Classification of early tuberculosis states to guide research for improved care and prevention: an international Delphi consensus exercise.

The current active-latent paradigm of tuberculosis largely neglects the documented spectrum of disease. Inconsistency with regard to definitions, terminology, and diagnostic criteria for different tuberculosis states has limited the progress in research and product development that are needed to achieve tuberculosis elimination. We aimed to develop a new framework of classification for tuberculosis that accommodates key disease states but is sufficiently simple to support pragmatic research and implementation. Through an international Delphi exercise that involved 71 participants representing a wide range of disciplines, sectors, income settings, and geographies, consensus was reached on a set of conceptual states, related terminology, and research gaps. The International Consensus for Early TB (ICE-TB) framework distinguishes disease from infection by the presence of macroscopic pathology and defines two subclinical and two clinical tuberculosis states on the basis of reported symptoms or signs of tuberculosis, further differentiated by likely infectiousness. The presence of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis and an associated host response are prerequisites for all states of infection and disease. Our framework provides a clear direction for tuberculosis research, which will, in time, improve tuberculosis clinical care and elimination policies.

Diagnosis and management of tuberculosis infection in inclusion health populations in London.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis in the UK is more prevalent in people with social risk factors- e.g. previous incarceration, homelessness - and in migrants from TB endemic countries. The management of TB infection is part of TB elimination strategies, but is challenging to provide to socially excluded groups and the evidence base for effective interventions is small. METHODS: We evaluated a TB infection screening and treatment programme provided by a peer-led service (Find&Treat) working in inclusion health settings (e.g. homeless hostels) in London. IGRA (interferon-gamma release assay) testing and TB infection treatment were offered to eligible adults using a community-based model. The primary outcome was successful progression through the cascade of care. We also evaluated socio-demographic characteristics associated with a positive IGRA. RESULTS: 42/312 (13.5%) participants had a positive IGRA and no one had evidence of active TB. 35/42 completed a medical evaluation; 22 started treatment, and 17 completed treatment. Having a positive IGRA was associated with previous incarceration and being born outside of the UK. DISCUSSION: Provision of TB infection diagnosis and management to this socially excluded population has several challenges including maintaining people in care and drug-drug interactions. Peer-support workers provided this service safely and effectively with appropriate support. Further work to generate data to inform risks and benefits of treatment for TB infection in this group is needed to facilitate joint decision making.

[A global core outcome measurement set for snakebite clinical trials]. / Définition d'un jeu universel de critères de décision de base pour les essais cliniques sur les morsures de serpent.

Background: Snakebite clinical trials have often used heterogeneous outcome measures and there is an urgent need for standardisation. Method: A globally representative group of key stakeholders came together to reach consensus on a globally relevant set of core outcome measurements. Outcome domains and outcome measurement instruments were identified through searching the literature and a systematic review of snakebite clinical trials. Outcome domains were shortlisted by use of a questionnaire and consensus was reached among stakeholders and the patient group through facilitated discussions and voting. Results: Five universal core outcome measures should be included in all future snakebite clinical trials: mortality, WHO disability assessment scale, patient-specific functional scale, acute allergic reaction by Brown criteria, and serum sickness by formal criteria. Additional syndrome-specific core outcome measures should be used depending on the biting species. Conclusion: This core outcome measurement set provides global standardisation, supports the priorities of patients and clinicians, enables meta-analysis, and is appropriate for use in low-income and middle-income settings.

