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1.
Tob Control ; 9 Suppl 3: III41-5, 2000.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10982904

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To determine baseline variables associated with low intentions of stopping smoking early in pregnancy. DESIGN: Cross sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant smokers pooled across seven Smoke-Free Families trials (n = 1314). RESULTS: 36% of pregnant smokers had low intentions of stopping smoking within the next 30 days. In contrast to pregnant smokers with higher intentions of quitting, pregnant smokers with low intentions were less confident in their ability to quit, less likely to have private health insurance, and less likely to agree that smoking harms the unborn child. They were more likely to smoke heavily, more likely to have fewer years of education, and more likely to have friends and family members who smoke. CONCLUSIONS: Three options to smoking cessation assistance are proposed for pregnant smokers with low intentions of quitting: targeting, triage, and tailoring. Further research is needed to determine which approach is most appropriate.


Subject(s)
Decision Making , Prenatal Care , Smoking Cessation , Smoking Prevention , Adult , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Surveys and Questionnaires
3.
Am J Prev Med ; 17(3): 161-8, 1999 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10987630

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The effectiveness of low-cost smoking interventions targeted to pregnant women has been demonstrated, although few gains in absolute cessation rates have been reported in the past decade. Under conditions of typical clinical practice, this study examined whether outcomes achieved with brief counseling from prenatal care providers and a self-help booklet could be improved by adding more resource-intensive cognitive-behavioral programs. DESIGN: Randomized Clinical Trial. SETTING: A large-group-model managed care organization. PARTICIPANTS: 390 English-speaking women 18 years of age or older who self-reported to be active smokers at their initial prenatal appointment. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomized to one of three groups: (1) a self-help booklet tailored to smoking patterns, stage of change, and lifestyle of pregnant smokers; (2) the booklet plus access to a computerized telephone cessation program based on interactive voice response technology; or (3) the booklet plus proactive telephone counseling from nurse educators using motivational interviewing techniques and strategies. No attempt was made to change smoking-related usual care advice from prenatal providers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Biochemically confirmed abstinence measured by level of cotinine in urine samples obtained during a routine prenatal visit at approximately the 34th week of pregnancy. RESULTS: Twenty percent of participants were confirmed as abstinent with no significant differences found between intervention groups. Multivariate baseline predictors of cessation included number of cigarettes smoked per day, confidence in ability to quit, exposure to passive smoke, and educational level. No differential intervention effects were found within strata of these predictors or by baseline stage of readiness to change. Cessation rates among heavier smokers were strikingly low in all intervention groups. CONCLUSION: Neither a computerized telephone cessation program nor systematic provision of motivational counseling improved cessation rates over a tailored self-help booklet delivered within the context of brief advice from prenatal providers. Innovative strategies need to be developed to increase the effectiveness of existing prenatal smoking interventions. Special attention should be paid to the needs of heavier smokers.


Subject(s)
Health Maintenance Organizations/organization & administration , Patient Education as Topic , Prenatal Care , Smoking Cessation , Adult , California , Counseling , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Program Evaluation , Prospective Studies
4.
Am J Manag Care ; 5(11): 1407-13, 1999 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10662414

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To measure patient satisfaction with pregnancy and newborn care. STUDY DESIGN: To develop our survey, we reviewed domains of care that had been identified by national groups working to develop measures of satisfaction with care. Within these domains of care, items pertinent to pregnancy and newborn care were written, reviewed, and pilot tested in focus groups of women who had recently delivered a baby. A 24-item survey instrument was the result of this process. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We sent our survey to 2337 female members of the Southern California Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program approximately 8 weeks after they had delivered a baby. The demographic and clinical characteristics of the respondents were compared with those of the nonrespondents. RESULTS: A total of 1017 women (44%) completed and returned the survey. Eighty-eight percent of the women who responded were very or somewhat satisfied with the care they received during their pregnancy and the newborn period. Women who responded differed from those who did not respond on infant birthweight, maternal age and education, and other variables. The results of our survey were forwarded to local quality managers and physicians. CONCLUSION: Satisfaction with care is an important measure of quality of care. Many changes in the delivery system were made in response to the information provided by survey respondents, including offering alternative appointment times and scheduling postpartum appointments before hospital discharge. Our survey instrument, which assesses satisfaction with pregnancy and newborn care, might be useful for other health maintenance organizations for identifying areas where improvement in care is needed.


