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2.
Front Psychiatry ; 13: 826043, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35308891

ABSTRACT

Objective: Although autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a relatively common, well-known but heterogeneous neuropsychiatric disorder, specific knowledge about characteristics of this heterogeneity is scarce. There is consensus that IQ contributes to this heterogeneity as well as complicates diagnostics and treatment planning. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS/2) in the whole and IQ-defined subsamples, and analyzed if the ADOS/2 accuracy may be increased by the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms that processed additional information including the IQ level. Methods: The study included 1,084 individuals: 440 individuals with ASD (with a mean IQ level of 3.3 ± 1.5) and 644 individuals without ASD (with a mean IQ level of 3.2 ± 1.2). We applied and analyzed Random Forest (RF) and Decision Tree (DT) to the ADOS/2 data, compared their accuracy to ADOS/2 cutoff algorithms, and examined most relevant items to distinguish between ASD and Non-ASD. In sum, we included 49 individual features, independently of the applied ADOS module. Results: In DT analyses, we observed that for the decision ASD/Non-ASD, solely one to four items are sufficient to differentiate between groups with high accuracy. In addition, in sub-cohorts of individuals with (a) below (IQ level ≥4)/ID and (b) above average intelligence (IQ level ≤ 2), the ADOS/2 cutoff showed reduced accuracy. This reduced accuracy results in (a) a three times higher risk of false-positive diagnoses or (b) a 1.7 higher risk for false-negative diagnoses; both errors could be significantly decreased by the application of the alternative ML algorithms. Conclusions: Using ML algorithms showed that a small set of ADOS/2 items could help clinicians to more accurately detect ASD in clinical practice across all IQ levels and to increase diagnostic accuracy especially in individuals with below and above average IQ level.

3.
Clin Neurophysiol ; 133: 157-164, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34844880

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Seizure forecasting using machine learning is possible, but the performance is far from ideal, as indicated by many false predictions and low specificity. Here, we examine false and missing alarms of two algorithms on long-term datasets to show that the limitations are less related to classifiers or features, but rather to intrinsic changes in the data. METHODS: We evaluated two algorithms on three datasets by computing the correlation of false predictions and estimating the information transfer between both classification methods. RESULTS: For 9 out of 12 individuals both methods showed a performance better than chance. For all individuals we observed a positive correlation in predictions. For individuals with strong correlation in false predictions we were able to boost the performance of one method by excluding test samples based on the results of the second method. CONCLUSIONS: Substantially different algorithms exhibit a highly consistent performance and a strong coherency in false and missing alarms. Hence, changing the underlying hypothesis of a preictal state of fixed time length prior to each seizure to a proictal state is more helpful than further optimizing classifiers. SIGNIFICANCE: The outcome is significant for the evaluation of seizure prediction algorithms on continuous data.


Subject(s)
Electroencephalography , Epilepsy/diagnosis , Neural Networks, Computer , Seizures/diagnosis , Adult , Aged , Databases, Factual , Epilepsy/physiopathology , Female , Forecasting , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Seizures/physiopathology
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