Genome-wide association studies of coffee intake in UK/US participants of European ancestry uncover cohort-specific genetic associations.

Coffee is one of the most widely consumed beverages. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of coffee intake in US-based 23andMe participants (N = 130,153) and identified 7 significant loci, with many replicating in three multi-ancestral cohorts. We examined genetic correlations and performed a phenome-wide association study across hundreds of biomarkers, health, and lifestyle traits, then compared our results to the largest available GWAS of coffee intake from the UK Biobank (UKB; N = 334,659). We observed consistent positive genetic correlations with substance use and obesity in both cohorts. Other genetic correlations were discrepant, including positive genetic correlations between coffee intake and psychiatric illnesses, pain, and gastrointestinal traits in 23andMe that were absent or negative in the UKB, and genetic correlations with cognition that were negative in 23andMe but positive in the UKB. Phenome-wide association study using polygenic scores of coffee intake derived from 23andMe or UKB summary statistics also revealed consistent associations with increased odds of obesity- and red blood cell-related traits, but all other associations were cohort-specific. Our study shows that the genetics of coffee intake associate with substance use and obesity across cohorts, but also that GWAS performed in different populations could capture cultural differences in the relationship between behavior and genetics.

A phenome-wide association and Mendelian randomisation study of alcohol use variants in a diverse cohort comprising over 3 million individuals.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is associated with numerous negative social and health outcomes. These associations may be direct consequences of drinking, or they may reflect common genetic factors that influence both alcohol consumption and other outcomes. METHODS: We performed exploratory phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) of three of the best studied protective single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes encoding ethanol metabolising enzymes (ADH1B: rs1229984-T, rs2066702-A; ADH1C: rs698-T) using up to 1109 health outcomes across 28 phenotypic categories (e.g., substance-use, mental health, sleep, immune, cardiovascular, metabolic) from a diverse 23andMe cohort, including European (N ≤ 2,619,939), Latin American (N ≤ 446,646) and African American (N ≤ 146,776) populations to uncover new and perhaps unexpected associations. These SNPs have been consistently implicated by both candidate gene studies and genome-wide association studies of alcohol-related behaviours but have not been investigated in detail for other relevant phenotypes in a hypothesis-free approach in such a large cohort of multiple ancestries. To provide insight into potential causal effects of alcohol consumption on the outcomes significant in the PheWAS, we performed univariable two-sample and one-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses. FINDINGS: The minor allele rs1229984-T, which is protective against alcohol behaviours, showed the highest number of PheWAS associations across the three cohorts (N = 232, European; N = 29, Latin American; N = 7, African American). rs1229984-T influenced multiple domains of health. We replicated associations with alcohol-related behaviours, mental and sleep conditions, and cardio-metabolic health. We also found associations with understudied traits related to neurological (migraines, epilepsy), immune (allergies), musculoskeletal (fibromyalgia), and reproductive health (preeclampsia). MR analyses identified evidence of causal effects of alcohol consumption on liability for 35 of these outcomes in the European cohort. INTERPRETATION: Our work demonstrates that polymorphisms in genes encoding alcohol metabolising enzymes affect multiple domains of health beyond alcohol-related behaviours. Understanding the underlying mechanisms of these effects could have implications for treatments and preventative medicine. FUNDING: MVJ, NCK, SBB, SSR and AAP were supported by T32IR5226 and 28IR-0070. SSR was also supported by NIDA DP1DA054394. NCK and RBC were also supported by R25MH081482. ASH was supported by funds from NIAAA K01AA030083. JLMO was supported by VA 1IK2CX002095. JLMO and JJMM were also supported by NIDA R21DA050160. JJMM was also supported by the Kavli Postdoctoral Award for Academic Diversity. EGA was supported by K01MH121659 from the NIMH/NIH, the Caroline Wiess Law Fund for Research in Molecular Medicine and the ARCO Foundation Young Teacher-Investigator Fund at Baylor College of Medicine. MSA was supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and co-funded by the European Union Found: Fondo Social Europeo Plus (FSE+) (P19/01224, PI22/00464 and CP22/00128).