Subject(s)
Health Maintenance Organizations/standards , Infant Care/standards , Patient Satisfaction/statistics & numerical data , Postnatal Care/standards , Prenatal Care/standards , Quality of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , California , Correspondence as Topic , Demography , Female , Health Care Surveys , Health Maintenance Organizations/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Quality Indicators, Health Care , Quality of Health Care/classification
5.
Am J Health Promot ; 11(5): 323-30, 1997.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10167366

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Despite high rates of spontaneous and assisted smoking cessation during pregnancy, postpartum maintenance is disappointingly low. Predictors of return to smoking remain unclear, thus limiting the development of interventions that could protect the health of women and their children. This study followed women who had participated in a prenatal smoking cessation intervention trial and successfully stopped smoking to address two aims: (1) describe the probability of relapse in confirmed quitters during the first 6 months after the birth, and (2) identify factors that increase relapse. DESIGN: Prospective design during pregnancy and retrospective report at 6 months postpartum used survival analysis with return to smoking as the dependent variable and the Cox proportional hazards regression technique. MEASURES: Questionnaires were used at the first prenatal visit and telephone interviews at the 26th week of pregnancy and 6 months postpartum. Nonsmoking after the 20th week was measured by urine cotinine tests (m = 3); nonsmoking postpartum was measured by retrospective self-report. SETTING: The setting was an HMO-based group practice in Los Angeles. SUBJECTS: Subjects were white, black, and Hispanic women (n = 127) available for follow-up. RESULTS: The proportion of the sample classified as relapsers at 6 months postpartum was 62.9%. The final model identified the following risk factors for smoking: taking puffs in late pregnancy and having friends who smoke at the first prenatal visit, less confidence in mid-pregnancy that they could maintain nonsmoking postpartum, and a partner who smokes postpartum. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention should begin in late pregnancy, and smoking networks, including partner smoking, should be addressed.


Subject(s)
Postpartum Period , Prenatal Care , Smoking Cessation , Analysis of Variance , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , Smoking Cessation/psychology , Survival Analysis
8.
J Addict Dis ; 15(3): 1-25, 1996.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8842847

ABSTRACT

This report presents the methodology and outcomes of an evaluation of the Chemical Dependency Recovery Program (CDRP) of Southern California Kaiser-Permanente, a large group model HMO. CDRP treatment includes specialized detoxification inpatient facilities, day treatment and outpatient services. Substance use outcomes in a population of 1,986 patients consecutively entering treatment were obtained via telephone at six and twelve months post intake. For patients who consumed only alcohol at baseline (N = 621), significantly higher six month point prevalence abstinence rates were found among those who remained in treatment for a minimum of three months (89%), compared to those patients who failed to return for treatment after their intake (31%). For polydrug users (N = 1365), as contrasted with patients who utilized services only on their intake date, significantly higher six month point prevalence rates were restricted to those who remained in treatment for a minimum of six months (74% versus 21%). The evaluation documented the need for CDRP services, validated program effectiveness and highlighted areas for systematic improvement.


Subject(s)
Health Maintenance Organizations , Program Evaluation , Substance Abuse Treatment Centers , Substance-Related Disorders/therapy , Adult , Alcoholics Anonymous , Alcoholism/epidemiology , Alcoholism/therapy , California/epidemiology , Confidence Intervals , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Health Maintenance Organizations/organization & administration , Humans , Length of Stay , Logistic Models , Male , Odds Ratio , Patient Dropouts/statistics & numerical data , Sampling Studies , Severity of Illness Index , Socioeconomic Factors , Substance Abuse Treatment Centers/methods , Substance Abuse Treatment Centers/organization & administration , Substance-Related Disorders/epidemiology , Temperance/statistics & numerical data , Treatment Outcome
9.
Clin Ther ; 17(6): 1188-206, 1995.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8750409

