The urban desirability paradox: U.K. urban-rural differences in well-being, social satisfaction, and economic satisfaction.

As the majority of the global population resides in cities, it is imperative to understand urban well-being. While cities offer concentrated social and economic opportunities, the question arises whether these benefits translate to equitable levels of satisfaction in these domains. Using a robust and objective measure of urbanicity on a sample of 156,000 U.K. residents aged 40 and up, we find that urban living is associated with lower scores across seven dimensions of well-being, social satisfaction, and economic satisfaction. In addition, these scores exhibit greater variability within urban areas, revealing increased inequality. Last, we identify optimal distances in the hinterlands of cities with the highest satisfaction and the least variation. Our findings raise concern for the psychological well-being of urban residents and show the importance of nonlinear methods in urban research.

Polygenic Scores and Networks of Psychopathology Symptoms.

Importance: Studies on polygenic risk for psychiatric traits commonly use a disorder-level approach to phenotyping, implicitly considering disorders as homogeneous constructs; however, symptom heterogeneity is ubiquitous, with many possible combinations of symptoms falling under the same disorder umbrella. Focusing on individual symptoms may shed light on the role of polygenic risk in psychopathology. Objective: To determine whether polygenic scores are associated with all symptoms of psychiatric disorders or with a subset of indicators and whether polygenic scores are associated with comorbid phenotypes via specific sets of relevant symptoms. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data from 2 population-based cohort studies were used in this cross-sectional study. Data from children in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were included in the primary analysis, and data from children in the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS) were included in confirmatory analyses. Data analysis was conducted from October 2021 to January 2024. Pregnant women based in the Southwest of England due to deliver in 1991 to 1992 were recruited in ALSPAC. Twins born in 1994 to 1996 were recruited in TEDS from population-based records. Participants with available genetic data and whose mothers completed the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire and the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire when children were 11 years of age were included. Main Outcomes and Measures: Psychopathology relevant symptoms, such as hyperactivity, prosociality, depression, anxiety, and peer and conduct problems at age 11 years. Psychological networks were constructed including individual symptoms and polygenic scores for depression, anxiety, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), body mass index (BMI), and educational attainment in ALSPAC. Following a preregistered confirmatory analysis, network models were cross-validated in TEDS. Results: Included were 5521 participants from ALSPAC (mean [SD] age, 11.8 [0.14] years; 2777 [50.3%] female) and 4625 participants from TEDS (mean [SD] age, 11.27 [0.69] years; 2460 [53.2%] female). Polygenic scores were preferentially associated with restricted subsets of core symptoms and indirectly associated with other, more distal symptoms of psychopathology (network edges ranged between r = -0.074 and r = 0.073). Psychiatric polygenic scores were associated with specific cross-disorder symptoms, and nonpsychiatric polygenic scores were associated with a variety of indicators across disorders, suggesting a potential contribution of nonpsychiatric traits to comorbidity. For example, the polygenic score for ADHD was associated with a core ADHD symptom, being easily distracted (r = 0.07), and the polygenic score for BMI was associated with symptoms across disorders, including being bullied (r = 0.053) and not thinking things out (r = 0.041). Conclusions and Relevance: Genetic associations observed at the disorder level may hide symptom-level heterogeneity. A symptom-level approach may enable a better understanding of the role of polygenic risk in shaping psychopathology and comorbidity.

Testing similarity in longitudinal networks: The Individual Network Invariance Test.

