Long-term evolution of human seasonal influenza virus A(H3N2) is associated with an increase in polymerase complex activity.

Since the influenza pandemic in 1968, influenza A(H3N2) viruses have become endemic. In this state, H3N2 viruses continuously evolve to overcome immune pressure as a result of prior infection or vaccination, as is evident from the accumulation of mutations in the surface glycoproteins hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). However, phylogenetic studies have also demonstrated ongoing evolution in the influenza A(H3N2) virus RNA polymerase complex genes. The RNA polymerase complex of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) viruses produces mRNA for viral protein synthesis and replicates the negative sense viral RNA genome (vRNA) through a positive sense complementary RNA intermediate (cRNA). Presently, the consequences and selection pressures driving the evolution of the polymerase complex remain largely unknown. Here, we characterize the RNA polymerase complex of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) viruses representative of nearly 50 years of influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution. The H3N2 polymerase complex is a reassortment of human and avian influenza virus genes. We show that since 1968, influenza A(H3N2) viruses have increased the transcriptional activity of the polymerase complex while retaining a close balance between mRNA, vRNA, and cRNA levels. Interestingly, the increased polymerase complex activity did not result in increased replicative ability on differentiated human airway epithelial (HAE) cells. We hypothesize that the evolutionary increase in polymerase complex activity of influenza A(H3N2) viruses may compensate for the reduced HA receptor binding and avidity that is the result of the antigenic evolution of influenza A(H3N2) viruses.

Long-term wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 viral loads and variants at the major international passenger hub Amsterdam Schiphol Airport: A valuable addition to COVID-19 surveillance.

Wastewater-based epidemiological surveillance at municipal wastewater treatment plants has proven to play an important role in COVID-19 surveillance. Considering international passenger hubs contribute extensively to global transmission of viruses, wastewater surveillance at this type of location may be of added value as well. The aim of this study is to explore the potential of long-term wastewater surveillance at a large passenger hub as an additional tool for public health surveillance during different stages of a pandemic. Here, we present an analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in airport wastewater by reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Feb 2020, and an analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants by whole-genome next-generation sequencing from Sep 2020, both until Sep 2022, in the Netherlands. Results are contextualized using (inter)national measures and data sources such as passenger numbers, clinical surveillance data and national wastewater surveillance data. Our findings show that wastewater surveillance was possible throughout the study period, irrespective of measures, as viral loads were detected and quantified in 98.6 % (273/277) of samples. Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, identified in 91.0 % (161/177) of sequenced samples, coincided with increases in viral loads. Furthermore, trends in viral load and variant detection in airport wastewater closely followed, and in some cases preceded, trends in national daily average viral load in wastewater and variants detected in clinical surveillance. Wastewater-based epidemiology at a large international airport is a valuable addition to classical COVID-19 surveillance and the developed expertise can be applied in pandemic preparedness plans for other (emerging) pathogens in the future.

Triple tandem trimer immunogens for HIV-1 and influenza nucleic acid-based vaccines.

Recombinant native-like HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) trimers are used in candidate vaccines aimed at inducing broadly neutralizing antibodies. While state-of-the-art SOSIP or single-chain Env designs can be expressed as native-like trimers, undesired monomers, dimers and malformed trimers that elicit non-neutralizing antibodies are also formed, implying that these designs could benefit from further modifications for gene-based vaccination approaches. Here, we describe the triple tandem trimer (TTT) design, in which three Env protomers are genetically linked in a single open reading frame and express as native-like trimers. Viral vectored Env TTT induced similar neutralization titers but with a higher proportion of trimer-specific responses. The TTT design was also applied to generate influenza hemagglutinin (HA) trimers without the need for trimerization domains. Additionally, we used TTT to generate well-folded chimeric Env and HA trimers that harbor protomers from three different strains. In summary, the TTT design is a useful platform for the design of HIV-1 Env and influenza HA immunogens for a multitude of vaccination strategies.

Effectiveness of Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccine against infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB and JN.1 variants, prospective cohort study, the Netherlands, October 2023 to January 2024.