ABSTRACT

This article describes the research method used to measure the impact of three alternative models of patient counseling in the outpatient pharmacy setting. The study was conducted in pharmacies operated by the Southern California region Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program. Both random assignment and large-scale geographic area research designs were used. The presentation of the research design includes discussions of data collection and patient sampling methods; the measurement of patient outcomes, including measures of health care costs and utilization, patient functional status, and quality of life. Demographic data are presented for the study population, including an analysis of potential biased selection of patients electing to participate in random assignment. Data are also presented documenting potential selection bias across geographically determined treatment groups in the geographic area design arm. Finally, the article presents the analysis plan for the study and discusses study limitations.


Subject(s)
Drug Costs , Managed Care Programs , Outpatients , Patient Education as Topic , Ambulatory Care/economics , Ambulatory Care/methods , California , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , Managed Care Programs/organization & administration , Patient Education as Topic/methods , Prospective Studies , Research Design
10.
N Engl J Med ; 332(20): 1345-50, 1995 May 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-7715645

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Although many studies describe benefits from the comprehensive assessment of elderly patients by an interdisciplinary team (comprehensive geriatric assessment), the most supportive evidence for the process has come from programs that rely on specialized inpatient units and long hospital stays. We examined whether an inpatient geriatric consultation service might also be beneficial in a trial involving four medical centers of a group-practice health maintenance organization (HMO). METHODS: We conducted a randomized clinical trial with 2353 hospitalized patients 65 years of age or older in whom at least 1 of 13 screening criteria were present: stroke, immobility, impairment in any basic activity of daily living, malnutrition, incontinence, confusion or dementia, prolonged bed rest, recent falls, depression, social or family problems, an unplanned readmission to the hospital within three months of a previous hospital stay, a new fracture, and age of 80 years or older. Of the 1337 patients assigned to the experimental group, 1261 (94 percent) received a comprehensive geriatric assessment in the form of a consultation, with limited follow-up; the 1016 patients assigned to the control group received usual care. The functional and health status of the patients was measured at base line and 3 and 12 months later; survival was assessed at 12 months. Subgroups of patients who might be presumed to benefit from comprehensive assessment were also studied. RESULTS: The survival rate at 12 months was 74 percent in the experimental group and 75 percent in the control group. At base line, 3 months, and 12 months the scores of the two groups on measures of functional and health status were similar. The analysis of 16 subgroups did not identify any with either clearly improved functional status or improved survival. CONCLUSIONS: In this HMO, comprehensive geriatric assessment by a consultation team, with limited follow-up, did not improve the health or survival of hospitalized patients selected on the basis of screening criteria.


Subject(s)
Critical Care , Geriatric Assessment , Health Maintenance Organizations , Hospitalization , Patient Care Team , Referral and Consultation/organization & administration , Activities of Daily Living , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , California , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Health Status , Humans , Male , Treatment Outcome
11.
Am J Prev Med ; 11(3): 178-84, 1995.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-7662397

ABSTRACT

Studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions targeted at women who are smoking during pregnancy. In contrast, there is limited information about the experience of smokers who have stopped before entering prenatal care--"spontaneous quitters." These women constitute the majority of women who stop smoking sometime during pregnancy, although evidence suggests that as many as one third relapse prior to delivery. We report the results of a population-based randomized clinical trial that tested the effectiveness of a relapse prevention program for spontaneous quitters. The intervention consisted predominantly of printed materials received through the mail. The population (n = 171) of spontaneous quitters was an ethnically diverse group of women enrolled in a large health maintenance organization. Biochemical confirmation of continuous abstinence through delivery revealed that 16% of the women in the experimental self-help program relapsed compared with 20% of usual care controls (NS). Analysis confirmed that the program was equally ineffective among all subgroups including women at highest risk for relapse. Given the negative outcomes associated with self-help materials and clinic-based counseling reported in this and other trials, alternative intervention strategies need to be developed and tested for this significant group of prepregnancy smokers.


