Safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of the self-amplifying mRNA ARCT-154 COVID-19 vaccine: pooled phase 1, 2, 3a and 3b randomized, controlled trials.

Combination of waning immunity and lower effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 variants of approved COVID-19 vaccines necessitates new vaccines. We evaluated two doses, 28 days apart, of ARCT-154, a self-amplifying mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, compared with saline placebo in an integrated phase 1/2/3a/3b controlled, observer-blind trial in Vietnamese adults (ClinicalTrial.gov identifier: NCT05012943). Primary safety and reactogenicity outcomes were unsolicited adverse events (AE) 28 days after each dose, solicited local and systemic AE 7 days after each dose, and serious AEs throughout the study. Primary immunogenicity outcome was the immune response as neutralizing antibodies 28 days after the second dose. Efficacy against COVID-19 was assessed as primary and secondary outcomes in phase 3b. ARCT-154 was well tolerated with generally mild-moderate transient AEs. Four weeks after the second dose 94.1% (95% CI: 92.1-95.8) of vaccinees seroconverted for neutralizing antibodies, with a geometric mean-fold rise from baseline of 14.5 (95% CI: 13.6-15.5). Of 640 cases of confirmed COVID-19 eligible for efficacy analysis most were due to the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant. Efficacy of ARCT-154 was 56.6% (95% CI: 48.7- 63.3) against any COVID-19, and 95.3% (80.5-98.9) against severe COVID-19. ARCT-154 vaccination is well tolerated, immunogenic and efficacious, particularly against severe COVID-19 disease.

Efficacy of a Cell-Culture-Derived Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in Children.

BACKGROUND: Cell-culture-derived influenza vaccines may enable a closer antigenic match to circulating strains of influenza virus by avoiding egg-adapted mutations. METHODS: We evaluated the efficacy of a cell-culture-derived quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4c) using a Madin-Darby canine kidney cell line in children and adolescents 2 to less than 18 years of age. During three influenza seasons, participants from eight countries were enrolled in an observer-blinded, randomized clinical trial comparing IIV4c with a noninfluenza vaccine (meningococcal ACWY). All the participants received a dose of a trial vaccine. Children 2 to less than 9 years of age without previous influenza vaccination who were assigned to the IIV4c group received a second dose on day 29; their counterparts who were assigned to the comparator group received placebo. Participants were followed for at least 180 days for efficacy and safety. The presence of influenza virus in nasopharyngeal swabs from participants with influenza-like illness was confirmed by reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay and viral culture. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to evaluate the efficacy of IIV4c as measured by the first occurrence of laboratory-confirmed type A or B influenza (primary end point). RESULTS: Between 2017 and 2019, a total of 4514 participants were randomly assigned to receive IIV4c or the meningococcal ACWY vaccine. Laboratory-confirmed influenza occurred in 175 of 2257 participants (7.8%) in the IIV4c group and in 364 of 2252 participants (16.2%) in the comparator group, and the efficacy of IIV4c was 54.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 45.7 to 62.1). Efficacy was 80.7% (95% CI, 69.2 to 87.9) against influenza A/H1N1, 42.1% (95% CI, 20.3 to 57.9) against influenza A/H3N2, and 47.6% (95% CI, 31.4 to 60.0) against influenza B. IIV4c showed consistent vaccine efficacy in subgroups according to age, sex, race, and previous influenza vaccination. The incidences of adverse events were similar in the IIV4c group and the comparator group. CONCLUSIONS: IIV4c provided protection against influenza in healthy children and adolescents across seasons, regardless of previous influenza vaccination. (Funded by Seqirus; EudraCT number, 2016-002883-15; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03165617.).

Quantitative disease progression model of α-1 proteinase inhibitor therapy on computed tomography lung density in patients with α-1 antitrypsin deficiency.

