ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: The Xpert® MTB/RIF assay is being implemented as a substitute for sputum smear microscopy (SSM) in many low and high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries, including Brazil, a country with low multidrug resistance and moderate human immunodeficiency virus co-infection rates. SETTING: Brazilian National TB Programme (NTP). OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of Xpert as a substitute for two SSM tests in the diagnosis of drug-susceptible TB. The costs for confirming each additional case and for avoiding treatment due to false-positive empirical diagnoses were estimated. RESULTS: The ICER was US$943 for each additional TB diagnosis and US$356 for each additional TB diagnosis with bacteriological confirmation, assuming 80% specificity of clinical diagnosis using both strategies. For every 100 000 patients with suspected TB, the NTP would spend an additional US$1.2 million per year to confirm 3344 more TB patients. The model was highly sensitive to specificity of clinical diagnosis after a negative test. CONCLUSION: Although the NTP has no threshold for cost-effectiveness, our model can provide support for decision makers in Brazil and other countries with a low prevalence of drug resistance among TB patients. Financial benefit can potentially be expected if physicians rely more on a negative Xpert result and empirical treatment is reduced.