Treatment for radiographically active, sputum culture-negative pulmonary tuberculosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: People with radiographic evidence for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), but negative sputum cultures, have increased risk of developing culture-positive TB. Recent expansion of X-ray screening is leading to increased identification of this group. We set out to synthesise the evidence for treatment to prevent progression to culture-positive disease. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched for prospective trials evaluating the efficacy of TB regimens against placebo, observation, or alternative regimens, for the treatment of adults and children with radiographic evidence of TB but culture-negative respiratory samples. Databases were searched up to 18 Oct 2022. Study quality was assessed using ROB 2·0 and ROBINS-I. The primary outcome was progression to culture-positive TB. Meta-analysis with a random effects model was conducted to estimate pooled efficacy. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021248486). FINDINGS: We included 13 trials (32,568 individuals) conducted between 1955 and 2018. Radiographic and bacteriological criteria for inclusion varied. 19·1% to 57·9% of participants with active x-ray changes and no treatment progressed to culture-positive disease. Progression was reduced with any treatment (6 studies, risk ratio [RR] 0·27, 95%CI 0·13-0·56), although multi-drug TB treatment (RR 0·11, 95%CI 0·05-0·23) was significantly more effective than isoniazid treatment (RR 0·63, 95%CI 0·35-1·13) (p = 0·0002). INTERPRETATION: Multi-drug regimens were associated with significantly reduced risk of progression to TB disease for individuals with radiographically apparent, but culture-negative TB. However, most studies were old, conducted prior to the HIV epidemic and with outdated regimens. New clinical trials are required to identify the optimal treatment approach.

Reevaluating progression and pathways following Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection within the spectrum of tuberculosis.

Traditional understanding of the risk of progression from Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection to tuberculosis (TB) overlooks diverse presentations across a spectrum of disease. We developed a deterministic model of Mtb infection and minimal (pathological damage but not infectious), subclinical (infectious but no reported symptoms), and clinical (infectious and symptomatic) TB, informed by a rigorous evaluation of data from a systematic review of TB natural history. Using a Bayesian approach, we calibrated the model to data from historical cohorts that followed tuberculin-negative individuals to tuberculin conversion and TB, as well as data from cohorts that followed progression and regression between disease states, disease state prevalence ratios, disease duration, and mortality. We estimated incidence, pathways, and 10-y outcomes following Mtb infection for a simulated cohort. Then, 92.0% (95% uncertainty interval, UI, 91.4 to 92.5) of individuals self-cleared within 10 y of infection, while 7.9% (95% UI 7.4 to 8.5) progressed to TB. Of those, 68.6% (95% UI 65.4 to 72.0) developed infectious disease, and 33.2% (95% UI 29.9 to 36.4) progressed to clinical disease. While 98% of progression to minimal disease occurred within 2 y of infection, only 71% and 44% of subclinical and clinical disease, respectively, occurred within this period. Multiple progression pathways from infection were necessary to calibrate the model and 49.5% (95% UI 45.6 to 53.7) of those who developed infectious disease undulated between disease states. We identified heterogeneous pathways across disease states after Mtb infection, highlighting the need for clearly defined disease thresholds to inform more effective prevention and treatment efforts to end TB.

Patients' priorities around drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment: A multi-national qualitative study from Mongolia, South Africa and Georgia.

We conducted qualitative research exploring the treatment experience of people with DR-TB. We held nine focus group discussions with 57 adults undergoing/recently completed treatment for DR-TB in Georgia, Mongolia and South Africa. Translated transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. We identified three higher order themes: (1) Treatment experience and the role of good relationships with healthcare providers: Treatment duration, pill burden and side-effects were challenging aspects of treatment. Side-effects/symptoms that were visible signs of illness were particularly troubling. Good relations with clinical staff helped combat fear and uncertainty regarding treatment. (2) Mental distress and opportunities for wellbeing: The shame, stigma and isolation people experienced as a result of their DR-TB diagnosis was an important cause of mental distress. No longer being infectious enabled people to resume work and socialising. Positive emotions emerged with good treatment outcomes. (3) Fear and worry along the treatment journey: Participants expressed fears about TB: infecting others; whether they would be able to endure treatment; side-effects; health consequences of treatment. Worries mostly disappeared with successful treatment. Alongside measuring side-effects, time to culture conversion and cure rates, future trials of DR-TB treatments should capture how quickly visible symptoms resolve, quality of life measures, and mental health outcomes.

High resolution imaging and five-year tuberculosis contact outcomes.

