Radionuclides in fruit systems: model prediction-experimental data intercomparison study.

This paper presents results from an international exercise undertaken to test model predictions against an independent data set for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit. Six models with various structures and complexity participated in this exercise. Predictions from these models were compared against independent experimental measurements on the transfer of 134Cs and 85Sr via leaf-to-fruit and soil-to-fruit in strawberry plants after an acute release. Foliar contamination was carried out through wet deposition on the plant at two different growing stages, anthesis and ripening, while soil contamination was effected at anthesis only. In the case of foliar contamination, predicted values are within the same order of magnitude as the measured values for both radionuclides, while in the case of soil contamination models tend to under-predict by up to three orders of magnitude for 134Cs, while differences for 85Sr are lower. Performance of models against experimental data is discussed together with the lessons learned from this exercise.

Radionuclides in fruit systems: model-model intercomparison study.

Modeling is widely used to predict radionuclide distribution following accidental radionuclide releases. Modeling is crucial in emergency response planning and risk communication, and understanding model uncertainty is important not only in conducting analysis consistent with current regulatory guidance, but also in gaining stakeholder and decision-maker trust in the process and confidence in the results. However, while methods for dealing with parameter uncertainty are fairly well developed, an adequate representation of uncertainties associated with models remains rare. This paper addresses uncertainty about a model's structure (i.e., the relevance of simplifying assumptions and mathematical equations) that is seldom addressed in practical applications of environmental modeling. The use of several alternative models to derive a range of model outputs or risks is probably the only available technique to assess consistency in model prediction. Since each independent model requires significant resources for development and calibration, multiple models are not generally applied to the same problem. This study uses results from one such model intercomparison conducted by the Fruits Working Group, which was created under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) Program. Model-model intercomparisons presented in this study were conducted by the working group for two different scenarios (acute or continuous deposition), one radionuclide ((137)Cs), and three fruit-bearing crops (strawberries, apples, and blackcurrants). The differences between models were as great as five orders of magnitude for short-term predictions following acute radionuclide deposition. For long-term predictions and for the continuous deposition scenario, the differences between models were about two orders of magnitude. The difference between strawberry, apple, and blackcurrant contamination predicted by one model is far less than the difference in prediction of contamination for a single plant species given by different models. This study illustrates the importance of problem formulation and implementation of an analytic-deliberative process in risk characterization.

A comparative radiological assessment of five European biosphere systems in the context of potential contamination of well water from the hypothetical disposal of radioactive waste.

In the framework of the BioMoSA project for the development of biosphere assessment models for radioactive waste disposal the Reference Biosphere Methodology developed in the IAEA programme BIOMASS was applied to five locations, situated in different European countries. Specific biosphere models were applied to assess the hypothetical contamination of a range of agricultural and environmental pathways and the dose to individuals, following contamination of well water. The results of these site-specific models developed by the different BioMoSA partners, and the individual normalised dose to the exposure groups were compared against each other. Ingestion of drinking water, fruit and vegetables were found to be among the most important pathways for almost all radionuclides. Stochastic calculations revealed that consumption habits, transfer factors, irrigation rates and distribution coefficients (Kd(s)) were the most important parameters that influence the end results. Variations in the confidence intervals were found to be higher for sorbing elements (e.g. (36)Cl, (237)Np, (99)Tc, (238)U, (129)I) than for mobile elements (e.g. (226)Ra, (79)Se, (135)Cs, (231)Pa, (239)Pu). The influence of daughter products, for which the distribution into the biosphere was calculated individually, was also shown to be important. This paper gives a brief overview of the deterministic and stochastic modelling results and the parameter sensitivity. A screening methodology was introduced to identify the most important pathways, simplify a generic biosphere tool and refine the existing models.

Development and comparison of five site-specific biosphere models for safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal.

This paper describes the development and application of site-specific biosphere models that might be used for assessment of potential exposures in the framework of performance assessment studies of nuclear waste disposals. Model development follows the Reference Biosphere Methodology that has been set up in the framework of the BIOMASS study. In this paper, the application is to real sites at five European locations for which environmental and agricultural conditions have been described and characterised. For each of the sites a biosphere model has been developed specifically assuming a release of radionuclides to waters that are used by humans, for example as drinking water for humans and cattle and as irrigation water. Among the ingestion pathways, the intakes of drinking water, cereals, leafy vegetables, potatoes, milk, beef and freshwater fish are included in all models. Annual individual doses were calculated, and uncertainties in the results were estimated by means of stochastic calculations. To enable a comparison, all results were normalised to an activity concentration in groundwater of 1 Bq m(-3) for each of the radionuclides considered ((36)Cl, (79)Se, (99)Tc, (129)I, (135)Cs, (226)Ra, (231)Pa, (230)Th, (237)Np, (239)Pu, and (238)U), i.e. those that are usually most relevant in performance assessment studies of nuclear waste disposals. Although the results do not give answers in absolute terms on potential future exposures, they indicate the spectrum of exposures that might occur in different environments and specify the interaction of environmental conditions, human habits and potential exposure.

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit.

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model.

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.

A validation study for the transport of 134Cs to strawberry.

The paper presents results on model validation by field experiment for transport of 134Cs to strawberry. The transfer of 134Cs to herbaceous plants was investigated following a wet deposition after an acute release during 2000. Leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-fruit and direct fruit pathways were examined. The available meteorological and local soil information together with the experimental data were taken into account by the model RUVFRU. The processes are described by first order differential equations. In the case of foliar contamination scenarios measured and calculated results for fruit are in good agreement. However, the results of soil contamination scenarios provide large differences of up to three orders of magnitude between model predictions and experimental values for either fruit or other parts of the plant. The bias could be explained by the underestimation of the interception of the plant at the beginning of the season, in the soil contamination scenario. The model output permits prompt assessment of emergency situations and provides aid making decisions concerning mitigation of the consequences of the accident.

Determination and use of the monetary values of the averted person-sievert for use in radiation protection decisions in Hungary.

The monetary value of the averted dose is a key element in the implementation of the optimization principle both in radiation praxis and intervention. The main concept of this principle is to select options so as to maintain exposures at a reasonable level. The feature of this concept is to look for the minimal total cost, i.e., the sum of the costs of protection and health detriment. In its publications, ICRP emphasized the need for developing models which also take into account the "subjective" aspects of health detriment in the optimization process, such as the perception of risk by individuals and the need to put more emphasis on equity in the distribution of individual doses. This paper proposes a modified alpha-value model based on CEPN's model (Centre d'Etude sur L'Evaluation de la Protection dans le Domaine Nucleaire) to put more emphasis on recently published considerations about the smaller effects of the portion of collective dose derived from small doses. The parameters of the monetary value of unit collective dose averted, which is a key element of this type of model, can be estimated by means of approaches like human capital (HC) and willingness to pay (WTP) from the point of view of economic theories. The present study summarizes the results achieved by WTP among the radiation specialists mainly from the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, Hungary. The aim of the effort was to determine the value of a statistical life and the monetary value of a unit person-sievert associated with averted occupational exposure due to ionizing radiation. To apply the WTP method, a questionnaire has been prepared on the basis of the one introduced by CEPN in the late 1990's. The investigations show that the value of US$6,200 person-Sv(-1) seems to be acceptable for the alphabase-value for the occupational situation in Hungary in 1999. WTP assessments should be applied with caution since the economic level of the country, the workplace surveyed, and the computational methods affect the results. In addition, achieving a high level safety culture must rely on international cooperation both from the theoretical and practical viewpoints, and international markets affect the associated costs. Therefore the monetary requirements cannot always be assessed solely on a national basis.