theoretical challenge to describe how this distribution of abundances changes with spatial scale, and this gap has hampered attempts to use observed species abundances as a way to quantify what non-neutral processes are needed to fully explain observed patterns. To address this, we introduce a new formulation of spatial neutral biodiversity theory and derive analytical predictions for the way abundance distributions change with scale. For tropical forest data where neutrality has been extensively tested before now, we apply this approach and identify an incompatibility between neutral fits at regional and local scales. We use this approach derive a sharp quantification of what remains to be explained by non-neutral processes at the local scale, setting a quantitative target for more general models for the maintenance of biodiversity.