AIMS: Early-onset emphysema attributed to α-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is frequently overlooked and undertreated. RAPID-RCT/RAPID-OLE, the largest clinical trials of purified human α-1 proteinase inhibitor (A1 -PI; 60 mg kg-1  week-1 ) therapy completed to date, demonstrated for the first time that A1 -PI is clinically effective in slowing lung tissue loss in AATD. A posthoc pharmacometric analysis was undertaken to further explore dose, exposure and response. METHODS: A disease progression model was constructed, utilizing observed A1 -PI exposure and lung density decline rates (measured by computed tomography) from RAPID-RCT/RAPID-OLE, to predict effects of population variability and higher doses on A1 -PI exposure and clinical response. Dose-exposure and exposure-response relationships were characterized using nonlinear and linear mixed effects models, respectively. The dose-exposure model predicts summary exposures and not individual concentration kinetics; covariates included baseline serum A1 -PI, forced expiratory volume in 1 s and body weight. The exposure-response model relates A1 -PI exposure to lung density decline rate at varying exposure levels. RESULTS: A dose of 60 mg kg-1  week-1 achieved trough serum levels >11 µmol l-1 (putative 'protective threshold') in ≥98% patients. Dose-exposure-response simulations revealed increasing separation between A1 -PI and placebo in the proportions of patients achieving higher reductions in lung density decline rate; improvements in decline rates ≥0.5 g l-1  year-1 occurred more often in patients receiving A1 -PI: 63 vs. 12%. CONCLUSION: Weight-based A1 -PI dosing reliably raises serum levels above the 11 µmol l-1 threshold. However, our exposure-response simulations question whether this is the maximal, clinically effective threshold for A1 -PI therapy in AATD. The model suggested higher doses of A1 -PI would yield greater clinical effects.

Long-term efficacy and safety of α1 proteinase inhibitor treatment for emphysema caused by severe α1 antitrypsin deficiency: an open-label extension trial (RAPID-OLE).

BACKGROUND: Purified α1 proteinase inhibitor (A1PI) slowed emphysema progression in patients with severe α1 antitrypsin deficiency in a randomised controlled trial (RAPID-RCT), which was followed by an open-label extension trial (RAPID-OLE). The aim was to investigate the prolonged treatment effect of A1PI on the progression of emphysema as assessed by the loss of lung density in relation to RAPID-RCT. METHODS: Patients who had received either A1PI treatment (Zemaira or Respreeza; early-start group) or placebo (delayed-start group) in the RAPID-RCT trial were included in this 2-year open-label extension trial (RAPID-OLE). Patients from 22 hospitals in 11 countries outside of the USA received 60 mg/kg per week A1PI. The primary endpoint was annual rate of adjusted 15th percentile lung density loss measured using CT in the intention-to-treat population with a mixed-effects regression model. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00670007. FINDINGS: Between March 1, 2006, and Oct 13, 2010, 140 patients from RAPID-RCT entered RAPID-OLE: 76 from the early-start group and 64 from the delayed-start group. Between day 1 and month 24 (RAPID-RCT), the rate of lung density loss in RAPID-OLE patients was lower in the early-start group (-1·51 g/L per year [SE 0·25] at total lung capacity [TLC]; -1·55 g/L per year [0·24] at TLC plus functional residual capacity [FRC]; and -1·60 g/L per year [0·26] at FRC) than in the delayed-start group (-2·26 g/L per year [0·27] at TLC; -2·16 g/L per year [0·26] at TLC plus FRC, and -2·05 g/L per year [0·28] at FRC). Between months 24 and 48, the rate of lung density loss was reduced in delayed-start patients (from -2·26 g/L per year to -1·26 g/L per year), but no significant difference was seen in the rate in early-start patients during this time period (-1·51 g/L per year to -1·63 g/L per year), thus in early-start patients the efficacy was sustained to month 48. INTERPRETATION: RAPID-OLE supports the continued efficacy of A1PI in slowing disease progression during 4 years of treatment. Lost lung density was never recovered, highlighting the importance of early intervention with A1PI treatment. FUNDING: CSL Behring.

The Effect of Alpha-1 Proteinase Inhibitor on Biomarkers of Elastin Degradation in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency: An Analysis of the RAPID/RAPID Extension Trials.