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Coffee Intake in UK/US Participants of European Ancestry Uncover Gene-Cohort Influences.

Coffee is one of the most widely consumed beverages. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of coffee intake in US-based 23andMe participants (N=130,153) and identified 7 significant loci, with many replicating in three multi-ancestral cohorts. We examined genetic correlations and performed a phenome-wide association study across thousands of biomarkers and health and lifestyle traits, then compared our results to the largest available GWAS of coffee intake from UK Biobank (UKB; N=334,659). The results of these two GWAS were highly discrepant. We observed positive genetic correlations between coffee intake and psychiatric illnesses, pain, and gastrointestinal traits in 23andMe that were absent or negative in UKB. Genetic correlations with cognition were negative in 23andMe but positive in UKB. The only consistent observations were positive genetic correlations with substance use and obesity. Our study shows that GWAS in different cohorts could capture cultural differences in the relationship between behavior and genetics.

CADM2 is implicated in impulsive personality and numerous other traits by genome- and phenome-wide association studies in humans and mice.

Impulsivity is a multidimensional heritable phenotype that broadly refers to the tendency to act prematurely and is associated with multiple forms of psychopathology, including substance use disorders. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of eight impulsive personality traits from the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale and the short UPPS-P Impulsive Personality Scale (N = 123,509-133,517 23andMe research participants of European ancestry), and a measure of Drug Experimentation (N = 130,684). Because these GWAS implicated the gene CADM2, we next performed single-SNP phenome-wide studies (PheWAS) of several of the implicated variants in CADM2 in a multi-ancestral 23andMe cohort (N = 3,229,317, European; N = 579,623, Latin American; N = 199,663, African American). Finally, we produced Cadm2 mutant mice and used them to perform a Mouse-PheWAS ("MouseWAS") by testing them with a battery of relevant behavioral tasks. In humans, impulsive personality traits showed modest chip-heritability (~6-11%), and moderate genetic correlations (rg = 0.20-0.50) with other personality traits, and various psychiatric and medical traits. We identified significant associations proximal to genes such as TCF4 and PTPRF, and also identified nominal associations proximal to DRD2 and CRHR1. PheWAS for CADM2 variants identified associations with 378 traits in European participants, and 47 traits in Latin American participants, replicating associations with risky behaviors, cognition and BMI, and revealing novel associations including allergies, anxiety, irritable bowel syndrome, and migraine. Our MouseWAS recapitulated some of the associations found in humans, including impulsivity, cognition, and BMI. Our results further delineate the role of CADM2 in impulsivity and numerous other psychiatric and somatic traits across ancestries and species.

Prevalence of Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency, Self-Reported Behavior Change, and Health Care Engagement Among Direct-to-Consumer Recipients of a Personalized Genetic Risk Report.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is an autosomal co-dominant condition that predisposes to emphysema, cirrhosis, panniculitis, and vasculitis. Underrecognition has prompted efforts to enhance early detection and testing of at-risk individuals. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing represents an additional method of detection. RESEARCH QUESTION: The study addressed three questions: (1) Does a DTC testing service identify previously undetected individuals with AATD? (2) What was the interval between initial AATD-related symptoms and initial diagnosis of AATD in such individuals? and (3) What was the behavioral impact of learning about a new diagnosis of AATD through a DTC test? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, 195,014 individuals responded to a survey within the 23andMe, Inc. research platform. RESULTS: Among 195,014 study participants, the allele frequency for the PI∗S and PI∗Z AATD variants was 21.6% (6.5% for PI∗Z and 15.1% for PI∗S); 0.63% were PI∗ZZ, half of whom reported having a physician confirm the diagnosis. Approximately 27% of those with physician-diagnosed AATD reported first becoming aware of AATD through the DTC test. Among those newly aware participants, the diagnostic delay interval was 22.3 years. Participants frequently shared their DTC test results with health care providers (HCPs) and the reported impact of learning a diagnosis of AATD was high. For example, 51.1% of PI∗ZZ individuals shared their DTC result with an HCP. The OR for PI∗ZZ smokers to report smoking reduction as a result of receiving the DTC result was 1.7 (95% CI = 1.4-2.2) compared with those without a Z allele and for reduced alcohol consumption this was 4.0 (95% CI = 2.6-5.9). INTERPRETATION: In this largest available report on DTC testing for AATD, this test, in combination with clinical follow-up, can help to identify previously undiagnosed AATD patients. Moreover, receipt of the DTC AATD report was associated with positive behavior change, especially among those with risk variants.

