Projecting the burden of dental caries and periodontal diseases among the adult population in the United Kingdom using a multi-state population model.

Objectives: With the aging United Kingdom population, oral diseases are expected to increase. Exploring credible projections is fundamental to understanding the likely impact of emerging population-level interventions on oral disease burden. This study aims at providing a credible, evidence-based projection of the adult population in the United Kingdom with dental caries and periodontal diseases. Methods: We developed a multi-state population model using system dynamics that disaggregates the adult population in the United Kingdom into different oral health states. The caries population was divided into three states: no caries, treated caries, and untreated caries. The periodontal disease population was disaggregated into no periodontal disease, pocketing between 4 and < 6 mm, 6 and < 9 mm, and 9 mm or more. Data from the 2009 dental health survey in the United Kingdom was used to estimate age and gender-specific prevalence rates as input to the multi-state population model. Results: Of the population 16 years and older, the number with carious teeth is projected to decrease from 15.742 million in the year 2020 to 15.504 million by the year 2050, representing a decrease of 1.5%. For individuals with carious teeth, the older adult population is estimated to constitute 62.06% by 2050 and is projected to increase 89.4% from 5.079 million in 2020 to 9.623 million by 2050. The adult population with periodontal pocketing is estimated to increase from 25.751 million in 2020 to 27.980 million by 2050, while those with periodontal loss of attachment are projected to increase from 18.667 million in 2020 to 20.898 million by 2050. The burden of carious teeth and periodontal diseases is anticipated to shift from the adult population (16-59 years) to the older adult population. The older adult population with carious teeth is estimated to rise from 32.26% in 2020 to 62.06% by 2050, while that for periodontal disease is expected to increase from 42.44% in 2020 to 54.57% by 2050. Conclusion: This model provides evidence-based plausible future demand for oral health conditions, allowing policymakers to plan for oral health capacity to address growing needs. Because of the significant delay involved in educating and training oral health personnel, such projections offer policymakers the opportunity to be proactive in planning for future capacity needs instead of being reactive.

Systems modelling as an approach for eliciting the mechanisms for hip fracture recovery among older adults in a participatory stakeholder engagement setting.

Introduction: Due to an aging population, the rising prevalence and incidence of hip fractures and the associated health and economic burden present a challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Studies have shown that a complex interplay of physiological, psychological, and social factors often affects the recovery trajectories of older adults with hip fractures, often complicating the recovery process. Methods: This research aims to actively engage stakeholders (including doctors, physiotherapists, hip fracture patients, and caregivers) using the systems modeling methodology of Group Model Building (GMB) to elicit the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery, incorporating a feedback perspective to inform system-wide interventions. Hip fracture stakeholder engagement was facilitated through the Group Model Building approach in a two-half-day workshop of 25 stakeholders. This approach combined different techniques to develop a comprehensive qualitative whole-system view model of the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery. Results: A conceptual, qualitative model of the dynamics of hip fracture recovery was developed that draws on stakeholders' personal experiences through a moderated interaction. Stakeholders identified four domains (i.e., expectation formation, rehabilitation, affordability/availability, and resilience building) that play a significant role in the hip fracture recovery journey.. Discussion: The insight that recovery of loss of function due to hip fracture is attributed to (a) the recognition of a gap between pre-fracture physical function and current physical function; and (b) the marshaling of psychological resilience to respond promptly to a physical functional loss via uptake of rehabilitation services is supported by findings and has several policy implications.

Determinants of dental caries in children in the Middle East and North Africa region: a systematic review based on literature published from 2000 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Dental caries risk factors have been expanded to not only emphasize biology, dietary and oral habits but also broader social determinants such as socioeconomic factors and the utilization of health services. The aim was to review sociobehavioural/cultural and socioeconomic determinants of dental caries in children residing in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. METHODS: A search was conducted in the PubMed/Medline database and Google Scholar to identify studies published from 2000 to 2019 covering children using key search terms. In the initial stages, titles, abstracts and, if needed, full articles were screened for eligibility. In the final stage, all included articles were reassessed and read, and relevant data were extracted. RESULTS: Out of 600 initial articles, a total of 77 were included in this review, of which 74 were cross-sectional, 2 were longitudinal and one was a case-control study. The studies included a total of 94,491 participants in 14 countries across the MENA region. A majority used the World Health Organization scoring system to assess dental caries. The caries prevalence ranged between 17.2% and 88.8%, early childhood caries between 3% and 57% and decayed missing filled teeth (dmft) varied between 0.6 and 8.5 across the various age groups. Increased age, low maternal education, low overall socioeconomic status, decreased frequency of tooth brushing, low parental involvement, poor oral habits, infant feeding practices and sugar consumption were among the most prevalent determinants for increased risk of caries in the reviewed studies. CONCLUSIONS: Dental caries was found to be high among children in many of the studies published from MENA. The key determinants of dental caries were found to include factors related to child characteristics, family background, oral hygiene and infant feeding and eating habits. The high dental caries prevalence emphasises the need to address the prevailing modifiable sociobehavioural and socioeconomic determinants by translating them into effective oral health prevention policies and programmes.

