Difficulty and help with activities of daily living among older adults living alone with cognitive impairment.

INTRODUCTION: There is limited research on difficulties with activities of daily living (I/ADLs) among older adults living alone with cognitive impairment, including differences by race/ethnicity. METHODS: For U.S. Health and Retirement Study (2000-2014) participants aged 55+ living alone with cognitive impairment (4,666 individuals; 9,091 observations), we evaluated I/ADL difficulty and help. RESULTS: Among 4.3 million adults aged 55+ living alone with cognitive impairment, an estimated 46% reported an I/ADL difficulty; 72% reported not receiving help with an I/ADL. Women reported more difficulty than men. Compared to white women, black women were 22% more likely to report a difficulty without help, and Latina women were 36% more likely to report a difficulty with help. Among men, racial/ethnic differences in outcomes were not significant. Patterns of difficulty without help by race/ethnicity were similar among Medicaid beneficiaries. DISCUSSION: Findings call for targeted efforts to support older adults living alone with cognitive impairment.

If My Blood Pressure Is High, Do I Take It to Heart? Behavioral Effects of Biomarker Collection in the Health and Retirement Study.

Starting in 2006, respondents in the biennial U.S. Health and Retirement Study were asked to submit biomarkers every other wave and were notified of several results. Rates of undiagnosed high blood pressure and diabetes according to these biomarkers were 1.5 % and 0.7 %, respectively. An intent-to-treat analysis suggests that collection and notification had small effects on the average respondent and may have reduced health care utilization. Among respondents who received notification of potentially dangerous biomarker levels, subsequent rates of new diagnosis and associated pharmaceutical usage increased by 20 to 40 percentage points, an order of magnitude above baseline. High blood glucose A1C was associated with a 2.2 % drop in weight and an increase in exercise among respondents without a previous diagnosis of diabetes. Notifications appear also to have altered health behaviors by spouses, suggesting household responses to health maintenance. Biomarker collection seems to have altered circumstances for an interesting minority of HRS respondents.

Health, SES, and the Timing of Education Among Military Retirees.

The timing of education across the life cycle is differentially associated with older-age health outcomes and socioeconomic status among military retirees, a subpopulation with common levels of adolescent health but variation in educational timing. A year of education obtained before military service lowers the probability of poor health in retirement by 2.5 percentage points, while a year obtained after service reduces poor health by only 0.6 percentage point. By contrast, education raises income and wealth uniformly through vintage. This suggests that education improves health through fostering the lifelong accumulation of healthy behaviors and habits rather than raising income or wealth.

Commentary: U.S. mortality, geography, and the anti-social determinants of health.

Drug-related overdoses appear to be a major factor behind an historic pause or even a reversal in the predominant downward trend over time in U.S. mortality rates, a departure that is especially evident among non-Hispanic white females of middle age. The new geography of accidental poisoning deaths and their covariates suggests that we should reassess traditional policies and perspectives in order to combat this threat to public health.

U.S. War Costs: Two Parts Temporary, One Part Permanent.

Military spending, fatalities, and the destruction of capital, all of which are immediately felt and are often large, are the most overt costs of war. They are also relatively short-lived. But the costs of war borne by combatants and their caretakers, which includes families, communities, and the modern welfare state, tend instead to be lifelong. In this paper I show that a significant component of the budgetary costs associated with U.S. wars is long-lived. One third to one half of the total present value of historical war costs are benefits distributed over the remaining life spans of veterans and their dependents. Even thirty years after the end of hostilities, typically half of all benefits remain to be paid. Estimates of the costs of injuries and deaths suggest that the private burden of war borne by survivors, namely the uncompensated costs of service-related injuries, are also large and long-lived.

