The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C.

Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Preventing and mitigating health risks of climate change.

Global environmental changes, driven by the consequences of human activities and population growth, are altering our planet in ways that pose current threats to human health, with the magnitude of these threats projected to increase over coming decades if additional, proactive actions are not taken. Global changes, unprecedented in their geospatial and temporal scales, include climate change, marine pollution, ozone layer depletion, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate change is the best studied. The health risks of a changing climate will become increasingly urgent as climate change affects the quantity and quality of food and water, increases air pollution, alters the distribution of vectors/pathogens and disease transmission dynamics, and reduces eco-physical buffering against extreme weather and climate events. Health systems urgently need to be improved to effectively address these emerging challenges. This paper provides an overview of the health consequences of climate change, and discusses how health risks can be minimized and avoided via mitigation and adaptation pathways.

The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti.

The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue and chikungunya, two globally-important vector-borne diseases. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti. Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061-2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950-2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km2 is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8% (RCP4.5) to 13% (RCP8.5) by 2061-2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298-460 M (8-12%) by 2061-2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805-5084 M (127-134%) for SSP3 and 2232-2483 M (59-65%) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change.

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. RECENT FINDINGS: Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. We suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Climate change and respiratory disease: European Respiratory Society position statement.

Climate change will affect individuals with pre-existing respiratory disease, but the extent of the effect remains unclear. The present position statement was developed on behalf of the European Respiratory Society in order to identify areas of concern arising from climate change for individuals with respiratory disease, healthcare workers in the respiratory sector and policy makers. The statement was developed following a 2-day workshop held in Leuven (Belgium) in March 2008. Key areas of concern for the respiratory community arising from climate change are discussed and recommendations made to address gaps in knowledge. The most important recommendation was the development of more accurate predictive models for predicting the impact of climate change on respiratory health. Respiratory healthcare workers also have an advocatory role in persuading governments and the European Union to maintain awareness and appropriate actions with respect to climate change, and these areas are also discussed in the position statement.

Magnetic field exposure and long-term survival among children with leukaemia.

We examined the association between magnetic field (MF) exposure and survival among children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) treated at 51 Pediatric Oncology Group centres between 1996 and 2001. Of 1672 potentially eligible children under treatment, 482 (29%) participated and personal 24-h MF measurements were obtained from 412 participants. A total of 386 children with ALL and 361 with B-precursor ALL were included in the analysis of event-free survival (time from diagnosis to first treatment failure, relapse, secondary malignancy, or death) and overall survival. After adjustment for risk group and socioeconomic status, the event-free survival hazard ratio (HR) for children with measurements >/=0.3 muT was 1.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8, 4.9), compared to <0.1 muT. For survival, elevated HRs were found for children exposed to >/=0.3 muT (multivariate HR=4.5, 95% CI 1.5-13.8) but based on only four deaths among 19 children. While risk was increased among children with exposures above 0.3 muT, the small numbers limited inferences for this finding.

The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten European countries.

We investigated the relationship between environmental temperature and reported Salmonella infections in 10 European populations. Poisson regression adapted for time-series data was used to estimate the percentage change in the number of cases associated with a 1 degree C increase in average temperature above an identified threshold value. We found, on average, a linear association between temperature and the number of reported cases of salmonellosis above a threshold of 6 degrees C. The relationships were very similar in The Netherlands, England and Wales, Switzerland, Spain and the Czech Republic. The greatest effect was apparent for temperature 1 week before the onset of illness. The strongest associations were observed in adults in the 15-64 years age group and infection with Salmonella Enteritidis (a serotype of Salmonella). Our findings indicate that higher temperatures around the time of consumption are important and reinforce the need for further education on food-handling behaviour.

Weather changes associated with hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases and stroke in California, 1983-1998.

Poisson regression models were used to evaluate associations between temperature, precipitation, days of extreme heat, and other weather changes (lagged 7 days), as well as El Niño events, with hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, congestive heart failure, and stroke in three California regions. Temperature changes were defined as a 3 degrees C decrease in maximum temperature or a 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperature. Temperature and precipitation were analyzed separately for normal weather periods and El Niño events, and for both weather periods combined. Associations varied by region, age, and gender. In Los Angeles, temperature changes resulted in small changes in hospitalizations. Among San Francisco residents 70+ years of age, temperature changes increased hospitalizations for nearly all outcomes from 6% to 13%. Associations among Sacramento residents were similar to those in San Francisco: among men 70+ years of age, temperature changes increased hospitalizations by 6%-11% for acute myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure, and 10%-18% for stroke. El Niño events were consistently and significantly associated with hospitalizations only in San Francisco and Sacramento, and then only for angina pectoris (increasing hospitalizations during El Niño events). These exploratory analyses merit further confirmation to improve our understanding of how admissions to hospitals for cardiovascular disease and stroke change with changing weather. Such an understanding is useful for developing current public health responses, for evaluating population vulnerability, and for designing future adaptation measures.

