Semiquantitative Decision Tools for FMD Emergency Vaccination Informed by Field Observations and Simulated Outbreak Data.

We present two simple, semiquantitative model-based decision tools, based on the principle of first 14 days incidence (FFI). The aim is to estimate the likelihood and the consequences, respectively, of the ultimate size of an ongoing FMD epidemic. The tools allow risk assessors to communicate timely, objectively, and efficiently to risk managers and less technically inclined stakeholders about the potential of introducing FMD suppressive emergency vaccination. To explore the FFI principle with complementary field data, we analyzed the FMD outbreaks in Argentina in 2001, with the 17 affected provinces as the units of observation. Two different vaccination strategies were applied during this extended epidemic. In a series of 5,000 Danish simulated FMD epidemics, the numbers of outbreak herds at day 14 and at the end of the epidemics were estimated under different control strategies. To simplify and optimize the presentation of the resulting data for urgent decisions to be made by the risk managers, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, as well as the negative and positive predictive values, using a chosen day-14 outbreak number as predictor of the magnitude of the number of remaining post-day-14 outbreaks under a continued basic control strategy. Furthermore, during an ongoing outbreak, the actual cumulative number of detected infected herds at day 14 will be known exactly. Among the number of epidemics lasting >14 days out of the 5,000 simulations under the basic control scenario, we selected those with an assumed accumulated number of detected outbreaks at day 14. The distribution of the estimated number of detected outbreaks at the end of the simulated epidemics minus the number at day 14 was estimated for the epidemics lasting more than 14 days. For comparison, the same was done for identical epidemics (i.e., seeded with the same primary outbreak herds) under a suppressive vaccination scenario. The results indicate that, during the course of an FMD epidemic, simulated likelihood predictions of the remaining epidemic size and of potential benefits of alternative control strategies can be presented to risk managers and other stakeholders in objective and easily communicable ways.

Vector-borne disease surveillance in livestock populations: A critical review of literature recommendations and implemented surveillance (BTV-8) in five European countries.

Preparedness against vector-borne threats depends on the existence of a long-term, sustainable surveillance of vector-borne disease and their relevant vectors. This work reviewed the availability of such surveillance systems in five European countries (Denmark, France, The Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom, part of the CoVetLab network). A qualitative assessment was then performed focusing on surveillance directed particularly to BTV-8. Information regarding surveillance activities were reviewed for the years 2008 and 2012. The results were then complemented with a critical scoping review of the literature aimed at identifying disease surveillance strategies and methods that are currently suggested as best suited to target vector-borne diseases in order to guide future development of surveillance in the countries in question. Passive surveillance was found to be efficient for early detection of diseases during the early phase of introduction into a free country. However, its value diminished once the disease has been established in a territory. Detection of emerging diseases was found to be very context and area specific, and thus active surveillance designs need to take the available epidemiological, ecological and entomological information into account. This was demonstrated by the effectiveness of the bulk milk surveillance in detecting the first case in Sweden, highlighting the need for output based standards to allow the most effective, context dependent, surveillance strategies to be used. Preparedness was of fundamental importance in determining the timeliness of detection and control in each country and that this in turn was heavily influenced by knowledge of emerging diseases in neighboring countries. Therefore it is crucial to share information on outbreaks between researchers and decision-makers and across borders continuously in order to react timely in case of an outbreak. Furthermore, timely reaction to an outbreak was heavily influenced by availability of control measures (vaccines), which is also strengthened if knowledge is shared quickly between countries. The assessment of the bluetongue surveillance in the affected countries showed that the degree of voluntary engagement varied, and that it is important to engage the public by general awareness and dissemination of results. The degree of engagement will also aid in establishing a passive surveillance system.