Genome-wide association study of problematic opioid prescription use in 132,113 23andMe research participants of European ancestry.

The growing prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) constitutes an urgent health crisis. Ample evidence indicates that risk for OUD is heritable. As a surrogate (or proxy) for OUD, we explored the genetic basis of using prescription opioids 'not as prescribed'. We hypothesized that misuse of opiates might be a heritable risk factor for OUD. To test this hypothesis, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of problematic opioid use (POU) in 23andMe research participants of European ancestry (N = 132,113; 21% cases). We identified two genome-wide significant loci (rs3791033, an intronic variant of KDM4A; rs640561, an intergenic variant near LRRIQ3). POU showed positive genetic correlations with the two largest available GWAS of OUD and opioid dependence (rg = 0.64, 0.80, respectively). We also identified numerous additional genetic correlations with POU, including alcohol dependence (rg = 0.74), smoking initiation (rg = 0.63), pain relief medication intake (rg = 0.49), major depressive disorder (rg = 0.44), chronic pain (rg = 0.42), insomnia (rg = 0.39), and loneliness (rg = 0.28). Although POU was positively genetically correlated with risk-taking (rg = 0.38), conditioning POU on risk-taking did not substantially alter the magnitude or direction of these genetic correlations, suggesting that POU does not simply reflect a genetic tendency towards risky behavior. Lastly, we performed phenome- and lab-wide association analyses, which uncovered additional phenotypes that were associated with POU, including respiratory failure, insomnia, ischemic heart disease, and metabolic and blood-related biomarkers. We conclude that opioid misuse can be measured in population-based cohorts and provides a cost-effective complementary strategy for understanding the genetic basis of OUD.

Genetic risk for major depressive disorder and loneliness in sex-specific associations with coronary artery disease.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) and loneliness are phenotypically and genetically correlated with coronary artery disease (CAD), but whether these associations are explained by pleiotropic genetic variants or shared comorbidities is unclear. To tease apart these scenarios, we first assessed the medical morbidity pattern associated with genetic risk factors for MDD and loneliness by conducting a phenome-wide association study in 18,385 European-ancestry individuals in the Vanderbilt University Medical Center biobank, BioVU. Polygenic scores for MDD and loneliness were developed for each person using previously published meta-GWAS summary statistics, and were tested for association with 882 clinical diagnoses ascertained via billing codes in electronic health records. We discovered strong associations with heart disease diagnoses, and next embarked on targeted analyses of CAD in 3893 cases and 4197 controls. We found odds ratios of 1.11 (95% CI, 1.04-1.18; P 8.43 × 10-4) and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.07-1.20; P 4.51 × 10-6) per 1-SD increase in the polygenic scores for MDD and loneliness, respectively. Results were similar in patients without psychiatric symptoms, and the increased risk persisted in females even after adjusting for multiple conventional risk factors and a polygenic score for CAD. In a final sensitivity analysis, we statistically adjusted for the genetic correlation between MDD and loneliness and re-computed polygenic scores. The polygenic score unique to loneliness remained associated with CAD (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03-1.15; P 0.002), while the polygenic score unique to MDD did not (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.95-1.06; P 0.97). Our replication sample was the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort of 7197 European-ancestry participants (1598 incident CAD cases). In ARIC, polygenic scores for MDD and loneliness were associated with hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% CI, 0.99-1.14; P = 0.07) and 1.07 (1.01-1.15; P = 0.03), respectively, and we replicated findings from the BioVU sensitivity analyses. We conclude that genetic risk factors for MDD and loneliness act pleiotropically to increase CAD risk in females.

