Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou.

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.

Mapping cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services in British Columbia.

Ecosystem services are impacted through restricting service supply, through limiting people from accessing services, and by affecting the quality of services. We map cumulative impacts to 8 different ecosystem services in coastal British Columbia using InVEST models, spatial data, and expert elicitation to quantify risk to each service from anthropogenic activities. We find that impact to service access and quality as well as impact to service supply results in greater severity of impact and a greater diversity of causal processes of impact than only considering impact to service supply. This suggests that limiting access to services and impacts to service quality may be important and understanding these kinds of impacts may complement our knowledge of impacts to biophysical systems that produce services. Some ecosystem services are at greater risk from climate stressors while others face greater risk from local activities. Prominent causal pathways of impact include limiting access and affecting quality. Mapping cumulative impacts to ecosystem services can yield rich insights, including highlighting areas of high impact and understanding causes of impact, and should be an essential management tool to help maintain the flow of services we benefit from.

Recent trends of forest cover change and ecosystem services in eastern upland region of Bangladesh.

Forest cover changes have diverse outcomes for the livelihoods of rural people across the developing world. However, these outcomes are poorly characterized across varying landscapes. This study examined forest cover changes, associated drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services supporting livelihoods in three distinct areas (i.e. remote, intermediate and on-road) in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region of Bangladesh. The three zones had features of decreasing distance to major roads, decreasing levels of forest cover, and increasing levels of agricultural change. Data was collected from satellite images for 1989-2014, structured household interviews, and group discussions using Participatory Rural Appraisal approaches with local communities to integrate and contrast local people's perceptions of forest cover and ecosystem service change with commonly used methods for mapping forest dynamics. Satellite image analysis showed a net gain of forest areas from 1989 to 2003 followed by a net loss from 2003 to 2014. The gain was slightly higher in intermediate (1.68%) and on-road (1.33%) zones than in the remote (0.5%) zone. By contrast, almost 90% of households perceived severe forest loss and 75% of respondents observed concomitant declines in the availability of fuel wood, construction materials, wild foods, and fresh water. People also reported traveling further from the household to harvest forest products. The main drivers of forest loss identified included increased harvesting of timber and fuel wood over time in the intermediate and on-road zones, whereas swidden farming persisted as the major driver of change over time in the remote zone. The contrast between remotely-sensed forest gains and household-perceived forest loss shows community experiences may be a critical addition to satellite imagery analysis by revealing the livelihood outcomes linked to patterns of forest loss and gain. Community experiences may also evoke solutions by characterizing local drivers of forest change. Failing to disaggregate the impacts of forest loss and gains on ecosystems services over time may lead to uninformed management and further negative consequences for human well-being.