Distribution, Invasion History, and Ecology of Non-native Pine Bark Beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) in Southern South America.

The growth of international trade, coupled with an expansion of large-scale pine plantations in South America during the second half of the twentieth century, has significantly increased the opportunities for the invasion of forest insects. Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) are a large and diverse group of insects, commonly recognized as one of the most important tree mortality agents in coniferous forests worldwide and an important group among invasive forest species. In this study, we combined data from field sampling with published records of established non-native pine bark beetles, to describe their distribution and invasion history in pine plantations across southern South America, reviewing the available information on their phenology and host range. We obtained records of established populations of six Eurasian species distributed in two major regions: the southwest region comprises plantations in Chile and the Argentine Patagonia, with four bark beetle species: Hylastes ater, Hylastes linearis, Hylurgus ligniperda, and Orthotomicus laricis; the northeastern zone includes northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, and includes three bark beetle species: Cyrtogenius luteus, H. ligniperda, and O. erosus. The establishment of non-native populations across the study area began in the 1950s, and from the 1980s onwards, there has been an exponential increase in introductions. We predict that several of these species will continue spreading across South America and that new species will continue arriving. We highlight the importance of international collaboration for early detection and management of non-native pine bark beetles.

1000 years of population, warfare, and climate change in pre-Columbian societies of the Central Andes.

Different Andean societies underwent processes of expansion and collapse during propitious or adverse climate conditions, resource boost or depletion along with population variations. Previous studies have emphasized that demographic collapses of polities in the Central Andes Area were triggered by warfare and the negative impacts of fluctuating climate (droughts) on crop productivity. Nevertheless, the interactions between climatic variability, demography and warfare have been less thoroughly evaluated. We develop population dynamic models to test feedback relationships between population growth, climate change and warfare in the Central Andes, where considerable regional hydroclimate variations have occurred over a millennium. Through population models, we found out that the rise and demise of social polities in the northern coast of the Central Andes appear to be a consequence of climate change. In contrast, for the highlands of Peru and the Titicaca basin, population models suggest that warfare intensity has a negative effect on population growth rates.

Can suitability indices predict plant growth in the invaded range? The case of Acacias species.

Introduction: Forestry in many parts of the world depends on exotic species, making this industry a source of invasions in some countries. Among others, plantations of the genus Pinus, Eucalyptus, Acacia, Populus, and Pseudotsuga underpin the forestry industry and are a vital component of many countries economies. Among woody plants, the cosmopolitan genus Acacia includes some of the most commonly planted trees worldwide. In order to prevent, manage and control invasive plant species, one of the most used tools is species distribution models. The output of these models can also be used to obtain information about population characteristics, such as spatial abundance patterns or species performance. Although ecological theory suggests a direct link between fitness and suitability, this link is often absent. The reasons behind the lack of this relationship are multiple. Chile is one of the countries where Acacia species, in particular, A. dealbata and A. melanoxylon, have become invaders. Methods: Here, we used climatic and edaphic variables to predict thepotentially suitable habitats for A. dealbata and A. melanoxylon in continental Chile and evaluate if the suitability indices obtained from these models are associated with the observed performance of the trees along the country. Results: Our models show that variable importance showed significant similarities between the variables that characterize each species' niche. However, despite the high accuracy of our models, we did not observe an association between suitability and tree growth. Discussion: This disconnection between suitability and performance can result from multiple causes, from structural limitations, like the lack of biotic interactions in the models, to methodological issues, like the usefulness of the performance metric used. Whatever the scenario, our results suggest that plans to control invasive species should be cautious in assuming this relationship in their design and consider other indicators such as species establishment success.

Socioeconomic and environmental contexts of suicidal rates in a latitudinal gradient: Understanding interactions to inform public health interventions.