Subject(s)
Health Education , Smoking Cessation/statistics & numerical data , Smoking Prevention , Adult , California/epidemiology , Female , Health Behavior , Humans , Postal Service , Pregnancy , Prospective Studies , Recurrence , Smoking/epidemiology
12.
Gastroenterology ; 106(6): 1501-4, 1994 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8194695

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Colonoscopy is presently recommended for patients with any benign neoplasm found on sigmoidoscopy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether characteristics of adenomas on flexible sigmoidoscopy predict advanced lesions on baseline colonoscopy. METHODS: A total of 226 asymptomatic and symptomatic patients with adenomas noted on flexible sigmoidoscopy at a large, multispecialty medical group were prospectively studied. The histology, size, and number of benign polyps on flexible sigmoidoscopy were compared with those on subsequent colonoscopy. Advanced lesions were defined as adenomas > 1 cm in diameter or with villous or severe dysplasia histology. Univariate comparisons were assessed using the chi 2 test and multivariate analysis with stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS: There was a 24% prevalence of new adenomas found on colonoscopy. Six percent of the patients had advanced lesions on colonoscopy, and none had cancer. Multivariate analysis indicated that findings on flexible sigmoidoscopy predict (P < 0.01) those on colonoscopy. Patients with advanced lesions on sigmoidoscopy had a > 10% prevalence of an advanced lesion on colonoscopy. Patients with small (< or = 1 cm) tubular adenoma(s) on sigmoidoscopy had a < 1% occurrence of an advanced synchronous lesion. CONCLUSIONS: The histology and size of benign neoplasms found on flexible sigmoidoscopy predict findings on baseline colonoscopy.


Subject(s)
Adenoma/pathology , Colonic Neoplasms/pathology , Colonoscopy , Sigmoidoscopy , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Regression Analysis
13.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 42(5): 536-44, 1994 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8176150

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evaluation of an interdisciplinary comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) consultation program for targeted hospitalized patients. DESIGN: Multi-center randomized clinical trial (RCT) at four hospitals where patients were randomly assigned to CGA consultation or usual care by the attending physician, and a non-equivalent control group (NCG) at two hospitals. SETTING: Six hospitals in a multi-specialty group practice model health maintenance organization (HMO). PARTICIPANTS: 3593 patients age 65 years or older meeting at least one of 13 inclusionary criteria at admission. INTERVENTION: Screening by hospital staff and standardized CGA consultation conducted by a nurse practitioner, social worker, and geriatrician at the four RCT hospitals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Functional and health status, mortality, rehospitalization, and cost-effectiveness of the CGA program at 1 year post-randomization; validation of targeting (inclusionary) criteria that identify subgroups of patients deriving benefit from CGA; and physician contamination (learning from CGA and changing treatment provided to control patients). CONCLUSIONS: A number of methodological issues need to be considered when conducting effectiveness trials of CGA. The concurrent design of a multi-center RCT, coupled with the NCG to determine physician contamination, is an innovative approach intended to determine more precisely the cost-effectiveness of CGA for frail hospitalized elderly persons. The large and heterogeneous patient population and the broad array of inclusionary criteria will permit the evaluation of the benefit of CGA for subgroups. All these features are intended to enhance the generalizability of study results.


Subject(s)
Geriatric Assessment , Health Maintenance Organizations , Hospitalization , Aged , Evaluation Studies as Topic , Health Services for the Aged/economics , Health Services for the Aged/trends , Health Status , Hospitalization/economics , Humans , Patient Care Team , Research Design
14.
Am J Public Health ; 83(2): 173-8, 1993 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8427318

ABSTRACT

The smoking prevalence rate among adult women and pregnant women has decreased only 0.3 to 0.5% per year since 1969. Without a nationwide dissemination of efficacious smoking cessation methods based on these trends, by the year 2000 the smoking prevalence among pregnant women will be approximately 18%. This estimate is well above the US Department of Health and Human Services Year 2000 Objective of 10%. The US dissemination of tested smoking cessation methods could help an additional 12,900 to 155,000 pregnant smokers annually and 600,000 to 1,481,000 cumulatively to quit smoking during the 1990s. Dissemination could help achieve 31 to 78% of the Year 2000 Objectives for pregnancy smoking prevalence. (With dissemination, at best a 15% smoking prevalence during pregnancy, rather than the 10% objective, is likely to be observed.) Our results confirm a well-documented need for a national campaign to disseminate smoking cessation methods.


