Variation in estimates of heat-related mortality reduction due to tree cover in U.S. cities.

Heat-related mortality is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States. With changing climates and an aging population, effective adaptive strategies to address public health and environmental justice issues associated with extreme heat will be increasingly important. One effective adaptive strategy for reducing heat-related mortality is increasing tree cover. Designing such a strategy requires decision-support tools that provide spatial and temporal information about impacts. We apply such a tool to estimate spatially and temporally explicit reductions in temperature and mortality associated with a 10% increase in tree cover in 10 U.S. cities with varying climatic, demographic, and land cover conditions. Two heat metrics were applied to represent tree impacts on moderately and extremely hot days (relative to historical conditions). Increasing tree cover by 10% reduced estimated heat-related mortality in cities significantly, with total impacts generally greatest in the most populated cities. Mortality reductions vary widely across cities, ranging from approximately 50 fewer deaths in Salt Lake City to about 3800 fewer deaths in New York City. This variation is due to differences in demographics, land cover, and local climatic conditions. In terms of per capita estimated impacts, hotter and drier cities experience higher percentage reductions in mortality due to increased tree cover across the season. Phoenix potentially benefits the most from increased tree cover, with an estimated 22% reduction in mortality from baseline levels. In cooler cities such as Minneapolis, trees can reduce mortality significantly on days that are extremely hot relative to historical conditions and therefore help mitigate impacts during heat wave conditions. Recent studies project highest increases in heat-related mortality in the cooler cities, so our findings have important implications for adaptation planning. Our estimated spatial and temporal distributions of mortality reductions for each city provide crucial information needed for promoting environmental justice and equity. More broadly, the methods and model can be applied by both urban planners and the public health community for designing targeted, effective policies to reduce heat-related mortality. Additionally, land use managers can use this information to optimize tree plantings. Public stakeholders can also use these impact estimates for advocacy.

Interacting drivers and their tradeoffs for predicting denitrification potential across a strong urban to rural gradient within heterogeneous landscapes.

Denitrification is a significant regulator of nitrogen pollution in diverse landscapes but is difficult to quantify. We examined relationships between denitrification potential and soil and landscape properties to develop a model that predicts denitrification potential at a landscape level. Denitrification potential, ancillary soil variables, and physical landscape attributes were measured at study sites within urban, suburban, and forested environments in the Gwynns Falls watershed in Baltimore, Maryland in a series of studies between 1998 and 2014. Data from these studies were used to develop a statistical model for denitrification potential using a subset of the samples (N = 188). The remaining measurements (N = 150) were used to validate the model. Soil moisture, soil respiration, and total soil nitrogen were the best predictors of denitrification potential (R2adj = 0.35), and the model was validated by regressing observed vs. predicted values. Our results suggest that soil denitrification potential can be modeled successfully using these three parameters, and that this model performs well across a variety of natural and developed land uses. This model provides a framework for predicting nitrogen dynamics in varying land use contexts. We also outline approaches to develop appropriate landscape-scale proxies for the key model inputs, including soil moisture, respiration, and soil nitrogen.

i-Tree cool river: An open source, freeware tool to simulate river water temperature coupled with HEC-RAS.

This method paper explains the i-Tree Cool River model algorithms for simulating the response of river water temperature to urban greening. The model captures the warming and cooling impacts of urban development and restoration through a water and energy budget. The water budget includes river inflows from urban storm sewers and reservoirs, and the associated water temperatures. The energy budget adjusts radiation fluxes due to riparian shading and evapotranspiration, and propagates temperature downstream. Restorative cooling of the river can be simulated through algorithms for cool groundwater, either as direct inflows or by river water replacement called hyporheic exchange. Novel features in the model include diurnal variation in riparian shading, use of the Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS model predicted river depths and velocities, and periodic boundary conditions to rapidly extend restoration scenarios.•Freely available code in C++ for Visual Studio, with a detailed manual and sample inputs and outputs at http://www.itreetools.org/research_suite/coolriver.•Useful for simulating river warming or cooling due to urban development or greening.•Well documented source code compatible with requirements of other modeling groups.

A model to integrate urban river thermal cooling in river restoration.