Suicide results from complex interactions between biological, psychological, and socioeconomic factors. At the population level, the study of suicide rates and their environmental and social determinants allows us to disentangle some of these complexities and provides support for policy design and preventive actions. In this study we aim to evaluate the associations between environmental and socioeconomic factors and demographically stratified suicide rates on large temporal and spatial scales. Our dataset contains information about yearly suicides rates by sex and age from 2000 through 2017 along a 4000 km latitudinal gradient. We used zero-inflated negative binomial models to evaluate the spatio-temporal influence of each environmental and socioeconomic variable on suicide rates at each sex/age combination. Overall, we found differential patterns of associations between suicide rates and explanatory variables by age and sex. Suicide rates in men increases in middle and high latitude regions and intermediate age classes. For adolescent and adult women, we found a similar pattern with an increase in suicide rates at middle and high latitudes. Sex differences measured by the male/female suicide ratio shows a marked increase with age. We found that cloudiness has a positive effect on suicide rates in both men and women 24 years old or younger. Regional poverty shows a major impact on men in age classes above 35 years old, an effect that was absent in women. Alcohol and marijuana consumption showed no significant effect sizes. Our findings support high spatio-temporal variability in suicide rates in interaction with extrinsic factors. Several strong differential impacts of environmental and socioeconomic variables on suicide rates depending on sex and age were detected. These results suggest that the design of public policies and interventions to reduce suicide prevalence need to consider the local social and environmental contexts of target populations.

Spatial and temporal shift in the factors affecting the population dynamics of Calanus copepods in the North Sea.

The swap in abundance between two Calanus species in the North Sea during the 1980s constitutes a quintessential example of regime shift, with important ecosystemic and economic repercussions because these copepods constitute a major component of the diet of larval and juvenile cods. It is hypothesized that this transition was driven by gradual changes in primary productivity, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea surface temperatures (SST), and yet how these factors contribute to the population dynamics of these two species and the overall regime shift remains unclear. Here, we combine a highly resolved and spatially structured longitudinal dataset with population dynamics theory-based models to obtain a thorough and more detailed description of populations' responses to the regime shift observed in the North Sea. Our analyses highlight that this transition exhibits a clear spatial structure and involved a decoupling between the dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus and the NAO in western regions and between Calanus helgolandicus and SST in the eastern regions of the North Sea. Consequently, the observed switch in abundance between these species reflects the interaction between species-specific attributes, a well-defined spatial structure with a marked east-west axis and a decoupling between the ecological drivers and Calanus population dynamics following the shift. Succinctly, we suspect that higher water temperatures have favored C. helgolandicus and resulted in restrictive conditions for C. finmarchicus, eventually overshadowing the effects of NAO detected in historical records. Overall, our study illustrates how population dynamics theory can be successfully employed to disentangle the complex and multifactorial nature of a regime shift in response to gradually changing environmental conditions.

Extinction risk assessment of a Patagonian ungulate using population dynamics models under climate change scenarios.

Climate change affects population cycles of several species, threatening biodiversity. However, there are few long-term studies on species with conservation issues and restricted distributions. Huemul is a deer endemic to the southern Andes in South America and it is considered endangered mostly due to a 50% reduction of its distribution over the last 500 years. To assess environmental variables potentially affecting huemul population viability and the impact of climate change, we developed population dynamics models. We used a 14-year survey data from Bernardo O'Higgins National Park, coastal Chilean Patagonia. We used Ricker models considering winter and spring temperatures and precipitation as variables influencing huemul population dynamics. We used the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to select models with the greatest predictive power. The two best models (ΔBIC < 2) included winter temperature and density-dependence population growth drivers. The best model considered a lateral effect, where winter temperature influences carrying capacity and the second best a vertical effect with winter temperature influencing Rmax and carrying capacity. Population viability was evaluated using those models, projecting them over a 100-year period: (a) under current conditions and (b) under conditions estimated by Global Climate Models for 2050 and 2070. The extinction risk and quasi-extinction were estimated for this population considering two critical huemul abundance levels (15 and 30 individuals) for persistence. The population is currently in a quasi-extinction process, with extinction probabilities increasing with climate change. These results are crucial for conservation of species like huemul that have low densities and are threatened by climate change.

Integrating species and interactions into similarity metrics: a graph theory-based approach to understanding community similarity.

Community similarity is often assessed through similarities in species occurrences and abundances (i.e., compositional similarity) or through the distribution of species interactions (i.e., interaction similarity). Unfortunately, the joint empirical evaluation of both is still a challenge. Here, we analyze community similarity in ecological systems in order to evaluate the extent to which indices based exclusively on species composition differ from those that incorporate species interactions. Borrowing tools from graph theory, we compared the classic Jaccard index with the graph edit distance (GED), a metric that allowed us to combine species composition and interactions. We found that similarity measures computed using only taxonomic composition could differ strongly from those that include composition and interactions. We conclude that new indices that incorporate community features beyond composition will be more robust for assessing similitude between natural systems than those purely based on species occurrences. Our results have therefore important conceptual and practical consequences for the analysis of ecological communities.