The RAPID (NCT00261833; N=180) and RAPID Extension (NCT00670007; N=140) trials demonstrated significantly reduced lung density decline in patients with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) receiving alpha-1 proteinase inhibitor (A1PI) versus placebo. Desmosine and isodesmosine (DES/IDES) are unique crosslinkers of mature elastin fibers and are utilized as measures of elastin degradation. The aim of this post-hoc study was to determine the effect of A1PI therapy on DES/IDES levels in patients from RAPID/RAPID Extension. Plasma levels of DES/IDES were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry. Correlation between changes in DES/IDES levels and computed tomography (CT) lung density decline was assessed. Analysis showed that DES/IDES levels were significantly reduced versus baseline in patients receiving A1PI at all time points, from month 3 through month 48. A significant increase from baseline in DES/IDES was observed with placebo at month 24 (n=54; 0.016; p=0.018). DES/IDES change from baseline was significantly different with A1PI versus placebo at months 3 (-0.021; 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.037, 0.004; p=0.026), 12 (-0.040; 95% CI -0.055, 0.025; p<0.001), and 24 (-0.052; 95% CI -0.070, 0.034; p<0.001). Placebo patients started A1PI therapy at month 24 and showed significant reductions in plasma DES/IDES at months 36 (p<0.001) and 48 (p<0.001). Reduced elastin degradation was associated with slower lung density decline (p=0.005), correlating a chemical index of therapy with an anatomical index by CT. In conclusion, A1PI therapy reduced elastin degradation, including pulmonary elastin, in patients with AATD. These data support using DES/IDES levels as biomarkers to monitor emphysema progression and treatment response.

Intravenous augmentation treatment and lung density in severe α1 antitrypsin deficiency (RAPID): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of α1 proteinase inhibitor (A1PI) augmentation treatment for α1 antitrypsin deficiency has not been substantiated by a randomised, placebo-controlled trial. CT-measured lung density is a more sensitive measure of disease progression in α1 antitrypsin deficiency emphysema than spirometry is, so we aimed to assess the efficacy of augmentation treatment with this measure. METHODS: The RAPID study was a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial of A1PI treatment in patients with α1 antitrypsin deficiency. We recruited eligible non-smokers (aged 18-65 years) in 28 international study centres in 13 countries if they had severe α1 antitrypsin deficiency (serum concentration <11 µM) with a forced expiratory volume in 1 s of 35-70% (predicted). We excluded patients if they had undergone, or were on the waiting list to undergo, lung transplantation, lobectomy, or lung volume-reduction surgery, or had selective IgA deficiency. We randomly assigned patients (1:1; done by Accovion) using a computerised pseudorandom number generator (block size of four) with centre stratification to receive A1PI intravenously 60 mg/kg per week or placebo for 24 months. All patients and study investigators (including those assessing outcomes) were unaware of treatment allocation throughout the study. Primary endpoints were CT lung density at total lung capacity (TLC) and functional residual capacity (FRC) combined, and the two separately, at 0, 3, 12, 21, and 24 months, analysed by modified intention to treat (patients needed at least one evaluable lung density measurement). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00261833. A 2-year open-label extension study was also completed (NCT00670007). FINDINGS: Between March 1, 2006, and Nov 3, 2010, we randomly allocated 93 (52%) patients A1PI and 87 (48%) placebo, analysing 92 in the A1PI group and 85 in the placebo group. The annual rate of lung density loss at TLC and FRC combined did not differ between groups (A1PI -1·50 g/L per year [SE 0·22]; placebo -2·12 g/L per year [0·24]; difference 0·62 g/L per year [95% CI -0·02 to 1·26], p=0·06). However, the annual rate of lung density loss at TLC alone was significantly less in patients in the A1PI group (-1·45 g/L per year [SE 0·23]) than in the placebo group (-2·19 g/L per year [0·25]; difference 0·74 g/L per year [95% CI 0·06-1·42], p=0·03), but was not at FRC alone (A1PI -1·54 g/L per year [0·24]; placebo -2·02 g/L per year [0·26]; difference 0·48 g/L per year [-0·22 to 1·18], p=0·18). Treatment-emergent adverse events were similar between groups, with 1298 occurring in 92 (99%) patients in the A1PI group and 1068 occuring in 86 (99%) in the placebo group. 71 severe treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 25 (27%) patients in the A1PI group and 58 occurred in 27 (31%) in the placebo group. One treatment-emergent adverse event leading to withdrawal from the study occurred in one patient (1%) in the A1PI group and ten occurred in four (5%) in the placebo group. One death occurred in the A1PI group (respiratory failure) and three occurred in the placebo group (sepsis, pneumonia, and metastatic breast cancer). INTERPRETATION: Measurement of lung density with CT at TLC alone provides evidence that purified A1PI augmentation slows progression of emphysema, a finding that could not be substantiated by lung density measurement at FRC alone or by the two measurements combined. These findings should prompt consideration of augmentation treatment to preserve lung parenchyma in individuals with emphysema secondary to severe α1 antitrypsin deficiency. FUNDING: CSL Behring.