Background: The evolution of tuberculosis (TB) disease during the clinical latency period remains incompletely understood. Methods: 250 HIV-uninfected, adult household contacts of rifampicin-resistant TB with a negative symptom screen underwent baseline 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission and computed tomography (PET/CT), repeated in 112 after 5-15 months. Following South African and WHO guidelines, participants did not receive preventive therapy. All participants had intensive baseline screening with spontaneous, followed by induced, sputum sampling and were then observed for an average of 4.7 years for culture-positive disease. Baseline PET/CT abnormalities were evaluated in relation to culture-positive disease. Results: At baseline, 59 (23.6%) participants had lung PET/CT findings consistent with TB of which 29 (11.6%) were defined as Subclinical TB, and 30 (12%) Subclinical TB-inactive. A further 83 (33.2%) had other lung parenchymal abnormalities and 108 (43.2%) had normal lungs. Over 1107-person years of follow-up 14 cases of culture-positive TB were diagnosed. Six cases were detected by intensive baseline screening, all would have been missed by the South African symptom-based screening strategy and only one detected by a WHO-recommended chest X-Ray screening strategy. Those with baseline Subclinical TB lesions on PET/CT were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with culture-positive TB over the study period, compared to those with normal lung parenchyma (10/29 [34.5%] vs 2/108 [1.9%], Hazard Ratio 22.37 [4.89-102.47, p<0.001]). Conclusions: These findings challenge the latent/active TB paradigm demonstrating that subclinical disease exists up to 4 years prior to microbiological detection and/or symptom onset. There are important implications for screening and management of TB.

Quantifying progression and regression across the spectrum of pulmonary tuberculosis: a data synthesis study.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence surveys show a substantial burden of subclinical (asymptomatic but infectious) tuberculosis, from which individuals can progress, regress, or even persist in a chronic disease state. We aimed to quantify these pathways across the spectrum of tuberculosis disease. METHODS: We created a deterministic framework of untreated tuberculosis disease with progression and regression between three states of pulmonary tuberculosis disease: minimal (non-infectious), subclinical (asymptomatic but infectious), and clinical (symptomatic and infectious). We obtained data from a previous systematic review of prospective and retrospective studies that followed and recorded the disease state of individuals with tuberculosis in a cohort without treatment. These data were considered in a Bayesian framework, enabling quantitative estimation of tuberculosis disease pathways with rates of transition between states and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: We included 22 studies with data from 5942 individuals in our analysis. Our model showed that after 5 years, 40% (95% UI 31·3-48·0) of individuals with prevalent subclinical disease at baseline recover and 18% (13·3-24·0) die from tuberculosis, with 14% (9·9-19·2) still having infectious disease, and the remainder with minimal disease at risk of re-progression. Over 5 years, 50% (40·0-59·1) of individuals with subclinical disease at baseline never develop symptoms. For those with clinical disease at baseline, 46% (38·3-52·2) die and 20% (15·2-25·8) recover from tuberculosis, with the remainder being in or transitioning between the three disease states after 5 years. We estimated the 10-year mortality of people with untreated prevalent infectious tuberculosis to be 37% (30·5-45·4). INTERPRETATION: For people with subclinical tuberculosis, classic clinical disease is neither an inevitable nor an irreversible outcome. As such, reliance on symptom-based screening means a large proportion of people with infectious disease might never be detected. FUNDING: TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium and European Research Council.