Protected areas' effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range. METHODS: To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)-RCP4.5 and RCP6.0. RESULTS: Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86-60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57-64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57-34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79-31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios. DISCUSSION: Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.

Size matters: point pattern analysis biases the estimation of spatial properties of stomata distribution.

Stomata distribution is an example of biological patterning. Formal methods used to study stomata patterning are generally based on point-pattern analysis, which assumes that stomata are points and ignores the constraints imposed by size on the placement of neighbors. The inclusion of size in the analysis requires the use of a null model based on finite-size object geometry. In this study, we compare the results obtained by analyzing samples from several species using point and disc null models. The results show that depending on the null model used, there was a 20% reduction in the number of samples classified as uniform; these results suggest that stomata patterning is not as general as currently reported. Some samples changed drastically from being classified as uniform to being classified as clustered. In samples of Arabidopsis thaliana, only the disc model identified clustering at high densities of stomata. This reinforces the importance of selecting an appropriate null model to avoid incorrect inferences about underlying biological mechanisms. Based on the results gathered here, we encourage researchers to abandon point-pattern analysis when studying stomata patterning; more realistic conclusions can be drawn from finite-size object analysis.

Ectotherms in Variable Thermal Landscapes: A Physiological Evaluation of the Invasive Potential of Fruit Flies Species.

Climate change and biological invasions pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance may also impact native and invasive organisms, although differentially. We assessed the combined effects of the mean and the variance of temperature on the expression of heat shock protein (hsp90) in adults of the invasive fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster and the native Drosophila gaucha in Mediterranean habitats of central Chile. We observed that, under these experimental conditions, hsp90 mRNA expression was higher in the invasive species but absent in the native one. Apparently, the biogeographic origin and niche conservatisms are playing a role in the heat shock response of these species under different putative scenarios of climate change. We suggest that in order to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impact of climate change and biological invasions, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of climatic variables, as well as the evolutionary original conditions of the native and invasive species.

Correspondence between the habitat of the threatened pudú (Cervidae) and the national protected-area system of Chile.

BACKGROUND: Currently, many species are facing serious conservation problems due to habitat loss. The impact of the potential loss of biodiversity associated with habitat loss is difficult to measure. This is particularly the case with inconspicuous species such as the threatened pudú (Pudu puda), an endemic Cervidae of temperate forests of Chile and Argentina. To evaluate the effectiveness of the Chilean protected-area system in protecting the habitat of the pudú, we measured the congruence between this specie's potential distribution and the geographical area occupied by the protected areas in central and southern Chile. The measurements of congruency were made using the Maxent modeling method. RESULTS: The potential habitat of the pudú was found to be poorly represented in the system (3-8%) and even the most suitable areas for the species are not currenly protected. According to these results, the protected area network cannot be considered as a key component of the conservation strategy for this species. CONCLUSIONS: The results presented here also serve as a guide for the reevaluation of current pudú conservation strategies, for the design of new field studies to detect the presence of this species in human-disturbed areas or remaining patches of native forest, and for the implementation of corridors to maximize the success of conservation efforts.

Whooping cough dynamics in Chile (1932-2010): disease temporal fluctuations across a north-south gradient.

BACKGROUND: The spatial-temporal dynamics of Bordetella pertussis remains as a highly interesting case in infectious disease epidemiology. Despite large-scale vaccination programs in place for over 50 years around the world, frequent outbreaks are still reported in many countries. METHODS: Here, we use annual time series of pertussis incidence from the thirteen different regions of Chile (1952-2010) to study the spatial-temporal dynamics of Pertussis. The period 1975-1995 was characterized by a strong 4 year cycle, while the last two decades of the study period (1990-2010) were characterized by disease resurgence without significant periodic patterns. RESULTS: During the first decades, differences in periodic patterns across regions can be explained by the differences in susceptible recruitment. The observed shift in periodicity from the period 1952-1974 to the period 1975-1995 across regions was relatively well predicted by the susceptible recruitment and population size. However, data on vaccination rates was not taken into account in this study. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight how demography and population size have interacted with the immunization program in shaping periodicity along a unique latitudinal gradient. Widespread B. pertussis vaccination appears to lead to longer periodic dynamics, which is line with a reduction in B. pertussis transmission, but our findings indicate that regions characterized by both low birth rate and population size decreased in periodicity following immunization efforts.