Clinical Trial Design for Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency: A Model for Rare Diseases.

Clinical research in rare diseases, including alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD), faces challenges not shared by common disease research. These challenges may include the limited number of patient volunteers available for research, lack of natural history studies on which to base many clinical trial interventions, an urgency for the development of drug therapies given the often poor prognosis of rare diseases and uncertainties about appropriate biomarkers and clinical outcomes critical to clinical trial design. To address these challenges and initiate formal discussions among key stakeholders-patients, researchers, industry, federal regulators-the Alpha-1 Foundation hosted the Clinical Trial Design for Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency: A Model for Rare Diseases conference February 3-4, 2014 in Bethesda, Maryland. Discussions at the conference led to the conclusions that 1) adaptive designs should be considered for rare disease clinical trials yet more dialogue and study is needed to make these designs feasible for smaller trials and to address current limitations; 2) natural history studies, including the identification of appropriate biomarkers are critically needed and precompetitive collaborations may offer a means of creating these costly studies; and 3) patient registries and databases within the rare disease community need to be more publicly available and integrated, particularly for AATD. This report summarizes the discussions leading to these conclusions.

Serial assessment of the electrocardiographic strain pattern for prediction of new-onset heart failure during antihypertensive treatment: the LIFE study.

AIMS: Although the presence of the electrocardiographic (ECG) strain pattern has been associated with an increased risk of developing heart failure (HF), the relationship of regression vs. persistence vs. development of new ECG strain to subsequent HF is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: Electrocardiographic strain was evaluated at baseline and at year-1 in 7265 hypertensive patients without HF treated with atenolol- or losartan-based regimens. During 3.9 ± 0.7 years of follow-up after the year-1 ECG, 154 patients (2.1%) were hospitalized for HF. Five-year HF incidence was lowest in patients with no ECG strain (1.6%), intermediate in patients with regression of strain (5.4%), and highest in patients with persistent (7.1%) or new strain (7.0%; P< 0.0001 across groups). In the Cox multivariable analyses adjusting for the known predictive value of in-treatment ECG left ventricular hypertrophy by the Cornell product and Sokolow-Lyon voltage, in-treatment QRS duration, systolic and diastolic pressure, incident myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation, randomized treatment and other risk factors for HF, regression of strain [hazards ratio (HR) 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-5.0], persistence of strain (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.2), and development of new ECG strain (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.4) were all independently associated with an increased risk of new HF compared with the absence of ECG strain on both baseline and year-1 ECGs. CONCLUSION: The development of new ECG strain or persistence of ECG strain between baseline and year-1 is associated with an increased risk of HF. The regression of ECG strain between baseline and year-1 does not convey a decreased risk of HF. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00338260.

