Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The difference in smoking across socioeconomic groups is a major cause of health inequality. This study projected future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status, and revealed what is needed to achieve the tobacco-free ambition (TFA) by 2030 in England. METHODS: Using data from multiple sources, the adult (≥18 years) population in England was separated into subgroups by smoking and highest educational qualification (HEQ). A discrete time state-transition model was used to project future smoking prevalence by HEQ deterministically and stochastically. RESULTS: In a status quo scenario, smoking prevalence in England is projected to be 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 9.1% to 12.9%) by 2022, 7.8% (5.5% to 11.0%) by 2030 and 6.0% (3.7% to 9.6%) by 2040. The absolute difference in smoking rate between low and high HEQ is reduced from 12.2% in 2016 to 7.9% by 2030, but the relative inequality (low/high HEQ ratio) is increased from 2.48 in 2016 to 3.06 by 2030. When applying 2016 initiation/relapse rates, achievement of the TFA target requires no changes to future cessation rates among adults with high qualifications, but increased rates of 37% and 149%, respectively, in adults with intermediate and low qualifications. CONCLUSIONS: If the current trends continue, smoking prevalence in England is projected to decline in the future, but with substantial differences across socioeconomic groups. Absolute inequalities in smoking are likely to decline and relative inequalities in smoking are likely to increase in future. The achievement of England's TFA will require the reduction of both absolute and relative inequalities in smoking by socioeconomic status.

Impact of the NHS Stop Smoking Services on smoking prevalence in England: a simulation modelling evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The English National Health Service NHS Stop Smoking Services (SSS), established in 2001, were the first such services in the world. An appropriate evaluation of the SSS has national and international significance. This modelling study sought to evaluate the impact of the SSS on changes in smoking prevalence in England. METHODS: A discrete time state-transition model was developed to simulate changes in smoking status among the adult population in England during 2001-2016. Input parameters were based on data from national statistics, population representative surveys and published literature. The main outcome was the percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence attributable to the SSS. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence was reduced by 10.8 % in absolute terms during 2001-2016 in England, and 15.3 % of the reduction could be attributable to the SSS. The percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence each year was on average 0.72%, and 0.11 % could be attributable to the SSS. The proportion of SSS supported quit attempts increased from 5.5 % in 2001, to as high as 18.9 % in 2011, and then reduced to 8.2 % in 2016. Quit attempts with SSS support had a higher success rate than those without SSS support (15.1% vs 11.3%). Smoking prevalence in England continued to decline after the SSS was much reduced from 2013 onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 15% of the percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence during 2001-2016 in England may be attributable to the NHS SSS, although uncertainty remains regarding the actual impact of the formal smoking cessation services.

Impact of the NHS stop smoking services on smoking prevalence in England: a simulation modelling evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The English National Health Service (NHS) Stop Smoking Services (SSS), established in 2001, were the first such services in the world. An appropriate evaluation of the SSS has national and international significance. This modelling study sought to evaluate the impact of the SSS on changes in smoking prevalence in England. METHODS: A discrete time state-transition model was developed to simulate changes in smoking status among the adult population in England during 2001-2016. Input parameters were based on data from national statistics, population representative surveys and published literature. The main outcome was the percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence attributable to the SSS. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence was reduced by 10.8% in absolute terms during 2001-2016 in England, and 15.1% of the reduction could be attributable to the SSS. The percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence each year was on average 0.72%, and 0.11% could be attributable to the SSS. The proportion of SSS supported quit attempts increased from 5.6% in 2001, to as high as 19.3% in 2011, and then reduced to 8.4% in 2016. Quit attempts with SSS support had a higher success rate than those without SSS support (15.1%vs11.7%). Smoking prevalence in England continued to decline after the SSS was much reduced from 2013 onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 15% of the percentage point reduction in smoking prevalence during 2001-2016 in England may be attributable to the NHS SSS, although uncertainty remains regarding the actual impact of the formal smoking cessation services.

Discordance in glycemic categories and regression to normality at baseline in 10,000 people in a Type 2 diabetes prevention trial.

The world diabetes population quadrupled between 1980 and 2014 to 422 million and the enormous impact of Type 2 diabetes is recognised by the recent creation of national Type 2 diabetes prevention programmes. There is uncertainty about how to correctly risk stratify people for entry into prevention programmes, how combinations of multiple 'at high risk' glycemic categories predict outcome, and how the large recently defined 'at risk' population based on an elevated glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) should be managed. We identified all 141,973 people at highest risk of diabetes in our population, and screened 10,000 of these with paired fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c for randomisation into a very large Type 2 diabetes prevention trial. Baseline discordance rate between highest risk categories was 45.6%, and 21.3-37.0% of highest risk glycaemic categories regressed to normality between paired baseline measurements (median 40 days apart). Accurate risk stratification using both fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c data, the use of paired baseline data, and awareness of diagnostic imprecision at diagnostic thresholds would avoid substantial overestimation of the true risk of Type 2 diabetes and the potential benefits (or otherwise) of intervention, in high risk subjects entering prevention trials and programmes.

Factors associated with access to care and healthcare utilization in the homeless population of England.

Background: People experiencing homelessness are known to have complex health needs, which are often compounded by poor access to healthcare. This study investigates the individual-level factors associated with access to care and healthcare utilization among homeless people in England. Methods: A cross-sectional sample of 2505 homeless people from 19 areas of England was used to investigate associations with access to care and healthcare utilization. Results: Rough sleepers were much less likely to be registered with a general practitioner (GP) (odds ratio (OR) 0.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.30-0.66) than single homeless in accommodation (reference group) or the hidden homeless (OR 1.48, 95% CI 0.88-2.50). Those who had recently been refused registration by a GP or dentist also had lower odds of being admitted to hospital (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.49-0.91) or using an ambulance (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.54-0.99). Conclusions: The most vulnerable homeless people face the greatest barriers to utilizing healthcare. Rough sleepers have particularly low rates of GP registration and this appears to have a knock-on effect on admission to hospital. Improving primary care access for the homeless population could ensure that some of the most vulnerable people in society are able to access vital hospital services which they are currently missing out on.