The comparison of idiographic network structures to determine the presence of heterogeneity is a challenging endeavor in many applied settings. Previously, researchers eyeballed idiographic networks, computed correlations, and used techniques that make use of the multilevel structure of the data (e.g., group iterative multiple model estimation and multilevel vector autoregressive) to investigate individual differences. However, these methods do not allow for testing the (in)equality of idiographic network structures directly. In this article, we propose the Individual Network Invariance Test (INIT), which we implemented in the R package INIT. INIT extends common model comparison practices in structural equation modeling to idiographic network structures to test for (in)equality between idiographic networks. In a simulation study, we evaluated the performance of INIT on both saturated and pruned idiographic network structures by inspecting the rejection rate of the χ² difference test and model selection criteria, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Results show INIT performs adequately when t = 100 per individual. When applying INIT on saturated networks, the AIC performed best as a model selection criterion, while the BIC showed better results when applying INIT on pruned networks. In an empirical example, we highlight the possibilities of this new technique, illustrating how INIT provides researchers with a means of testing for (in)equality between idiographic network structures and within idiographic network structures over time. To conclude, recommendations for empirical researchers are provided. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Towards precision in the diagnostic profiling of patients: leveraging symptom dynamics as a clinical characterisation dimension in the assessment of major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: International guidelines present overall symptom severity as the key dimension for clinical characterisation of major depressive disorder (MDD). However, differences may reside within severity levels related to how symptoms interact in an individual patient, called symptom dynamics. AIMS: To investigate these individual differences by estimating the proportion of patients that display differences in their symptom dynamics while sharing the same overall symptom severity. METHOD: Participants with MDD (n = 73; mean age 34.6 years, s.d. = 13.1; 56.2% female) rated their baseline symptom severity using the Inventory for Depressive Symptomatology Self-Report (IDS-SR). Momentary indicators for depressive symptoms were then collected through ecological momentary assessments five times per day for 28 days; 8395 observations were conducted (average per person: 115; s.d. = 16.8). Each participant's symptom dynamics were estimated using person-specific dynamic network models. Individual differences in these symptom relationship patterns in groups of participants sharing the same symptom severity levels were estimated using individual network invariance tests. Subsequently, the overall proportion of participants that displayed differential symptom dynamics while sharing the same symptom severity was calculated. A supplementary simulation study was conducted to investigate the accuracy of our methodology against false-positive results. RESULTS: Differential symptom dynamics were identified across 63.0% (95% bootstrapped CI 41.0-82.1) of participants within the same severity group. The average false detection of individual differences was 2.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of participants within the same depressive symptom severity group displayed differential symptom dynamics. Examining symptom dynamics provides information about person-specific psychopathological expression beyond severity levels by revealing how symptoms aggravate each other over time. These results suggest that symptom dynamics may be a promising new dimension for clinical characterisation, warranting replication in independent samples. To inform personalised treatment planning, a next step concerns linking different symptom relationship patterns to treatment response and clinical course, including patterns related to spontaneous recovery and forms of disorder progression.

A Network Study of Family Affect Systems in Daily Life.

Adolescence is a time period characterized by extremes in affect and increasing prevalence of mental health problems. Prior studies have illustrated how affect states of adolescents are related to interactions with parents. However, it remains unclear how affect states among family triads, that is adolescents and their parents, are related in daily life. This study investigated affect state dynamics (happy, sad, relaxed, and irritated) of 60 family triads, including 60 adolescents (Mage = 15.92, 63.3% females), fathers and mothers (Mage = 49.16). The families participated in the RE-PAIR study, where they reported their affect states in four ecological momentary assessments per day for 14 days. First, we used multilevel vector-autoregressive network models to estimate affect dynamics across all families, and for each family individually. Resulting models elucidated how family affect states were related at the same moment, and over time. We identified relations from parents to adolescents and vice versa, while considering family variation in these relations. Second, we evaluated the statistical performance of the network model via a simulation study, varying the percentage missing data, the number of families, and the number of time points. We conclude with substantive and statistical recommendations for future research on family affect dynamics.

Alcohol consumption as a socially contagious phenomenon in the Framingham Heart Study social network.

We use longitudinal social network data from the Framingham Heart Study to examine the extent to which alcohol consumption is influenced by the network structure. We assess the spread of alcohol use in a three-state SIS-type model, classifying individuals as abstainers, moderate drinkers, and heavy drinkers. We find that the use of three-states improves on the more canonical two-state classification, as the data show that all three states are highly stable and have different social dynamics. We show that when modelling the spread of alcohol use, it is important to model the topology of social interactions by incorporating the network structure. The population is not homogeneously mixed, and clustering is high with abstainers and heavy drinkers. We find that both abstainers and heavy drinkers have a strong influence on their social environment; for every heavy drinker and abstainer connection, the probability of a moderate drinker adopting their drinking behaviour increases by [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively. We also find that abstinent connections have a significant positive effect on heavy drinkers quitting drinking. Using simulations, we find that while both are effective, increasing the influence of abstainers appears to be the more effective intervention compared to reducing the influence of heavy drinkers.

Subgrouping with Chain Graphical VAR Models.