The natural history of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Stages of tuberculosis disease can be delineated by radiology, microbiology, and symptoms, but transitions between these stages remain unclear. In a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of individuals with untreated tuberculosis who underwent follow-up (34 cohorts from 24 studies, with a combined sample of 139 063), we aimed to quantify progression and regression across the tuberculosis disease spectrum by extracting summary estimates to align with disease transitions in a conceptual framework of the natural history of tuberculosis. Progression from microbiologically negative to positive disease (based on smear or culture tests) in participants with baseline radiographic evidence of tuberculosis occurred at an annualised rate of 10% (95% CI 6·2-13·3) in those with chest x-rays suggestive of active tuberculosis, and at a rate of 1% (0·3-1·8) in those with chest x-ray changes suggestive of inactive tuberculosis. Reversion from microbiologically positive to undetectable disease in prospective cohorts occurred at an annualised rate of 12% (6·8-18·0). A better understanding of the natural history of pulmonary tuberculosis, including the risk of progression in relation to radiological findings, could improve estimates of the global disease burden and inform the development of clinical guidelines and policies for treatment and prevention.

Identification and control for the effects of bioinformatic globin depletion on human RNA-seq differential expression analysis.

When profiling blood samples by RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq), RNA from haemoglobin (Hgb) can account for up to 70% of the transcriptome. Due to considerations of sequencing depth and power to detect biological variation, Hgb RNA is typically depleted prior to sequencing by hybridisation-based methods; an alternative approach is to deplete reads arising from Hgb RNA bioinformatically. In the present study, we compared the impact of these two approaches on the outcome of differential gene expression analysis performed using RNA-seq data from 58 human tuberculosis (TB) patient or contact whole blood samples-29 globin kit-depleted and 29 matched non-depleted-a subset of which were taken at TB diagnosis and at six months post-TB treatment from the same patient. Bioinformatic depletion of Hgb genes from the non-depleted samples (bioinformatic-depleted) substantially reduced library sizes (median = 57.24%) and fewer long non-coding, micro, small nuclear and small nucleolar RNAs were captured in these libraries. Profiling published TB gene signatures across all samples revealed inferior correlation between kit-depleted and bioinformatic-depleted pairs when the proportion of reads mapping to Hgb genes was higher in the non-depleted sample, particularly at the TB diagnosis time point. A set of putative "globin-fingerprint" genes were identified by directly comparing kit-depleted and bioinformatic-depleted samples at each timepoint. Two TB treatment response signatures were also shown to have decreased differential performance when comparing samples at TB diagnosis to six months post-TB treatment when profiled on the bioinformatic-depleted samples compared with their kit-depleted counterparts. These results demonstrate that failure to deplete Hgb RNA prior to sequencing has a negative impact on the sensitivity to detect disease-relevant gene expression changes even when bioinformatic removal is performed.

A global core outcome measurement set for snakebite clinical trials.

Snakebite clinical trials have often used heterogeneous outcome measures and there is an urgent need for standardisation. A globally representative group of key stakeholders came together to reach consensus on a globally relevant set of core outcome measurements. Outcome domains and outcome measurement instruments were identified through searching the literature and a systematic review of snakebite clinical trials. Outcome domains were shortlisted by use of a questionnaire and consensus was reached among stakeholders and the patient group through facilitated discussions and voting. Five universal core outcome measures should be included in all future snakebite clinical trials-mortality, WHO disability assessment scale, patient-specific functional scale, acute allergic reaction by Brown criteria, and serum sickness by formal criteria. Additional syndrome-specific core outcome measures should be used depending on the biting species. This core outcome measurement set provides global standardisation, supports the priorities of patients and clinicians, enables meta-analysis, and is appropriate for use in low-income and middle-income settings.

Beyond latent and active tuberculosis: a scoping review of conceptual frameworks.

There is growing recognition that tuberculosis (TB) infection and disease exists as a spectrum of states beyond the current binary classification of latent and active TB. Our aim was to systematically map and synthesize published conceptual frameworks for TB states. We searched MEDLINE, Embase and EMcare for review articles from 1946 to September 2023. We included 40 articles that explicitly described greater than two states for TB. We identified that terminology, definitions and diagnostic criteria for additional TB states within these articles were inconsistent. Eight broad conceptual themes were identified that were used to categorize TB states: State 0: Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) elimination with innate immune response (n = 25/40, 63%); State I: Mtb elimination by acquired immune response (n = 31/40, 78%); State II: Mtb infection not eliminated but controlled (n = 37/40, 93%); State III: Mtb infection not controlled (n = 24/40, 60%); State IV: bacteriologically positive without symptoms (n = 26/40, 65%); State V: signs or symptoms associated with TB (n = 39/40, 98%); State VI: severe or disseminated TB disease (n = 11/40, 28%); and State VII: previous history of TB (n = 5/40, 13%). Consensus on a non-binary framework that includes additional TB states is required to standardize scientific communication and to inform advancements in research, clinical and public health practice.