Weaner production with low antimicrobial usage: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Health, productivity and antimicrobial use in the production of pigs are expected to be interrelated to some extent. Previous studies on register-based data have investigated these correlations with a subsequent large variation residing at the farm level. In order to study such farm factors in more detail we designed an elaborate interview-guide. By in-depth interviews of farmers with well-managed 7-30 kg (weaner) productions we sought to describe a set of common key-factors characterizing their management practices. Identification of such common practices could be used in follow-up projects, investigating whether identified factors really are characteristic for good-practicing famers. RESULTS: Eleven farms were selected for a farm visit and in-depth interview. Participating farms used less antimicrobials than the national median (8.2 animal daily doses/100 weaners/day), had a mortality below the national average (2.9%) and an average daily weight gain above the national average (443 g/day). Similarities were observed among participating farms, including the sectioning of farms, use of all-in-all-out procedures with subsequent cleaning, purchasing 7 kg weaners from only one source, as well as active participation in management by a committed farm owner. Most farmers had a specific point of focus in their management, and were convinced that this was the reason for their success. This included; feeding, treatment strategy, refurbishment of facilities and presence in the shed. CONCLUSION: According to register data, participating farms were alike; in the good league regarding use of antimicrobials, mortality and daily growth. However, on-farm interviews elucidated more heterogeneity among farmers than expected. Most of the farmers had a specific point of focus, which they considered to be crucial for their good results. These results indicate the importance of non-registerable factors, highlighting the value of qualitative study techniques in the understanding of human actions. Further studies on the effect of various farmer types are recommended.

Challenges for bovine viral diarrhoea virus antibody detection in bulk milk by antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays due to changes in milk production levels.

BACKGROUND: Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) is considered eradicated from Denmark. Currently, very few (if any) Danish cattle herds could be infected with BVD virus (BVDV). The Danish antibody blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) has been successfully used during the Danish BVD eradication program, initiated in 1994. During the last decade, the cattle herd size has increased while the prevalence of BVDV has decreased. In this study, we investigated how these changes could affect the performance of the Danish blocking ELISA and of the SVANOVIR® BVDV-Ab indirect ELISA. The latter has successfully been used to eradicate BVD in Sweden. Data (2003-2010) on changes in median herd size and milk production levels, occurrence of viremic animals and bulk milk surveillance were analysed. Additionally, the Danish blocking ELISA and the SVANOVIR ELISA were compared analyzing milk and serum samples. The prevalence of antibody positive milking cows that could be detected by each test was estimated, by diluting positive individual milk samples and making artificial milk pools. RESULTS: During the study period, the median herd size increased from 74 (2003) to 127 cows (2010), while the prevalence of BVDV infected herds decreased from 0.51 to 0.02 %. The daily milk yield contribution of a single seropositive cow to the entire daily bulk milk was reduced from 1.61 % in 2003 to 0.95 % in 2010 due to the increased herd size. It was observed that antibody levels in bulk milk decreased at national level. Moreover, we found that when testing bulk milk, the SVANOVIR® BVDV-Ab can detect a lower prevalence of seropositive lactating cows, compared to the Danish blocking ELISA (0.78 % vs. 50 %). Values in the SVANOVIR® BVDV-Ab better relate to low concentrations of antibody positive milk (R(2) = 94-98 %), than values in the blocking ELISA (R(2) = 23-75 %). For sera, the two ELISAs performed equally well. CONCLUSIONS: The SVANOVIR ELISA is recommended for analysis of bulk milk samples in the current Danish situation, since infected dairy herds e.g. due to import of infected cattle can be detected shortly after BVDV introduction, when only few lactating cows have seroconverted. In sera, the two ELISAs can be used interchangeably.

Optimal vaccination strategies against vector-borne diseases.

Using a process oriented semi-agent based model, we simulated the spread of Bluetongue virus by Culicoides, biting midges, between cattle in Denmark. We evaluated the minimum vaccination cover and minimum cost for eight different preventive vaccination strategies in Denmark. The simulation model replicates both a passive and active flight of midges between cattle distributed on pastures and cattle farms in Denmark. A seasonal abundance of midges and temperature dependence of biological processes were included in the model. The eight vaccination strategies were investigated under four different grazing conditions. Furthermore, scenarios were tested with three different index locations stratified for cattle density. The cheapest way to vaccinate cattle with a medium risk profile (less than 1000 total affected cattle) was to vaccinate cattle on pasture. Regional vaccination displayed better results when index cases were in the vaccinated areas. However, given that the long-range spread of midge borne disease is still poorly quantified, more robust national vaccination schemes seem preferable.

Stochastic simulation modeling to determine time to detect Bovine Viral Diarrhea antibodies in bulk tank milk.