Direct-to-consumer genetic testing for factor V Leiden and prothrombin 20210G>A: the consumer experience.

BACKGROUND: Clinical genetic testing for inherited predisposition to venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common among patients and their families. However, there is incomplete consensus about which individuals should receive testing, and the relative risks and benefits. METHODS: We assessed outcomes of receiving direct-to-consumer (DTC) results for the two most common genetic risk factors for VTE, factor V Leiden in the F5 gene (FVL) and prothrombin 20210G>A in the F2 gene (PT). Two thousand three hundred fifty-four customers (1244 variant-positive and 1110 variant-negative individuals) of the personal genetics company 23andMe, Inc., who had received results online for F5 and F2 variants, participated in an online survey-based study. Participants responded to questions about perception of VTE risk, discussion of results with healthcare providers (HCPs) and recommendations received, actions taken to control risk, emotional responses to receiving risk results, and perceived value of the information. RESULTS: Most participants (90% of variant-positive individuals, 99% of variant-negative individuals) had not previously been tested for F5 and/or F2 variants. The majority of variant-positive individuals correctly perceived that they were at higher than average risk for developing VTE. These individuals reported moderate rates of discussing results with HCPs (41%); receiving prevention advice from HCPs (31%), and making behavioral changes to control risk (e.g., exercising more, 30%). A minority (36%) of variant-positive individuals worried more after receiving VTE results. Nevertheless, most participants reported that knowing their risk had been an advantage (78% variant-positive and 58% variant-negative) and were satisfied knowing their genetic probability for VTE (81% variant-positive and 67% variant-negative). CONCLUSION: Consumers reported moderate rates of behavioral change and perceived personal benefit from receiving DTC genetic results for VTE risk.

The Latent Genetic Structure of Impulsivity and Its Relation to Internalizing Psychopathology.

Factor analyses suggest that impulsivity traits that capture tendencies to act prematurely or take risks tap partially distinct constructs. We applied genomic structure equation modeling to evaluate the genetic factor structure of two well-established impulsivity questionnaires, using published statistics from genome-wide association studies of up to 22,861 participants. We also tested the hypotheses that delay discounting would be genetically separable from other impulsivity factors and that emotionally triggered facets of impulsivity (urgency) would be those most strongly genetically correlated with an internalizing latent factor. A five-factor model best fitted the impulsivity data. Delay discounting was genetically distinct from these five factors. As expected, the two urgency subscales were most strongly related to an internalizing-psychopathology latent factor. These findings provide empirical genetic evidence that impulsivity can be broken down into distinct categories of differential relevance for internalizing psychopathology. They also demonstrate how measured genetic markers can be used to inform theories of psychology and personality.

Author Correction: GWAS of lifetime cannabis use reveals new risk loci, genetic overlap with psychiatric traits, and a causal effect of schizophrenia liability.

Several occurrences of the word 'schizophrenia' have been re-worded as 'liability to schizophrenia' or 'schizophrenia risk', including in the title, which should have been "GWAS of lifetime cannabis use reveals new risk loci, genetic overlap with psychiatric traits, and a causal effect of schizophrenia liability," as well as in Supplementary Figures 1-10 and Supplementary Tables 7-10, to more accurately reflect the findings of the work.

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Impulsive Personality Traits (BIS-11 and UPPS-P) and Drug Experimentation in up to 22,861 Adult Research Participants Identify Loci in the CACNA1I and CADM2 genes.