Recent years have seen the emergence of an "idio-thetic" class of methods to bridge the gap between nomothetic and idiographic inference. These methods describe nomothetic trends in idiographic processes by pooling intraindividual information across individuals to inform group-level inference or vice versa. The current work introduces a novel "idio-thetic" model: the subgrouped chain graphical vector autoregression (scGVAR). The scGVAR is unique in its ability to identify subgroups of individuals who share common dynamic network structures in both lag(1) and contemporaneous effects. Results from Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the scGVAR shows promise over similar approaches when clusters of individuals differ in their contemporaneous dynamics and in showing increased sensitivity in detecting nuanced group differences while keeping Type-I error rates low. In contrast, a competing approach-the Alternating Least Squares VAR (ALS VAR) performs well when groups were separated by larger distances. Further considerations are provided regarding applications of the ALS VAR and scGVAR on real data and the strengths and limitations of both methods.

Use of substances to cope predicts posttraumatic stress disorder symptom persistence: Investigating patterns of interactions between symptoms and its maintaining mechanisms.

OBJECTIVE: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) remains a growing public health challenge across the globe and is associated with negative and persistent long-term consequences. The last decades of research have identified different mechanisms associated with the development and persistence of PTSD, including maladaptive coping strategies, cognitive and experiential avoidance, and positive and negative metacognitions. Despite these advances, little is known about how these different processes interact with specific PTSD symptoms, and how they influence each other over time at the within-person level. METHOD: Leveraging a large (N > 1,800) longitudinal data set representative of the Norwegian population during the COVID-19 pandemic, this preregistered study investigated these symptom-process interactions over four assessment waves spanning an 8-month period. RESULTS: Our panel graphical vector autoregressive network model revealed the dominating role of substance use to cope in predicting higher levels of PTSD symptoms over time and increases in PTSD symptomatology within more proximal time windows (i.e., within 6 weeks). Threat monitoring was associated with increased suicidal ideation, while threat monitoring itself was increasing upon decreased avoidance behavior, greater presence of negative metacognitions, and higher use of substances to cope. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings speak to the importance of attending to different coping strategies, particularly the use of substances as a coping behavior in efforts to prevent PTSD chronicity upon symptom onset. We outline future directions for research efforts to better understand the complex interactions and temporal pathways leading up to the development and maintenance of PTSD symptomatology. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Which estimation method to choose in network psychometrics? Deriving guidelines for applied researchers.

The Gaussian graphical model (GGM) has recently grown popular in psychological research, with a large body of estimation methods being proposed and discussed across various fields of study, and several algorithms being identified and recommend as applicable to psychological data sets. Such high-dimensional model estimation, however, is not trivial, and algorithms tend to perform differently in different settings. In addition, psychological research poses unique challenges, including placing a strong focus on weak edges (e.g., bridge edges), handling data measured on ordered scales, and relatively limited sample sizes. As a result, there is currently no consensus regarding which estimation procedure performs best in which setting. In this large-scale simulation study, we aimed to overcome this gap in the literature by comparing the performance of several estimation algorithms suitable for Gaussian and skewed ordered categorical data across a multitude of settings, as to arrive at concrete guidelines from applied researchers. In total, we investigated 60 different metrics across 564,000 simulated data sets. We summarized our findings through a platform that allows for manually exploring simulation results. Overall, we found that an exchange between discovery (e.g., sensitivity, edge weight correlation) and caution (e.g., specificity, precision) should always be expected, and achieving both-which is a requirement for perfect replicability-is difficult. Further, we identified that the estimation method is best chosen in light of each research question and have highlighted, alongside desirable asymptotic properties and low sample size discovery, results according to most common research questions in the field. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Investigating the feasibility of idiographic network models.

Recent times have seen a call for personalized psychotherapy and tailored communication during treatment, leading to the necessity to model the complex dynamics of mental disorders in a single subject. To this aim, time-series data in one patient can be collected through ecological momentary assessment and analyzed with the graphical vector autoregressive model, estimating temporal and contemporaneous idiographic networks. Idiographic networks graph interindividual processes that may be potentially used to tailor psychotherapy and provide personalized feedback to clients and are regarded as a promising tool for clinical practice. However, the question whether we can reliably estimate them in clinical settings remains unanswered. We conducted a large-scale simulation study in the context of psychopathology, testing the performance of personalized networks with different numbers of time points, percentages of missing data, and estimation methods. Results indicate that sensitivity is low with sample sizes feasible for clinical practice (75 and 100 time points). It seems possible to retrieve the global network structure but not to recover the full network. Estimating temporal networks appears particularly challenging; thus, with 75 and 100 observations, it is advisable to reduce the number of nodes to around six variables. With regard to missing data, full information maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter are effective in addressing random item-level missing data; consequently, planned missingness is a valid method to deal with missing data. We discuss possible methodological and clinical solutions to the challenges raised in this work. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Reporting standards for psychological network analyses in cross-sectional data.