A stochastic simulation model was developed to estimate the time from introduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) in a herd to detection of antibodies in bulk tank milk (BTM) samples using three ELISAs. We assumed that antibodies could be detected, after a fixed threshold prevalence of seroconverted milking cows was reached in the herd. Different thresholds were set for each ELISA, according to previous studies. For each test, antibody detection was simulated in small (70 cows), medium (150 cows) and large (320 cows) herds. The assays included were: (1) the Danish blocking ELISA, (2) the SVANOVIR(®)BVDV-Ab ELISA, and (3) the ELISA BVD/MD p80 Institute Pourquier. The validation of the model was mainly carried out by comparing the predicted incidence of persistently infected (PI) calves and the predicted detection time, with records from a BVD infected herd. Results showed that the SVANOVIR, which was the most efficient ELISA, could detect antibodies in the BTM of a large herd 280 days (95% prediction interval: 218; 568) after a transiently infected (TI) milking cow has been introduced into the herd. The estimated time to detection after introduction of one PI calf was 111 days (44; 605). With SVANOVIR ELISA the incidence of PIs and dead born calves could be limited and the impact of the disease on the animal welfare and income of farmers (before detection) could be minimized. The results from the simulation modeling can be used to improve the current Danish BVD surveillance program in detecting early infected herds.

Quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus in Danish dairy herds.

A quantitative risk assessment was carried out to estimate the likelihood of introducing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in Danish dairy herds per year and per trimester, respectively. The present study gives important information on the impact of risk mitigation measures and sources of uncertainty due to lack of data. As suggested in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement), the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code was followed for a transparent science-based risk assessment. Data from 2010 on imports of live cattle, semen, and embryos, exports of live cattle, as well as use of vaccines were analyzed. Information regarding the application of biosecurity measures, by veterinarians and hoof trimmers practicing in Denmark and in other countries, was obtained by contacting several stakeholders, public institutions and experts. Stochastic scenario trees were made to evaluate the importance of the various BVDV introduction routes. With the current surveillance system, the risk of BVDV introduction was estimated to one or more introductions within a median of nine years (3-59). However, if all imported animals were tested and hoof trimmers always disinfected the tools used abroad, the risk could be reduced to one or more introductions within 33 years (8-200). Results of this study can be used to improve measures of BVD surveillance and prophylaxis in Danish dairy herds.

A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different control scenarios: 1) A basic scenario representing EU and Danish control strategies, 2) pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds within a 500 meters radius around the detected herds, and 3) suppressive vaccination of susceptible herds within a 1,000 meters radius around the detected herds. Depopulation and vaccination started 14 days following the detection of the first infected herd. Five thousand index herds were selected randomly, of which there were 1,000 cattle herds located in high density cattle areas and 1,000 in low density cattle areas, 1,000 swine herds located in high density swine areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre-emptive depopulation, while DTU-DADS was indifferent to the alternative control strategies. Nonetheless, the absolute differences between control strategies were small making the choice of control strategy during an outbreak to be most likely based on practical reasons.

Simulating spread of Bluetongue Virus by flying vectors between hosts on pasture.

Bluetongue is a disease of ruminants which reached Denmark in 2007. We present a process-based stochastic simulation model of vector-borne diseases, where host animals are not confined to a central geographic farm coordinate, but can be distributed onto pasture areas. Furthermore vectors fly freely and display search behavior to locate areas with hosts. We also include wind spread of vectors, host movements, and vector seasonality. Results show that temperature and seasonality of vectors determines the period in which an incursion of Bluetongue may lead to epidemic spread in Denmark. Within this period of risk the number of infected hosts is affected by temperature, vector abundance, vector behavior, vectors' ability to locate hosts, and use of pasture. These results indicate that restricted grazing during outbreaks can reduce the number of infected hosts and the size of the affected area. The model can be implemented on other vector-borne diseases of grazing animals.

Infectious risk factors for individual postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) development in pigs from affected farms in Spain and Denmark.

