Selection of long COVID symptoms influences prevalence estimates in a prospective cohort

BackgroundStudies on long COVID differ in the selection of symptoms used to define the condition. We aimed to assess to what extent symptom selection impacts prevalence estimates of long COVID. MethodsIn a prospective cohort of patients who experienced mild to critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we used longitudinal data on the presence of 20 different symptoms to evaluate changes in the prevalence of long COVID over time when altering symptom selection. ResultsChanging symptom selection resulted in wide variation in long COVID prevalence, even within the same study population. Long COVID prevalence at 12 months since illness onset ranged from 39.6% (95%CI=33.4-46.2) when using a limited selection of symptoms to 80.6% (95%CI=74.8-85.4) when considering any reported symptom to be relevant. ConclusionsComparing the occurrence of long COVID is already complex due to heterogeneity in study design and population. Disparate symptom selection may further hamper comparison of long COVID estimates between populations. Harmonised data collection tools could be one means to achieve greater reproducibility and comparability of results.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on future seasonal influenza epidemic

BackgroundDuring the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza viruses was unprecedentedly low. This led to concerns that the lack of immune stimulation to influenza viruses combined with waning antibody titres could lead to increased susceptibility to influenza in subsequent seasons, resulting in larger and more severe epidemics. MethodsWe analyzed historical influenza virus epidemiological data from 2003-2019 to assess the historical frequency of near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation and its impact on the size and severity of subsequent epidemics. Additionally, we measured haemagglutination inhibition-based antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses using longitudinal serum samples from 165 healthy adults, collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimated how antibody titres against seasonal influenza waned during the first two years of the pandemic. FindingsLow country-level prevalence of influenza virus (sub)types over one or more years occurred frequently before the COVID-19 pandemic and had relatively small impacts on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Additionally, antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses waned negligibly during the first two years of the pandemic. InterpretationThe commonly held notion that lulls in influenza virus circulation, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to larger and/or more severe subsequent epidemics might not be fully warranted, and it is likely that post-lull seasons will be similar in size and severity to pre-lull seasons. FundingEuropean Research Council, Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, Public Health Service of Amsterdam. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSDuring the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of seasonal influenza was unusually low, leading to widespread concerns of exceptionally large and/or severe influenza epidemics in the coming years. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar using a combination of search terms (i.e., "seasonal influenza", "SARS-CoV-2", "COVID-19", "low incidence", "waning rates", "immune protection") and critically considered published articles and preprints that studied or reviewed the low incidence of seasonal influenza viruses since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on future seasonal influenza epidemics. We found a substantial body of work describing how influenza virus circulation was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of studies projecting the size of future epidemics, each positing that post-pandemic epidemics are likely to be larger than those observed pre-pandemic. However, it remains unclear to what extent the assumed relationship between accumulated susceptibility and subsequent epidemic size holds, and it remains unknown to what extent antibody levels have waned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both are potentially crucial for accurate prediction of post-pandemic epidemic sizes. Added value of this studyWe find that the relationship between epidemic size and severity and the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s) is decidedly more complex than assumed, with the magnitude of influenza circulation in preceding seasons having only limited effects on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Rather, epidemic size and severity are dominated by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s). Similarly, we find that antibody levels waned only modestly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Implications of all the available evidenceThe lack of changes observed in the patterns of measured antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses in adults and nearly two decades of epidemiological data suggest that post-pandemic epidemic sizes will likely be similar to those observed pre-pandemic, and challenge the commonly held notion that the widespread concern that the near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, or potential future lulls, are likely to result in larger influenza epidemics in subsequent years.

Mapping the antigenic diversification of SARS-CoV-2

Large-scale vaccination campaigns have prevented countless hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that escape from immunity challenges the effectiveness of current vaccines. Given this continuing evolution, an important question is when and how to update SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to antigenically match circulating variants, similar to seasonal influenza viruses where antigenic drift necessitates periodic vaccine updates. Here, we studied SARS-CoV-2 antigenic drift by assessing neutralizing activity against variants-of-concern (VOCs) of a unique set of sera from patients infected with a range of VOCs. Infections with D614G or Alpha strains induced the broadest immunity, while individuals infected with other VOCs had more strain-specific responses. Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were substantially resistant to neutralization by sera elicited by all other variants. Antigenic cartography revealed that Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 are antigenically most distinct from D614G, associated with immune escape and likely requiring vaccine updates to ensure vaccine effectiveness.