The Back to School asthma study: the effect of montelukast on asthma burden when initiated prophylactically at the start of the school year.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric asthma hospitalizations peak in early autumn. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of montelukast therapy in reducing the asthma burden in children when initiated prophylactically on school return. METHODS: This was a randomized, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of children with asthma aged 6 to 14 years. No minimum asthma symptoms were required, and patients could continue inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use. Montelukast, 5 mg, chewable tablet (n = 580) or matching placebo (n = 582) was taken the night before the first day of school and nightly thereafter for 8 weeks. The primary end point was the percentage of days with worsening asthma, defined by one of the following: (1) increased beta-agonist use, (2) increased daytime symptoms, (3) awake "all night," (4) oral corticosteroid rescue or increased ICS use for worsening asthma, or (5) unanticipated health care utilization. RESULTS: The reduction in the percentage of days with worsening asthma with montelukast use versus placebo use was not significant (24.3% vs 27.2%, P = .07). Prespecified subgroup analyses demonstrated nonsignificant trends favoring montelukast therapy in boys and older children but no effect by baseline ICS use or history of cold symptoms. Post hoc analysis showed a nonsignificant trend favoring montelukast therapy in reducing worsening asthma days for children commencing school after August 15 compared with earlier commencement. CONCLUSIONS: Montelukast use was not significantly more effective than was placebo use in reducing the percentage of days with worsening asthma when initiated at the start of the school year. The effect of montelukast treatment on the fall peak in asthma burden may depend on sex, age, and the date of school return.

All-cause and cardiovascular mortality in relation to changing heart rate during treatment of hypertensive patients with electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy.

BACKGROUND: Although higher heart rate (HR) at baseline has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality, the relationship of in-treatment HR over time to mortality in hypertensive patients with ECG left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has not been examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: Heart rate was evaluated over time in 9190 hypertensive patients treated with losartan- or atenolol-based regimens and followed with annual ECGs. During a mean follow-up of 4.8 ± 0.9 years, 814 patients (8.9%) died, 438 (4.8%) from CV causes. In univariate Cox analyses, every 10 bpm higher HR on in-treatment ECGs was associated with a 25% increased risk of CV death [95% confidence interval (CI): 14-32%] and a 27% greater risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 21-34%). In an alternative analysis, persistence or development of a HR ≥ 84 bpm (upper quintile of baseline HR) was associated with an 89% greater risk of CV death (95% CI: 49-141%) and a 97% increased risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 65-135%). After adjusting for treatment with losartan vs. atenolol, baseline risk factors for death, baseline HR, baseline and in-treatment systolic and diastolic pressure, incident myocardial infarction, and the known predictive value of baseline and in-treatment QRS duration and ECG LVH, higher in-treatment HR in time-varying multivariable Cox models remained strongly predictive of mortality: every 10 bpm higher HR was associated with a 16% increased adjusted risk of CV mortality (95% CI: 6-27%) and a 25% greater risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 17-33%), with persistence or development of a HR ≥ 84 associated with a 55% greater risk of CV death (95% CI: 16-105%) and a 79% greater adjusted risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 46-121%). CONCLUSION: Higher in-treatment HR on serial ECGs predicts greater likelihood of subsequent CV or all-cause mortality, independent of treatment modality, blood pressure lowering, regression of ECG LVH and changing QRS duration in hypertensive patients with ECG LVH. These findings support the value of serial assessment of HR for improved risk stratification in hypertensive patients. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00338260?order=1cp.