Impulsive personality traits are complex heritable traits that are governed by frontal-subcortical circuits and are associated with numerous neuropsychiatric disorders, particularly drug abuse and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). In collaboration with the genetics company 23andMe, we performed 10 genome-wide association studies on measures of impulsive personality traits [the short version of the UPPS-P Impulsive Behavior Scale, and the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11)] and drug experimentation (the number of drug classes an individual had tried in their lifetime) in up to 22,861 male and female adult human research participants of European ancestry. Impulsive personality traits and drug experimentation showed single nucleotide polymorphism heritabilities that ranged from 5 to 11%. Genetic variants in the CADM2 locus were significantly associated with UPPS-P Sensation Seeking (p = 8.3 × 10-9, rs139528938) and showed a suggestive association with Drug Experimentation (p = 3.0 × 10-7, rs2163971; r2 = 0.68 with rs139528938). Furthermore, genetic variants in the CACNA1I locus were significantly associated with UPPS-P Negative Urgency (p = 3.8 × 10-8; rs199694726). The role of these genes was supported by single variant, gene- and transcriptome-based analyses. Multiple subscales from both UPPS-P and BIS showed strong genetic correlations (>0.5) with Drug Experimentation and other substance use traits measured in independent cohorts, including smoking initiation, and lifetime cannabis use. Several UPPS-P and BIS subscales were genetically correlated with ADHD (rg = 0.30-0.51), supporting their validity as endophenotypes. Our findings demonstrate a role for common genetic contributions to individual differences in impulsivity. Furthermore, our study is the first to provide a genetic dissection of the relationship between different types of impulsive personality traits and various psychiatric disorders.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Impulsive personality traits (IPTs) are heritable traits that are governed by frontal-subcortical circuits and are associated with neuropsychiatric disorders, particularly substance use disorders. We have performed genome-wide association studies of IPTs to identify regions and genes that account for this heritable variation. IPTs and drug experimentation were modestly heritable (5-11%). We identified an association between single nucleotide polymorphisms in CADM2 and both sensation seeking and drug experimentation; and between variants in CACNA1I and negative urgency. The role of these genes was supported by single variant, gene- and transcriptome-based analyses. This study provides evidence that impulsivity can be genetically separated into distinct components. We showed that IPT are genetically associated with substance use and ADHD, suggesting impulsivity is an endophenotype contributing to these psychiatric conditions.

Publisher Correction: Genome-wide association study of delay discounting in 23,217 adult research participants of European ancestry.

The author list was in the wrong order in the HTML version of the original article and in the HTML version of the original correction notice. This has been corrected to show the 23andMe Research Team as the fourth author and Abraham A. Palmer as the last author in both places.

Genome-wide association study of alcohol use disorder identification test (AUDIT) scores in 20 328 research participants of European ancestry.

Genetic factors contribute to the risk for developing alcohol use disorder (AUD). In collaboration with the genetics company 23andMe, Inc., we performed a genome-wide association study of the alcohol use disorder identification test (AUDIT), an instrument designed to screen for alcohol misuse over the past year. Our final sample consisted of 20 328 research participants of European ancestry (55.3% females; mean age = 53.8, SD = 16.1) who reported ever using alcohol. Our results showed that the 'chip-heritability' of AUDIT score, when treated as a continuous phenotype, was 12%. No loci reached genome-wide significance. The gene ADH1C, which has been previously implicated in AUD, was among our most significant associations (4.4 × 10-7 ; rs141973904). We also detected a suggestive association on chromosome 1 (2.1 × 10-7 ; rs182344113) near the gene KCNJ9, which has been implicated in mouse models of high ethanol drinking. Using linkage disequilibrium score regression, we identified positive genetic correlations between AUDIT score, high alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking. We also observed an unexpected positive genetic correlation between AUDIT and educational attainment and additional unexpected negative correlations with body mass index/obesity and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. We conclude that conducting a genetic study using responses to an online questionnaire in a population not ascertained for AUD may represent a cost-effective strategy for elucidating aspects of the etiology of AUD.