Two prospective longitudinal studies in 13 postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS)-affected farms from Spain (n=3) and Denmark (n=10) were performed. Blood samples from pigs were longitudinally collected from 1st week until the occurrence of the PMWS outbreak. Wasted and healthy age-matched pigs were euthanized, necropsied and histopathologically characterised. PMWS diagnosis was confirmed by means of lymphoid lesions and detection of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in these tissues by in situ hybridization or immunohistochemistry. Serological analyses were performed in longitudinally collected serum samples to detect antibodies against, PCV2, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), porcine parvovirus (PPV), swine influenza virus (SIV) and Lawsonia intracellularis (law), Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae, Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) and Salmonella spp. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the simultaneous effects of seroconversion and maternal immunity against the studied pathogens. Results showed that high levels of maternal immunity against PCV2 had a protecting effect in farms from both countries. Moreover, for the Danish dataset, seroconversion against law had an overall protecting effect, but for animals with very low levels of maternal antibody levels against this pathogen, the effect appeared neutral or aggravating. Otherwise, for the Spanish dataset, maternal immunity against PPV and PRRSV gave protective and aggravating effects, respectively. In conclusion, the present study reflects the complex interaction among different pathogens and their effects in order to trigger PMWS in PCV2 infected pigs.

Antimicrobial use in Danish pig herds with and without postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome.

A retrospective cohort study was performed on 130 pig herds in Denmark, to assess the effect of PMWS on the use of antimicrobial drug. The study comprised 65 herds diagnosed with PMWS during 2003-2004, and matched by the veterinary practitioner with 65 herds free from PMWS. Information on antimicrobial use 1 year before and 1 year after the diagnosis was achieved from the National Prescription Medicine Monitoring Database, VetStat, and summarized on quarter within age group and herd. The multiple linear regression analysis comprised antimicrobial use as the outcome variable with (1) quarter relative to diagnosis of PMWS in the positive herd (same date for the negative match), (2) diagnosis of PMWS (same date used for matched PMWS(-) herd), (3) season and (4) temporal trend as fixed effects. Relative to the unaffected herds, the antimicrobial use in the sow units in the PMWS(+) herds was elevated significantly by 35% in the last quarter and 43% in the fourth quarter before positive diagnosis in the herds (p<0.05). In weaner pigs, the antimicrobial use increased significantly two quarters before, and one quarter after the positive diagnosis, by 68%, 91% and 124% respectively. In weaner pigs, effects were seen of herd size and season. The study support that increased morbidity occur for an extended period prior to the diagnosis of PMWS, both in the sow units and the weaner pig units and further indicate that the syndrome cease after the diagnosis, with a decrease in need for antimicrobial treatment.

A study on the applicability of implantable microchip transponders for body temperature measurements in pigs.

BACKGROUND: The applicability of an electronic monitoring system using microchip transponders for measurement of body temperatures was tested in 6-week-old conventional Danish weaners infected with classical swine fever virus (CSFV). Subcutaneous tissue temperatures obtained by the implantable transponders were compared with rectal temperatures, recorded by a conventional digital thermometer. METHODS: In a preliminary study, transponders were inserted subcutaneously at 6 different positions of the body of 5 pigs. The transponders positioned by the ear base provided the best correlation to rectal temperature. To test the stability of the monitoring system in a larger group of pigs, transponders were therefore inserted by the left ear base in a subsequent infection experiment with 30 pigs. RESULTS: Generally, the microchip transponders measured a subcutaneous tissue temperature, which was about 1 degrees C lower than the rectal temperature. However, a simple linear relationship between the measures of the two methods was found. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that the tested body monitoring system may represent a promising tool to obtain an approximate correlate of body temperatures in groups of pigs. In contrast, however, the tested system did not constitute a suitable tool to measure body temperatures of individual animals in the present pig infection experiment.

Induction of porcine post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) in pigs from PMWS unaffected herds following mingling with pigs from PMWS-affected herds.

