Prediction of mortality in hospitalized Egyptian patients with Coronavirus disease-2019: A multicenter retrospective study.

We aimed to assess the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics associated with mortality among hospitalized Egyptian patients with COVID-19. A multicenter, retrospective study was conducted on all polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted through the period from April to July 2020. A generalized linear model was reconstructed with covariates based on predictor's statistical significance and clinically relevance. The odds ratio (OR) was calculated by using stepwise logistic regression modeling. A total of 3712 hospitalized patients were included; of them, 900 deaths were recorded (24.2%). Compared to survived patients, non-survived patients were more likely to be older than 60 years (65.7%), males (53.6%) diabetic (37.6%), hypertensive (37.2%), and had chronic renal insufficiency (9%). Non-survived patients were less likely to receive azithromycin (p <0.001), anticoagulants (p <0.001), and steroids (p <0.001). We found that age ≥ 60 years old (OR = 2.82, 95% CI 2.05-3.86; p <0.0001), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.14-2.19; p = 0.006), hypertension (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.22-2.36; p = 0.002), chronic renal insufficiency (OR = 3.15, 95% CI 1.84-5.38; p <0.0001), tachycardia (OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.22-2.23; p <0.001), hypoxemia (OR = 5.69, 95% CI 4.05-7.98; p <0.0001), GCS <13 (OR 515.2, 95% CI 148.5-1786.9; p <0.0001), the use of therapeutic dose of anticoagulation (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.22-0.74, p = 0.003) and azithromycin (OR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.09-0.26; p <0.0001) were independent negative predictors of mortality. In conclusion, age >60 years, comorbidities, tachycardia, hypoxemia, and altered consciousness level are independent predictors of mortality among Egyptian hospitalized patients with COVID-19. On the other hand, the use of anticoagulants and azithromycin is associated with reduced mortality.

Predictors of severity and development of critical illness of Egyptian COVID-19 patients: A multicenter study.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted the present multicenter, retrospective study to assess the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics associated with critical illness among patients with COVID-19 from Egypt. METHODS: The present study was a multicenter, retrospective study that retrieved the data of all Egyptian cases with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to hospitals affiliated to the General Organization for Teaching Hospitals and Institutes (GOTHI) through the period from March to July 2020. The diagnosis of COVID-19 was based on a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) laboratory test. RESULTS: This retrospective study included 2724 COVID-19 patients, of whom 423 (15.52%) were critically ill. Approximately 45.86% of the critical group aged above 60 years, compared to 39.59% in the non-critical group (p = 0.016). Multivariate analysis showed that many factors were predictors of critically illness, including age >60 years (OR = 1.30, 95% CI [1.05, 1.61], p = 0.014), low oxygen saturation (OR = 0.93, 95% CI [0.91, 0.95], p<0.001), low Glasgow coma scale (OR = 0.75, 95% CI [0.67, 0.84], p<0.001), diabetes (OR = 1.62, 95% CI [1.26, 2.08], p<0.001), cancer (OR = 2.47, 95% CI [1.41, 4.35], p = 0.002), and serum ferritin (OR = 1.004, 95% CI [1.0003, 1.008], p = 0.031). CONCLUSION: In the present report, we demonstrated that many factors are associated with COVID-19 critical illness, including older age groups, fatigue, elevated temperature, increased pulse, lower oxygen saturation, the preexistence of diabetes, malignancies, cardiovascular disease, renal diseases, and pulmonary disease. Moreover, elevated serum levels of ALT, AST, and ferritin are associated with worse outcomes. Further studies are required to identify independent predictors of mortality for patients with COVID-19.