"It's too hard" - the management of latent TB in under-served populations in the UK: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: UK national guidance recommends systematic screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in under-served populations, including people experiencing homelessness and people who use drugs. This is not routinely implemented in the UK, and the reasons for this policy-practice mismatch remain underexplored. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 19 healthcare professionals from across the UK. Participants were recruited using purposive sampling and snowballing, identifying individuals with excellent knowledge of their regions practice and policy of LTBI management. The interviews were conducted online, and were audio recorded, with transcripts thematically analysed using a two-stage inductive coding process to explore perceived barriers and enablers to LTBI screening. RESULTS: Most participants had previous experience managing LTBI in under-served populations, but none were conducting systematic screening as per national guidance. We identified service provision challenges and low prioritisation of LTBI as the key explanatory themes driving this policy-practice mismatch. Lack of resource, and the complexity of clinical decision making were two key service level barriers. System and service inertia, and lack of cost effectiveness evidence led to LTBI being deprioritised. Service integration and promotion of WHO targets for TB elimination were highlighted as potential solutions. CONCLUSION: Integrating LTBI testing and treatment with existing health services for under-served populations could improve feasibility and efficacy. Promotion of UK TB elimination goals and generation of regional evidence to support commissioning for LTBI care is vital. Without such a multi-pronged approach inertia is likely to persist and the zeitgeist will remain: "it's too hard".

Rethinking intercurrent events in defining estimands for tuberculosis trials.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Tuberculosis remains one of the leading causes of death from an infectious disease globally. Both choices of outcome definitions and approaches to handling events happening post-randomisation can change the treatment effect being estimated, but these are often inconsistently described, thus inhibiting clear interpretation and comparison across trials. METHODS: Starting from the ICH E9(R1) addendum's definition of an estimand, we use our experience of conducting large Phase III tuberculosis treatment trials and our understanding of the estimand framework to identify the key decisions regarding how different event types are handled in the primary outcome definition, and the important points that should be considered in making such decisions. A key issue is the handling of intercurrent (i.e. post-randomisation) events (ICEs) which affect interpretation of or preclude measurement of the intended final outcome. We consider common ICEs including treatment changes and treatment extension, poor adherence to randomised treatment, re-infection with a new strain of tuberculosis which is different from the original infection, and death. We use two completed tuberculosis trials (REMoxTB and STREAM Stage 1) as illustrative examples. These trials tested non-inferiority of new tuberculosis treatment regimens versus a control regimen. The primary outcome was a binary composite endpoint, 'favourable' or 'unfavourable', which was constructed from several components. RESULTS: We propose the following improvements in handling the above-mentioned ICEs and loss to follow-up (a post-randomisation event that is not in itself an ICE). First, changes to allocated regimens should not necessarily be viewed as an unfavourable outcome; from the patient perspective, the potential harms associated with a change in the regimen should instead be directly quantified. Second, handling poor adherence to randomised treatment using a per-protocol analysis does not necessarily target a clear estimand; instead, it would be desirable to develop ways to estimate the treatment effects more relevant to programmatic settings. Third, re-infection with a new strain of tuberculosis could be handled with different strategies, depending on whether the outcome of interest is the ability to attain culture negativity from infection with any strain of tuberculosis, or specifically the presenting strain of tuberculosis. Fourth, where possible, death could be separated into tuberculosis-related and non-tuberculosis-related and handled using appropriate strategies. Finally, although some losses to follow-up would result in early treatment discontinuation, patients lost to follow-up before the end of the trial should not always be classified as having an unfavourable outcome. Instead, loss to follow-up should be separated from not completing the treatment, which is an ICE and may be considered as an unfavourable outcome. CONCLUSION: The estimand framework clarifies many issues in tuberculosis trials but also challenges trialists to justify and improve their outcome definitions. Future trialists should consider all the above points in defining their outcomes.