Spinning the wheels and rolling the dice: life-cycle risks and benefits of bicycle commuting in the U.S.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the net impact on U.S. longevity of the decision to commute by bicycle rather than automobile. METHODS: We construct fatality rates per distance traveled using official statistics and denominators from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. We model the life-table impact of switching from auto to bicycle commuting. Key factors are increased risks from road accidents and reduced risks from enhanced cardiovascular health. RESULTS: Bicycling fatality rates in the U.S. are an order of magnitude higher than in Western Europe. Risks punish both young and old, while the health benefits guard against causes of mortality that rise rapidly with age. Although the protective effects of bicycling appear significant, it may be optimal to wait until later ages to initiate regular bicycle commuting in the current U.S. risk environment, especially if individuals discount future life years. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime health benefits of bicycle commuting appear to outweigh the risks in the U.S., but individuals who sufficiently discount or disbelieve the health benefits may delay or avoid bicycling. Bicycling in middle age avoids much fatality risk while capturing health benefits. Significant cross-state variations in bicycling mortality suggest that improvements in the built environment might spur changes in transit mode.

Medical costs of war in 2035: long-term care challenges for veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan.

War-related medical costs for U.S. veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan may be enormous because of differences between these wars and previous conflicts: (1) Many veterans survive injuries that would have killed them in past wars, and (2) improvised explosive device attacks have caused "polytraumatic" injuries (multiple amputations; brain injury; severe facial trauma or blindness) that require decades of costly rehabilitation. In 2035, today's veterans will be middle-aged, with health issues like those seen in aging Vietnam veterans, complicated by comorbidities of posttraumatic stress disorder, traumatic brain injury, and polytrauma. This article cites emerging knowledge about best practices that have demonstrated cost-effectiveness in mitigating the medical costs of war. We propose that clinicians employ early interventions (trauma care, physical therapy, early post-traumatic stress disorder diagnosis) and preventive health programs (smoking cessation, alcohol-abuse counseling, weight control, stress reduction) to treat primary medical conditions now so that we can avoid treating costly secondary and tertiary complications in 2035. (We should help an amputee reduce his cholesterol and maintain his weight at age 30, rather than treating his heart disease or diabetes at age 50.) Appropriate early interventions for primary illness should preserve veterans' functional status, ensure quality clinical care, and reduce the potentially enormous cost burden of their future health care.

The good, the bad, and the ugly of alcohol consumption and taxes.

The new contribution in these pages by Lhachimi et al. (2012) tallies up the net effects on mortality from internal and external causes that are likely to derive from changes in alcohol taxes in 11 countries within the European Union. Health economists prefer the efficiency of taxes to quotas or outright prohibition, but there are costs as well as benefits associated with any tax, because it drives a wedge between demanders and suppliers and thus reduces welfare. To guide public policy in this area, researchers should measure costs and benefits broadly defined, and Lhachimi et al. provide a useful first step.

Changes in world inequality in length of life: 1970­2000.

Previous research has revealed much global convergence over the past several decades in life expectancy at birth and in infant mortality, which are closely linked. But trends in the variance of length of life, and in the variance of length of adult life in particular, are less well understood. I examine life-span inequality in a comprehensive panel of 180 countries observed in 1970 and 2000. Convergence in infant mortality has unambiguously reduced world inequality in total length of life starting from birth, but world inequality in length of adult life has remained largely unchanged. Underlying both of these observations is a growing share of total inequality attributable to between-country variation. Especially among developed countries, the absolute level of between-country inequality has risen over time. The sources of widening inequality in length of life between countries remain unclear, but signs point away from changes in income, leaving patterns of knowledge diffusion as a likely candidate.

Commentary: Soda taxes, obesity, and the shifty behavior of consumers.

Rising obesity is a threat to public health, and taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce consumption and thus caloric intake could be a viable policy response. But raising the price of SSB calories will raise the quantity demanded of relatively cheaper calories, and net effect on obesity is unclear. I review the evidence on shifting calorie demand and discuss the viability of soda taxes to achieve improvements in public health.

Variance in Death and Its Implications for Modeling and Forecasting Mortality.

The slope and curvature of the survivorship function reflect the considerable amount of variance in length of life found in any human population. Part is due to the well-known variation in life expectancy between groups: large differences according to race, sex, socioeconomic status, or other covariates. But within-group variance is large even in narrowly defined groups, and changes substantially and inversely with the group average length of life. We show that variance in length of life is inversely related to the Gompertz slope of log mortality through age, and we reveal its relationship to variance in a multiplicative frailty index. Our findings bear a variety of implications for modeling and forecasting mortality. In particular, we examine how the assumption of proportional hazards fails to account adequately for differences in subgroup variance, and we discuss how several common forecasting models treat the variance along the temporal dimension.