Statistical network models describing multivariate dependency structures in psychological data have gained increasing popularity. Such comparably novel statistical techniques require specific guidelines to make them accessible to the research community. So far, researchers have provided tutorials guiding the estimation of networks and their accuracy. However, there is currently little guidance in determining what parts of the analyses and results should be documented in a scientific report. A lack of such reporting standards may foster researcher degrees of freedom and could provide fertile ground for questionable reporting practices. Here, we introduce reporting standards for network analyses in cross-sectional data, along with a tutorial and two examples. The presented guidelines are aimed at researchers as well as the broader scientific community, such as reviewers and journal editors evaluating scientific work. We conclude by discussing how the network literature specifically can benefit from such guidelines for reporting and transparency. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian Uncertainty Estimation for Gaussian Graphical Models and Centrality Indices.

In the network approach to psychopathology, psychological constructs are conceptualized as networks of interacting components (e.g., the symptoms of a disorder). In this network view, interest is on the degree to which symptoms influence each other, both directly and indirectly. These direct and indirect influences are often captured with centrality indices, however, the estimation method often used with these networks, the frequentist graphical LASSO (GLASSO), has difficulty estimating (uncertainty in) these measures. Bayesian estimation might provide a solution, as it is better suited to deal with bias in the sampling distribution of centrality indices. This study therefore compares estimation of symptom networks with Bayesian GLASSO- and Horseshoe priors to estimation using the frequentist GLASSO using extensive simulations. Results showed that the Bayesian GLASSO performed better than the Horseshoe, and that the Bayesian GLASSO outperformed the frequentist GLASSO with respect to bias in edge weights, centrality measures, correlation between estimated and true partial correlations, and specificity. Sensitivity was better for the frequentist GLASSO, but performance of the Bayesian GLASSO is usually close. With respect to uncertainty in the centrality measures, the Bayesian GLASSO shows good coverage for strength and closeness centrality, but uncertainty in betweenness centrality is estimated less well.

Heterogeneity in Individual Network Analysis: Reality or Illusion?

The use of idiographic research techniques has gained popularity within psychological research and network analysis in particular. Idiographic research has been proposed as a promising avenue for future research, with differences between idiographic results highlighting evidence for radical heterogeneity. However, in the quest to address the individual in psychology, some classic statistical problems, such as those arising from sampling variation and power limitations, should not be overlooked. This article aims to determine to what extent current tools to compare idiographic networks are suited to disentangle true from illusory heterogeneity in the presence of sampling error. To this end, we investigate the performance of tools to inspect heterogeneity (visual inspection, comparison of centrality measures, investigating standard deviations of random effects, and GIMME) through simulations. Results show that power limitations hamper the validity of conclusions regarding heterogeneity and that the power required to assess heterogeneity adequately is often not realized in current research practice. Of the tools investigated, inspecting standard deviations of random effects and GIMME proved the most suited. However, all tools evaluated leave the door wide open to misinterpret all observed variability in terms of individual differences. Hence, the current paper calls for caution in the use and interpretation of new time-series techniques when it comes to heterogeneity.

A clinical PREMISE for personalized models: Toward a formal integration of case formulations and statistical networks.

Over the past decade, the idiographic approach has received significant attention in clinical psychology, incentivizing the development of novel approaches to estimate statistical models, such as personalized networks. Although the notion of such networks aligns well with the way clinicians think and reason, there are currently several barriers to implementation that limit their clinical utility. To address these issues, we introduce the Prior Elicitation Module for Idiographic System Estimation (PREMISE), a novel approach that formally integrates case formulations with personalized network estimation via prior elicitation and Bayesian inference. PREMISE tackles current implementation barriers of personalized networks; incorporating clinical information into personalized network estimation systematically allows theoretical and data-driven integration, supporting clinician and patient collaboration when building a dynamic understanding of the patient's psychopathology. To illustrate its potential, we estimate clinically informed networks for a patient suffering from obsessive-compulsive disorder. We discuss open challenges in selecting statistical models for PREMISE, as well as specific future directions for clinical implementation. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Quantifying and addressing the impact of measurement error in network models.