Genome-Wide Association Study Meta-Analysis of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in Two Population-Based Cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol use disorders are common conditions that have enormous social and economic consequences. Genome-wide association analyses were performed to identify genetic variants associated with a proxy measure of alcohol consumption and alcohol misuse and to explore the shared genetic basis between these measures and other substance use, psychiatric, and behavioral traits. METHOD: This study used quantitative measures from the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) from two population-based cohorts of European ancestry (UK Biobank [N=121,604] and 23andMe [N=20,328]) and performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis. Two additional GWAS analyses were performed, a GWAS for AUDIT scores on items 1-3, which focus on consumption (AUDIT-C), and for scores on items 4-10, which focus on the problematic consequences of drinking (AUDIT-P). RESULTS: The GWAS meta-analysis of AUDIT total score identified 10 associated risk loci. Novel associations localized to genes including JCAD and SLC39A13; this study also replicated previously identified signals in the genes ADH1B, ADH1C, KLB, and GCKR. The dimensions of AUDIT showed positive genetic correlations with alcohol consumption (rg=0.76-0.92) and DSM-IV alcohol dependence (rg=0.33-0.63). AUDIT-P and AUDIT-C scores showed significantly different patterns of association across a number of traits, including psychiatric disorders. AUDIT-P score was significantly positively genetically correlated with schizophrenia (rg=0.22), major depressive disorder (rg=0.26), and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (rg=0.23), whereas AUDIT-C score was significantly negatively genetically correlated with major depressive disorder (rg=-0.24) and ADHD (rg=-0.10). This study also used the AUDIT data in the UK Biobank to identify thresholds for dichotomizing AUDIT total score that optimize genetic correlations with DSM-IV alcohol dependence. Coding individuals with AUDIT total scores ≤4 as control subjects and those with scores ≥12 as case subjects produced a significant high genetic correlation with DSM-IV alcohol dependence (rg=0.82) while retaining most subjects. CONCLUSIONS: AUDIT scores ascertained in population-based cohorts can be used to explore the genetic basis of both alcohol consumption and alcohol use disorders.

GWAS of lifetime cannabis use reveals new risk loci, genetic overlap with psychiatric traits, and a causal influence of schizophrenia.

Cannabis use is a heritable trait that has been associated with adverse mental health outcomes. In the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) for lifetime cannabis use to date (N = 184,765), we identified eight genome-wide significant independent single nucleotide polymorphisms in six regions. All measured genetic variants combined explained 11% of the variance. Gene-based tests revealed 35 significant genes in 16 regions, and S-PrediXcan analyses showed that 21 genes had different expression levels for cannabis users versus nonusers. The strongest finding across the different analyses was CADM2, which has been associated with substance use and risk-taking. Significant genetic correlations were found with 14 of 25 tested substance use and mental health-related traits, including smoking, alcohol use, schizophrenia and risk-taking. Mendelian randomization analysis showed evidence for a causal positive influence of schizophrenia risk on cannabis use. Overall, our study provides new insights into the etiology of cannabis use and its relation with mental health.

Publisher Correction: Genome-wide association study of delay discounting in 23,217 adult research participants of European ancestry.

In the version of this article initially published, the consortium authorship was not presented correctly. The 23andMe Research Team was listed as the last author, rather than the fourth, and a line directing readers to the Supplementary Note for a list of members did appear but was not directly associated with the consortium name. Also, the Supplementary Note description stated that both member names and affiliations were included; in fact, only names are given. Finally, the URL for S-PrediXcan was given in the Methods as https://github.com/hakyimlab/S-PrediXcan; the correct URL is https://github.com/hakyimlab/MetaXcan. The errors have been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.

Genome-wide association study of delay discounting in 23,217 adult research participants of European ancestry.

Delay discounting (DD), the tendency to discount the value of delayed versus current rewards, is elevated in a constellation of diseases and behavioral conditions. We performed a genome-wide association study of DD using 23,127 research participants of European ancestry. The most significantly associated single-nucleotide polymorphism was rs6528024 (P = 2.40 × 10-8), which is located in an intron of the gene GPM6B. We also showed that 12% of the variance in DD was accounted for by genotype and that the genetic signature of DD overlapped with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, major depression, smoking, personality, cognition and body weight.

Can Radiologists Predict the Presence of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ and Invasive Breast Cancer?