Subject(s)
Health Policy , Health Promotion , Information Services , Pregnancy , Smoking Cessation , Smoking/epidemiology , Adult , Cohort Studies , Evaluation Studies as Topic , Female , Humans , Prevalence , United States/epidemiology
15.
Addict Behav ; 16(1-2): 29-40, 1991.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-2048456

ABSTRACT

This study explores the experience of pregnant women who quit smoking prior to initiating prenatal care. These "spontaneous quitters" comprised 41% of a socioeconomically and ethnically diverse population of prepregnancy smokers enrolled in a health maintenance organization. Compared to women who were smoking at the start of prenatal care, spontaneous quitters had been lighter smokers, were less likely to have another smoker in their household, indicated a stronger belief in the harmful effect of maternal smoking, had a history of fewer miscarriages, and entered prenatal care earlier. Biochemical validation of smoking status over the course of pregnancy found that 21% of the spontaneous quitters relapsed prior to delivery. Characteristics reported at the first prenatal visit that were associated with maintenance included having achieved cessation for a longer period of time without smoking even a puff, higher self-efficacy for maintenance, stronger belief in the harmful effect of maternal smoking, primigravida, and greater frequency of nausea. The identification of spontaneous quitters and selected intervention for those at greatest risk of relapse is recommended for inclusion in routine prenatal care.


Subject(s)
Attitude to Health , Pregnancy/psychology , Prenatal Care/psychology , Smoking/psychology , Adult , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Motivation , Recurrence , Risk Factors , Smoking Prevention , Social Environment
16.
Ann Intern Med ; 114(2): 137-41, 1991 Jan 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-1984389

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relations among patient history, symptoms, objective indicators, and abnormal double-contrast barium enema results in outpatients. PATIENTS AND SETTING: Seven hundred and ninety-four patients receiving care in a large multispecialty medical group. DESIGN: Physicians completed a form before ordering a double-contrast barium enema, listing information about patient history, symptoms, and objective findings, including the results of a complete blood count, stool hemoccult, and sigmoidoscopy. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcome measures were colon cancer and any abnormal finding. The results of 18.6% of the barium enemas were abnormal. The most frequent positive findings were of polyps (8.8%) and colon cancer (2.9%). Over 50% of the barium enemas were ordered solely on the basis of symptoms, yet there was no statistical correlation between symptoms and colon cancer or any positive finding. Using logistic regression, four variables were shown to be significant predictors of colon cancer (P less than 0.05): abnormal sigmoidoscopy, iron deficiency anemia, positive stool hemoccult results, and relevant history. The respective odds ratios of these variables were 3.76 (95% CI, 2.89 to 4.90); 2.86 (CI, 2.13 to 3.74); 1.87 (CI, 1.46 to 2.39); and 1.91 (CI, 1.44 to 2.52), respectively. In a patient without any of these indicators, the predicted probability of having colon cancer was only 0.7%. In a patient with at least two objective indicators, the probability of having colon cancer was greater than 15%. CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms without objective indicators or pertinent risk factors do not correlate with an abnormal double-contrast barium enema result. Objective indicators are useful predictors of an abnormal barium enema result, particularly when looking for colon cancer.


Subject(s)
Barium Sulfate , Enema , Intestinal Diseases/diagnostic imaging , Aged , Colonic Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Occult Blood , Predictive Value of Tests , Prospective Studies , Radiography , Regression Analysis , Sigmoidoscopy
17.
Am J Public Health ; 80(8): 992-4, 1990 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-2368867

ABSTRACT

This paper describes self-reported maintenance of nonsmoking at six months postpartum by women whose abstinence was verified beginning before the 20th week of pregnancy and continuing through delivery (n = 134). The overall maintenance rate of 37 percent was not related to sociodemographic characteristics, smoking and obstetric history, the time when quitting occurred, or a prenatal smoking cessation program. Although this rate is encouraging, more attention should be directed to sustaining prenatal abstinence from smoking beyond delivery.


