A heteroskedastic model of Park Grass spring hay yields in response to weather suggests continuing yield decline with climate change in future decades.

UK grasslands perform important environmental and economic functions, but their future productivity under climate change is uncertain. Spring hay yields from 1902 to 2016 at one site (the Park Grass Long Term Experiment) in southern England under four different fertilizer regimes were modelled in response to weather (seasonal temperature and rainfall). The modelling approach applied comprised: (1) a Bayesian model comparison to model parametrically the heteroskedasticity in a gamma likelihood function; (2) a Bayesian varying intercept multiple regression model with an autoregressive lag one process (to incorporate the effect of productivity in the previous year) of the response of hay yield to weather from 1902 to 2016. The model confirmed that warmer and drier years, specifically, autumn, winter and spring, in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries reduced yield. The model was applied to forecast future spring hay yields at Park Grass under different climate change scenarios (HadGEM2 and GISS RCP 4.5 and 8.5). This application indicated that yields are forecast to decline further between 2020 and 2080, by as much as 48-50%. These projections are specific to Park Grass, but implied a severe reduction in grassland productivity in southern England with climate change during the twenty-first century.

The impact of weather and increased atmospheric CO2 from 1892 to 2016 on simulated yields of UK wheat.

Climate change effects on UK winter wheat grain yield are complex: warmer temperature, negative; greater carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, positive; but other environmental variables and their timing also affect yield. In the absence of long-term experiments where temperature and CO2 concentration were manipulated separately, we applied the crop simulation model Sirius with long-term daily meteorological data (1892-2016) for Rothamsted, Hertfordshire, UK (2007-2016 mean growing season temperature 1.03°C warmer than 1892-1991), and CO2 concentration over this period, to investigate the separate effects of historic CO2 and weather on simulated grain yield in three wheat cultivars of the modern era. We show a slight decline in simulated yield over the period 1892-2016 from the effect of weather (daily temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours) at fixed CO2 (294.50 ppm, 1892 reference value), but a maximum 9.4% increase when accounting for increasing atmospheric CO2 (from 294.50 to 404.21 ppm), differing slightly among cultivars. Notwithstanding considerable inter-annual variation, the slight yield decline at 294.50 ppm CO2 over this 125-year period from the historic weather simulations for Rothamsted agrees with the expected decline from temperature increase alone, but the positive yield trend with actual CO2 values does not match the recent stagnation in UK wheat yield.

Progress and Challenges in Ex Situ Conservation of Forage Germplasm: Grasses, Herbaceous Legumes and Fodder Trees.

Forages provide an important livestock feed resource globally, particularly for millions of smallholder farmers, and have important roles in natural resource management and carbon sequestration, reducing soil erosion and mitigating the effects of climate change. Forage germplasm remains the basis for the selection and development of new, higher-yielding and better adaptedgenotypes to meet the increasing demand for livestock feed. Rapid rates of genetic erosion of forage diversity due to land-use change from natural pastures and rangelands to crop production to meet the food security requirements of a growing global population, together with pressures from a changing climate, highlight the necessity for ex situ seed conservation of forage genetic resources to provide germplasm for use by future generations. Whilst many forage species have orthodox seeds, the diverse range of genera and species which provide forage is a challenge in terms of the wide scope of information and understanding on conservation methods that genebank managers require-particularly for tropical forages, many of which are comparatively under-researched. We review the challenges to the conservation of tropical forage species by seed in ex situ genebanks and provide information on optimum methods for their management.

Investigating the effects of inter-annual weather variation (1968-2016) on the functional response of cereal grain yield to applied nitrogen, using data from the Rothamsted Long-Term Experiments.

The effect of weather on inter-annual variation in the crop yield response to nitrogen (N) fertilizer for winter wheat (Triticum aestivvum L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) was investigated using yield data from the Broadbalk Wheat and Hoosfield Spring Barley long-term experiments at Rothamsted Research. Grain yields of crops from 1968 to 2016 were modelled as a function of N rates using a linear-plus-exponential (LEXP) function. The extent to which inter-annual variation in the parameters of these responses was explained by variations in weather (monthly summarized temperatures and rainfall), and by changes in the cultivar grown, was assessed. The inter-annual variability in rainfall and underlying temperature influenced the crop N response and hence grain yields in both crops. Asymptotic yields in wheat were particularly sensitive to mean temperature in November, April and May, and to total rainfall in October, February and June. In spring barley asymptotic yields were sensitive to mean temperature in February and June, and to total rainfall in April to July inclusive and September. The method presented here explores the separation of agronomic and environmental (weather) influences on crop yield over time. Fitting N response curves across multiple treatments can support an informative analysis of the influence of weather variation on the yield variability. Whilst there are issues of the confounding and collinearity of explanatory variables within such models, and that other factors also influence yields over time, our study confirms the considerable impact of weather variables at certain times of the year. This emphasizes the importance of including weather temporal variation when evaluating the impacts of climate change on crops.