Greater regression of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy during hydrochlorothiazide therapy in hypertensive patients.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of hypertensive patients with a losartan-based regimen was associated with greater regression of electrocardiographic (ECG) left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) than atenolol-based therapy in the Losartan Intervention for Endpoint Reduction in Hypertension (LIFE) study, independent of blood pressure (BP) changes. However, whether concomitant hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) therapy in >70% of LIFE patients was associated with greater regression of LVH independent of BP changes and whether this effect differed between treatment arms has not been examined. METHODS: Changes in Cornell product and Sokolow-Lyon voltage LVH were assessed in 9,193 hypertensive patients randomly assigned to treatment with losartan or atenolol, with additional HCTZ therapy added as necessary to achieve target BP goal per study protocol. RESULTS: After controlling for baseline and change in systolic and diastolic pressure, age, sex, race, prior antihypertensive treatment, baseline and year-4 body mass index and baseline LVH by either Cornell product or Sokolow-Lyon voltage, at year-4 follow-up HCTZ therapy was associated with greater regression of Cornell product LVH (-244 +/- 788 vs. -172 +/- 771 mm.msec, P < 0.05) and Sokolow-Lyon voltage (-4.2 +/- 6.7 vs. -3.0 +/- 7.0 mm, P < 0.001) and this effect was significantly greater in patients on losartan (-341 +/- 743 vs. -189 +/- 775 mm.msec and -5.2 +/- 6.6 vs. -3.3 +/- 6.6 mm) than in patients on atenolol (-142 +/- 822 vs. -158 +/- 765 mm.msec and -3.1 +/- 6.6 vs. -2.7 +/- 7.4 mm; both P < 0.001 for interaction of HCTZ with losartan vs. atenolol therapy). CONCLUSIONS: HCTZ use was associated with greater regression of ECG LVH and this effect was greater in patients on losartan- than atenolol-based therapy, independent of baseline severity of ECG LVH and hypertension and changes in BP.

Effect of ACE insertion/deletion and 12 other polymorphisms on clinical outcomes and response to treatment in the LIFE study.

OBJECTIVE: This pharmacogenetics substudy from the Losartan Intervention for Endpoint reduction in Hypertension study in patients with hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) treated with the angiotensin receptor blocker losartan versus the beta-blocker atenolol for 4.8 years tested whether the insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene and 12 other previously well-characterized polymorphisms of hypertension susceptibility genes affected blood pressure reduction, heart rate reduction, cardiovascular events, and/or response to treatment. These polymorphisms were chosen because they could affect blood pressure control or the pharmacological action of losartan or atenolol. METHODS: We genotyped 3503 patients, 1774 on losartan and 1729 on atenolol. RESULTS: ACE and the 12 other genotypes did not affect the reduction in systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, mean arterial pressure, or heart rate, or treatment differences between losartan and atenolol on these endpoints, as assessed by general linear models. Also, ACE and the 12 other genotypes did not affect risk of the primary composite endpoint or its components stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death, or treatment differences between losartan and atenolol on these endpoints, as assessed by Cox proportional hazards models including baseline Framingham risk score and LVH. CONCLUSION: ACE insertion/deletion and 12 other polymorphisms of hypertension susceptibility genes did not affect blood pressure reduction, heart rate reduction, or cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension and LVH, or treatment differences between losartan and atenolol on these endpoints. These results suggest that the observed effects of losartan versus atenolol in the Losartan Intervention for Endpoint reduction in hypertension study do not depend on ACE and 12 other polymorphisms of hypertension susceptibility genes.

Predictors of cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy: the Losartan Intervention for Endpoint reduction in hypertension study.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed readily available patient characteristics, including albuminuria (not included in traditional cardiovascular risk scores), as predictors of cardiovascular events in hypertension with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and developed risk algorithms/scores for outcomes. METHODS: The Losartan Intervention For Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) study compared effects of losartan-based versus atenolol-based therapy on cardiovascular events in 9193 patients with hypertension and LVH. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified baseline variables with significant impact on development of the primary composite endpoint (cardiovascular death, stroke and myocardial infarction) and its components. Multivariate analysis used a Cox regression model with stepwise selection process. Risk scores were developed from coefficients of risk factors from the multivariate analysis, validated internally using naïve and jack-knife procedures, checked for discrimination and calibration, and compared with Framingham coronary heart disease and other risk scores. RESULTS: LIFE risk scores showed increasing endpoint rates with increasing quintile (first to fifth quintile, composite endpoint 2.8-26.7%, cardiovascular death 0.5-14.4%, stroke 1.2-11.3%, myocardial infarction 1.4-8.1%) and were confirmed with a jack-knife approach that adjusts for potentially optimistic bias. The Framingham coronary heart disease and other risk scores overestimated risk in lower risk patients and underestimated risk in higher risk patients, except for myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: A number of patient characteristics predicted cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension and LVH. Risk scores developed from these patient characteristics, including albuminuria, strongly predicted outcomes and may improve risk assessment of patients with hypertension and LVH and planning of clinical trials.

