Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.

Methodology for national risk analysis and prioritization of toxic industrial chemicals.

The identification of chemicals that pose the greatest threat to human health from incidental releases is a cornerstone in public health preparedness for chemical threats. The present study developed and applied a methodology for the risk analysis and prioritization of industrial chemicals to identify the most significant chemicals that pose a threat to public health in Finland. The prioritization criteria included acute and chronic health hazards, physicochemical and environmental hazards, national production and use quantities, the physicochemical properties of the substances, and the history of substance-related incidents. The presented methodology enabled a systematic review and prioritization of industrial chemicals for the purpose of national public health preparedness for chemical incidents.

Exposure to airborne isocyanates and other thermal degradation products at polyurethane-processing workplaces.

The thermal degradation products of polyurethanes (PURs) and exposure to isocyanates were studied by stationary and personal measurements in five different occupational environments. Isocyanates were collected on glass fibre filters impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine (2MP) and in impingers containing n-dibutylamine (DBA) in toluene. connected to a glass fibre postfilter. The derivatives formed were analysed by liquid chromatography: 2MP derivatives with UV and electrochemical detection and DBA derivatives with mass spectrometric detection. The release of aldehydes and other volatile organic compounds into the air was also studied. In a comparison of the two sampling methods, the 2MP method yielded about 20% lower concentrations for 4,4'-methylenediphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) than did the DBA method. In car repair shops, the median concentration of diisocyanates (given as NCO groups) in the breathing zone was 1.1 microg NCO m(-3) during grinding and 0.3 microg NCO m(-3) during welding, with highest concentrations of 1.7 and 16 pg NCO m(-3), respectively. High concentrations of MDI, up to 25 and 19 microg NCO m(-3), respectively, were also measured in the breathing zone during welding of district heating pipes and turning of a PUR-coated metal cylinder. During installation of PUR-coated floor covering, small amounts of aliphatic diisocyanates were detected in the air. A small-molecular monoisocyanate, methyl isocyanate, and isocyanic acid were detected only during welding and turning operations. The diisocyanate concentrations were in general higher near the emission source than in the workers' breathing zone. A sampling strategy to evaluate the risk of exposure to isocyanates is presented.