Finding shortest and nearly shortest path nodes in large substantially incomplete networks by hyperbolic mapping.

Dynamic processes on networks, be it information transfer in the Internet, contagious spreading in a social network, or neural signaling, take place along shortest or nearly shortest paths. Computing shortest paths is a straightforward task when the network of interest is fully known, and there are a plethora of computational algorithms for this purpose. Unfortunately, our maps of most large networks are substantially incomplete due to either the highly dynamic nature of networks, or high cost of network measurements, or both, rendering traditional path finding methods inefficient. We find that shortest paths in large real networks, such as the network of protein-protein interactions and the Internet at the autonomous system level, are not random but are organized according to latent-geometric rules. If nodes of these networks are mapped to points in latent hyperbolic spaces, shortest paths in them align along geodesic curves connecting endpoint nodes. We find that this alignment is sufficiently strong to allow for the identification of shortest path nodes even in the case of substantially incomplete networks, where numbers of missing links exceed those of observable links. We demonstrate the utility of latent-geometric path finding in problems of cellular pathway reconstruction and communication security.

What is wrong with the Mission Dependency Index for US federal infrastructure decisions?

The Mission Dependency Index (MDI) is a risk metric used by US military services and federal agencies for guiding operations, management, and funding decisions for facilities. Despite its broad adoption for guiding the expenditure of billions in federal funds, several studies on MDI suggest it may have flaws that limit its efficacy. We present a detailed technical analysis of MDI to show how its flaws impact infrastructure decisions. We present the MDI used by the US Navy and develop a critique of current methods. We identify six problems with MDI that stem from its interpretation, use, and mathematical formulation, and we provide examples demonstrating how these flaws can bias decisions. We provide recommendations to overcome flaws for infrastructure risk decision making but ultimately recommend the US government develop a new metric less susceptible to bias.

Stability of a giant connected component in a complex network.

We analyze the stability of the network's giant connected component under impact of adverse events, which we model through the link percolation. Specifically, we quantify the extent to which the largest connected component of a network consists of the same nodes, regardless of the specific set of deactivated links. Our results are intuitive in the case of single-layered systems: the presence of large degree nodes in a single-layered network ensures both its robustness and stability. In contrast, we find that interdependent networks that are robust to adverse events have unstable connected components. Our results bring novel insights to the design of resilient network topologies and the reinforcement of existing networked systems.

The "weak" interdependence of infrastructure systems produces mixed percolation transitions in multilayer networks.

Previous studies of multilayer network robustness model cascading failures via a node-to-node percolation process that assumes "strong" interdependence across layers-once a node in any layer fails, its neighbors in other layers fail immediately and completely with all links removed. This assumption is not true of real interdependent infrastructures that have emergency procedures to buffer against cascades. In this work, we consider a node-to-link failure propagation mechanism and establish "weak" interdependence across layers via a tolerance parameter α which quantifies the likelihood that a node survives when one of its interdependent neighbors fails. Analytical and numerical results show that weak interdependence produces a striking phenomenon: layers at different positions within the multilayer system experience distinct percolation transitions. Especially, layers with high super degree values percolate in an abrupt manner, while those with low super degree values exhibit both continuous and discontinuous transitions. This novel phenomenon we call mixed percolation transitions has significant implications for network robustness. Previous results that do not consider cascade tolerance and layer super degree may be under- or over-estimating the vulnerability of real systems. Moreover, our model reveals how nodal protection activities influence failure dynamics in interdependent, multilayer systems.

Illustrating anticipatory life cycle assessment for emerging photovoltaic technologies.

Current research policy and strategy documents recommend applying life cycle assessment (LCA) early in research and development (R&D) to guide emerging technologies toward decreased environmental burden. However, existing LCA practices are ill-suited to support these recommendations. Barriers related to data availability, rapid technology change, and isolation of environmental from technical research inhibit application of LCA to developing technologies. Overcoming these challenges requires methodological advances that help identify environmental opportunities prior to large R&D investments. Such an anticipatory approach to LCA requires synthesis of social, environmental, and technical knowledge beyond the capabilities of current practices. This paper introduces a novel framework for anticipatory LCA that incorporates technology forecasting, risk research, social engagement, and comparative impact assessment, then applies this framework to photovoltaic (PV) technologies. These examples illustrate the potential for anticipatory LCA to prioritize research questions and help guide environmentally responsible innovation of emerging technologies.

Comparative alternative materials assessment to screen toxicity hazards in the life cycle of CIGS thin film photovoltaics.

Copper-indium-gallium-selenium-sulfide (CIGS) thin film photovoltaics are increasingly penetrating the market supply for consumer solar panels. Although CIGS is attractive for producing less greenhouse gas emissions than fossil-fuel based energy sources, CIGS manufacturing processes and solar cell devices use hazardous materials that should be carefully considered in evaluating and comparing net environmental benefits of energy products. Through this research, we present a case study on the toxicity hazards associated with alternative materials selection for CIGS manufacturing. We applied two numeric models, The Green Screen for Safer Chemicals and the Toxic Potential Indicator. To improve the sensitivity of the model outputs, we developed a novel, life cycle thinking based hazard assessment method that facilitates the projection of hazards throughout material life cycles. Our results show that the least hazardous CIGS solar cell device and manufacturing protocol consist of a titanium substrate, molybdenum metal back electrode, CuInS2 p-type absorber deposited by spray pyrolysis, ZnS buffer deposited by spray ion layer gas reduction, ZnO:Ga transparent conducting oxide (TCO) deposited by sputtering, and the encapsulant polydimethylsiloxane.

Practicing effective preventive medicine. Pharmacologic interventions in coronary heart disease.

Epidemiologic and clinical evidence clearly documents the relationship between elevated levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). In order to reduce CHD risk, the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) has identified LDL-C goals that can be achieved through appropriate use of lipid-lowering medications, diet, and exercise. Unfortunately, most patients with dyslipidemia are not achieving the NCEP-defined LDL-C goals in clinical practice. Accordingly, greater focus on preventive medicine is needed, whether the patient is seen in the hospital or in an outpatient setting. Preventing major cardiovascular events from occurring and intervening in patients with existing CHD are complementary strategies. Although the term intervention implies catheter-based approaches in cardiology, use of risk-lowering medications is also interventional in patients who have or are at risk for cardiovascular disease. The keys to improved delivery of preventive medicine are recognition that effective medications are available, provision of patient education, and reinforcement of the importance of these medications.