ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: We recommend the use of models to estimate mortality hospital risk in cardiac surgery (CC). The aim of this study was to validate a risk stratification system, widely used as the EuroSCORE (ES), in our institution. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the records of patients undergoing CC consecutively between January 2006 and November 2008. The ES was calculated retrospectively based on data from medical records. Mortality was considered until the time of discharge. In all patients, the ES was calculated by logistic and additive. To study the validity of the model, we analyzed their ability to calibration and discrimination through the goodness of fit test of Hosmer and Lemeshow and area under the ROC curve, respectively. RESULTS: 153 patients were included, mean age 64.1 ± 9.5 years, 77.8% men. The CRM was 60.8%, 24.8% and 14.4% valvular surgery combined (bypass + valve). Overall mortality was 3.9%. The area under the curve of the logistic model was 0.87 and the Hosmer Lemeshow test was 0.84. The area under the curve of the additive model was 0.86 and the Hosmer Lemeshow test was p = 0.89. A score greater than 7 points is additive had a sensitivity of 66% and 91,5% specificity for predicting hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: The ES is a useful model and can be used to estimate the risk of hospital mortality in CC in the city of Cordoba.
Subject(s)
Cardiac Surgical Procedures/mortality , Risk Assessment/methods , Area Under Curve , Argentina , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Retrospective Studies , Sensitivity and SpecificityABSTRACT
Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) are frequent cause of hospitalization, being responsible for 10-15% of infarcts or deaths per year. The study was designed to analyze 6 months follow-up of cardiovascular events as well as to validate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for patients hospitalized for NSTE-ACS. We retrospectively analyzed patients admitted with NSTE-ACS. Telephone follow-up were performed at 6 month. Combination of death, re-admission for acute coronary syndrome and revascularization were considered as end point. Two hundred and four patients were included for the analysis. There were 70.2% males, with a mean age of 64.5 +/- 11.8 years. After the initial evaluation, we diagnosed unstable angina in 34.6% of cases, MI in 38.9% of cases, and 26.4% of patients were categorized as "non coronary chest pain". Applying the TIMI risk score, 52 (25.5%) patients had low risk, 106 (52%) intermediated risk, and 46 (22.5%) high risk. The global mortality was 12.3%. We found a progressively and significant increase in the rate of combined events as the TIMI score increase (p < 0.001). We conclude that in our population, the intermediated and high TIMI risk score was well related to newer cardiovascular events at 6 month follow-up.
Subject(s)
Acute Coronary Syndrome/diagnosis , Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis , Acute Coronary Syndrome/mortality , Biomarkers/blood , Creatine Kinase, MB Form/blood , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Myocardial Infarction/mortality , Predictive Value of Tests , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Troponin T/bloodABSTRACT
Los síndromes coronarios agudos sin elevación del segmento ST (SCA-SST) son causa frecuente de hospitalización, siendo responsables del 10 al 15% de infartos de miocardio (IM) o muertes al año. El objetivo fue evaluar eventos cardiovasculares a 6 meses de seguimiento y validar el score de riesgo TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) en nuestra población. Se analizaron retrospectivamente pacientes con diagnóstico de SCA-SST. Se realizó seguimiento telefónico a los 6 meses del ingreso. Los puntos finales evaluados fueron la combinación de muerte, internación por síndrome coronario agudo y necesidad de revascularización. Se incluyeron 204 pacientes. El 70.2% eran hombres, edad promedio de 64.5 ± 11.8 años. Luego de la evaluación inicial, se hizo diagnóstico de angina inestable en el 34.6%, IM en 38.9% y el 26.4% fueron catalogados como "dolor no coronario". Al aplicar el score de TIMI, 52 (25.5%) pacientes tenían riesgo bajo, 106 (52%) riesgo intermedio, y 46 (22.5%) riesgo alto. La mortalidad global fue 12.6%. Se encontró un incremento progresivo y significativo en la tasa de eventos combinados a medida que aumentaba el score de TIMI (p < 0.001). Concluimos que, en nuestra población, encontramos de gran utilidad al score de riesgo TIMI, ya que los pacientes con score intermedio y alto se correlacionaron con nuevos eventos cardiovasculares a 6 meses de seguimiento.
Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) are frequent cause of hospitalization, being responsible for 10-15% of infarcts or deaths per year. The study was designed to analyze 6 months follow-up of cardiovascular events as well as to validate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for patients hospitalized for NSTE-ACS. We retrospectively analyzed patients admitted with NSTE-ACS. Telephone follow-up were performed at 6 month. Combination of death, re-admission for acute coronary syndrome and revascularization were considered as end point. Two hundred and four patients were included for the analysis. There were 70.2% males, with a mean age of 64.5 ± 11.8 years. After the initial evaluation, we diagnosed unstable angina in 34.6% of cases, MI in 38.9% of cases, and 26.4% of patients were categorized as "non coronary chest pain". Applying the TIMI risk score, 52 (25.5%) patients had low risk, 106 (52%) intermediated risk, and 46 (22.5%) high risk. The global mortality was 12.3%. We found a progressively and significant increase in the rate of combined events as the TIMI score increase (p < 0.001). We conclude that in our population, the intermediated and high TIMI risk score was well related to newer cardiovascular events at 6 month follow-up.
