Deciphering local and regional hydroclimate resolves contradicting evidence on the Asian monsoon evolution.

The winter and summer monsoons in Southeast Asia are important but highly variable sources of rainfall. Current understanding of the winter monsoon is limited by conflicting proxy observations, resulting from the decoupling of regional atmospheric circulation patterns and local rainfall dynamics. These signals are difficult to decipher in paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we present a winter monsoon speleothem record from Southeast Asia covering the Holocene and find that winter and summer rainfall changed synchronously, forced by changes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In contrast, regional atmospheric circulation shows an inverse relation between winter and summer controlled by seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere. We show that disentangling the local and regional signal in paleoclimate reconstructions is crucial in understanding and projecting winter and summer monsoon variability in Southeast Asia.

Glacial changes in sea level modulated millennial-scale variability of Southeast Asian autumn monsoon rainfall.

Most paleoclimate studies of Mainland Southeast Asia hydroclimate focus on the summer monsoon, with few studies investigating rainfall in other seasons. Here, we present a multiproxy stalagmite record (45,000 to 4,000 years) from central Vietnam, a region that receives most of its annual rainfall in autumn (September-November). We find evidence of a prolonged dry period spanning the last glacial maximum that is punctuated by an abrupt shift to wetter conditions during the deglaciation at ~14 ka. Paired with climate model simulations, we show that sea-level change drives autumn monsoon rainfall variability on glacial-orbital timescales. Consistent with the dry signal in the stalagmite record, climate model simulations reveal that lower glacial sea level exposes land in the Gulf of Tonkin and along the South China Shelf, reducing convection and moisture delivery to central Vietnam. When sea level rises and these landmasses flood at ~14 ka, moisture delivery to central Vietnam increases, causing an abrupt shift from dry to wet conditions. On millennial timescales, we find signatures of well-known Heinrich Stadials (HS) (dry conditions) and Dansgaard-Oeschger Events (wet conditions). Model simulations show that during the dry HS, changes in sea surface temperature related to meltwater forcing cause the formation of an anomalous anticyclone in the Western Pacific, which advects dry air across central Vietnam, decreasing autumn rainfall. Notably, sea level modulates the magnitude of millennial-scale dry and wet phases by muting dry events and enhancing wet events during periods of low sea level, highlighting the importance of this mechanism to autumn monsoon variability.

Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope abundance of major bottled water brands sold in the United Kingdom.

Bottled water in the UK has a ∼20 % share of the soft drinks market with a sales value of >£1.5 billion. Bottled water is susceptible to fraud and it is important to characterise the chemical signature of aquifers used by the bottled water industry. Measuring 18O/16O and 2H/1H ratios in bottled water is one important step in fraud prevention and aquifer characterisation as these ratios in groundwater tend to be stable or change very slowly through time. Here we characterise the isotopic signature of 30 brands of bottled water sold in the UK. The average δ18O of bottled waters is -7.4 and -48.4 for δ2H. This isotopic composition is closely related to that of the annual rainfall and follows latitudinal and longitudinal gradients which combine to explain 77 % of the δ18O variance.

High variability between regional histories of long-term atmospheric Pb pollution.

The advent of metal processing was one of the key technological evolutions presaging the development of modern society. However, the interplay between metal use and the long-term changes it induced in the development and functioning of past societies remains unclear. We present a compilation of global records of anthropogenic atmospheric lead (Pb) spanning the last 4000 years, an effective indirect proxy for reliably assessing Pb emissions directly linked to human activities. Separating this global Pb pollution signal into regionally representative clusters allows identification of regional differences in pollution output that reflect technological innovations, market demands, or demise of various human cultures for last 4000 years. Our European reconstruction traces well periods of intensive metal production such as the Roman and Medieval periods, in contrast to clusters from the Americas, which show low levels of atmospheric Pb until the Industrial Revolution. Further investigation of the European synthesis results displays clear regional variation in the timing and extent of past development of polluting activities. This indicates the challenges of using individual reconstructions to infer regional or global development in Pb output and related pollution.

