Waning of SARS-CoV-2 booster viral-load reduction effectiveness

The BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine has been shown to reduce viral load of breakthrough infections (BTIs), an important factor affecting infectiousness. This viral-load protective effect has been waning with time post the second vaccine and later restored with a booster shot. It is currently unclear though for how long this regained effectiveness lasts. Analyzing Ct values of SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR tests of over 22,000 infections during a Delta-variant-dominant period in Israel, we found that this viral-load reduction effectiveness significantly declines within months post the booster dose. Adjusting for age, sex and calendric date, Ct values of RdRp gene initially increased by 2.7 [CI: 2.3-3.0] relative to unvaccinated in the first month post the booster dose, yet then decayed to a difference of 1.3 [CI: 0.7-1.9] in the second month and became small and insignificant in the third to fourth months. The rate and magnitude of this post-booster decline in viral-load reduction effectiveness mirror those observed post the second vaccine. These results suggest rapid waning of the boosters effectiveness in reducing infectiousness, possibly affecting community-level spread of the virus.

Viral loads of Delta-variant SARS-CoV2 breakthrough infections following vaccination and booster with the BNT162b2 vaccine

The BNT162b2 vaccine showed high real-life effectiveness both at preventing disease and in reducing viral loads of breakthrough infections, but coincidental with the rise of the Delta-variant SARS-CoV2, these protective effects have been decreasing, prompting a third, booster, vaccine inoculation. Here, analyzing viral loads of over 11,000 infections during the current wave in Israel, we find that even though this wave is dominated by the Delta-variant, breakthrough infections in recently vaccinated patients, still within 2 months post their second vaccine inoculation, do have lower viral loads compared to unvaccinated patients, with the extent of viral load reduction similar to pre-Delta breakthrough observations. Yet, this infectiousness protection starts diminishing for patients two months post vaccination and ultimately vanishes for patients 6 months or longer post vaccination. Encouragingly, we find that this diminishing vaccine effectiveness on breakthrough infection viral loads is restored following the booster vaccine. These results suggest that the vaccine is initially effective in reducing infectiousness of breakthrough infections even with the Delta variant, and that while this protectiveness effect declines with time it can be restored, at least temporarily, with a booster vaccine.

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among unvaccinated is negatively associated with community-level vaccination rates

Mass vaccination has the potential to curb the current COVID-19 pandemic by protecting vaccinees from the disease and possibly lowering the chance of transmission to unvaccinated individuals. The high effectiveness of the widely-administered BNT162b vaccine in preventing not only the disease but also infection suggests a potential for a population-level effect, critical for disease eradication. However, this putative effect is difficult to observe, especially in light of highly fluctuating spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics. Here, analyzing vaccination records and test results collected during a rapid vaccine rollout for a large population from 223 geographically defined communities, we find that the rates of vaccination in each community are highly correlated with a later decline in infections among a cohort of under 16 years old which are unvaccinated. These results provide observational evidence that vaccination not only protects individual vaccinees but also provides cross-protection to unvaccinated individuals in the community.

Associations of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness with patient age and comorbidities

Vaccinations are considered the major tool to curb the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A randomized placebo-controlled trial of the BNT162b2 vaccine has demonstrated a 95% efficacy in preventing COVID-19 disease. These results are now corroborated with statistical analyses of real-world vaccination rollouts, but resolving vaccine effectiveness across demographic groups is challenging. Here, applying a multivariable logistic regression analysis approach to a large patient-level dataset, including SARS-CoV-2 tests, vaccine inoculations and personalized demographics, we model vaccine effectiveness at daily resolution and its interaction with sex, age and comorbidities. Vaccine effectiveness gradually increased post day 12 of inoculation, then plateaued, around 35 days, reaching 91.2% [CI 88.8%-93.1%] for all infections and 99.3% [CI 95.3%-99.9%] for symptomatic infections. Effectiveness was uniform for men and women yet declined mildly but significantly with age and for patients with specific chronic comorbidities, most notably type 2 diabetes. Quantifying real-world vaccine effectiveness, including both biological and behavioral effects, our analysis provides initial measurement of vaccine effectiveness across demographic groups.

Decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load following vaccination

Beyond their substantial protection of individual vaccinees, it is hoped that the COVID-19 vaccines would reduce viral load in breakthrough infections thereby further suppress onward transmission. Here, analyzing positive SARS-CoV-2 test results following inoculation with the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, we find that the viral load is reduced 4-fold for infections occurring 12-28 days after the first dose of vaccine. These reduced viral loads hint to lower infectiousness, further contributing to vaccine impact on virus spread.

Association of COVID-19 RT-qPCR test false-negative rate with patient age, sex and time since diagnosis

BackgroundRoutine testing for SARS-CoV-2 in the community is essential for guiding key epidemiological decisions from the quarantine of individual patients to enrolling regional and national preventive measures. Yet, the primary testing tool, the RT-qPCR based testing, is notoriously known for its low sensitivity, i.e. high risk of missed detection of carriers. Quantifying the false-negative rate (FNR) of the RT-qPCR test at the community settings and its dependence on patient demographic and disease progression is therefore key in designing and refining strategies for disease spread prevention. MethodsAnalyzing 843,917 test results of 521,696 patients, we identified false-negative (FN) and true-positive (TP) results as negative and positive results preceded by a COVID-19 diagnosis and followed by a later positive test. Regression analyses were used to determine associations of false-negative results with time of sampling after diagnosis, patient demographics and viral loads based on RT-qPCR Ct values of the next positive tests. FindingsThe overall FNR was 22.8%, which is consistent with previous studies. Yet, this rate was much lower at the first 5 days following diagnosis (10.7%) and only increased in later dates. Furthermore, the FNR was strongly associated with demographics, with odds ratio of 1.74 (95% CI: 1.58-1.90) for women over men and 1.36 (95% CI: 1.34-1.39) for 10 years younger patients. Finally, FNR was associated with viral loads (p-value 0.0005), with a difference of 1.50 (95% CI: 0.70-2.30) between the average Ct of the N gene in a positive test following a false-negative compared to a positive test following a true-positive. InterpretationOur results show that in the first few days following diagnosis, when results are critical for quarantine decisions, RT-qPCR testing is more reliable than previously reported. Yet the reliability of the test result is reduced in later days as well as for women and younger patients, where the viral loads are typically lower. FundingThis research was supported by the ISRAEL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (grant No. 3633/19) within the KillCorona - Curbing Coronavirus Research Program.