ABSTRACT
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic many studies investigated the correlation between climate variables such as air quality, humidity and temperature and the lethality of COVID-19 around the world. In this work we investigate the use of climate variables, as additional features to train a data-driven multivariate forecast model to predict the short-term expected number of COVID-19 deaths in Brazilian states and major cities. The main idea is that by adding these climate features as inputs to the training of data-driven models, the predictive performance improves when compared to equivalent single input models. We use a Stacked LSTM as the network architecture for both the multivariate and univariate model. We compare both approaches by training forecast models for the COVID-19 deaths time series of the city of São Paulo. In addition, we present a previous analysis based on grouping K-means on AQI curves. The results produced will allow achieving the application of transfer learning, once a locality is eventually added to the task, regressing out using a model based on the cluster of similarities in the AQI curve. The experiments show that the best multivariate model is more skilled than the best standard data-driven univariate model that we could find, using as evaluation metrics the average fitting error, average forecast error, and the profile of the accumulated deaths for the forecast. These results show that by adding more useful features as input to a multivariate approach could further improve the quality of the prediction models.
Subject(s)
Air Pollution , COVID-19 , Air Pollution/analysis , Brazil , Humans , Humidity , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , TemperatureSubject(s)
Adrenal Cortex Hormones/administration & dosage , Fluorouracil/administration & dosage , Immunosuppressive Agents/administration & dosage , Latanoprost/administration & dosage , Needles , Phototherapy/methods , Tacrolimus/administration & dosage , Vitiligo/therapy , Administration, Cutaneous , Adolescent , Adult , Brazil , Combined Modality Therapy , Cosmetic Techniques , Female , Humans , Male , Middle AgedABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Melasma is a common chronic and relapsing acquired dyschromia. Skin microneedling was reported resulting sustained long-term improvement of recalcitrant melasma, however, the exact mechanism that promotes this skin lightening is not known. This study aimed to investigate clinical and histologic alterations promoted by skin microneedling in facial melasma. METHODS: Open pilot trial including six women with facial refractory melasma submitted to two sessions of microneedling (1.5 mm) each 30 days followed by daily triple combination and broad-spectrum sunscreen. Comparison of pretreatment (T0) and 15 days after last microneedling procedure (T45) was made by standardized pictures, skin colorimetry, MASI, MELASQoL and histological parameters (haematoxylin-eosin, picrosirius-red, periodic acid Schiff and Fontana-Masson staining). RESULTS: The age of the subjects varied from 34 to 46 years-old, the phototypes were III and IV (Fitzpatrick), and age of melasma onset was 20 to 38 years. Improvement of melasma was perceived in all subjects. There was a significant reduction of MASI score (-70%), MELASQoL (-55%) and increase in L* (+13%) colorimetric value (p < 0.03). All cases evidenced epithelium thickening, decrease in melanin pigmentation and densification of upper dermis collagen (p = 0.03). Patients were followed by 6 months under broad-spectrum sunscreen and triple combination without relapse. CONCLUSION: In addition to classic treatment (broad-spectrum sunscreen and triple combination), skin microneedling promoted clinical and histological improvement of refractory facial melasma.
Subject(s)
Collagen/therapeutic use , Cosmetic Techniques/instrumentation , Melanosis/therapy , Needles , Adult , Age of Onset , Female , Humans , Melanosis/pathology , Middle Aged , Pilot Projects , Quality of Life , Sunscreening AgentsABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Introduction: The leading cause of hospital-acquired infections are the pathogens named by the acronym ESKAPE, which are the initials for the following bacterial: Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumanni, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Enterobacter spp., which have high resistance rates by escaping the action of the antimicrobial. Objective: To trace the antimicrobial susceptibility profile of the ESKAPE pathogens in a primary public hospital in the Federal District, Brazil. Methods: A cross-sectional, retrospective and descriptive study was conducted by analyzing the corresponding data from January 2010 to December 2015 of samples considered positive to ESKAPE pathogens in order to generate an antimicrobial susceptibility profile. Results: Analyzing the Gram-positive bacteria, almost 80% of E. faecium strains were vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) and almost 40% of S. aureus strains were methicillin (oxacillin)-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). It was observed that gram-negative strains (the ESKAPE group) examined in this study have a higher resistance rate to carbapenems than in other studies. In the molecular analysis, four Klebsiella pneumoniae strains were positive to blaKPC gene, three strains to blaNDM and one Acinetobacter baumanni strain was positive to blaOXA-23 gene. Conclusion: Studies such as this should be performed periodically in order to evaluate the bacterial susceptibility profile. They demonstrate the importance of implementing strategies to prevent hospital-acquired infections, as well as greater antibiotic prescribing control.
RESUMO Introdução: Os principais patógenos causadores de infecções nosocomiais foram resumidos pela sigla ESKAPE, que são as iniciais das seguintes bactérias: Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumanni, Pseudomonas aeruginosa e Enterobacter spp., as quais possuem altas taxas de resistência por conseguirem escapar das ações dos antimicrobianos. Objetivo: Traçar o perfil de suscetibilidade antimicrobiana do grupo ESKAPE em um hospital primário da rede pública do Distrito Federal, Brasil. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo transversal, retrospectivo e descritivo, analisando os dados correspondentes de janeiro de 2010 a dezembro de 2015 para as amostras consideradas positivas para o grupo ESKAPE, com o intuito de gerar um perfil de sensibilidade aos antimicrobianos. Resultados: Ao analisar bactérias Gram positivas, quase 80% das cepas de Enterococcus faecium foram resistentes à vancomicina (VRE) e cerca de 40% das cepas de Staphylococcus aureus, resistentes à oxacilina (MRSA). Nas bactérias do grupo ESKAPE, observaram-se cepas com uma taxa de resistência maior aos carbapenens do que em outros estudos. Ao realizar uma análise molecular, quatro cepas de Klebsiella pneumoniae foram positivas para o gene blaKPC e três, para o blaNDM; uma de Acinetobacter baumanni foi positiva para o gene blaOXA-23. Conclusão: Estudos como este devem ser realizados periodicamente de modo a avaliar o perfil de suscetibilidade das bactérias. Eles demonstram a importância do uso de estratégias para evitar infecções nosocomiais, bem como um maior controle na prescrição de antimicrobianos.