We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccination against self-reported infection between 9 October 2023 and 9 January 2024 in 23,895 XBB.1.5 vaccine-eligible adults who had previously received at least one booster. VE was 41% (95% CI: 23-55) in 18-59-year-olds and 50% (95% CI: 44-56) in 60-85-year-olds. Sequencing data suggest lower protection against the BA.2.86 (including JN.1) variant from recent prior infection (OR = 2.8; 95% CI:1.2-6.5) and, not statistically significant, from XBB.1.5 vaccination (OR = 1.5; 95% CI:0.8-2.6).

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 BA.1/BA.2 lineages among adults and adolescents in a multicentre primary care study, Europe, December 2021 to June 2022.

BackgroundScarce European data in early 2021 suggested lower vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages than previous variants.AimWe aimed to estimate primary series (PS) and first booster VE against symptomatic BA.1/BA.2 infection and investigate potential biases.MethodsThis European test-negative multicentre study tested primary care patients with acute respiratory symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 in the BA.1/BA.2-dominant period. We estimated PS and booster VE among adults and adolescents (PS only) for all products combined and for Comirnaty alone, by time since vaccination, age and chronic condition. We investigated potential bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination and explored effect modification and confounding by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsAmong adults, PS VE was 37% (95% CI: 24-47%) overall and 60% (95% CI: 44-72%), 43% (95% CI: 26-55%) and 29% (95% CI: 13-43%) < 90, 90-179 and ≥ 180 days post vaccination, respectively. Booster VE was 42% (95% CI: 32-51%) overall and 56% (95% CI: 47-64%), 22% (95% CI: 2-38%) and 3% (95% CI: -78% to 48%), respectively. Primary series VE was similar among adolescents. Restricting analyses to Comirnaty had little impact. Vaccine effectiveness was higher among older adults. There was no signal of bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination. Confounding by previous infection was low, but sample size precluded definite assessment of effect modification.ConclusionPrimary series and booster VE against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 ranged from 37% to 42%, with similar waning post vaccination. Comprehensive data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection would help disentangle vaccine- and infection-induced immunity.

Asymmetrical Biantennary Glycans Prepared by a Stop-and-Go Strategy Reveal Receptor Binding Evolution of Human Influenza A Viruses.

Glycan binding properties of respiratory viruses have been difficult to probe due to a lack of biologically relevant glycans for binding studies. Here, a stop-and-go chemoenzymatic methodology is presented that gave access to a panel of 32 asymmetrical biantennary N-glycans having various numbers of N-acetyl lactosamine (LacNAc) repeating units capped by α2,3- or α2,6-sialosides resembling structures found in airway tissues. It exploits that the branching enzymes MGAT1 and MGAT2 can utilize unnatural UDP-2-deoxy-2-trifluoro-N-acetamido-glucose (UDP-GlcNTFA) as donor. The TFA moiety of the resulting glycans can be hydrolyzed to give GlcNH2 at one of the antennae, which temporarily blocks extension by glycosyl transferases. The N-glycans were printed as a microarray that was probed for receptor binding specificities of the evolutionary distinct human A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. It was found that not only the sialoside type but also the length of the LacNAc chain and presentation at the α1,3-antenna of N-glycans are critical for binding. Early A(H3N2) viruses bound to 2,6-sialosides at a single LacNAc moiety at the α1,3-antenna whereas later viruses required the sialoside to be presented at a tri-LacNAc moiety. Surprisingly, most of the A(H3N2) viruses that appeared after 2021 regained binding capacity to sialosides presented at a di-LacNAc moiety. As a result, these viruses again agglutinate erythrocytes, commonly employed for antigenic characterization of influenza viruses. Human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses have similar receptor binding properties as recent A(H3N2) viruses. The data indicate that an asymmetric N-glycan having 2,6-sialoside at a di-LacNAc moiety is a commonly employed receptor by human influenza A viruses.

