Quantifying variances in comparative RNA secondary structure prediction.

BACKGROUND: With the advancement of next-generation sequencing and transcriptomics technologies, regulatory effects involving RNA, in particular RNA structural changes are being detected. These results often rely on RNA secondary structure predictions. However, current approaches to RNA secondary structure modelling produce predictions with a high variance in predictive accuracy, and we have little quantifiable knowledge about the reasons for these variances. RESULTS: In this paper we explore a number of factors which can contribute to poor RNA secondary structure prediction quality. We establish a quantified relationship between alignment quality and loss of accuracy. Furthermore, we define two new measures to quantify uncertainty in alignment-based structure predictions. One of the measures improves on the "reliability score" reported by PPfold, and considers alignment uncertainty as well as base-pair probabilities. The other measure considers the information entropy for SCFGs over a space of input alignments. CONCLUSIONS: Our predictive accuracy improves on the PPfold reliability score. We can successfully characterize many of the underlying reasons for and variances in poor prediction. However, there is still variability unaccounted for, which we therefore suggest comes from the RNA secondary structure predictive model itself.

StatAlign 2.0: combining statistical alignment with RNA secondary structure prediction.

MOTIVATION: Comparative modeling of RNA is known to be important for making accurate secondary structure predictions. RNA structure prediction tools such as PPfold or RNAalifold use an aligned set of sequences in predictions. Obtaining a multiple alignment from a set of sequences is quite a challenging problem itself, and the quality of the alignment can affect the quality of a prediction. By implementing RNA secondary structure prediction in a statistical alignment framework, and predicting structures from multiple alignment samples instead of a single fixed alignment, it may be possible to improve predictions. RESULTS: We have extended the program StatAlign to make use of RNA-specific features, which include RNA secondary structure prediction from multiple alignments using either a thermodynamic approach (RNAalifold) or a Stochastic Context-Free Grammars (SCFGs) approach (PPfold). We also provide the user with scores relating to the quality of a secondary structure prediction, such as information entropy values for the combined space of secondary structures and sampled alignments, and a reliability score that predicts the expected number of correctly predicted base pairs. Finally, we have created RNA secondary structure visualization plugins and automated the process of setting up Markov Chain Monte Carlo runs for RNA alignments in StatAlign. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The software is available from http://statalign.github.com/statalign/.