Combining environmental suitability and population abundances to evaluate the invasive potential of the tunicate Ciona intestinalis along the temperate South American coast.

The tunicate Ciona intestinalis is an opportunistic invader with high potential for causing economic losses in aquaculture centers. Recent phylogenetic and population genetic analysis support the existence of a genetic complex described as C. intestinalis with two main dominant species (sp A and B) occurring worldwide. In Chile, the species has been observed around 30°S of latitude, but no official reports exist for the presence of C. intestinalis in southern regions (above 40°S), where most of the mollusk aquaculture centers are located. Here, we used occurrences from multiple invaded regions and extensive field sampling to model and validate the environmental conditions that allow the species to persist and to find the geographic areas with the most suitable environmental conditions for the spread of C. intestinalis in the Chilean coast. By studying the potential expansion of C. intestinalis southward in the Chilean Coast, we aimed to provide valuable information that might help the development of control plans before the species becomes a significant problem, especially above 40°S. Our results highlight that, by using portions of the habitat that are apparently distinguishable, the species seem to be not only genetically distinct, but ecologically distinct as well. The two regional models fitted for sp A and for sp B showed disagreement on which sections of Chilean coastline are considered more suitable for these species. While the model for sp A identifies moderately to highly suitable areas between 30° and 40°S, the model for sp B classifies the areas around 45°S as the most appropriate. Data from field sampling show a positive linear relationship between density of C. intestinalis and the index of suitability for sp A in aquaculture centers. Understanding the relation of the distinct species with the surrounding environment provided valuable insights about probable routes of dispersion in Chile, especially into those areas considered suitable for aquaculture activities but where the species has not yet been recorded. We discuss the implications of our findings as a useful tool to anticipate the invasion of such harmful invasive species with regard to the most relevant environmental variables.

Bird Richness and Abundance in Response to Urban Form in a Latin American City: Valdivia, Chile as a Case Study.

There is mounting evidence that urban areas influence biodiversity. Generalizations however require that multiple urban areas on multiple continents be examined. Here we evaluated the role of urban areas on avian diversity for a South American city, allowing us to examine the effects of urban features common worldwide, using the city of Valdivia, Chile as case study. We assessed the number of birds and their relative abundance in 152 grid cells of equal size (250 m2) distributed across the city. We estimated nine independent variables: land cover diversity (DC), building density (BD), impervious surface (IS),municipal green space (MG),non-municipal green space (NG), domestic garden space (DG), distance to the periphery (DP), social welfare index (SW), and vegetation diversity (RV). Impervious surface represent 41.8% of the study area, while municipal green, non-municipal green and domestic garden represent 11.6%, 23.6% and 16% of the non- man made surface. Exotic vegetation species represent 74.6% of the total species identified across the city. We found 32 bird species, all native with the exception of House Sparrow and Rock Pigeon. The most common species were House Sparrow and Chilean Swallow. Total bird richness responds negatively to IS and MG, while native bird richness responds positively to NG and negatively to BD, IS DG and, RV. Total abundance increase in areas with higher values of DC and BD, and decrease in areas of higher values of IS, SW and VR. Native bird abundance responds positively to NG and negatively to BD, IS MG, DG and RV. Our results suggest that not all the general patterns described in previous studies, conducted mainly in the USA, Europe, and Australia, can be applied to Latin American cities, having important implications for urban planning. Conservation efforts should focus on non-municipal areas, which harbor higher bird diversity, while municipal green areas need to be improved to include elements that can enhance habitat quality for birds and other species. These findings are relevant for urban planning in where both types of green space need to be considered, especially non-municipal green areas, which includes wetlands, today critically threatened by urban development.

Impact of global warming at the range margins: phenotypic plasticity and behavioral thermoregulation will buffer an endemic amphibian.