Multiplex Serology for Sensitive and Specific Flavivirus IgG Detection: Addition of Envelope Protein Domain III to NS1 Increases Sensitivity for Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus IgG Detection.

Tick-borne encephalitis is a vaccine-preventable disease of concern for public health in large parts of Europe, with EU notification rates increasing since 2018. It is caused by the orthoflavivirus tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and a diagnosis of infection is mainly based on serology due to its short viremic phase, often before symptom onset. The interpretation of TBEV serology is hampered by a history of orthoflavivirus vaccination and by previous infections with related orthoflaviviruses. Here, we sought to improve TBEV sero-diagnostics using an antigen combination of in-house expressed NS1 and EDIII in a multiplex, low-specimen-volume set-up for the detection of immune responses to TBEV and other clinically important orthoflaviviruses (i.e., West Nile virus, dengue virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Usutu virus and Zika virus). We show that the combined use of NS1 and EDIII results in both a specific and sensitive test for the detection of TBEV IgG for patient diagnostics, vaccination responses and in seroprevalence studies. This novel approach potentially allows for a low volume-based, simultaneous analysis of IgG responses to a range of orthoflaviviruses with overlapping geographic circulations and clinical manifestations.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Increased incidence of Mycoplasma pneumoniae infections and hospital admissions in the Netherlands, November to December 2023.

Mycoplasma pneumoniae is an important cause of pneumonia and extra-pulmonary manifestations. We observed a rise in admissions due to M. pneumoniae infections starting October 2023 in a regional hospital in the Netherlands and an increased incidence in national surveillance data. The incidence in the Netherlands has not been that high since 2011. The patients had a lower median age compared with 2019 and 2020 (28 vs 40 years). M. pneumoniae should be considered in patients with respiratory symptoms, especially children.

High quality of SARS-CoV-2 molecular diagnostics in a diverse laboratory landscape through supported benchmark testing and External Quality Assessment.

A two-step strategy combining assisted benchmark testing (entry controls) and External Quality Assessments (EQAs) with blinded simulated clinical specimens to enhance and maintain the quality of nucleic acid amplification testing was developed. This strategy was successfully applied to 71 diagnostic laboratories in The Netherlands when upscaling the national diagnostic capacity during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The availability of benchmark testing in combination with advice for improvement substantially enhanced the quality of the laboratory testing procedures for SARS-CoV-2 detection. The three subsequent EQA rounds demonstrated high quality testing with regard to specificity (99.6% correctly identified) and sensitivity (93.3% correctly identified). Even with the implementation of novel assays, changing workflows using diverse equipment and a high degree of assay heterogeneity, the overall high quality was maintained using this two-step strategy. We show that in contrast to the limited value of Cq value for absolute proxies of viral load, these Cq values can, in combination with metadata on strategies and techniques, provide valuable information for laboratories to improve their procedures. In conclusion, our two-step strategy (preparation phase followed by a series of EQAs) is a rapid and flexible system capable of scaling, improving, and maintaining high quality diagnostics even in a rapidly evolving (e.g. pandemic) situation.

Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study.

Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of susceptibility and infectivity by person-type. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit.

Asymmetrical Bi-antennary Glycans Prepared by a Stop-and-Go Strategy Reveal Receptor Binding Evolution of Human Influenza A Viruses.