Incidence of heart failure in relation to QRS duration during antihypertensive therapy: the LIFE study.

BACKGROUND: Prolonged QRS duration (QRS) has been associated with left ventricular dyssynchrony and dysfunction and with the development of heart failure. However, whether persistence or development of increased QRS over time is associated with an increased incidence of heart failure in hypertensive patients, independent of blood pressure lowering and regression of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has not been examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: The relation of QRS over time to incident heart failure was examined in 8945 hypertensive patients without history of heart failure who were randomly assigned to losartan-based or atenolol-based treatment. During 4.7 +/- 1.1 years follow-up, heart failure hospitalization occurred in 282 patients (3.2%): in 157 with in-treatment QRS less than 110 ms (4.6 per 1000 patient-years) and in 125 with persistence or development of QRS 110 ms or more (13.4 per 1000 patient-years). In univariate Cox analyses in which QRS during the study was entered as a time-varying covariate, in-treatment persistence or development of a QRS 110 ms or more was associated with a 153% increased risk of developing heart failure [hazard ratio 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.00-3.20]. After adjusting for treatment, baseline risk factors for heart failure, incident myocardial infarction and for baseline and in-treatment electrocardiographic LVH and blood pressure, persistence or development of a QRS 110 ms or more remained associated with a 102% increased risk of new-onset heart failure (hazard ratio 2.02, 95% CI 1.49-2.74). CONCLUSION: Persistence or development of a prolonged QRS during antihypertensive therapy is associated with an increased likelihood of new-onset heart failure, independent of blood pressure lowering, treatment modality and regression of electrocardiographic LVH in patients with essential hypertension. These findings suggest that serial assessment of QRS over time can be used to track the risk of heart failure in hypertensive patients.

Prognostic value of changes in the electrocardiographic strain pattern during antihypertensive treatment: the Losartan Intervention for End-Point Reduction in Hypertension Study (LIFE).

BACKGROUND: The presence of the ECG strain pattern of lateral ST depression and T-wave inversion at baseline has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality; however, the independent predictive value for cardiovascular outcomes of regression versus persistence versus development of new ECG strain during antihypertensive therapy is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: ECG strain was evaluated at baseline and after 1 year of therapy in 7409 hypertensive patients in the LIFE study (Losartan Intervention For End-point reduction in hypertension) treated in a blinded manner with atenolol- or losartan-based regimens. During 3.8+/-0.8 years of follow-up after the year 1 ECG, cardiovascular death occurred in 236 patients (3.2%), myocardial infarction in 198 (2.7%), stroke in 313 (4.2%), the LIFE composite end point of these 3 events in 600 (8.1%), sudden death in 92 (1.2%), and death due to any cause in 486 (6.6%). Strain was absent on both baseline and year 1 ECGs in 6323 patients (85.3%), regressed from baseline to year 1 in 245 (3.3%), persisted on both ECGs in 549 (7.4%), and was absent at baseline but developed by year 1 in 292 patients (3.9%). Compared with absence of strain on both ECGs, development of new ECG strain was associated with 2.8- to 4.7-fold higher event rates; patients with regression or persistence of strain had intermediate event rates. In Cox multivariable analyses with adjustment for the known predictive value of in-treatment ECG left ventricular hypertrophy by Cornell product and Sokolow-Lyon voltage, in-treatment systolic and diastolic pressure, randomized treatment, and standard cardiovascular risk factors, development of new ECG strain was independently associated with increased risks of cardiovascular death (hazard ratio [HR] 2.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.56 to 3.76), myocardial infarction (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.11 to 3.44), stroke (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.30 to 3.01), the LIFE composite end point (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.78), sudden cardiac death (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.06 to 4.53), and all-cause mortality (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.69), whereas the risk associated with regression or persistence of strain was attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: Development of new ECG strain is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and of all-cause mortality in the setting of antihypertensive therapy and regression of ECG left ventricular hypertrophy.

Gender differences in regression of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy during antihypertensive therapy.