The Pervasive Role of Rank in the Health of U.S. Veterans.

The following article tests the hypothesis that veterans have better health if they were officers when they were in the U.S. military than if they served in the enlisted ranks. It examines this hypothesis by presenting results from logistic regressions that are based on four surveys: the National Survey of Veterans, the Survey of Retired Military, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. In all four of these surveys, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that military rank is associated with health, particularly among veterans who served longer. It also suggests that the health gradient by rank is independent of similar gradients by education and income as well as health differences by race. These findings indicate that health may be influenced not just by differences in civilian society but also by those in the military.

Negative effects of paternal age on children's neurocognitive outcomes can be explained by maternal education and number of siblings.

BACKGROUND: Recent findings suggest advanced paternal age may be associated with impaired child outcomes, in particular, neurocognitive skills. Such patterns are worrisome given relatively universal trends in advanced countries toward delayed nuptiality and fertility. But nature and nurture are both important for child outcomes, and it is important to control for both when drawing inferences about either pathway. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined cross-sectional patterns in six developmental outcome measures among children in the U.S. Collaborative Perinatal Project (n = 31,346). Many of these outcomes at 8 mo, 4 y, and 7 y of age (Bayley scales, Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale, Graham-Ernhart Block Sort Test, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Wide Range Achievement Test) are negatively correlated with paternal age when important family characteristics such as maternal education and number of siblings are not included as covariates. But controlling for family characteristics in general and mother's education in particular renders the effect of paternal age statistically insignificant for most developmental measures. CONCLUSIONS: Assortative mating produces interesting relationships between maternal and paternal characteristics that can inject spurious correlation into observational studies via omitted variable bias. Controlling for both nature and nurture reveals little residual evidence of a link between child neurocognitive outcomes and paternal age in these data. Results suggest that benefits associated with the upward trend in maternal education may offset any negative effects of advancing paternal age.

The Cost of Uncertain Life Span.

A considerable amount of uncertainty surrounds the length of human life. The standard deviation in adult life span is about 15 years in the U.S., and theory and evidence suggest it is costly. I calibrate a utility-theoretic model of preferences over length of life and show that one fewer year in standard deviation is worth about half a mean life year. Differences in the standard deviation exacerbate cross-sectional differences in life expectancy between the U.S. and other industrialized countries, between rich and poor countries, and among poor countries. Accounting for the cost of life-span variance also appears to amplify recently discovered patterns of convergence in world average human well-being. This is partly for methodological reasons and partly because unconditional variance in human length of life, primarily the component due to infant mortality, has exhibited even more convergence than life expectancy.

Public transit, obesity, and medical costs: assessing the magnitudes.

OBJECTIVE: This paper assesses the potential benefits of increased walking and reduced obesity associated with taking public transit in terms of dollars of medical costs saved and disability avoided. METHODS: I conduct a new analysis of a nationally representative U.S. transportation survey to gauge the net increase in walking associated with public transit usage. I translate minutes spent walking into energy expenditures and reductions in obesity prevalence, estimating the present value of costs and disability that may be avoided. RESULTS: Taking public transit is associated with walking 8.3 more minutes per day on average, or an additional 25.7-39.0 kcal. Hill et al. [Hill, J.O., Wyatt, H.R., Reed, G.W., Peters, J.C., 2003. Obesity and the environment: Where do we go from here? Science 299 (5608), 853-855] estimate that an increase in net expenditure of 100 kcal/day can stop the increase in obesity in 90% of the population. Additional walking associated with public transit could save $5500 per person in present value by reducing obesity-related medical costs. Savings in quality-adjusted life years could be even higher. CONCLUSIONS: While no silver bullet, walking associated with public transit can have a substantial impact on obesity, costs, and well-being. Further research is warranted on the net impact of transit usage on all behaviors, including caloric intake and other types of exercise, and on whether policies can promote transit usage at acceptable cost.