Glycan binding properties of respiratory viruses have been difficult to probe due to a lack of biological relevant glycans for binding studies. Here, a stop-and-go chemoenzymatic methodology is presented that gave access to a panel of 32 asymmetrical bi-antennary N-glycans having various numbers of N-acetyl lactosamine (LacNAc) repeating units capped by α2,3- or α2,6-sialosides resembling structures found in airway tissues. It exploits that the branching enzymes MGAT1 and MGAT2 can utilize unnatural UDP-2-deoxy-2-trifluoro-N-acetamido-glucose (UDP-GlcNTFA) as donor. The TFA moiety of the resulting glycans can be hydrolyzed to give GlcNH2 at one of the antennae that temporarily blocks extension by glycosyl transferases. The N-glycans were printed as a microarray that was probed for receptor binding specificities of evolutionary distinct human A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. It was found that not only the sialoside type but also the length of the LacNAc chain and presentation at the α1,3-antenna of N-glycans is critical for binding. Early A(H3N2) viruses bound to 2,6-sialosides at a single LacNAc moiety at the α1,3-antenna whereas later viruses required the sialoside to be presented at a tri-LacNAc moiety. Surprisingly, most of the A(H3N2) viruses that appeared after 2021 regained binding capacity to sialosides presented at a di-LacNAc moiety. As a result, these viruses agglutinate erythrocytes again, commonly employed for antigenic characterization of influenza viruses. Human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses have similar receptor binding properties as recent A(H3N2) viruses. The data indicates that an asymmetric N-glycan having 2,6-sialoside at a di-LacNAc moiety is a commonly employed receptor by human influenza A viruses.

Broad SARS-CoV-2 neutralization by monoclonal and bispecific antibodies derived from a Gamma-infected individual.

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has remained a medical threat due to the evolution of multiple variants that acquire resistance to vaccines and prior infection. Therefore, it is imperative to discover monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that neutralize a broad range of SARS-CoV-2 variants. A stabilized spike glycoprotein was used to enrich antigen-specific B cells from an individual with a primary Gamma variant infection. Five mAbs selected from those B cells showed considerable neutralizing potency against multiple variants, with COVA309-35 being the most potent against the autologous virus, as well as Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, and COVA309-22 having binding and neutralization activity against Omicron BA.4/5, BQ.1.1, and XBB.1. When combining the COVA309 mAbs as cocktails or bispecific antibodies, the breadth and potency were improved. In addition, the mechanism of cross-neutralization of the COVA309 mAbs was elucidated by structural analysis. Altogether these data indicate that a Gamma-infected individual can develop broadly neutralizing antibodies.

Assessment of hybrid population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following breakthrough infections of distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants by the detection of antibodies to nucleoprotein.

Immunity induced by vaccination and infection, referred to as hybrid immunity, provides better protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to immunity induced by vaccinations alone. To assess the development of hybrid immunity we investigated the induction of Nucleoprotein-specific antibodies in PCR-confirmed infections by Delta or Omicron in vaccinated individuals (n = 520). Eighty-two percent of the participants with a breakthrough infection reached N-seropositivity. N-seropositivity was accompanied by Spike S1 antibody boosting, and independent of vaccination status or virus variant. Following the infection relatively more antibodies to the infecting virus variant were detected. In conclusion, these data show that hybrid immunity through breakthrough infections is hallmarked by Nucleoprotein antibodies and broadening of the Spike antibody repertoire. Exposure to future SARS-CoV-2 variants may therefore continue to maintain and broaden vaccine-induced population immunity.

Vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody responses to seasonal influenza virus H1N1 strains are not enhanced during subsequent pandemic H1N1 infection.

The first exposure to influenza is presumed to shape the B-cell antibody repertoire, leading to preferential enhancement of the initially formed responses during subsequent exposure to viral variants. Here, we investigated whether this principle remains applicable when there are large genetic and antigenic differences between primary and secondary influenza virus antigens. Because humans usually have a complex history of influenza virus exposure, we conducted this investigation in influenza-naive cynomolgus macaques. Two groups of six macaques were immunized four times with influenza virus-like particles (VLPs) displaying either one (monovalent) or five (pentavalent) different hemagglutinin (HA) antigens derived from seasonal H1N1 (H1N1) strains. Four weeks after the final immunization, animals were challenged with pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm09). Although immunization resulted in robust virus-neutralizing responses to all VLP-based vaccine strains, there were no cross-neutralization responses to H1N1pdm09, and all animals became infected. No reductions in viral load in the nose or throat were detected in either vaccine group. After infection, strong virus-neutralizing responses to H1N1pdm09 were induced. However, there were no increases in virus-neutralizing titers against four of the five H1N1 vaccine strains; and only a mild increase was observed in virus-neutralizing titer against the influenza A/Texas/36/91 vaccine strain. After H1N1pdm09 infection, both vaccine groups showed higher virus-neutralizing titers against two H1N1 strains of intermediate antigenic distance between the H1N1 vaccine strains and H1N1pdm09, compared with the naive control group. Furthermore, both vaccine groups had higher HA-stem antibodies early after infection than the control group. In conclusion, immunization with VLPs displaying HA from antigenically distinct H1N1 variants increased the breadth of the immune response during subsequent H1N1pdm09 challenge, although this phenomenon was limited to intermediate antigenic variants.