River water quality and habitats are degraded by thermal pollution from urban areas caused by warm surface runoff, lack of riparian forests, and impervious channels that transfer heat and block cool subsurface flows. This study updates the i-Tree Cool River model to simulate restoration of these processes to reverse the urban river syndrome, while using the HEC-RAS model water surface profiles needed for flood hazard analysis in restoration planning. The new model was tested in a mountain river within the New York City drinking water supply area (Sawmill, SM, Creek), and then used for base case and restoration scenarios on the 17.5 km reach of the Los Angeles (LA) River where a multi-million dollar riverine restoration project is planned. The model simulated the LA River average temperature in the base case decreased from 29.5 °C by 0.3 °C when warm surface inflows were converted to cooler groundwater inflows by terrestrial green infrastructure; by 0.7 °C when subsurface hyporheic exchange was increased by removal of armoring and installation of riffle-pool bedforms; by 3.6 °C when riparian forests shaded the river; and by 6.4 °C when floodplain forests were added to riparian forests to cool surface reservoirs and local air temperatures. Applying all four restoration treatments lowered river temperature by 7.2 °C. The simulated decreases in river temperature lead to increased saturated dissolved oxygen levels, reaching 8.7 mg/L, up from the 7.6 mg/L in the base case scenario, providing improved fish habitat and reducing eutrophication and hypoxic zones. This study evaluating the performance of environmental management scenarios could help managers control the thermal pollution in rivers.

Strategically growing the urban forest will improve our world.

Growth in urban populations creates opportunities for urban forests to deliver ecosystem services critical to human wellbeing and biodiversity. Our challenge is to strategically expand urban forests and provide our international communities, particularly the vulnerable, with healthier, happier, and enriched lives.

A Comparison of Hyporheic Transport at a Cross-Vane Structure and Natural Riffle.

While restoring hyporheic flowpaths has been cited as a benefit to stream restoration structures, little documentation exists confirming that constructed restoration structures induce comparable hyporheic exchange to natural stream features. This study compares a stream restoration structure (cross-vane) to a natural feature (riffle) concurrently in the same stream reach using time-lapsed electrical resistivity (ER) tomography. Using this hydrogeophysical approach, we were able to quantify hyporheic extent and transport beneath the cross-vane structure and the riffle. We interpret from the geophysical data that the cross-vane and the natural riffle induced spatially and temporally unique hyporheic extent and transport, and the cross-vane created both spatially larger and temporally longer hyporheic flowpaths than the natural riffle. Tracer from the 4.67-h injection was detected along flowpaths for 4.6 h at the cross-vane and 4.2 h at the riffle. The spatial extent of the hyporheic zone at the cross-vane was 12% larger than that at the riffle. We compare ER results of this study to vertical fluxes calculated from temperature profiles and conclude significant differences in the interpretation of hyporheic transport from these different field techniques. Results of this study demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in transport metrics at both the cross-vane and the riffle and differences between the hyporheic flowpath networks at the two different features. Our results suggest that restoration structures may be capable of creating sufficient exchange flux and timescales of transport to achieve the same ecological functions as natural features, but engineering of the physical and biogeochemical environment may be necessary to realize these benefits.

Bioretention column study of bacteria community response to salt-enriched artificial stormwater.

Cold climate cities with green infrastructure depend on soil bacteria to remove nutrients from road salt-enriched stormwater. Our research examined how bacterial communities in laboratory columns containing bioretention media responded to varying concentrations of salt exposure from artificial stormwater and the effect of bacteria and salt on column effluent concentrations. We used a factorial design with two bacteria treatments (sterile, nonsterile) and three salt concentrations (935, 315, and 80 ppm), including a deionized water control. Columns were repeatedly saturated with stormwater or deionized and then drained throughout 5 wk, with the last week of effluent analyzed for water chemistry. To examine bacterial communities, we extracted DNA from column bioretention media at time 0 and at week 5 and used molecular profiling techniques to examine bacterial community changes. We found that bacterial community taxa changed between time 0 and week 5 and that there was significant separation between taxa among salt treatments. Bacteria evenness was significantly affected by stormwater treatment, but there were no differences in bacterial richness or diversity. Soil bacteria and salt treatments had a significant effect on the effluent concentration of NO, PO, Cu, Pb, and Zn based on ANOVA tests. The presence of bacteria reduced effluent NO and Zn concentrations by as much as 150 and 25%, respectively, while having a mixed effect on effluent PO concentrations. Our results demonstrate how stormwater can affect bacterial communities and how the presence of soil bacteria improves pollutant removal by green infrastructure.

Scientist and policy-maker response types and times in suburban watersheds.

Differences between scientist and policy-maker response types and times, or the "how" and "when" of action, constrain effective water resource management in suburbanizing watersheds. Policy-makers are often rushed to find a single policy that can be applied across an entire, homogeneous, geopolitical region, whereas scientists undertake multiyear research projects to appreciate the complex interactions occurring within heterogeneous catchments. As a result, watershed management is often practiced with science and policy out of synch. Meanwhile, development pressures in suburban watersheds create changes in the social and physical fabric and pose a moving target for science and policy. Recent and anticipated advances in the scientific understanding of urbanized catchment hydrology and pollutant transport suggest that management should become increasingly sensitive to spatial heterogeneities in watershed features, such as soil types, terrain slopes, and seasonal watertable profiles. Toward this end, policy-makers should encourage funding scientific research that characterizes the impacts of these watershed heterogeneities within a geopolitical zoning and development framework.