The impact of inpatient bed capacity on length of stay.

OBJECTIVE: Large reductions in inpatient length of stay and inpatient bed supply have occurred across health systems in recent years. However, the direction of causation between length of stay and bed supply is often overlooked. This study examines the impact of changes to inpatient bed supply, as a result of recession-induced healthcare expenditure changes, on emergency inpatient length of stay in Ireland between 2010 and 2015. STUDY DESIGN: We analyse all public hospital emergency inpatient discharges in Ireland from 2010 to 2015 using the administrative Hospital In-Patient Enquiry dataset. We use changes to inpatient bed supply across hospitals over time to examine the impact of bed supply on length of stay. Linear, negative binomial, and hospital-month-level fixed effects models are estimated. RESULTS: U-shaped trends are observed for both average length of stay and inpatient bed supply between 2010 and 2015. A consistently large positive relationship is found between bed supply and length of stay across all regression analyses. Between 2010 and 2012 while length of stay fell by 6.4%, our analyses estimate that approximately 42% (2.7% points) of this reduction was associated with declines in bed supply. CONCLUSION: Changes in emergency inpatient length of stay in Ireland between 2010 and 2015 were closely related to changes in bed supply during those years. The use of length of stay as an efficiency measure should be understood in the contextual basis of other health system changes. Lower length of stay may be indicative of the lack of resources or available bed supply as opposed to reduced demand for care or the shifting of care to other settings.

Geographic inequalities in non-acute healthcare supply: evidence from Ireland.

Background: Recent reforms in Ireland, as outlined in Sláintecare, the report of the cross-party parliamentary committee on health, are focused on shifting from a hospital-centric system to one where non-acute care plays a more central role. However, these reforms were embarked on in the absence of timely and accurate information about the capacity of non-acute care to take on a more central role in the system. To help address this gap, this paper outlines the most comprehensive analysis to date of geographic inequalities in non-acute care supply in Ireland. Methods: Data on the supply of 10 non-acute services including primary care, allied health, and care for older people, were collated. Per capita supply for each service is described for 28 counties in Ireland (Tipperary and Dublin divided into North and South), using 2014 supply and population data. To examine inequity in the geographic distribution of services, raw population in each county was adjusted for a range of needs indicators. Results: The findings show considerable geographic inequalities across counties in the supply of non-acute care. Some counties had low levels of supply of several types of non-acute care. The findings remain largely unchanged after adjusting for need, suggesting that the unequal patterns of supply are also inequitable. Conclusions: In the context of population changes and the influence of non-need factors, the persistence of historical budgeting in Ireland has led to considerable geographic inequities in non-acute supply, with important lessons for Ireland and for other countries. Such inequities come into sharp relief in the context of COVID-19, where non-acute supply plays a crucial role in ensuring that acute services are preserved for treating acutely ill patients.

Does formal home care reduce inpatient length of stay?

Formal home care is an appropriate substitute for acute hospital care for many older people. However, limited empirical evidence exists on the extent of substitution between the supply of home care and hospital use. This study examines whether patients from areas with a better supply of home care have lower inpatient length of stay (LOS). We link administrative data on over 300,000 public hospital inpatient admissions in Ireland between 2012 and 2015 to region-year panel data on public home care supply. In addition to modeling average LOS, we estimate unconditional quantile regressions to examine whether home care supply has a disproportionately strong impact on long LOS. We find that inpatients from areas with higher per capita home care supply have lower average LOS; a 10% increase in home care is associated with a 1.2%-2.1% reduction in LOS. This result is driven by the subset of patients with the longest LOS, likely delayed discharges. Stronger results were found for stroke and hip fracture patients, who might be expected to have higher than average propensity to use home care services, and for patients from a region that experienced an unusually large increase in home care supply.

