The Spread of Beliefs in Partially Modularized Communities.

Many life-influencing social networks are characterized by considerable informational isolation. People within a community are far more likely to share beliefs than people who are part of different communities. The spread of useful information across communities is impeded by echo chambers (far greater connectivity within than between communities) and filter bubbles (more influence of beliefs by connected neighbors within than between communities). We apply the tools of network analysis to organize our understanding of the spread of beliefs across modularized communities and to predict the effect of individual and group parameters on the dynamics and distribution of beliefs. In our Spread of Beliefs in Modularized Communities (SBMC) framework, a stochastic block model generates social networks with variable degrees of modularity, beliefs have different observable utilities, individuals change their beliefs on the basis of summed or average evidence (or intermediate decision rules), and parameterized stochasticity introduces randomness into decisions. SBMC simulations show surprising patterns; for example, increasing out-group connectivity does not always improve group performance, adding randomness to decisions can promote performance, and decision rules that sum rather than average evidence can improve group performance, as measured by the average utility of beliefs that the agents adopt. Overall, the results suggest that intermediate degrees of belief exploration are beneficial for the spread of useful beliefs in a community, and so parameters that pull in opposite directions on an explore-exploit continuum are usefully paired.

Misinformation and Public Health Messaging in the Early Stages of the Mpox Outbreak: Mapping the Twitter Narrative With Deep Learning.

BACKGROUND: Shortly after the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, an outbreak of mpox introduced another critical public health emergency. Like the COVID-19 pandemic, the mpox outbreak was characterized by a rising prevalence of public health misinformation on social media, through which many US adults receive and engage with news. Digital misinformation continues to challenge the efforts of public health officials in providing accurate and timely information to the public. We examine the evolving topic distributions of social media narratives during the mpox outbreak to map the tension between rapidly diffusing misinformation and public health communication. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to observe topical themes occurring in a large-scale collection of tweets about mpox using deep learning. METHODS: We leveraged a data set comprised of all mpox-related tweets that were posted between May 7, 2022, and July 23, 2022. We then applied Sentence Bidirectional Encoder Representations From Transformers (S-BERT) to the content of each tweet to generate a representation of its content in high-dimensional vector space, where semantically similar tweets will be located closely together. We projected the set of tweet embeddings to a 2D map by applying principal component analysis and Uniform Manifold Approximation Projection (UMAP). Finally, we group these data points into 7 topical clusters using k-means clustering and analyze each cluster to determine its dominant topics. We analyze the prevalence of each cluster over time to evaluate longitudinal thematic changes. RESULTS: Our deep-learning pipeline revealed 7 distinct clusters of content: (1) cynicism, (2) exasperation, (3) COVID-19, (4) men who have sex with men, (5) case reports, (6) vaccination, and (7) World Health Organization (WHO). Clusters that largely communicated erroneous or irrelevant information began earlier and grew faster, reaching a wider audience than later communications by official instances and health officials. CONCLUSIONS: Within a few weeks of the first reported mpox cases, an avalanche of mostly false, misleading, irrelevant, or damaging information started to circulate on social media. Official institutions, including the WHO, acted promptly, providing case reports and accurate information within weeks, but were overshadowed by rapidly spreading social media chatter. Our results point to the need for real-time monitoring of social media content to optimize responses to public health emergencies.

Deep learning for topical trend discovery in online discourse about Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP).

Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) interventions are increasingly prevalent on social media. These data can be mined for insights about PrEP that may not be as apparent in surveys including personal musings about PrEP and barriers/facilitators to PrEP uptake. This study explores online discourse about PrEP using an interdisciplinary public health and computational informatics approach. We collected (N = 4,020) tweets using Twitter's Application Programming Interface (API). These data underwent a three-step neural network/deep learning process to identify clusters within these tweets and relative similarity/dissimilarity between clusters. We identified 25 distinct clusters from our original collection of tweets. These clusters represent general information about PrEP, how PrEP is communicated among diverse groups, and potential pockets of misinformation and disinformation regarding PrEP. Specific clusters of interest include discussions of medication side effects, social perception of PrEP usage, and concerns with costs and barriers to access of PrEP interventions. Our approach revealed diverse ways PrEP is contextualized online. Importantly this information can be leveraged to identify points of possible intervention for disinformation and misinformation about PrEP.

Sociodemographics and Transdiagnostic Mental Health Symptoms in SOCIAL (Studies of Online Cohorts for Internalizing Symptoms and Language) I and II: Cross-sectional Survey and Botometer Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Internalizing, externalizing, and somatoform disorders are the most common and disabling forms of psychopathology. Our understanding of these clinical problems is limited by a reliance on self-report along with research using small samples. Social media has emerged as an exciting channel for collecting a large sample of longitudinal data from individuals to study psychopathology. OBJECTIVE: This study reported the results of 2 large ongoing studies in which we collected data from Twitter and self-reported clinical screening scales, the Studies of Online Cohorts for Internalizing Symptoms and Language (SOCIAL) I and II. METHODS: The participants were a sample of Twitter-using adults (SOCIAL I: N=1123) targeted to be nationally representative in terms of age, sex assigned at birth, race, and ethnicity, as well as a sample of college students in the Midwest (SOCIAL II: N=1988), of which 61.78% (1228/1988) were Twitter users. For all participants who were Twitter users, we asked for access to their Twitter handle, which we analyzed using Botometer, which rates the likelihood of an account belonging to a bot. We divided participants into 4 groups: Twitter users who did not give us their handle or gave us invalid handles (invalid), those who denied being Twitter users (no Twitter, only available for SOCIAL II), Twitter users who gave their handles but whose accounts had high bot scores (bot-like), and Twitter users who provided their handles and had low bot scores (valid). We explored whether there were significant differences among these groups in terms of their sociodemographic features, clinical symptoms, and aspects of social media use (ie, platforms used and time). RESULTS: In SOCIAL I, most individuals were classified as valid (580/1123, 51.65%), and a few were deemed bot-like (190/1123, 16.91%). A total of 31.43% (353/1123) gave no handle or gave an invalid handle (eg, entered "N/A"). In SOCIAL II, many individuals were not Twitter users (760/1988, 38.23%). Of the Twitter users in SOCIAL II (1228/1988, 61.78%), most were classified as either invalid (515/1228, 41.94%) or valid (484/1228, 39.41%), with a smaller fraction deemed bot-like (229/1228, 18.65%). Participants reported high rates of mental health diagnoses as well as high levels of symptoms, especially in SOCIAL II. In general, the differences between individuals who provided or did not provide their social media handles were small and not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Triangulating passively acquired social media data and self-reported questionnaires offers new possibilities for large-scale assessment and evaluation of vulnerability to mental disorders. The propensity of participants to share social media handles is likely not a source of sample bias in subsequent social media analytics.