Temporal patterns of seed germination in early spring-flowering temperate woodland geophytes are modified by warming.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Understorey species in temperate deciduous woodlands such as wild daffodil (Narcissus pseudonarcissus) and common snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) have complex dormancy: seeds that are shed in late spring require warm summer temperatures for embryo elongation and dormancy alleviation, but then cooler temperatures for germination in autumn. As seasons warm and tree canopies alter, how will different seasonal temperature sequences affect these complex dormancy responses? METHODS: The effect of different sequences of warmer (+5 °C), current or cooler (-5 °C) seasons (summer to spring) on seed germination patterns over seven successive seasons were investigated, with all sequences combined factorially to determine the consequences of differential seasonal temperature change for the temporal pattern of germination (and so seedling recruitment). KEY RESULTS: Little (<1 %, G. nivalis) or no (N. pseudonarcissus) seed germination occurred during the first summer in any treatment. Germination of N. pseudonarcissus in the first autumn was considerable and greatest at the average (15 °C) temperature, irrespective of the preceding summer temperature; germination was also substantial in winter after a warmer autumn. Germination in G. nivalis was greatest in the warmest first autumn and influenced by preceding summer temperature (average > warmer > cooler); the majority of seeds that germinated over the whole study did so during the two autumns but also in year 2's cooler summer after a warm spring. CONCLUSIONS: Warmer autumns and winters delay first autumn germination of N. pseudonarcissus to winter but advance it in G. nivalis; overall, warming will deplete the soil seed bank of these species, making annual seed influx increasingly important for recruitment and persistence. This study provides a comprehensive account of the effects of temperature changes in different seasons on seed germination in these early spring-flowering geophytes and consequently informs how these and other temperate woodland species with complex seed dormancy may respond to future climate change.

Resilience of rice (Oryza spp.) pollen germination and tube growth to temperature stress.

Resilience of rice cropping systems to potential global climate change will partly depend on the temperature tolerance of pollen germination (PG) and tube growth (PTG). Pollen germination of high temperature-susceptible Oryza glaberrima Steud. (cv. CG14) and Oryza sativa L. ssp. indica (cv. IR64) and high temperature-tolerant O. sativa ssp. aus (cv. N22), was assessed on a 5.6-45.4 °C temperature gradient system. Mean maximum PG was 85% at 27 °C with 1488 µm PTG at 25 °C. The hypothesis that in each pollen grain, the minimum temperature requirements (Tn ) and maximum temperature limits (Tx ) for germination operate independently was accepted by comparing multiplicative and subtractive probability models. The maximum temperature limit for PG in 50% of grains (Tx(50) ) was the lowest (29.8 °C) in IR64 compared with CG14 (34.3 °C) and N22 (35.6 °C). Standard deviation (sx ) of Tx was also low in IR64 (2.3 °C) suggesting that the mechanism of IR64's susceptibility to high temperatures may relate to PG. Optimum germination temperatures and thermal times for 1 mm PTG were not linked to tolerating high temperatures at anthesis. However, the parameters Tx(50) and sx in the germination model define new pragmatic criteria for successful and resilient PG, preferable to the more traditional cardinal (maximum and minimum) temperatures.

High night temperature induces contrasting responses for spikelet fertility, spikelet tissue temperature, flowering characteristics and grain quality in rice.