Evolution of transient RNA structure-RNA polymerase interactions in respiratory RNA virus genomes.

RNA viruses are important human pathogens that cause seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. Examples are influenza A viruses (IAV) and coronaviruses (CoV). When emerging IAV and CoV spill over to humans, they adapt to evade immune responses and optimize their replication and spread in human cells. In IAV, adaptation occurs in all viral proteins, including the viral ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex. RNPs consist of a copy of the viral RNA polymerase, a double-helical coil of nucleoprotein, and one of the eight segments of the IAV RNA genome. The RNA segments and their transcripts are partially structured to coordinate the packaging of the viral genome and modulate viral mRNA translation. In addition, RNA structures can affect the efficiency of viral RNA synthesis and the activation of host innate immune response. Here, we investigated if RNA structures that modulate IAV replication processivity, so-called template loops (t-loops), vary during the adaptation of pandemic and emerging IAV to humans. Using cell culture-based replication assays and in silico sequence analyses, we find that the sensitivity of the IAV H3N2 RNA polymerase to t-loops increased between isolates from 1968 and 2017, whereas the total free energy of t-loops in the IAV H3N2 genome was reduced. This reduction is particularly prominent in the PB1 gene. In H1N1 IAV, we find two separate reductions in t-loop free energy, one following the 1918 pandemic and one following the 2009 pandemic. No destabilization of t-loops is observed in the influenza B virus genome, whereas analysis of SARS-CoV-2 isolates reveals destabilization of viral RNA structures. Overall, we propose that a loss of free energy in the RNA genome of emerging respiratory RNA viruses may contribute to the adaption of these viruses to the human population.

Booster Immunization Improves Memory B Cell Responses in Older Adults Unresponsive to Primary SARS-CoV-2 Immunization.

The generation of a specific long-term immune response to SARS-CoV-2 is considered important for protection against COVID-19 infection and disease. Memory B cells, responsible for the generation of antibody-producing plasmablasts upon a new antigen encounter, play an important role in this process. Therefore, the induction of memory B cell responses after primary and booster SARS-CoV-2 immunizations was investigated in the general population with an emphasis on older adults. Participants, 20-99 years of age, due to receive the mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine were included in the current study. Specific memory B cells were determined by ex vivo ELISpot assays. In a subset of participants, antibody levels, avidity, and virus neutralization capacity were compared to memory B cell responses. Memory B cells specific for both Spike S1 and receptor-binding domain (RBD) were detected in the majority of participants following the primary immunization series. However, a proportion of predominantly older adults showed low frequencies of specific memory B cells. Booster vaccination resulted in a large increase in the frequencies of S1- and RBD-specific memory B cells also for those in which low memory B cell frequencies were detected after the primary series. These data show that booster immunization is important for the generation of a memory B cell response, as a subset of older adults shows a suboptimal response to the primary SARS-CoV-2 immunization series. It is anticipated that these memory B cells will play a significant role in the immune response following viral re-exposure.

A Dutch highly pathogenic H5N6 avian influenza virus showed remarkable tropism for extra-respiratory organs and caused severe disease but was not transmissible via air in the ferret model.