Network psychometric models are often estimated using a single indicator for each node in the network, thus failing to consider potential measurement error. In this study, we investigate the impact of measurement error on cross-sectional network models. First, we conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of models based on single indicators as well as models that utilize information from multiple indicators per node, including average scores, factor scores, and latent variables. Our results demonstrate that measurement error impairs the reliability and performance of network models, especially when using single indicators. The reliability and performance of network models improves substantially with increasing sample size and when using methods that combine information from multiple indicators per node. Second, we use empirical data from the STAR*D trial (n = 3,731) to further evaluate the impact of measurement error. In the STAR*D trial, depression symptoms were assessed via three questionnaires, providing multiple indicators per symptom. Consistent with our simulation results, we find that when using sub-samples of this dataset, the discrepancy between the three single-indicator networks (one network per questionnaire) diminishes with increasing sample size. Together, our simulated and empirical findings provide evidence that measurement error can hinder network estimation when working with smaller samples and offers guidance on methods to mitigate measurement error.

Refining the causal loop diagram: A tutorial for maximizing the contribution of domain expertise in computational system dynamics modeling.

Complexity science and systems thinking are increasingly recognized as relevant paradigms for studying systems where biology, psychology, and socioenvironmental factors interact. The application of systems thinking, however, often stops at developing a conceptual model that visualizes the mapping of causal links within a system, e.g., a causal loop diagram (CLD). While this is an important contribution in itself, it is imperative to subsequently formulate a computable version of a CLD in order to interpret the dynamics of the modeled system and simulate "what if" scenarios. We propose to realize this by deriving knowledge from experts' mental models in biopsychosocial domains. This article first describes the steps required for capturing expert knowledge in a CLD such that it may result in a computational system dynamics model (SDM). For this purpose, we introduce several annotations to the CLD that facilitate this intended conversion. This annotated CLD (aCLD) includes sources of evidence, intermediary variables, functional forms of causal links, and the distinction between uncertain and known-to-be-absent causal links. We propose an algorithm for developing an aCLD that includes these annotations. We then describe how to formulate an SDM based on the aCLD. The described steps for this conversion help identify, quantify, and potentially reduce sources of uncertainty and obtain confidence in the results of the SDM's simulations. We utilize a running example that illustrates each step of this conversion process. The systematic approach described in this article facilitates and advances the application of computational science methods to biopsychosocial systems. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Intermediate stable states in substance use.

Many people across the world use potentially addictive legal and illegal substances, but evidence suggests that not all use leads to heavy use and dependence, as some substances are used moderately for long periods of time. Here, we empirically examine, the stability of and transitions between three substance use states: zero-use, moderate use, and heavy use. We investigate two large datasets from the US and the Netherlands on yearly usage and change of alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis. Results, which we make available through an extensive interactive tool, suggests that there are stable moderate use states, even after meeting criteria for a positive diagnosis of substance abuse or dependency, for both alcohol and cannabis use. Moderate use of tobacco, however, was rare. We discuss implications of recognizing three states rather than two states as a modeling target, in which the moderate use state can both act as an intervention target or as a gateway between zero use and heavy use.

Psychopathological networks: Theory, methods and practice.

In recent years, network approaches to psychopathology have sparked much debate and have had a significant impact on how mental disorders are perceived in the field of clinical psychology. However, there are many important challenges in moving from theory to empirical research and clinical practice and vice versa. Therefore, in this article, we bring together different points of view on psychological networks by methodologists and clinicians to give a critical overview on these challenges, and to present an agenda for addressing these challenges. In contrast to previous reviews, we especially focus on methodological issues related to temporal networks. This includes topics such as selecting and assessing the quality of the nodes in the network, distinguishing between- and within-person effects in networks, relating items that are measured at different time scales, and dealing with changes in network structures. These issues are not only important for researchers using network models on empirical data, but also for clinicians, who are increasingly likely to encounter (person-specific) networks in the consulting room.