Climate change is increasing night temperature (NT) more than day temperature (DT) in rice-growing areas. Effects of combinations of NT (24-35°C) from microsporogenesis to anthesis at one or more DT (30 or 35°C) at anthesis on rice spikelet fertility, temperature within spikelets, flowering pattern, grain weight per panicle, amylose content and gel consistency were investigated in contrasting rice cultivars under controlled environments. Cultivars differed in spikelet fertility response to high NT, with higher fertility associated with cooler spikelets (P<0.01). Flowering dynamics were altered by high NT and a novel high temperature tolerance complementary mechanism, shorter flower open duration in cv. N22, was identified. High NT reduced spikelet fertility, grain weight per panicle, amylose content and gel consistency, whereas high DT reduced only gel consistency. Night temperature >27°C was estimated to reduce grain weight. Generally, high NT was more damaging to grain weight and selected grain quality traits than high DT, with little or no interaction between them. The critical tolerance and escape traits identified, i.e. spikelet cooling, relatively high spikelet fertility, earlier start and peak time of anthesis and shorter spikelet anthesis duration can aid plant breeding programs targeting resilience in warmer climates.

Seed development and maturation in early spring-flowering Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus continues post-shedding with little evidence of maturation in planta.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Seeds of the moist temperate woodland species Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus, dispersed during spring or early summer, germinated poorly in laboratory tests. Seed development and maturation were studied to better understand the progression from developmental to germinable mode in order to improve seed collection and germination practices in these and similar species. METHODS: Phenology, seed mass, moisture content and ability to germinate and tolerate desiccation were monitored during seed development until shedding. Embryo elongation within seeds was investigated during seed development and under several temperature regimes after shedding. KEY RESULTS: Seeds were shed at high moisture content (>59 %) with little evidence that dry mass accumulation or embryo elongation were complete. Ability to germinate developed prior to the ability of some seeds to tolerate enforced desiccation. Germination was sporadic and slow. Embryo elongation occurred post-shedding in moist environments, most rapidly at 20 °C in G. nivalis and 15 °C in N. pseudonarcissus. The greatest germination also occurred in these regimes, 78 and 48 %, respectively, after 700 d. CONCLUSIONS: Seeds of G. nivalis and N. pseudonarcissus were comparatively immature at shedding and substantial embryo elongation occurred post-shedding. Seeds showed limited desiccation tolerance at dispersal.

Seed dormancy and germination of Ficus lundellii and tropical forest restoration.

We investigated seed dormancy and germination in Ficus lundellii Standl. (Moraceae), a native species of Mexico's Los Tuxtlas tropical rain forest. In an 8-h photoperiod at an alternating diurnal (16/8 h) temperature of 20/30 degrees C, germination was essentially complete (96%) within 28 days, whereas in darkness, all seeds remained dormant. Neither potassium nitrate (0.05-0.2%) applied continuously nor gibberellic acid applied either continuously (10-200 ppm) or as a 24 hour pretreatment (2000 ppm) induced germination in the dark. Germination in the light was not reduced by a 24-h hydrochloric acid (0.1-1%) pretreatment, but it was reduced both by a 24-h pretreatment with either H(2)O(2) (0.1-5 M) or 5% HCl, or by more than 5 days of storage at 40 degrees C (4.5% seed water content). In a study with a 2-dimensional temperature gradient plate, seeds germinated fully and rapidly in the light at a constant temperature of 30 degrees C, and fully but less rapidly in the light at alternating temperatures with low amplitudes (< 12 degrees C) about the optimal constant temperature. The base, optimal and ceiling temperatures for rate of germination were estimated as 13.8, 30.1 and 41.1 degrees C, respectively. In all temperature regimes, light was essential for the germination of F. lundellii seeds.

Saturated salt solutions for humidity control and the survival of dry powder and oil formulations of Beauveria bassiana conidia.

Oil-based formulated conidia sprayed on steel plates and conidia powder (control) of Beauveria bassiana isolate IMI 386243 were stored at temperatures from 10 to 40 degrees C in desiccators over saturated salt solutions providing relative humidities from 32 to 88%, or in hermetic storage at 40 degrees C, and moisture contents in equilibrium with 33 or 77% relative humidity. The negative semi-logarithmic relation (P<0.005) between conidia longevity (at 40 degrees C) and equilibrium relative humidity did not differ (P>0.25) between formulated conidia and conidia powder. Despite this, certain saturated salts provided consistently greater longevity (NaCl) and others consistently shorter longevity (KCl) for formulated conidia compared to conidia powder. These results, analysis of previous data, and comparison with hermetic storage, indicate that storage of conidia over saturated salt solutions provides inconsistent responses to environment and so may be problematic for bio-pesticide research. In hermetic storage, oil formulation was not deleterious to longevity and in the more moist environment enhanced survival periods.