ABSTRACT
The rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 mutants with new phenotypic properties is a critical challenge to the control of the ongoing pandemic. B.1.1.7 was monitored in the UK through routine testing and S-gene target failures (SGTF), comprising over 90% of cases by March 2021. Now, the reverse is occurring: SGTF cases are being replaced by an S-gene positive variant, which we associate with B.1.617.2. Evidence from the characteristics of S-gene positive cases demonstrates that, following importation, B.1.617.2 is transmitted locally, growing at a rate higher than B.1.1.7 and a doubling time between 5-14 days. S-gene positive cases should be prioritised for sequencing and aggressive control in any countries in which this variant is newly detected. One-Sentence SummaryThe B.1.617.2 variant of SARS-CoV-2 is replacing B.1.1.7 and emerging as the dominant variant in England, evidenced by sustained local transmission.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundEfforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite period. Government agencies are presently analysing how best to develop an exit strategy from these measures and to determine how the epidemic may progress once measures are lifted. Mathematical models are currently providing short and long term forecasts regarding the future course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to support evidence-based policymaking. MethodsWe present a deterministic, age-structured transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to provide up-to-date predictions on epidemic spread in ten regions of the UK. The model captures a range of age-dependent heterogeneities, reduced transmission from asymptomatic infections and produces a good fit to the key epidemic features over time. We simulated a suite of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures from 7th May 2020, on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment, and deaths. With regard to future epidemic outcomes, we investigated the impact of reducing compliance, ongoing shielding of elder age groups, reapplying stringent social distancing measures using region based triggers and the role of asymptomatic transmission. FindingsWe find that significant relaxation of social distancing measures from 7th May onwards can lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies, we projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic. The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required. DiscussionOur work confirms the effectiveness of stringent non-pharmaceutical measures in March 2020 to suppress the epidemic. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for a cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures, to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service through subduing demand on hospital beds, in particular bed occupancy in intensive care units.
ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was identified as the causative agent of the ongoing pandemic COVID 19. COVID-19-associated deaths are mainly attributed to severe pneumonia and respiratory failure. Recent work demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 binds to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in the lung. To better understand ACE2 abundance and expression patterns in the lung we interrogated our in-house single-cell RNA-sequencing dataset containing 70,085 EPCAM+ lung epithelial cells from paired normal and lung adenocarcinoma tissues. Transcriptomic analysis revealed a diverse repertoire of airway lineages that included alveolar type I and II, bronchioalveolar, club/secretory, quiescent and proliferating basal, ciliated and malignant cells as well as rare populations such as ionocytes. While the fraction of lung epithelial cells expressing ACE2 was low (1.7% overall), alveolar type II (AT2, 2.2% ACE2+) cells exhibited highest levels of ACE2 expression among all cell subsets. Further analysis of the AT2 compartment (n = 27,235 cells) revealed a number of genes co-expressed with ACE2 that are important for lung pathobiology including those associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; HHIP), pneumonia and infection (FGG and C4BPA) as well as malarial/bacterial (CD36) and viral (DMBT1) scavenging which, for the most part, were increased in smoker versus light or non-smoker cells. Notably, DMBT1 was highly expressed in AT2 cells relative to other lung epithelial subsets and its expression positively correlated with ACE2. We describe a population of ACE2-positive AT2 cells that co-express pathogen (including viral) receptors (e.g. DMBT1) with crucial roles in host defense thus comprising plausible phenotypic targets for treatment of COVID-19.