Weight status and food habits of preschool children in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates: NOPLAS project.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Eating habits established during childhood affect health in later life. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a high prevalence of obesity in adolescents and adults; however, data on the health of preschool children are scarce. This study assessed the weight status and dietary habits of Emirati and non-Emirati children attending nurseries in Abu Dhabi, UAE. METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: Weight and height were measured in children aged 18 months-4 years. Z scores for height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ), and BMI-for-age (BAZ) were calculated based on WHO protocols. Parents completed a questionnaire regarding demographics and food frequency. RESULTS: A total of 203 children participated. Abnormal anthropometric status (z scores of <-2 or >2) for WAZ was indicated in 12.8% of Emirati children versus 1.4% of non-Emirati children (p=0.008) and for BAZ in 19.9% of Emirati children versus 8.4% of non-Emirati children (p<0.05). Emirati children exhibited higher prevalences of malnutrition (4.3% vs 1.4%), wasting (11.5% vs 2.8%), and overweight (8.5% vs 4.2%) than non-Emirati children and consumed discretionary calorie foods and typical components of Emirati cuisine (rice, fish, and pulses) significantly more often than non-Emirati children. CONCLUSIONS: Similar to findings in other countries undergoing economic transition, an indication of a double burden of disease was revealed in chil-dren attending nurseries in Abu Dhabi. Malnutrition and overnutrition were represented, especially among Emira-ti children, and were seemingly related to lifestyle rather than genetics. Therefore, policies focusing on child health interventions are required.

Dental caries and their association with socioeconomic characteristics, oral hygiene practices and eating habits among preschool children in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates - the NOPLAS project.

BACKGROUND: Dental caries are a global public health problem and influence the overall health of children. The risk factors for caries include biological, socio-behavioral and environmental factors. This cross-sectional study assessed dental caries and their associations with socioeconomic factors, oral hygiene practices and eating habits among Emirati and non-Emirati children in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE). METHODS: The stratified sample comprised children aged 18 months to 4 years recruited from 7 nurseries. The World Health Organization (WHO) decayed, missing and filled teeth index (dmft) was used to analyze the dental status of the children. Parents completed a questionnaire regarding demographics, food consumption and oral habits. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee at Zayed University, UAE (ZU15_029_F). RESULTS: A total of 186 children with a mean age of 2.46 years, of which 46.2% were Emirati, participated. Overall, 41% of the children had dental caries. The mean dmft±SD was 1.70 ± 2.81 with a mean ± SD decayed component (dt) of 1.68 ± 2.80 and mean ± SD filled component (ft) of 0.02 ± 0.19. Emirati children showed higher mean dmft, Plaque Index and Significant Carries Index values than non-Emirati children (P < 0.000). Low maternal education, rural nursery location, infrequent tooth-brushing, frequent consumption of high-sugar food items and Emirati nationality were factors significantly associated with dental caries. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, 4 out of 10 nursery children were found to have dental caries. Sociodemographic factors, dietary and oral health habits were associated with dental caries. Effective oral health interventions tailored to improve eating habits and the dental screening of children in this age group are imperative to mitigate these concerns.

Putative periodontopathic bacteria and herpes viruses interactions in the subgingival plaque of patients with aggressive periodontitis and healthy controls.

The microbial profile of aggressive periodontitis patients is considered to be complex with variations among populations in different geographical areas. The aim of this study was to assess the presences of 4 putative periodontopathic bacteria (Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia, and Treponema denticola) and 2 periodontal herpes viruses (Epstein-Barr virus type 1 [EBV-1] and human cytomegalovirus [HMCV]) in subgingival plaque of Sudanese subjects with aggressive periodontitis and healthy controls. The study group consisted of 34 subjects, 17 aggressive periodontitis patients and 17 periodontally healthy controls (14-19 years of age). Pooled subgingival plaque samples were collected and analyzed for detection of bacteria and viruses using loop-mediated isothermal amplification. Prevalence of subgingival A. actinomycetemcomitans, HCMV, and P. gingivalis were significantly higher among aggressive periodontitis patients than periodontally healthy controls. Coinfection with A. actinomycetemcomitans, HCMV, and/or EBV-1 was restricted to the cases. Increased risk of aggressive periodontitis was the highest when A. actinomycetemcomitans was detected together with EBV-1 (OD 49.0, 95% CI [2.5, 948.7], p = .01) and HCMV (OD 39.1, 95% CI [2.0, 754.6], p = .02). In Sudanese patients, A. actinomycetemcomitans and HCMV were the most associated test pathogens with aggressive periodontitis.

Ethnic disparities in the prevalence of periodontitis among high school students in Sudan.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the epidemiology and risk factors of periodontitis in young populations in developing nations. This study assesses the prevalence of periodontal attachment loss and aggressive periodontitis and the association with ethnicity among high school students in Sudan. METHODS: The study sample consisted of 1,200 students, 13 to 19 years old, selected from 38 public and private high schools using a multistage, stratified sampling design. The subjects were interviewed and examined clinically. Periodontal parameters were assessed at six sites per tooth. Subjects with aggressive periodontitis were identified. RESULTS: A total of 3.4% of the subjects had aggressive periodontitis, and 16.3% and 8.2% of the subjects had at least one tooth with > or = 4 and > or = 5 mm attachment loss, respectively. A significantly higher percentage of subjects of African tribal ethnicity had attachment loss > or = 4 and > or = 5 mm compared to Afro-Arab tribes (19.8% versus 14.7%, P = 0.02; and 12% versus 6.4%, P = 0.004, respectively), and had a higher prevalence of aggressive periodontitis (6% versus 2.3%; P = 0.01) and higher risk of being diagnosed with this disease (odds ratio = 2.7; P <0.0001). African ethnicity was also associated with a significantly higher number of teeth with attachment loss than in Afro-Arabs (P <0.01). Comparison by gender showed a significantly higher percentage of males with aggressive periodontitis (4.9% versus 2%; P <0.01) and a higher risk for this disease (odds ratio = 2.5; P = 0.01) than in females. However, the prevalence of subjects with attachment loss > or = 4 and > or = 5 mm was comparable in the two gender groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that aggressive periodontitis is highly prevalent in this population. African ethnicity (versus Afro-Arab) and male gender were risk factors for aggressive periodontitis.