OBJECTIVE: We hypothesize that radiologists' estimated percentage likelihood assessments for the presence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive cancer may predict histologic outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred fifty cases categorized as BI-RADS category 4 or 5 at four University of California Medical Centers were retrospectively reviewed by 10 academic radiologists with a range of 1-39 years in practice. Readers assigned BI-RADS category (1, 2, 3, 4a, 4b, 4c, or 5), estimated percentage likelihood of DCIS or invasive cancer (0-100%), and confidence rating (1 = low, 5 = high) after reviewing screening and diagnostic mammograms and ultrasound images. ROC curves were generated. RESULTS: Sixty-two percent (156/250) of lesions were benign and 38% (94/250) were malignant. There were 26 (10%) DCIS, 20 (8%) invasive cancers, and 48 (19%) cases of DCIS and invasive cancer. AUC values were 0.830-0.907 for invasive cancer and 0.731-0.837 for DCIS alone. Sensitivity of 82% (56/68), specificity of 84% (153/182), positive predictive value (PPV) of 66% (56/85), negative predictive value (NPV) of 93% (153/165), and accuracy of 84% ([56 + 153]/250) were calculated using an estimated percentage likelihood of 20% or higher as the prediction threshold for invasive cancer for the radiologist with the highest AUC (0.907; 95% CI, 0.864-0.951). Every 20% increase in the estimated percentage likelihood of invasive cancer increased the odds of invasive cancer by approximately two times (odds ratio, 2.4). For DCIS, using a threshold of 40% or higher, sensitivity of 81% (21/26), specificity of 79% (178/224), PPV of 31% (21/67), NPV of 97% (178/183), and accuracy of 80% ([21 + 178]/250) were calculated. Similarly, these values were calculated at thresholds of 2% or higher (BI-RADS category 4) and 95% or higher (BI-RADS category 5) to predict the presence of malignancy. CONCLUSION: Using likelihood estimates, radiologists may predict the presence of invasive cancer with fairly high accuracy. Radiologist-assigned estimated percentage likelihood can predict the presence of DCIS, albeit with lower accuracy than that for invasive cancer.

Inter-reader Variability in the Use of BI-RADS Descriptors for Suspicious Findings on Diagnostic Mammography: A Multi-institution Study of 10 Academic Radiologists.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to determine the inter-observer agreement among academic breast radiologists when using the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) lesion descriptors for suspicious findings on diagnostic mammography. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten experienced academic breast radiologists across five medical centers independently reviewed 250 de-identified diagnostic mammographic cases that were previously assessed as BI-RADS 4 or 5 with subsequent pathologic diagnosis by percutaneous or surgical biopsy. Each radiologist assessed the presence of the following suspicious mammographic findings: mass, asymmetry (one view), focal asymmetry (two views), architectural distortion, and calcifications. For any identified calcifications, the radiologist also described the morphology and distribution. Inter-observer agreement was determined with Fleiss kappa statistic. Agreement was also calculated by years of experience. RESULTS: Of the 250 lesions, 156 (62%) were benign and 94 (38%) were malignant. Agreement among the 10 readers was strongest for recognizing the presence of calcifications (k = 0.82). There was substantial agreement among the readers for the identification of a mass (k = 0.67), whereas agreement was fair for the presence of a focal asymmetry (k = 0.21) or architectural distortion (k = 0.28). Agreement for asymmetries (one view) was slight (k = 0.09). Among the categories of calcification morphology and distribution, reader agreement was moderate (k = 0.51 and k = 0.60, respectively). Readers with more experience (10 or more years in clinical practice) did not demonstrate higher levels of agreement compared to those with less experience. CONCLUSIONS: Strength of agreement varies widely for different types of mammographic findings, even among dedicated academic breast radiologists. More subtle findings such as asymmetries and architectural distortion demonstrated the weakest agreement. Studies that seek to evaluate the predictive value of certain mammographic features for malignancy should take into consideration the inherent interpretive variability for these findings.