Subject(s)
Postpartum Period , Pregnancy , Smoking Prevention , Adult , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Interviews as Topic , Socioeconomic Factors
18.
Public Health Rep ; 105(4): 340-7, 1990.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-2116634

ABSTRACT

The results of a randomized clinical trial of a prenatal self-help smoking cessation program are reported in terms of the pregnancy and cost outcomes. The study population were the socioeconomically and ethnically diverse members of a large health maintenance organization (HMO) who reported that they were smoking at the time of their first prenatal visit. The intervention consisted predominantly of printed materials received through the mail. Compared with the usual care control group, women assigned to the self-help program were more likely to achieve cessation for the majority of their pregnancy (22.2 percent versus 8.6 percent), gave birth to infants weighing on average 57 grams more, and were 45 percent less likely to deliver a low birth weight infant. An economic evaluation of the self-help program was conducted from the perspective of the sponsoring HMO. Based upon the expenditures associated with the neonates' initial hospital episode, the intervention had a benefit-cost ratio of 2.8:1. These findings provide strong evidence to support widespread incorporation of smoking cessation interventions as a standard component of prenatal care.


Subject(s)
Pregnancy Outcome , Prenatal Care/economics , Self-Help Groups , Smoking/therapy , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Female , Health Maintenance Organizations , Humans , Infant, Low Birth Weight , Infant, Newborn , Infant, Premature , Pregnancy , Program Evaluation
19.
Am J Public Health ; 79(2): 182-7, 1989 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-2913837

ABSTRACT

We report the results of a population-based randomized clinical trial that tested the effectiveness of a prenatal self-help smoking cessation program. The intervention consisted predominantly of printed materials received through the mail. The population (n = 242) consisted of a socioeconomically and ethnically diverse group of pregnant women enrolled in a large health maintenance organization (HMO) who reported they were smoking at the time of their first prenatal visit. Biochemical confirmation of continuous abstinence achieved prior to the 20th completed week of pregnancy and lasting through delivery revealed 22.2 per cent of the women in the eight-week serialized program quit versus 8.6 per cent of controls with usual care. The adjusted odds ratio was 2.80 (95 per cent CI = 1.17, 6.69). We conclude that a low-cost prenatal self-help intervention can significantly affect the public health problem of smoking during pregnancy and its associated risks for maternal and child health.


Subject(s)
Pregnancy , Smoking Prevention , Adolescent , Adult , Attitude to Health , Female , Humans , Prospective Studies , Random Allocation , Socioeconomic Factors
20.
Med Care ; 25(5): 426-36, 1987 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-3320597

ABSTRACT

Methodologies for determining levels of U.S. physician requirement are as complex as they are controversial. One long-standing controversy surrounds the advantages of an epidemiologic need-based forecasting model over an economic demand-based model. This paper examines the need-based requirement approach as recently developed by the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC). This approach is assessed for the pediatric specialty by replicating the original model using data derived from three large HMOs. These data were empirically obtained from the computerized visit records of more than 10,000 children at each of the three plans and normatively from Delphi panels consisting of pediatric practitioners at those same sites. Results indicate that if U.S. pediatrician requirement was estimated on the basis of HMO practice data, rather than GMENAC's national ideals, fewer physicians would be needed. The pediatric requirement based on local Delphi panel judgments was lower still, due in great part to the suggestion of increased delegation rates to nonphysician providers. Implications of this comparative analysis for the GMENAC need-based methodology and future physician requirement modeling efforts are discussed.


Subject(s)
Forecasting , Health Maintenance Organizations/statistics & numerical data , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Health Services Research/trends , Models, Theoretical , Pediatrics , Boston , California , Child , Delphi Technique , Humans , Minnesota , United States , Workforce
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