Rainwater isotopes in central Vietnam controlled by two oceanic moisture sources and rainout effects.

The interpretation of palaeoclimate archives based on oxygen isotopes depends critically on a detailed understanding of processes controlling the isotopic composition of precipitation. In the summer monsoonal realm, like Southeast Asia, seasonally and interannually depleted oxygen isotope ratios in precipitation have been linked to the summer monsoon strength. However, in some regions, such as central Vietnam, the majority of precipitation falls outside the summer monsoon period. We investigate processes controlling stable isotopes in precipitation from central Vietnam by combining moisture uptake calculations with monthly stable isotope data observed over five years. We find that the isotopic seasonal cycle in this region is driven by a shift in moisture source from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. This shift is reflected in oxygen isotope ratios with low values (- 8 to - 10‰) during summer and high values during spring/winter (0 to - 3‰), while 70% of the annual rainfall occurs during autumn. Interannual changes in precipitation isotopes in central Vietnam are governed by the timing of the seasonal onset and withdrawal of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which controls the amount of vapour contributed from each source.

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia.

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

Runoff events and related rainfall variability in the Southern Carpathians during the last 2000 years.

The occurrence of heavy rainfall events is expected to undergo significant changes under increasing anthropogenic forcing. South-eastern Europe is reacting rapidly to such changes, therefore understanding and forecasting of precipitation variability is vital to better comprehending environmental changes in this area. Here we present a sub-decadal reconstruction of enhanced rainfall events for the past 2000 years from the Southern Carpathians, Romania using peat geochemistry. Five clear periods of enhanced rainfall are identified at 125-250, 600-900, 1050-1300, 1400-1575 and 1725-1980 CE. Significant runoff is observed during the second half of the Medieval Warm Period, whilst the Little Ice Age was characterised by significant variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation appears to be the main control on regional precipitation, but changes in solar irradiance also seem to play a significant role, together with the Siberian High. Comparison of the data presented here with model outputs confirms the ability of models to predict general trends, and major shifts, but highlights the complexity of the region's hydrological history.

Precise timing of abrupt increase in dust activity in the Middle East coincident with 4.2 ka social change.

The extent to which climate change causes significant societal disruption remains controversial. An important example is the decline of the Akkadian Empire in northern Mesopotamia ∼4.2 ka, for which the existence of a coincident climate event is still uncertain. Here we present an Iranian stalagmite record spanning 5.2 ka to 3.7 ka, dated with 25 U/Th ages that provide an average age uncertainty of 31 y (1σ). We find two periods of increased Mg/Ca, beginning abruptly at 4.51 and 4.26 ka, and lasting 110 and 290 y, respectively. Each of these periods coincides with slower vertical stalagmite growth and a gradual increase in stable oxygen isotope ratios. The periods of high Mg/Ca are explained by periods of increased dust flux sourced from the Mesopotamia region, and the abrupt onset of this dustiness indicates threshold behavior in response to aridity. This interpretation is consistent with existing marine and terrestrial records from the broad region, which also suggest that the later, longer event beginning at 4.26 ka is of greater regional extent and/or amplitude. The chronological precision and high resolution of our record indicates that there is no significant difference, at decadal level, between the start date of the second, larger dust event and the timing of North Mesopotamia settlement abandonment, and furthermore reveals striking similarity between the total duration of the second dust event and settlement abandonment. The Iranian record demonstrates this region's threshold behavior in dust production, and its ability to maintain this climate state for multiple centuries naturally.

Impact of climate change on the transition of Neanderthals to modern humans in Europe.