Four SARS-CoV-2 vaccines induce quantitatively different antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 variants

BackgroundEmerging and future SARS-CoV-2 variants may jeopardize the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns. Therefore, it is important to know how the different vaccines perform against diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants. MethodsIn a prospective cohort of 165 SARS-CoV-2 naive health care workers, vaccinated with either one of four vaccines (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, AZD1222 or Ad26.COV2.S), we performed a head-to-head comparison of the ability of sera to recognize and neutralize SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs; Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron). Repeated serum sampling was performed 5 times during a year (from January 2021 till January 2022), including before and after booster vaccination with BNT162b2. FindingsFour weeks after completing the initial vaccination series, SARS-CoV-2 wild-type neutralizing antibody titers were highest in recipients of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 (geometric mean titers (GMT) of 197 [95% CI 149-260] and 313 [95% CI 218-448], respectively), and substantially lower in those vaccinated with the adenovirus vector-based vaccines AZD1222 and Ad26.COV2.S (GMT of 26 [95% CI 18-37] and 14 [95% CI 8-25] IU/ml, respectively). These findings were robust for adjustment to age and sex. VOCs neutralization was reduced in all vaccine groups, with the largest (9- to 80-fold) reduction in neutralization observed against the Omicron variant. The booster BNT162b2 vaccination increased neutralizing antibody titers for all groups with substantial improvement against the VOCs including the Omicron variant. Study limitations include the lack of cellular immunity data. ConclusionsOverall, this study shows that the mRNA vaccines appear superior to adenovirus vector-based vaccines in inducing neutralizing antibodies against VOCs four weeks after initial vaccination and after booster vaccination.

Cross-reactive antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination

Current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are losing efficacy against emerging variants and may not protect against future novel coronavirus outbreaks, emphasizing the need for more broadly protective vaccines. To inform the development of a pan-coronavirus vaccine, we investigated the presence and specificity of cross-reactive antibodies against the spike (S) proteins of human coronaviruses (hCoV) after SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination. We found an 11 to 123-fold increase in antibodies binding to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV as well as a 2 to 4-fold difference in antibodies binding to seasonal hCoVs in COVID-19 convalescent sera compared to pre-pandemic healthy donors, with the S2 subdomain of the S protein being the main target for cross-reactivity. In addition, we detected cross-reactive antibodies to all hCoV S proteins after SARS-CoV-2 S protein immunization in macaques, with higher responses for hCoV more closely related to SARS-CoV-2. These findings support the feasibility of and provide guidance for development of a pan-coronavirus vaccine.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern evade humoral immune responses from infection and vaccination

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants pose a threat to human immunity induced by natural infection and vaccination. We assessed the recognition of three variants of concern (B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1) in cohorts of COVID-19 patients ranging in disease severity (n = 69) and recipients of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (n = 50). Spike binding and neutralization against all three VOC was substantially reduced in the majority of samples, with the largest 4-7-fold reduction in neutralization being observed against B.1.351. While hospitalized COVID-19 patients and vaccinees maintained sufficient neutralizing titers against all three VOC, 39% of non-hospitalized patients did not neutralize B.1.351. Moreover, monoclonal neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) show sharp reductions in their binding kinetics and neutralizing potential to B.1.351 and P.1, but not to B.1.1.7. These data have implications for the degree to which pre-existing immunity can protect against subsequent infection with VOC and informs policy makers of susceptibility to globally circulating SARS-CoV-2 VOC.