The great convergence? Mortality in Ireland and Europe, 1956-2014.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, Irish age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were amongst the highest in the EU-15. This study examines changes in ASMRs in Ireland from 1956 to 2014. METHODS: Using data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database, we compare ASMRs in Ireland to other EU-15 countries from 1956 to 2014. ASMRS are used to plot the relative ranking of Ireland within the EU-15, and illustrate trends in which Ireland diverged with, and converged to, the EU-15 average. ASMRS are estimated across sex, age groups (15-64 and 65+ years) and cause of death. RESULTS: Between 1956 and 1999, ASMRs in Ireland were amongst the highest in the EU-15. ASMRs in Ireland saw slower improvements during this period as compared to other EU-15 countries. However, post-2000, a sharp reduction in Irish ASMRs resulted in an accelerated convergence to the EU-15 average. As a consequence of improvements in ASMRs between 2000 and 2014, there were an estimated 15 300 fewer deaths in 2014. The majority of these averted deaths were due to lower mortality rates for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system. CONCLUSIONS: Rather than converging to the EU-15 average during the latter half of the 20th century, there was a divergence in ASMRs between Ireland and the EU-15. However, in recent years, Ireland experienced accelerated improvements in mortality rates with large reductions in mortality observed for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system, especially amongst older people.

A profile of physiotherapy supply in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: The lack of information on public and private physiotherapy supply in Ireland makes current and future resource allocation decisions difficult. AIM: This paper estimates the supply of physiotherapists in Ireland and profiles physiotherapists across acute and non-acute sectors, and across public and private practice. It examines geographic variation in physiotherapist supply, examining the implications of controlling for healthcare need. METHODS: Physiotherapist headcounts are estimated using Health Service Personnel Census (HSPC) and Irish Society of Chartered Physiotherapists (ISCP) Register data. Headcounts are converted to whole-time equivalents (WTEs) using the HSPC and a survey of ISCP members to account for full- and part-time working practices. Non-acute supply per 10,000 population in each county is estimated to examine geographic inequalities and the raw population is adjusted in turn for a range of need indicators. RESULTS: An estimated 3172 physiotherapists were practising in Ireland in 2015; 6.8 physiotherapists per 10,000, providing an estimated 2620 WTEs. Females accounted for 74% of supply. Supply was greater in the non-acute sector; 1774 WTEs versus 846 WTEs in the acute sector. Physiotherapists in the acute sector were located mainly in publicly financed institutions (89%) with an even public/private split observed in the non-acute sector. Non-acute physiotherapist supply is unequally distributed across Ireland (Gini coefficient = 0.12; 95% CI 0.08-0.15), and inequalities remain after controlling for variations in healthcare needs across counties. CONCLUSION: The supply of physiotherapists in Ireland is 30% lower than the EU-28 average. Substantial inequality in the distribution of physiotherapists across counties is observed.

How many beds? Capacity implications of hospital care demand projections in the Irish hospital system, 2015-2030.

Existing Irish hospital bed capacity is low by international standards while Ireland also reports the highest inpatient bed occupancy rate across OECD countries. Moreover, strong projected population growth and ageing is expected to increase demand for hospital care substantially by 2030. Reform proposals have suggested that increased investment and access to nonacute care may mitigate some increased demand for hospital care over the next number of years, and it is in this context that the Irish government has committed to increase the supply of public hospital beds by 2600 by 2027. Incorporating assumptions on the rebalancing of care to nonhospital settings, this paper analyses the capacity implications of projected demand for hospital care in Ireland to 2030. This analysis employs the HIPPOCRATES macrosimulation projection model of health care demand and expenditure developed in the ESRI to project public and private hospital bed capacity requirements in Ireland to 2030. We examine 6 alternative projection scenarios that vary assumptions related to population growth and ageing, healthy ageing, unmet demand, hospital occupancy, hospital length of stay, and avoidable hospitalisations. We project an increased need for between 4000 and 6300 beds across public and private hospitals (an increase of between 26.1% and 41.1%), of which 3200 to 5600 will be required in public hospitals. These findings suggest that government plans to increase public hospital capacity over the 10 years to 2027 by 2600 may not be sufficient to meet demand requirements to 2030, even when models of care changes are accounted for.