In this paper we present the results from two experimental studies (I and II) investigating whether post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) can be induced in pigs from PMWS unaffected herds by mingling with pigs from PMWS-affected herds and to observe whether transportation and/or mingling of healthy pigs from unaffected herds could induce PMWS. The studies comprised pigs from 12 different herds. Eight herds had PMWS while four were unaffected. All 12 herds were found to be infected with PCV2. Pigs from PMWS-affected herds were mingled with pigs from unaffected herds in four separate compartments in both study I and study II. In addition, in study II, four groups of pigs from unaffected herds were included. Two groups with pigs transported and mingled from unaffected herds and two groups with pigs which were only transported. The PMWS diagnoses on the individual pigs were based on lymphoid depletion, histiocytic proliferation and the presence of giant cells or inclusion bodies together with the demonstration of PCV2 in lymphoid tissue. Healthy pigs, in both studies, developed PMWS 4-5 weeks after mingling with pigs clinically affected with PMWS. None of the pigs from unaffected herds which had no contact with pigs from PMWS-affected herds developed clinical signs of PMWS. Transportation and mingling of pigs from PMWS unaffected herds in combination or alone was insufficient to provoke PMWS.

Infection, excretion and seroconversion dynamics of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in pigs from post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) affected farms in Spain and Denmark.

Longitudinal case-control studies were performed in post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) affected farms from Denmark and Spain using similar designs. Fourteen independent batches of 100-154 pigs per batch were monitored from birth to PMWS outbreak occurrence. Pigs displaying PMWS-like signs and matched healthy cohorts were euthanized during the clinical outbreak. PMWS was diagnosed according to internationally accepted criteria and pigs were classified as: (i) PMWS cases, (ii) wasted non-PMWS cases and (iii) healthy pigs. Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) quantitative PCR (qPCR) and serology techniques were applied to analyse longitudinally collected sera and/or nasal and rectal swabs. Results showed that PCV2 load increased in parallel to waning maternal antibody levels, reaching the maximum viral load concurrent with development of clinical signs. PMWS affected pigs had higher PCV2 prevalence and/or viral load than healthy pigs in all collected samples at necropsy (p<0.0001-0.05) and even in sera and nasal swabs at the sampling prior to PMWS outbreak (p<0.01-0.05). Danish farms had a higher PCV2 prevalence in young piglets as well as an earlier PMWS presentation compared to Spanish farms. PMWS diagnoses were confirmed by laboratory tests in only half of pigs clinically suspected to suffer from PMWS. Positive and significant correlations were found among PCV2 viral loads present in sera, nasal swabs, rectal swabs and lymphoid tissues (R=0.289-0.827, p<0.0001-0.01), which indicates that nasal and rectal swabs were suitable indicators of PCV2 excretion. Sensitivity and/or specificity values observed from both tests used separately or combined suggested that qPCR and/or serology tests are not apparently able to substitute histopathology plus detection of PCV2 in tissues for the individual PMWS diagnosis within PMWS affected farms. However, qPCR appears to be a potential reliable technique to diagnose PMWS on a population basis.

Risk-based analysis of the Danish pork Salmonella program: past and future.

The Danish pork Salmonella control program was initiated in 1993 in response to a prominent pork-related outbreak in Copenhagen. It involved improved efforts at slaughter hygiene (postharvest) and on-farm (preharvest) surveillance and control. After 10 years, 95 million Euros, significant reductions in seropositive herds, Salmonella positive carcasses, and pork-attributable human cases (PAHC), questions have arisen about how best to continue this program. The objective of this study was to provide some analysis and information to address these questions. The methods used include a computer simulation model constructed of a series of Excel workbooks, one for each simulated year and scenario (http://www.ifss.iastate/DanSalmRisk). Each workbook has three modules representing the key processes affecting risk: seropositive pigs leaving the farm (Production), carcass contamination after slaughter (Slaughter), and PAHC of Salmonella (Attribution). Parameter estimates are derived from an extensive farm-to-fork database collected by industry and government and managed by the Danish Zoonosis Centre (http://www.food.dtu.dk). Retrospective (1994-2003) and prospective (2004-2013) simulations were evaluated. The retrospective simulations showed that, except for the first few years (1994-1998), the on-farm program had minimal impact in reducing the number of positive carcasses and PAHC. Most of the reductions in PAHC up to 2003 were, according to this analysis, due to various improvements in abattoir processes. Prospective simulations showed that minimal reductions in human health risk (PAHC) could be achieved with on-farm programs alone. Carcass decontamination was shown as the most effective means of reducing human risk, reducing PAHC to about 10% of the simulated 2004 level.