Continued circulation of A/H5N1 influenza viruses of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 lineage in poultry has resulted in the diversification in multiple genetic and antigenic clades. Since 2009, clade 2.3.4.4 hemagglutinin (HA) containing viruses harboring the internal and neuraminidase (NA) genes of other avian influenza A viruses have been detected. As a result, various HA-NA combinations, such as A/H5N1, A/H5N2, A/H5N3, A/H5N5, A/H5N6, and A/H5N8 have been identified. As of January 2023, 83 humans have been infected with A/H5N6 viruses, thereby posing an apparent risk for public health. Here, as part of a risk assessment, the in vitro and in vivo characterization of A/H5N6 A/black-headed gull/Netherlands/29/2017 is described. This A/H5N6 virus was not transmitted between ferrets via the air but was of unexpectedly high pathogenicity compared to other described A/H5N6 viruses. The virus replicated and caused severe lesions not only in respiratory tissues but also in multiple extra-respiratory tissues, including brain, liver, pancreas, spleen, lymph nodes, and adrenal gland. Sequence analyses demonstrated that the well-known mammalian adaptation substitution D701N was positively selected in almost all ferrets. In the in vitro experiments, no other known viral phenotypic properties associated with mammalian adaptation or increased pathogenicity were identified. The lack of transmission via the air and the absence of mammalian adaptation markers suggest that the public health risk of this virus is low. The high pathogenicity of this virus in ferrets could not be explained by the known mammalian pathogenicity factors and should be further studied. IMPORTANCE Avian influenza A/H5 viruses can cross the species barrier and infect humans. These infections can have a fatal outcome, but fortunately these influenza A/H5 viruses do not spread between humans. However, the extensive circulation and reassortment of A/H5N6 viruses in poultry and wild birds warrant risk assessments of circulating strains. Here an in-depth characterization of the properties of an avian A/H5N6 influenza virus isolated from a black-headed gull in the Netherlands was performed in vitro and in vivo, in ferrets. The virus was not transmissible via the air but caused severe disease and spread to extra-respiratory organs. Apart from the detection in ferrets of a mutation that increased virus replication, no other mammalian adaptation phenotypes were identified. Our results suggest that the risk of this avian A/H5N6 virus for public health is low. The underlying reasons for the high pathogenicity of this virus are unexplained and should be further studied.

Evolution of transient RNA structure-RNA polymerase interactions in respiratory RNA virus genomes.

RNA viruses are important human pathogens that cause seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. Examples are influenza A viruses (IAV) and coronaviruses (CoV). When emerging IAV and CoV spill over to humans, they adapt to evade immune responses and optimize their replication and spread in human cells. In IAV, adaptation occurs in all viral proteins, including the viral ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex. RNPs consists of a copy of the viral RNA polymerase, a double-helical coil of nucleoprotein, and one of the eight segments of the IAV RNA genome. The RNA segments and their transcripts are partially structured to coordinate the packaging of the viral genome and modulate viral mRNA translation. In addition, RNA structures can affect the efficiency of viral RNA synthesis and the activation of host innate immune response. Here, we investigated if RNA structures that modulate IAV replication processivity, so called template loops (t-loops), vary during the adaptation of pandemic and emerging IAV to humans. Using cell culture-based replication assays and in silico sequence analyses, we find that the sensitivity of the IAV H3N2 RNA polymerase to t-loops increased between isolates from 1968 and 2017, whereas the total free energy of t-loops in the IAV H3N2 genome was reduced. This reduction is particularly prominent in the PB1 gene. In H1N1 IAV, we find two separate reductions in t-loop free energy, one following the 1918 pandemic and one following the 2009 pandemic. No destabilization of t-loops is observed in the IBV genome, whereas analysis of SARS-CoV-2 isolates reveals destabilization of viral RNA structures. Overall, we propose that a loss of free energy in the RNA genome of emerging respiratory RNA viruses may contribute to the adaption of these viruses to the human population.

Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study.

Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of individual susceptibility and infectivity. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is often the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we use data from a prospective household-based study to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates in the Netherlands from August 2020 to August 2021. Introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates are estimated with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. The best fitting transmission models include increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses show that vaccination of adults could have strongly reduced infection attack rates in households and that adding adolescent vaccination would have offered limited added benefit.