Including oxygen supplement in the early warning score: a prediction study comparing TOKS, modified TOKS and NEWS in a cohort of emergency patients.

BACKGROUND: Early warning scores (EWS) are widely used in emergency departments and on general wards to detect critical illness and deterioration. TOKS ("Tidlig Opsporing af Kritisk Sygdom") is an early warning score used in Central Denmark Region to monitor hospitalized patients. The objective of this study is to investigate whether inclusion of supplement in the TOKS algorithm (modified TOKS; mTOKS), would improve the ability to predict 7-day mortality. Secondarily, we compare the discriminatory ability between TOKS, mTOKS and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). METHODS: This is a prediction study including a cohort of adult patients who attended an emergency department in Central Denmark Region during a 3-month period in 2015. The discriminatory ability of TOKS, mTOKS and NEWS was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics- curve (AUROC) with 7-day mortality as outcome. mTOKS was defined by adding 2 points for oxygen supplement to the normal TOKS score. RESULTS: 18.853 patients were included. AUROC for TOKS: 0,78 (95%-CI: 0,76-0,81). AUROC for mTOKS: 0,81 (95 %-CI: 0,78-0,83). AUROC for NEWS: 0,83 (95%-CI: 0,80-0,85). The predictive ability of all three early warning scores are statistically significantly different from each other (p-value < 0,01). CONCLUSION: The discriminatory ability of TOKS improved statistically by including oxygen supplement. All models showed moderate to good discriminatory ability.

The 7-day mortality associated with an early warning score varies between age groups in a cohort of adult Danish emergency department patients.

INTRODUCTION: Early warning scores are designed for monitoring hospitalized patients and enable a timely response to deviating vital signs. The aim of this study was to examine whether 7-day mortality, associated with an initial early warning score, differs between age groups. Our hypothesis was that elderly patients are at greater risk of dying compared to a younger patient with a similar early warning score. METHODS: This observational cohort study included adult emergency department patients from five hospitals in Denmark over three consecutive months in 2015. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between patients' initial early warning scores category (0, 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7+) and 7-day mortality in different age groups (16-59 years, 60-79 years, 80+ years). Mortality rates in each early warning scores category are compared between the youngest patients (16-59 years, reference group) and the two older age groups (60-79 years and 80+ years). RESULTS: A total of 19 123 emergency patients were included. The senior age groups (60-79 years and 80+ years) both displayed significantly higher 7-day mortality, in all early warning score categories, when compared to the youngest patients (16-59 years). The mortality difference between the youngest (16-59 years) and oldest age group (80+ years) remained significant in all early warning scores categories after adjusting for comorbidity. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that the oldest emergency department patients (80+ years) have a higher 7-day mortality compared to young patients (16-59 years) with a similar initial early warning score.