Use of a novel serum ELISA method and the tonsil-carrier state for evaluation of Mycoplasma hyosynoviae distributions in pig herds with or without clinical arthritis.

A novel indirect ELISA test using deoxycholate extracted antigens coated onto a hydrophobic polystyrene surface for measurement of serum antibodies specific for Mycoplasma hyosynoviae was developed. Sensitivity and specificity of the test were found to be superior to previous ELISAs as tested on porcine serum following experimental Mycoplasma infections as well as by analysis of samples from one Danish herd known to be free of M. hyosynoviae and samples from two Norwegian herds without clinical suspicion of M. hyosynoviae infections since their establishment. The epidemiology of M. hyosynoviae infection was then investigated in Danish pig herds with evidence of clinical M. hyosynoviae arthritis (MhA herds, n = 4) and in herds with M. hyosynoviae-carriers among slaughter pigs, but with limited clinical lameness (MhC herds, n = 4). M. hyosynoviae bacteriaemia and tonsil-carrier state were determined by culture of cross-sectional samples of whole-blood (n = 238) and tonsil scrapings (n = 322), respectively. Levels of serum antibodies (n = 396) were measured by the novel indirect ELISA test. There was no significant difference in the ELISA results between the MhA and the MhC herds. Pigs that were tonsil-carriers had a significantly higher response in the ELISA test (P < 0.001) than non-carriers. Slaughter pigs showed higher ELISA values (P < 0.001) and they were more prone to be tonsil-carriers (P < 0.001). The most critical period for spread of the infection seems to be the nursery period (4-12 weeks). The results indicate that M. hyosynoviae infection progresses similarly in herds irrespective of the presence of clinical arthritis. Thus, clinical arthritis due to M. hyosynoviae is probably triggered by other host or herd factors than low levels of serum antibodies or by differences in virulence factors between M. hyosynoviae strains.

Spatial and temporal patterns of pig herds diagnosed with Postweaning Multisystemic Wasting Syndrome (PMWS) during the first two years of its occurrence in Denmark.

The clinical syndrome Postweaning Multisystemic Wasting Syndrome (PMWS) in pigs has emerged globally during the last decade. In October 2001, the first pig herd diagnosed with PMWS was reported in Denmark, and since then the number of herds diagnosed with PMWS has increased markedly. The etiology of PMWS is not well understood, but increased knowledge of the causal factors is prerequisite for applying preventive interventions. In this study we described the temporal (time of diagnosis), spatial (location of herds) and spatio-temporal pattern of Danish pig herds diagnosed with PMWS during the first two years after the first herd was diagnosed, and we tested for spatial and spatio-temporal clustering using scan statistics. The study population consisted of pig herds that during the study period (October 2001-September 2003) performed diagnostic submissions to the two major veterinary diagnostic laboratories in Denmark (6724 herds). Of these, 277 herds were diagnosed with PMWS. Two statistically significant spatial clusters of herds diagnosed with PMWS were identified. These clusters included 11% and 8% of the study herds, respectively. Within these two clusters the relative risk for a herd to be diagnosed with PMWS was twice as high as expected. One statistically significant spatio-temporal cluster was identified between February and May 2002. We discuss different hypotheses that could explain why pig herds diagnosed with PMWS were clustered both spatially and spatio-temporally, and conclude that the results support the hypothesis that PMWS is caused by introduction of a new, unidentified, pathogen into the Danish pig production.

Observer agreement on pen level prevalence of clinical signs in finishing pigs.

Four observers performed a standard clinical examination of finisher pigs in two commercial finisher herds. In herd 1,600 finisher pigs in 44 pens were examined. The observers assessed clinical signs of lameness, umbilical hernia and tail bite according to a standardized procedure. The prevalence of the clinical signs was estimated at the pen level. The procedure was repeated after 3 months in another herd, where 730 finisher pigs in 69 pens were examined. The agreement between observer pairs was assessed using prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK) and proportionate-agreement estimates (Ppo) and Pneg). Observer bias was present despite training and standardization of the participating observers. The highest pen level agreement for the observer pairs was found for pens that had one or more pigs with tail bite (PABAK = 0.82-1.00) and umbilical hernia (PABAK = 0.77-1.00). The agreement was fair-to-moderate for identification of pens holding one or more lame pigs (PABAK = 0.27-0.7). In general, the average agreement of observer pairs on absence of clinical signs (Pneg) was higher than for presence (Ppos). The observer bias varied between observer pairs and with the clinical signs.