Evolution of COVID-19 symptoms during the first 9 months after illness onset

BackgroundFew longitudinal data on COVID-19 symptoms across the full spectrum of disease severity are available. We evaluated symptom onset, severity and recovery up to nine months after illness onset. MethodsThe RECoVERED Study is a prospective cohort study based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Participants aged>18 years were recruited following SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis via the local Public Health Service and from hospitals. Standardised symptom questionnaires were completed at recruitment, at one week and month after recruitment, and monthly thereafter. Clinical severity was defined according to WHO criteria. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to compare time from illness onset to symptom recovery, by clinical severity. We examined determinants of time to recovery using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. ResultsBetween 11 May 2020 and 31 January 2021, 301 COVID-19 patients (167[55%] male) were recruited, of whom 99/301(32.9%) had mild, 140/301(46.5%) moderate, 30/301(10.0%) severe and 32/301(10.6%) critical disease. The proportion of symptomatic participants who reported at least one persistent symptom at 12 weeks after illness onset was greater in those with severe/critical disease (81.7%[95%CI=68.7-89.7%]) compared to those with mild or moderate disease (33.0%[95%CI=23.0-43.3%] and 63.8%[95%CI=54.8-71.5%]). Even at nine months after illness onset, almost half of all participants (42.1%[95%CI=35.6-48.5]) overall continued to report [≥]1 symptom. Recovery was slower in participants with BMI[≥]30kg/m2 (HR 0.51[95%CI=0.30-0.87]) compared to those with BMI<25kg/m2, after adjusting for age, sex and number of comorbidities. ConclusionsCOVID-19 symptoms persisted for nine months after illness onset, even in those with mild disease. Obesity was the most important determinant of speed of recovery from symptoms.

Single-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in a prospective cohort of COVID-19 patients

BackgroundThe urgent need for, but limited availability of, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines worldwide has led to widespread consideration of dose sparing strategies, particularly single vaccine dosing of individuals with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. MethodsWe evaluated SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody responses following a single-dose of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) mRNA vaccine in 155 previously SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals participating in a population-based prospective cohort study of COVID-19 patients. Participants varied widely in age, comorbidities, COVID-19 severity and time since infection, ranging from 1 to 15 months. Serum antibody titers were determined at time of vaccination and one week after vaccination. Responses were compared to those in SARS-CoV-2-naive health care workers after two BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine doses. ResultsWithin one week of vaccination, IgG antibody levels to virus spike and RBD proteins increased 27 to 29-fold and neutralizing antibody titers increased 12-fold, exceeding titers of fully vaccinated SARS-CoV-2-naive controls (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.56 to 0.67 v. control 95% CrI: -0.16 to -0.02). Pre-vaccination neutralizing antibody titers had the largest positive mean effect size on titers following vaccination (95% CrI (0.16 to 0.45)). COVID-19 severity, the presence of comorbidities and the time interval between infection and vaccination had no discernible impact on vaccine response. ConclusionA single dose of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine up to 15 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection provides neutralizing titers exceeding two vaccine doses in previously uninfected individuals. These findings support wide implementation of a single-dose mRNA vaccine strategy after prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Hospitalisation rates differed by city district and ethnicity during the first wave of COVID-19 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands

BackgroundIt is important to gain insight into the burden of COVID-19 at city district level to develop targeted prevention strategies. We examined COVID-19 related hospitalisations by city district and migration background in the municipality of Amsterdam, the Netherlands. MethodsWe used surveillance data on all PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalisations in Amsterdam until 31 May 2020, matched to municipal registration data on migration background. We calculated directly standardised (age, sex) rates (DSR) of hospitalisations, as a proxy of COVID-19 burden, per 100,000 population by city district and migration background. We calculated standardised rate differences (RD) and rate ratios (RR) to compare hospitalisations between city districts of varying socio-economic and health status and between migration backgrounds. We evaluated the effects of city district and migration background on hospitalisation after adjusting for age and sex using Poisson regression. ResultsBetween 29 February and 31 May 2020, 2326 cases (median age 57 years [IQR=37-74]) were notified in Amsterdam, of which 596 (25.6%) hospitalisations and 287 (12.3%) deaths. 526/596 (88.2%) hospitalisations could be matched to the registration database. DSR were higher in individuals living in peripheral (South-East/New-West/North) city districts with lower economic and health status, compared to central districts (Centre/West/South/East) (RD=36.87,95%CI=25.79-47.96;RR=1.82,95%CI=1.65-1.99), and among individuals with a non-Western migration background compared to ethnic-Dutch individuals (RD=57.05,95%CI=43.34-70.75; RR=2.36,95%CI=2.17-2.54). City district and migration background were independently associated with hospitalisation. ConclusionCity districts with lower economic and health status and those with a non-Western migration background had the highest burden of COVID-19 during the first wave of COVID-19 in Amsterdam.