Likelihood inference for pollutant loading under type I censoring.

Exposure to toxic contaminants in the environment harms human and animal health and disturbs the integrity and function of the impacted ecosystem. The impact could be local, regional, and global. The concentration of a toxic substance below or above detection limits or thresholds in environmental samples is frequently recorded as non-detect. We discuss inferences based on exact and modified likelihood methods for the location-scale family with values below the detection limit, and as a special case for the normal distribution with a comparison between the methods. We demonstrate the procedure using Niagara River monitoring data.

Modelling temporal and spatial changes of PCBs in fish tissue from Lake Huron.

A model has been developed to assess temporal and spatial changes in the concentration of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contaminant in whole fish from Lake Huron during the years 1980 to 2004. The model uses log PCB concentration as the response variable and includes time trend, within-lake variability and dependence on age, weight and length as explanatory variables. A preliminary examination of the data revealed that some values are recorded as below detection limits (thus leading to the left censoring), and the PCB concentration appears to show declines in latter years. To this end, parametric log-location-scale regression models used in survival analysis were employed. It has been found that the Weibull model yields a better fit than the log-logistic or the log-normal models. The analysis provides strong evidence that, starting in 1996, the level of PCB concentration showed steady decline, which is most contributed by the Canadian and US governments' actions carried out earlier to reduce the load of toxic contaminants to the Great Lakes. Spatially, fish from the north of the lake is less contaminated than fish from the south. The pattern and magnitude of the estimated spatial and temporal trends can provide useful information regarding the safety of fish consumption, the setting of regularity limits, the identifiability of PCB sources and the effects of remedial actions in the future. In addition, the developed model is not restricted to the current application but could be used for the analysis of other contaminants.

Occurrence of virulence and antimicrobial resistance genes in Escherichia coli isolates from different aquatic ecosystems within the St. Clair River and Detroit River areas.

Although the number of Escherichia coli bacteria in surface waters can differ greatly between locations, relatively little is known about the distribution of E. coli pathotypes in surface waters used as sources for drinking or recreation. DNA microarray technology is a suitable tool for this type of study due to its ability to detect high numbers of virulence and antimicrobial resistance genes simultaneously. Pathotype, phylogenetic group, and antimicrobial resistance gene profiles were determined for 308 E. coli isolates from surface water samples collected from diverse aquatic ecosystems at six different sites in the St. Clair River and Detroit River areas. A higher frequency (48%) of E. coli isolates possessing virulence and antimicrobial resistance genes was observed in an urban site located downstream of wastewater effluent outfalls than in the other examined sites (average of 24%). Most E. coli pathotypes were extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC) pathotypes and belonged to phylogenetic groups B2 and D. The ExPEC pathotypes were found to occur across all aquatic ecosystems investigated, including riverine, estuarine, and offshore lake locations. The results of this environmental study using DNA microarrays highlight the widespread distribution of E. coli pathotypes in aquatic ecosystems and the potential public health threat of E. coli pathotypes originating from municipal wastewater sources.

A virulence and antimicrobial resistance DNA microarray detects a high frequency of virulence genes in Escherichia coli isolates from Great Lakes recreational waters.

Escherichia coli is generally described as a commensal species with occasional pathogenic strains. Due to technological limitations, there is currently little information concerning the prevalence of pathogenic E. coli strains in the environment. For the first time, using a DNA microarray capable of detecting all currently described virulence genes and commonly found antimicrobial resistance genes, a survey of environmental E. coli isolates from recreational waters was carried out. A high proportion (29%) of 308 isolates from a beach site in the Great Lakes carried a pathotype set of virulence-related genes, and 14% carried antimicrobial resistance genes, findings consistent with a potential risk for public health. The results also showed that another 8% of the isolates had unusual virulence gene combinations that would be missed by conventional screening. This new application of a DNA microarray to environmental waters will likely have an important impact on public health, epidemiology, and microbial ecology in the future.