Alternative magnetic field exposure metrics: relationship to TWA, appliance use, and demographic characteristics of children in a leukemia survival study.

The ongoing Childhood Leukemia Survival Study is examining the possible association between magnetic field exposure and survival of children with newly diagnosed acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL). We report the results of the first year 24 h personal magnetic field monitoring for 356 US and Canadian children by time weighted average TWA and alternative exposure metrics. The mean TWA of 0.12 microT was similar to earlier personal exposure studies involving children. A high correlation was found between 24 h TWA and alternative metrics: 12 h day TWA, 12 night TWA, geometric mean, 95th percentile value, percentage time over 0.2 and 0.3 microT, and an estimate of field stability (Constant Field Metric). Two measures of field intermittency, rate of change metric (RCM) and standardized rate of change metric (RCMS), were not highly correlated with TWA. The strongest predictor of TWA was location of residence, with highest TWAs associated with urban areas. Residence in an apartment, lower paternal educational level, and residential mobility were also associated with higher TWAs. There were no significant differences in the appliance use patterns of children with higher TWA values. Children with the highest field intermittency (high RCM) were more likely to sit within 3 feet of a video game attached to the TV. Our results suggest that 24 h TWA is a representative metric for certain patterns of exposure, but is not highly correlated with two metrics that estimate field intermittency.

Association of normal weather periods and El Niño events with hospitalization for viral pneumonia in females: California, 1983-1998.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined associations between weather and hospitalizations of females for viral pneumonia during normal weather periods and El Niño events in the California counties of Sacramento and Yolo, San Francisco and San Mateo, and Los Angeles and Orange. METHODS: Associations between weather and hospitalizations (lagged 7 days) for January 1983 through June 1998 were evaluated with Poisson regression models. Generalized estimating equations were used to adjust for autocorrelation and overdispersion. Data were summed over 4 days. RESULTS: Associations varied by region. Hospitalizations in San Francisco and Los Angeles increased significantly (30%-50%) with a 5 degrees F decrease in minimum temperature. Hospitalizations in Sacramento increased significantly (25%-40%) with a 5 degrees F decrease in maximum temperature difference. The associations were independent of season. El Niño events were associated with hospitalizations only in Sacramento, with significant decreases for girls and increases for women. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that viral pneumonia could continue to be a major public health issue, with a significant association between weather and hospitalizations, even as the global mean temperature continues to rise. An understanding of population sensitivity under different weather conditions could lead to an improved understanding of virus transmission.

Comments on the process and product of the health impacts assessment component of the national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States.

In 1990 Congress formed the U.S. Global Change Research Program and required it to conduct a periodic national assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and change on all regions and select economic/resource sectors of the United States. Between 1998 and 2000, a team of experts collaborated on a health impacts assessment that formed the basis for the first National Assessment's analysis of the potential impacts of climate on human health. The health impacts assessment was integrated across a number of health disciplines and involved a search for and qualitative expert judgment review of data on the potential links between climate events and population health. Accomplishments included identification of vulnerable populations, adaptation strategies, research needs, and data gaps. Experts, stakeholders, and the public were involved. The assessment is reported in five articles in this issue; a summary was published in the April 2000 issue of Environmental Health Perspectives. The assessment report will enhance understanding of ways human health might be affected by various climate-associated stresses and of the need for further empirical and predictive research. Improved understanding and communication of the significance and inevitability of uncertainties in such an assessment are critical to further research and policy development.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects.

Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases.

Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved.

Large granular lymphocytic (LGL) leukemia in rats exposed to intermittent 60 Hz magnetic fields.

