Urban environmental clustering to assess the spatial dynamics of Aedes aegypti breeding sites.

The identification of Aedes aegypti breeding hotspots in urban areas is crucial for the rational design of control strategies against this disease vector. Remote sensing and geographic information systems offer valuable tools for mapping habitat suitability of a given area. However, predicting species occurrences by means of probability distribution maps based on transversal entomological surveys has limited utility for local authorities. The aim of the present study was to carefully examine the temporal evolution of the number of houses infested with immature stages of Ae. aegypti in each individual neighbourhood and to explore the value of producing environmental clusters generated with information provided by remotely sensed variables to explain the observed differential temporal behaviour. Entomological surveys were conducted between 2011 and 2013 throughout a small town in Argentina registering the number of houses with containers harbouring immature stages of Ae. aegypti. A SPOT 5 satellite image was used to obtain land cover variables, which were subsequently submitted to k-means partitioning for grouping neighbourhoods into four environmental clusters. Finally, a generalized linear model was fitted showing that the number of houses found to be positive for Ae. aegypti was jointly affected by the interaction between environmental clusters and the year of sampling. Moreover, the number of positive houses in one of the clusters was 9.5 times higher (P<0.005, SE=0.37) in 2013 than in 2012, but we did not observe any other statistically significant increases.

Spatial pattern evolution of Aedes aegypti breeding sites in an Argentinean city without a dengue vector control programme.

The main objective of this study was to obtain and analyse the space-time dynamics of Aedes aegypti breeding sites in Clorinda City, Formosa Province, Argentina coupled with landscape analysis using the maximum entropy approach in order to generate a dengue vector niche model. In urban areas, without vector control activities, 12 entomologic (larval) samplings were performed during three years (October 2011 to October 2014). The entomologic surveillance area represented 16,511 houses. Predictive models for Aedes distribution were developed using vector breeding abundance data, density analysis, clustering and geoprocessing techniques coupled with Earth observation satellite data. The spatial analysis showed a vector spatial distribution pattern with clusters of high density in the central region of Clorinda with a well-defined high-risk area in the western part of the city. It also showed a differential temporal behaviour among different areas, which could have implications for risk models and control strategies at the urban scale. The niche model obtained for Ae. aegypti, based on only one year of field data, showed that 85.8% of the distribution of breeding sites is explained by the percentage of water supply (48.2%), urban distribution (33.2%), and the percentage of urban coverage (4.4%). The consequences for the development of control strategies are discussed with reference to the results obtained using distribution maps based on environmental variables.

Spatial analysis of Aedes aegypti immatures in Northern Argentina: clusters and temporal instability.

The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of Aedes aegypti immatures based on four entomological surveys that inspected over 6000 households in a large neighborhood of the city of Clorinda between 2007 and 2008. Global and local spatial point pattern analyses of immature presence or absence, habitat quality (estimated using a previously obtained statistical model) and pupal production were performed. Global analyses showed aggregation of both infestation and habitat quality up to 10 times bigger than previously described, ranging from 150 to 400m between surveys. Pupal production was also clustered but at smaller scales than infestation presence/absence. The location of the clusters was temporally unstable between surveys. There was no spatial structure related to the control strategy; lots treated with temephos and lots uninspected (i.e., closed or refusing) were randomly distributed. These results suggest a combination of exogenous (the aggregation of better quality habitats) and endogenous (dispersal) processes explaining the observed patterns of larger-scale infestation. A spatial targeting strategy at the neighborhood scale would not be as cost-effective in Clorinda as in other sites where stable smaller-scale clusters permit the identification of key premises.

Water use practices limit the effectiveness of a temephos-based Aedes aegypti larval control program in Northern Argentina.

BACKGROUND: A five-year citywide control program based on regular application of temephos significantly reduced Aedes aegypti larval indices but failed to maintain them below target levels in Clorinda, northern Argentina. Incomplete surveillance coverage and reduced residuality of temephos were held as the main putative causes limiting effectiveness of control actions. METHODOLOGY: The duration of temephos residual effects in household-owned water-holding tanks (the most productive container type and main target for control) was estimated prospectively in two trials. Temephos was applied using spoons or inside perforated small zip-lock bags. Water samples from the study tanks (including positive and negative controls) were collected weekly and subjected to larval mortality bioassays. Water turnover was estimated quantitatively by adding sodium chloride to the study tanks and measuring its dilution 48 hs later. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The median duration of residual effects of temephos applied using spoons (2.4 weeks) was significantly lower than with zip-lock bags (3.4 weeks), and widely heterogeneous between tanks. Generalized estimating equations models showed that bioassay larval mortality was strongly affected by water type and type of temephos application depending on water type. Water type and water turnover were highly significantly associated. Tanks filled with piped water had high turnover rates and short-lasting residual effects, whereas tanks filled with rain water showed the opposite pattern. On average, larval infestations reappeared nine weeks post-treatment and seven weeks after estimated loss of residuality. CONCLUSIONS: Temephos residuality in the field was much shorter and more variable than expected. The main factor limiting temephos residuality was fast water turnover, caused by householders' practice of refilling tanks overnight to counteract the intermittence of the local water supply. Limited field residuality of temephos accounts in part for the inability of the larval control program to further reduce infestation levels with a treatment cycle period of 3 or 4 months.