When dispersal is not an option to evade warming temperatures, compensation through behavior, plasticity, or evolutionary adaptation is essential to prevent extinction. In this work, we evaluated whether there is physiological plasticity in the thermal performance curve (TPC) of maximum jumping speed in individuals acclimated to current and projected temperatures and whether there is an opportunity for behavioral thermoregulation in the desert landscape where inhabits the northernmost population of the endemic frog Pleurodema thaul. Our results indicate that individuals acclimated to 20°C and 25°C increased the breath of their TPCs by shifting their upper limits with respect to when they were acclimated at 10°C. In addition, even when dispersal is not possible for this population, the landscape is heterogeneous enough to offer opportunities for behavioral thermoregulation. In particular, under current climatic conditions, behavioral thermoregulation is not compulsory as available operative temperatures are encompassed within the population TPC limits. However, for severe projected temperatures under climate change, behavioral thermoregulation will be required in the sunny patches. In overall, our results suggest that this population of Pleurodema thaul will be able to endure the worst projected scenario of climate warming as it has not only the physiological capacities but also the environmental opportunities to regulate its body temperature behaviorally.

Evaluating habitat suitability for the establishment of Monochamus spp. through climate-based niche modeling.

Pine sawyer beetle species of the genus Monochamus are vectors of the nematode pest Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The introduction of these species into new habitats is a constant threat for those regions where the forestry industry depends on conifers, and especially on species of Pinus. To obtain information about the potential risk of establishment of these insects in Chile, we performed climate-based niche modeling using data for five North American and four Eurasian Monochamus species using a Maxent approach. The most important variables that account for current distribution of these species are total annual precipitation and annual and seasonal average temperatures, with some differences between North American and Eurasian species. Projections of potential geographic distribution in Chile show that all species could occupy at least 37% of the area between 30° and 53°S, where industrial plantations of P. radiata are concentrated. Our results indicated that Chile seems more suitable for Eurasian than for North American species.

Differential responses to thermal variation between fitness metrics.

Temperature is a major factor affecting population abundance and individual performance. Net reproductive rate (R0) and intrinsic rate of increase (r) differ in their response to different temperature regimes, and much of the difference is mediated by generation time (Tg). Here, we evaluate the effects of thermal mean and variability on R0, r and Tg, at four population densities in Drosophila melanogaster. The results show that R0, r and Tg present differential responses to thermal variation. Although temperature effects on R0 and Tg are non-linear, r response was negligible. R0 and Tg comprise a generational time scale, while r is at a chronological time scale. Thus, we argue that individuals growing under different thermal environments perform similarly on a chronological scale, but differently on a generational scale.

A simultaneous test of synchrony causal factors in muskrat and mink fur returns at different scales across Canada.

BACKGROUND: Synchrony among populations has been attributed to three major hypotheses: dispersal, the Moran effect, and trophic-level interactions. Unfortunately, simultaneous testing of these hypotheses demands complete and detailed data, which are scarce for ecological systems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Hudson's Bay Company data on mink and muskrat fur returns in Canada represent an excellent opportunity to test these hypotheses because of the detailed spatial and temporal data from this predator-prey system. Using structural equation modelling, support for each hypothesis was evaluated at two spatial scales: across Canada and dividing the country into three regions longitudinally. Our results showed that at both scales mink synchrony is a major factor determining muskrat synchrony, supporting the hypothesis of trophic-level interactions, but the influence of winter precipitation synchrony is also important in eastern Canada. Moreover, mink synchrony is influenced principally by winter precipitation synchrony at the level of all Canada (Moran effect), but by distance at regional level, which might suggest some influence of dispersal at this level. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our result is one of the few reports of synchrony mediated by trophic-level interactions, highlighting the importance of evaluation of scale effects in population synchrony studies.

The mean and variance of environmental temperature interact to determine physiological tolerance and fitness.

Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the combined effects of the mean and variance of temperature on thermal tolerances, organismal survival, and population growth in Drosophila melanogaster. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that responses to thermal variation (±0° or ±5°C) would depend on the mean temperature (17° or 24°C). Consistent with our prediction, thermal variation enhanced the rate of population growth (r(max)) at a low mean temperature but depressed this rate at a high mean temperature. The interactive effect on fitness occurred despite the fact that flies improved their heat and cold tolerances through acclimation to thermal conditions. Flies exposed to a high mean and a high variance of temperature recovered from heat coma faster and survived heat exposure better than did flies that developed at other conditions. Relatively high survival following heat exposure was associated with low survival following cold exposure. Recovery from chill coma was affected primarily by the mean temperature; flies acclimated to a low mean temperature recovered much faster than did flies acclimated to a high mean temperature. To develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean environmental temperature and the variance of environmental temperature.