Combining factorial and multi-arm multi-stage platform designs to evaluate multiple interventions efficiently.

BACKGROUND: Factorial designs and multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) platform designs have many advantages, but the practical advantages and disadvantages of combining the two designs have not been explored. METHODS: We propose practical methods for a combined design within the platform trial paradigm where some interventions are not expected to interact and could be given together. RESULTS: We describe the combined design and suggest diagrams that can be used to represent it. Many properties are common both to standard factorial designs, including the need to consider interactions between interventions and the impact of intervention efficacy on power of other comparisons, and to standard multi-arm multi-stage designs, including the need to pre-specify procedures for starting and stopping intervention comparisons. We also identify some specific features of the factorial-MAMS design: timing of interim and final analyses should be determined by calendar time or total observed events; some non-factorial modifications may be useful; eligibility criteria should be broad enough to include any patient eligible for any part of the randomisation; stratified randomisation may conveniently be performed sequentially; and analysis requires special care to use only concurrent controls. CONCLUSION: A combined factorial-MAMS design can combine the efficiencies of factorial trials and multi-arm multi-stage platform trials. It allows us to address multiple research questions under one protocol and to test multiple new treatment options, which is particularly important when facing a new emergent infection such as COVID-19.

Mind the gap - Managing tuberculosis across the disease spectrum.

We currently have a binomial approach to managing tuberculosis. Those with active disease, ideally confirmed microbiologically, are treated with a standard 6-month, multi-drug regimen and those with latent infection and no evidence of disease with shorter, one or two drug regimens. Clinicians frequently encounter patients that fall between these two management pathways with some but not all features of disease and this will occur more often with the increasing emphasis on chest X-ray-based systematic screening. The view of tuberculosis as a spectrum of disease states is being increasingly recognised and is leading to new diagnostic approaches for early disease. However, the 6-month regimen for treating disease was driven by the duration required to treat the most extensive forms of pulmonary TB and shorter durations appear sufficient for less extensive disease. It is time undertake clinical trials to better define the optimal treatment for tuberculosis across the disease spectrum.

Clinical outcomes and outcome measurement tools reported in randomised controlled trials of treatment for snakebite envenoming: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Snakebite is a priority neglected tropical disease and causes a range of complications that vary depending on the snake species. Randomised clinical trials have used varied outcome measures that do not allow results to be compared or combined. In accordance with the Core Outcomes Measurements in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) initiative, this systematic review aims to support the development of a globally relevant core outcome set for snakebite. METHODS: All randomised controlled trials, secondary analyses of randomised controlled trials and study protocols investigating the efficacy of therapeutics for human snakebite envenoming were eligible for inclusion. Study screening and data extraction were conducted in duplicate by two independent reviewers. All primary and secondary outcome measures were extracted and compiled, as were adverse event outcome measures. Similar outcome measures were grouped into domains. The study was prospectively registered with PROSPERO: CRD42020196160. RESULTS: This systematic review included 43 randomised controlled trials, two secondary analyses and 13 study protocols. A total of 382 outcome measures were extracted and, after duplicates were merged, there were 153 unique outcomes. The most frequently used outcome domain ('venom antigenaemia') was included in less than one third of the studies. The unique outcomes were classified into 60 outcome domains. Patient-centred outcomes were used in only three of the studies. DISCUSSION: Significant heterogeneity in outcome measures exists in snakebite clinical trials. Consensus is needed to select outcome measures that are valid, reliable, patient-centred and feasible. The results of this systematic review strongly support the development of a core outcome set for use in snakebite clinical trials.