Although men and women differ in the magnitude of ECG left ventricular hypertrophy, whether gender differences exist in the degree of regression of ECG left ventricular hypertrophy during antihypertensive therapy is unclear. ECG left ventricular hypertrophy defined using gender-adjusted Cornell product and Sokolow-Lyon voltage criteria was assessed serially in 9193 hypertensive patients treated with losartan- or atenolol-based regimens. Changes in ECG left ventricular hypertrophy were measured from baseline to last in-study visit, and above-average regression of hypertrophy was identified by a >or=236-mm . ms reduction in Cornell product or >or=3.5-mm reduction in Sokolow-Lyon voltage. During mean follow-up of 4.8+/-0.9 years, women had less reduction in Cornell product (-149+/-823 versus -251+/-890 mm . ms) and Sokolow-Lyon voltage (-3.0+/-6.8 versus -4.8+/-7.7 mm) than men (both P<0.001). After adjusting for baseline ECG left ventricular hypertrophy levels, baseline and change in systolic and diastolic pressures, treatment group, age, and other baseline gender differences, women had significantly less reduction in both Cornell product (adjusted means: -137 versus -276 mm . ms; P<0.001) and Sokolow-Lyon voltage (-3.6 versus -4.1 mm; P=0.005) than men and were 32% less likely to have had greater than the median level of regression of Cornell product left ventricular hypertrophy (95% CI: 24% to 39%; P<0.001) and 15% less likely to have had regression of left ventricular hypertrophy by Sokolow-Lyon criteria (95% CI: 5% to 23%; P=0.003). Thus, women have less regression of ECG left ventricular hypertrophy than men in response to antihypertensive therapy, independent of baseline gender differences in the severity of ECG left ventricular hypertrophy and after taking into account treatment effects and blood pressure changes.

Incidence of atrial fibrillation in relation to changing heart rate over time in hypertensive patients: the LIFE study.

BACKGROUND: Onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been linked to changes in autonomic tone, with increasing heart rate (HR) immediately before AF onset in some patients suggesting a possible role of acute increases in sympathetic activity in AF onset. Although losartan therapy and decreasing ECG left ventricular hypertrophy are associated with decreased AF incidence, the relationship of HR changes over time to development of AF has not been examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: HR was evaluated in 8828 hypertensive patients without AF by history or on baseline ECG in the Losartan Intervention for End Point Reduction in Hypertension (LIFE) study. Patients were treated with losartan- or atenolol-based regimens and followed with serial ECGs annually which were used to determine HR and ECG left ventricular hypertrophy by Cornell product and Sokolow-Lyon voltage criteria. During mean follow-up of 4.7+/-1.1 years, new-onset AF occurred in 701 patients (7.9%). Patients with new AF had smaller decreases in HR to last in-treatment ECG or last ECG before AF (-2.7+/-13.5 versus -5.2+/-12.5 bpm), whether on losartan- (-0.4+/-13.5 versus -2.2+/-11.7 bpm) or atenolol-based treatment (-5.3+/-12.8 versus -8.3+/-12.6 bpm, all P<0.001). In univariate Cox analyses, higher HR on in-treatment ECGs was associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF, with a 15% greater risk of AF for every 10 bpm higher HR (95% CI 8% to 22%). In alternative analyses, persistence or development of a HR> or =84 (upper quintile of baseline HR) was associated with a 46% greater risk of developing AF (95% CI 19% to 80%). After adjusting for treatment with losartan versus atenolol, baseline risk factors for AF, baseline and in-treatment systolic and diastolic pressure and the known predictive value of baseline and in-treatment ECG left ventricular hypertrophy for new AF, higher in-treatment HR remained strongly associated with new AF with a 19% higher risk for every 10 bpm higher HR (95% CI 10% to 28%) or a 61% increased rate of AF in patients with persistence or development of a HR> or =84 (95% CI 27% to 104%, all P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Higher in-treatment HR on serial ECGs is associated with an increased likelihood of new-onset AF, independent of treatment modality, blood pressure lowering, and regression of ECG left ventricular hypertrophy in patients with essential hypertension.