An animal model for large granular lymphocytic (LGL) leukemia in male Fischer 344 rats was utilized to determine whether magnetic field exposure can be shown to influence the progression of leukemia. We previously reported that exposure to continuous 60 Hz, 1 mT magnetic fields did not significantly alter the clinical progression of LGL leukemia in young male rats following injection of spleen cells from donor leukemic rats. Results presented here extend those studies with the following objectives: (a) to replicate the previous study of continuous 60 Hz magnetic field exposures, but using fewer LGL cells in the inoculum, and (b) to determine if intermittent 60 Hz magnetic fields can alter the clinical progression of leukemia. Rats were randomly assigned to four treatment groups (18/group) as follows: (1) 1 mT (10 G) continuous field, (2) 1 mT intermittent field (off/on at 3 min intervals), (3) ambient controls ( < 0.1 microT), and (4) positive control (5 Gy whole body irradiation from cobalt-60 four days prior to initiation of exposure). All rats were injected intraperitoneally with 2.2 x 10(6) fresh, viable LGL leukemic spleen cells at the beginning of the study. The fields were activated for 20 h per day, 7 days per week, and all exposure conditions were superimposed over the natural ambient magnetic field. The rats were weighed and palpated for splenomegaly weekly. Splenomegaly developed 9-11 weeks after transplantation of the leukemia cells. Hematological evaluations were performed at 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, and 16 weeks of exposure. Peripheral blood hemoglobin concentration, red blood cells, and packed cell volume declined, and total white blood cells and LGL cells increased dramatically in all treatment groups after onset of leukemia. Although the positive control group showed different body weight curves and developed signs of leukemia earlier than other groups, differences were not detected between exposure groups and ambient controls. Furthermore, there were no overall effects of magnetic fields on splenomegaly or survival in exposed animals. In addition, no significant and/or consistent differences were detected in hematological parameters between the magnetic field exposed and the ambient control groups.

The possible role of contact current in cancer risk associated with residential magnetic fields.

Residential electrical wiring safety practices in the US result in the possibility of a small voltage (up to a few tenths of a volt) on appliance surfaces with respect to water pipes or other grounded surfaces. This "open circuit voltage" (V(OC)) will cause "contact current" to flow in a person who touches the appliance and completes an electrical circuit to ground. This paper presents data suggesting that contact current due to V(OC) is an exposure that may explain the reported associations of residential magnetic fields with childhood leukemia. Our analysis is based on a computer model of a 40 house (single-unit, detached dwelling) neighborhood with electrical service that is representative of US grounding practices. The analysis was motivated by recent research suggesting that the physical location of power lines in the backyard, in contrast to the street, may be relevant to a relationship of power lines with childhood leukemia. In the model, the highest magnetic field levels and V(OC)s were both associated with backyard lines, and the highest V(OC)s were also associated with long ground paths in the residence. Across the entire neighborhood, magnetic field exposure was highly correlated with V(OC) (r = 0.93). Dosimetric modeling indicates that, compared to a very high residential level of a uniform horizontal magnetic field (10 mu T) or a vertical electric field (100 V/m), a modest level of contact current (approximately 18 mu A) leads to considerably greater induced electric fields (> 1 mV/m) averaged across tissue, such as bone marrow and heart. The correlation of V(OC) with magnetic fields in the model, combined with the dose estimates, lead us to conclude that V(OC) is a potentially important exposure with respect to childhood leukemia risks associated with residential magnetic fields. These findings, nonetheless, may not apply to residential service used in several European countries or to the Scandinavian studies concerned with populations exposed to magnetic fields from overhead transmission lines.

Description of a new computer wire coding method and its application to evaluate potential control selection bias in the Savitz et al. childhood cancer study.

We developed a new computer wire coding method and then applied it to investigate the suggestion that control selection bias might explain the observed association between wire codes and childhood cancer made in the study conducted by Savitz et al. in the Denver area. The computer wire coding method used a geographic information system approach with data on the local distribution electric system and from tax assessor records. Individual residences were represented as a circle scaled to the ground floor area of the residence and centered on the lot centroid. The wire code of the residence was determined from the distance between the circle and the relevant power line, and from the current carrying capacity of that line. Using this method, wire codes were generated for 238 290 residences built before 1986, the time of the Savitz et al. study, in the Denver metropolitan area. We then attempted to reconstruct the 1985 population of hypothetically eligible control children in the Denver metropolitan area by using 1980 census data. Since data were not available to locate the children in each residence within a census block, uniform, Poisson, and negative binomial distributions were used to randomly assign children to residences. To evaluate the likelihood of the wire code distribution of the controls selected by Savitz et al., 100 random trials were conducted for each distribution, matching two controls to each case. The odds ratios between childhood cancer and very high current configuration (VHCC) wire codes were reduced when the assigned controls were used, suggesting control selection bias may have been present. However, control selection bias is unlikely to account for all the reported association between childhood cancer and wire codes in the Savitz et al. study.