Induced seismicity response of hydraulic fracturing: results of a multidisciplinary monitoring at the Wysin site, Poland.

Shale oil and gas exploitation by hydraulic fracturing experienced a strong development worldwide over the last years, accompanied by a substantial increase of related induced seismicity, either consequence of fracturing or wastewater injection. In Europe, unconventional hydrocarbon resources remain underdeveloped and their exploitation controversial. In UK, fracturing operations were stopped after the Mw 2.3 Blackpool induced earthquake; in Poland, operations were halted in 2017 due to adverse oil market conditions. One of the last operated well at Wysin, Poland, was monitored independently in the framework of the EU project SHEER, through a multidisciplinary system including seismic, water and air quality monitoring. The hybrid seismic network combines surface mini-arrays, broadband and shallow borehole sensors. This paper summarizes the outcomes of the seismological analysis of these data. Shallow artificial seismic noise sources were detected and located at the wellhead active during the fracturing stages. Local microseismicity was also detected, located and characterised, culminating in two events of Mw 1.0 and 0.5, occurring days after the stimulation in the vicinity of the operational well, but at very shallow depths. A sharp methane peak was detected ~19 hours after the Mw 0.5 event. No correlation was observed between injected volumes, seismicity and groundwater parameters.

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase.

Near-source observations show that earthquakes initiate with a distinctive seismic nucleation phase that is characterized by a low rate of moment release relative to the rest of the event. This phase was observed for the 30 earthquakes having moment magnitudes 2.6 to 8.1, and the size and duration of this phase scale with the eventual size of the earthquake. During the nucleation phase, moment release was irregular and appears to have been confined to a limited region of the fault. It was characteristically followed by quadratic growth in the moment rate as rupture began to propagate away from the nucleation zone. These observations suggest that the nucleation process exerts a strong influence on the size of the eventual earthquake.

Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 landers, california, earthquake.

The magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 triggered a remarkably sudden and widespread increase in earthquake activity across much of the western United States. The triggered earthquakes, which occurred at distances up to 1250 kilometers (17 source dimensions) from the Landers mainshock, were confined to areas of persistent seismicity and strike-slip to normal faulting. Many of the triggered areas also are sites of geothermal and recent volcanic activity. Static stress changes calculated for elastic models of the earthquake appear to be too small to have caused the triggering. The most promising explanations involve nonlinear interactions between large dynamic strains accompanying seismic waves from the mainshock and crustal fluids (perhaps including crustal magma).

The 1984 morgan hill, california, earthquake.

The Morgan Hill, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.1) of 24 April 1984 ruptured a 30-kilometer-long segment of the Calaveras fault zone to the east of San Jose. Although it was recognized in 1980 that an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurred on this segment in 1911 and that a repeat of this event might reasonably be expected, no short-term precursors were noted and so the time of the 1984 earthquake was not predicted. Unilateral rupture propagation toward the south-southeast and an energetic late source of seismic radiation located near the southeast end of the rupture zone contributed to the highly focused pattern of strong motion, including an exceptionally large horizontal acceleration of 1.29g at a site on a dam abutment near the southeast end of the rupture zone.

Variation of P-Wave Velocity before the Bear Valley, California, Earthquake of 24 February 1972.

Residuals for P-wave traveltimes at a seismnograph station near Bear Valley, California, for small, precisely located local earthquakes at distances of 20 to 70 kilometers show a sharp increase of nearly 0.3 second about 2 months before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake that occurred within a few kilometers of the station. This indicates that velocity changes observed elsewhere premonitory to earthquakes, possibly related to dilatancy, occur along the central section of the San Andreas fault system.

Point mugu, california, earthquake of 21 february 1973 and its aftershocks.

Seismological investigations show that the Point Mugu earthquake involved north-south crustal shortening deep within the complex fault zone that marks the southern front of the Transverse Ranges province. This earthquake sequence results from the same stress system responsible for the deformation in this province in the Pliocene through Holocene and draws attention to the significant earthquake hazard that the southern frontal fault system poses to the Los Angeles metropolitan area.