Road traffic injuries in Baghdad from 2003 to 2014: results of a randomised household cluster survey.

INTRODUCTION: Around 50 million people are killed or left disabled on the world's roads each year; most are in middle-income cities. In addition to this background risk, Baghdad has been plagued by decades of insecurity that undermine injury prevention strategies. This study aimed to determine death and disability and household consequences of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in postinvasion Baghdad. METHODS: A two-stage, cluster-randomised, community-based household survey was performed in May 2014 to determine the civilian burden of injury from 2003 to 2014 in Baghdad. In addition to questions about household member death, households were interviewed regarding crash specifics, healthcare required, disability, relatedness to conflict and resultant financial hardship. RESULTS: Nine hundred households, totalling 5148 individuals, were interviewed. There were 86 RTIs (16% of all reported injuries) that resulted in 8 deaths (9% of RTIs). Serious RTIs increased in the decade postinvasion and were estimated to be 26 341 in 2013 (350 per 100 000 persons). 53% of RTIs involved pedestrians, motorcyclists or bicyclists. 51% of families directly affected by a RTI reported a significant decline in household income or suffered food insecurity. CONCLUSIONS: RTIs were extremely common and have increased in Baghdad. Young adults, pedestrians, motorcyclists and bicyclists were the most frequently injured or killed by RTCs. There is a large burden of road injury, and the families of road injury victims suffered considerably from lost wages, often resulting in household food insecurity. Ongoing conflict may worsen RTI risk and undermine efforts to reduce road traffic death and disability.

Burns in Baghdad from 2003 to 2014: Results of a randomized household cluster survey.

PURPOSE: Civilians living amid conflict are at high-risk of burns. However, the epidemiology of burns among this vulnerable group is poorly understood, yet vital for health policy and relief planning. To address this gap, we aimed to determine the death and disability, healthcare needs and household financial consequences of burns in post-invasion Baghdad. METHODS: A two-stage, cluster randomized, community-based household survey was performed in May 2014 to determine the civilian burden of injury from 2003 to 2014 in Baghdad. In addition to questions about cause of household member death, households were interviewed regarding burn specifics, healthcare required, disability, relationship to conflict and resultant financial hardship. RESULTS: Nine-hundred households, totaling 5148 individuals, were interviewed. There were 55 burns, which were 10% of all injuries reported. There were an estimated 2340 serious burns (39 per 100,000 persons) in Baghdad in 2003. The frequency of serious burns generally increased post-invasion to 8780 burns in 2013 (117 per 100,000 persons). Eight burns (15%) were the direct result of conflict. Individuals aged over 45 years had more than twice the odds of burn than children aged less than 13 years (aOR 2.42; 95%CI 1.08-5.44). Nineteen burns (35%) involved ≥ 20% body surface area. Death (16% of burns), disability (40%), household financial hardship (48%) and food insecurity (50%) were common after burn. CONCLUSION: Civilian burn in Baghdad is epidemic, increasing in frequency and associated with household financial hardship. Challenges of healthcare provision during prolonged conflict were evidenced by a high mortality rate and likelihood of disability after burn. Ongoing conflict will directly and indirectly generates more burns, which mandates planning for burn prevention and care within local capacity development initiatives, as well as humanitarian assistance.

Fall injuries in Baghdad from 2003 to 2014: Results of a randomised household cluster survey.

INTRODUCTION: Falls incur nearly 35 million disability-adjusted life-years annually; 75% of which occur in low- and middle-income countries. The epidemiology of civilian injuries during conflict is relatively unknown, yet important for planning prevention initiatives, health policy and humanitarian assistance. This study aimed to determine the death and disability and household consequences of fall injuries in post-invasion Baghdad. METHODS: A two-stage, cluster randomised, community-based household survey was performed in May of 2014 to determine the civilian burden of injury from 2003 to 2014 in Baghdad. In addition to questions about household member death, households were interviewed regarding injury specifics, healthcare required, disability, relatedness to conflict and resultant financial hardship. RESULTS: Nine hundred households totaling 5148 individuals were interviewed. There were 138 fall injuries (25% of all injuries reported); fall was the most common mechanism of civilian injury in Baghdad. The rate of serious fall injuries increased from 78 to 466 per 100,000 persons in 2003 and 2013, respectively. Fall was the most common mechanism among the injured elderly (i.e. ≥65 years; 15/24 elderly unintentional injuries; 63%). However, 46 fall injuries were children aged <15 years (49% of unintentional injuries) and 77 were respondents aged 15-64 years (36%). Respondents who spent significant time within the home (i.e. unemployed, retired, homemaker) had three times greater odds of having suffered a fall injury than student referents (aOR 3.34; 95%CI 1.30-8.60). Almost 80% of fall injured were left with life-limiting disability. Affected households often borrowed substantial sums of money (34 households; 30% of affected households) and/or suffered food insecurity after a family member's fall (52; 46%). CONCLUSION: Falls were the most common cause of civilian injury in Baghdad. In part due to the effect of prolonged insecurity on a fragile health system, many injuries resulted in life-limiting disabilities. In turn, households shouldered much of the burden after fall injury due to loss of income and/or medical expenditure, often resulting in food insecurity. Given ongoing conflict, civilian injury control initiatives, trauma care strengthening efforts and support for households of the injured is urgently needed.

Mortality in Iraq associated with the 2003-2011 war and occupation: findings from a national cluster sample survey by the university collaborative Iraq Mortality Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous estimates of mortality in Iraq attributable to the 2003 invasion have been heterogeneous and controversial, and none were produced after 2006. The purpose of this research was to estimate direct and indirect deaths attributable to the war in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a survey of 2,000 randomly selected households throughout Iraq, using a two-stage cluster sampling method to ensure the sample of households was nationally representative. We asked every household head about births and deaths since 2001, and all household adults about mortality among their siblings. We used secondary data sources to correct for out-migration. From March 1, 2003, to June 30, 2011, the crude death rate in Iraq was 4.55 per 1,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 3.74-5.27), more than 0.5 times higher than the death rate during the 26-mo period preceding the war, resulting in approximately 405,000 (95% uncertainty interval 48,000-751,000) excess deaths attributable to the conflict. Among adults, the risk of death rose 0.7 times higher for women and 2.9 times higher for men between the pre-war period (January 1, 2001, to February 28, 2003) and the peak of the war (2005-2006). We estimate that more than 60% of excess deaths were directly attributable to violence, with the rest associated with the collapse of infrastructure and other indirect, but war-related, causes. We used secondary sources to estimate rates of death among emigrants. Those estimates suggest we missed at least 55,000 deaths that would have been reported by households had the households remained behind in Iraq, but which instead had migrated away. Only 24 households refused to participate in the study. An additional five households were not interviewed because of hostile or threatening behavior, for a 98.55% response rate. The reliance on outdated census data and the long recall period required of participants are limitations of our study. CONCLUSIONS: Beyond expected rates, most mortality increases in Iraq can be attributed to direct violence, but about a third are attributable to indirect causes (such as from failures of health, sanitation, transportation, communication, and other systems). Approximately a half million deaths in Iraq could be attributable to the war. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.