The need for built-in validation of surveillance data so that changes in diagnostic performance of post-mortem meat inspection can be detected.

Time trends in animal-disease surveillance often are evaluated on the basis of crude estimates of apparent prevalence. In addition to possible changes in the true prevalence of the condition, changes in apparent prevalence over time might reflect changes in sensitivity and/or specificity of the diagnostic classification used. To illustrate this, comparative post-mortem meat inspection data from four Danish slaughter plants sampled in 1993-1994 and 1997-1998 were used to obtain latent-class model estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of traditional and extended post-mortem meat inspection of visceral and parietal chronic pleuritis (CP), respectively.True prevalence of CP was estimated for each study period and slaughter plant by latent-class models. Estimated sensitivities of traditional post-mortem meat (TPM) inspection ranged from 28.8 to 61.4% (1993-1994) and 39.2 to 87.3% (1997-1998). An increase in sensitivity with time was seen for all slaughter plants. Estimated sensitivities of extended post-mortem meat (EPM) inspection ranged from 85.7 to 94.8% (1993-1994) and 73.8 to 93.0% (1997-1998). All estimated specificities were >93.3%. The possible association of the estimated true prevalence of CP with time (1993-1994 versus 1997-1998) was investigated with a logistic-regression model with random effects. A slight, but non-significant decrease in the odds of CP from 1994 to 1998 was found (odds ratio=0.9). In this and similar situations, one should consider conducting ongoing double-classification of samples of units followed by statistical estimation of true prevalences, sensitivities and specificities, so that decisions can be based on such estimates rather than on crude apparent prevalences.

Infectious and rearing-system related risk factors for chronic pleuritis in slaughter pigs.

Chronic pleuritis (CP) in Danish pigs for slaughter is by far the most frequent finding at the routine post-mortem meat inspection. An initial investigation published in 1990 demonstrated infectious and management-related risk factors. Serological testing for additional infectious agents, as well as the need to consider the effect of disease clustering at the herd level, required a re-analysis of the data. Our re-analysis used a representative sample of 4,800 pigs originating from 623 Danish herds. Each pig was examined for the presence of CP and progressive atrophic rhinitis (PAR). The gender of the pig, the weight of the carcass, and the herd of origin were also recorded. Individual blood samples were examined for seropositivity for Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae (AP) serotypes 2, 6, 7, 12, Haemophilus parasuis, Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (MYC) and swine influenza (SI). Herd-level information retrieved through a questionnaire included health status, production type, herd size (i.e. pigs per year) and vaccination procedures. Associations between CP and infectious, individual and herd-related factors were investigated by logistic regression with random effects. Among pigs from herds with conventional health status, seropositivity for AP serotypes 2 and 6, and MYC had odds ratios (ORs) of CP of 9.0, 1.6 and 1.8, respectively. Neither seropositivity for AP serotype 7 nor SI were associated with CP by themselves, but interacted: OR of CP of 5.3 (1.8) when present at the same time among pigs exhibiting (not exhibiting) PAR. An association of PAR with CP was found, and PAR interacted with AP serotype 7: OR=10.0 (4.3) when both factors were present among pigs exposed (non-exposed) to SI. The OR (0.97) for an increase of carcass weight by 1 kg was negligible. In pigs from specific pathogen-free (SPF) herds, seropositivity for MYC and herd size were associated with CP. Moreover, for a herd size of 1,000 pigs, CP was associated with exposure to MYC by an OR of 3.3 (decreasing to 1.9 when the herd size was increased by 1,000). Farrow-to-finish as opposed to finishing herd had an OR of CP of 3.2. In conventional herds, seropositivity for AP serotype 2 and MYC were associated with 51% and 29% of the occurrence of CP. In SPF herds, farrow-to-finish as opposed to finishing herds was associated with 47% of the occurrence of CP. Seropositivity for MYC was associated with 33% (39%) of the occurrence of CP in herds with a size > (< or =) 1,500 pigs.