Lessons learnt from 288 COVID-19 international cases: importations over time, effect of interventions, underdetection of imported cases

288 cases have been confirmed out of China from January 3 to February 13, 2020. We collected and synthesized all available information on these cases from official sources and media. We analyzed importations that were successfully isolated and those leading to onward transmission. We modeled their number over time, in relation to the origin of travel (Hubei province, other Chinese provinces, other countries) and interventions. We characterized importations timeline to assess the rapidity of isolation, and epidemiologically linked clusters to estimate the rate of detection. We found a rapid exponential growth of importations from Hubei, combined with a slower growth from the other areas. We predicted a rebound of importations from South East Asia in the upcoming weeks. Time from travel to detection has considerably decreased since the first importation, however 6 cases out of 10 were estimated to go undetected. Countries outside China should be prepared for the possible emergence of several undetected clusters of chains of local transmissions.

Study of Spectral Modifications in Acidified Ignitable Liquids by Attenuated Total Reflection Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy.

In this work, the spectral characteristics of two types of acidified gasoline and acidified diesel fuel are discussed. Neat and acidified ignitable liquids (ILs) infrared absorption spectra obtained by attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy were compared in order to identify the modifications produced by the reaction of the ILs with sulfuric acid. Several bands crucial for gasoline identification were modified, and new bands appeared over the reaction time. In the case of acidified diesel fuel, no significant modifications were observed. Additionally, the neat and acidified ILs spectra were used to perform a principal components analysis in order to confirm objectively the results. The complete discrimination among samples was successfully achieved, including the complete differentiation among gasoline types. Taking into account the results obtained in this work, it is possible to propose spectral fingerprints for the identification of non-burned acidified ILs in forensic investigations related with arson or the use of improvised incendiary devices (IIDs).