Two speleothem stable isotope records from East-Central Europe demonstrate that Greenland Stadial 12 (GS12) and GS10-at 44.3-43.3 and 40.8-40.2 ka-were prominent intervals of cold and arid conditions. GS12, GS11, and GS10 are coeval with a regional pattern of culturally (near-)sterile layers within Europe's diachronous archeologic transition from Neanderthals to modern human Aurignacian. Sterile layers coeval with GS12 precede the Aurignacian throughout the middle and upper Danube region. In some records from the northern Iberian Peninsula, such layers are coeval with GS11 and separate the Châtelperronian from the Aurignacian. Sterile layers preceding the Aurignacian in the remaining Châtelperronian domain are coeval with GS10 and the previously reported 40.0- to 40.8-ka cal BP [calendar years before present (1950)] time range of Neanderthals' disappearance from most of Europe. This suggests that ecologic stress during stadial expansion of steppe landscape caused a diachronous pattern of depopulation of Neanderthals, which facilitated repopulation by modern humans who appear to have been better adapted to this environment. Consecutive depopulation-repopulation cycles during severe stadials of the middle pleniglacial may principally explain the repeated replacement of Europe's population and its genetic composition.

Exceptionally high levels of lead pollution in the Balkans from the Early Bronze Age to the Industrial Revolution.

The Balkans are considered the birthplace of mineral resource exploitation and metalworking in Europe. However, since knowledge of the timing and extent of metallurgy in southeastern Europe is largely constrained by discontinuous archaeological findings, the long-term environmental impact of past mineral resource exploitation is not fully understood. Here, we present a high-resolution and continuous geochemical record from a peat bog in western Serbia, providing a clear indication of the extent and magnitude of environmental pollution in this region, and a context in which to place archaeological findings. We observe initial evidence of anthropogenic lead (Pb) pollution during the earliest part of the Bronze Age [∼3,600 years before Common Era (BCE)], the earliest such evidence documented in European environmental records. A steady, almost linear increase in Pb concentration after 600 BCE, until ∼1,600 CE is observed, documenting the development in both sophistication and extent of southeastern European metallurgical activity throughout Antiquity and the medieval period. This provides an alternative view on the history of mineral exploitation in Europe, with metal-related pollution not ceasing at the fall of the western Roman Empire, as was the case in western Europe. Further comparison with other Pb pollution records indicates the amount of Pb deposited in the Balkans during the medieval period was, if not greater, at least similar to records located close to western European mining regions, suggestive of the key role the Balkans have played in mineral resource exploitation in Europe over the last 5,600 years.

Quantitative assessment of Pb sources in isotopic mixtures using a Bayesian mixing model.

Lead (Pb) isotopes provide valuable insights into the origin of Pb within a sample, typically allowing for reliable fingerprinting of their source. This is useful for a variety of applications, from tracing sources of pollution-related Pb, to the origins of Pb in archaeological artefacts. However, current approaches investigate source proportions via graphical means, or simple mixing models. As such, an approach, which quantitatively assesses source proportions and fingerprints the signature of analysed Pb, especially for larger numbers of sources, would be valuable. Here we use an advanced Bayesian isotope mixing model for three such applications: tracing dust sources in pre-anthropogenic environmental samples, tracking changing ore exploitation during the Roman period, and identifying the source of Pb in a Roman-age mining artefact. These examples indicate this approach can understand changing Pb sources deposited during both pre-anthropogenic times, when natural cycling of Pb dominated, and the Roman period, one marked by significant anthropogenic pollution. Our archaeometric investigation indicates clear input of Pb from Romanian ores previously speculated, but not proven, to have been the Pb source. Our approach can be applied to a range of disciplines, providing a new method for robustly tracing sources of Pb observed within a variety of environments.

Holocene winter climate variability in mid-latitude western North America.

Water resources in western North America depend on winter precipitation, yet our knowledge of its sensitivity to climate change remains limited. Similarly, understanding the potential for future loss of winter snow pack requires a longer perspective on natural climate variability. Here we use stable isotopes from a speleothem in southwestern Oregon to reconstruct winter climate change for much of the past 13,000 years. We find that on millennial time scales there were abrupt transitions between warm-dry and cold-wet regimes. Temperature and precipitation changes on multi-decadal to century timescales are consistent with ocean-atmosphere interactions that arise from mechanisms similar to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Extreme cold-wet and warm-dry events that punctuated the Holocene appear to be sensitive to solar forcing, possibly through the influence of the equatorial Pacific on the winter storm tracks reaching the US Pacific Northwest region.