Cumulative effects of piscivorous colonial waterbirds on juvenile salmonids: A multi predator-prey species evaluation.

We investigated the cumulative effects of predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds on the survival of multiple salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and determined what proportion of all sources of fish mortality (1 -survival) were due to birds in the Columbia River basin, USA. Anadromous juvenile salmonids (smolts) were exposed to predation by Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), double-crested cormorants (Nannopterum auritum), California gulls (Larus californicus), and ring-billed gulls (L. delawarensis), birds known to consume both live and dead fish. Avian consumption and survival probabilities (proportion of available fish consumed or alive) were estimated for steelhead trout (O. mykiss), yearling Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha), sub-yearling Chinook salmon, and sockeye salmon (O. nerka) during out-migration from the lower Snake River to the Pacific Ocean during an 11-year study period (2008-2018). Results indicated that probabilities of avian consumption varied greatly across salmonid populations, bird species, colony location, river reach, and year. Cumulative consumption probabilities (consumption by birds from all colonies combined) were consistently the highest for steelhead, with annual estimates ranging from 0.22 (95% credible interval = 0.20-0.26) to 0.51 (0.43-0.60) of available smolts. The cumulative effects of avian consumption were significantly lower for yearling and sub-yearling Chinook salmon, with consumption probabilities ranging annually from 0.04 (0.02-0.07) to 0.10 (0.07-0.15) and from 0.06 (0.3-0.09) to 0.15 (0.10-0.23), respectively. Avian consumption probabilities for sockeye salmon smolts was generally higher than for Chinook salmon smolts, but lower than for steelhead smolts, ranging annually from 0.08 (0.03-0.22) to 0.25 (0.14-0.44). Although annual consumption probabilities for birds from certain colonies were more than 0.20 of available smolts, probabilities from other colonies were less than 0.01 of available smolts, indicating that not all colonies of birds posed a substantial risk to smolt mortality. Consumption probabilities were lowest for small colonies and for colonies located a considerable distance from the Snake and Columbia rivers. Total mortality attributed to avian consumption was relatively small for Chinook salmon (less than 10%) but was the single greatest source of mortality for steelhead (greater than 50%) in all years evaluated. Results suggest that the potential benefits to salmonid populations of managing birds to reduce smolt mortality would vary widely depending on the salmonid population, the species of bird, and the size and location of the breeding colony.

Measuring the additive effects of predation on prey survival across spatial scales.

The degree to which predation is an additive vs. compensatory source of mortality is fundamental to understanding the effects of predation on prey populations and evaluating the efficacy of predator management actions. In the Columbia River basin, USA, predation by Caspian Terns (Hydroprogne caspia) on U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed juvenile salmonids (smolts; Oncorhynchus spp.) has led to predator management actions to reduce predation; however, the assumption that reduced predation translates into greater salmonid survival, either within the life stage where predation occurs or across their lifetime, has remained untested. To address this critical uncertainty, we analyzed a long-term (2008-2018) mark-recapture-recovery data set of ESA-listed steelhead trout (O. mykiss) that were tagged (n = 78,409) and subsequently exposed to predation during smolt out-migration through multiple river reaches (spatial scales), jointly estimating weekly probabilities of steelhead survival, mortality due to bird predation, and mortality due to other causes. This concurrent estimation across time-stratified cohorts allowed for the direct measurement of the strength, magnitude, and direction of relationships between survival and Caspian Tern predation. Estimates of Tern predation on steelhead were substantial in most years, with cumulative annual estimates ranging from 0.075 (95% creditable interval = 0.058-0.099) to 0.375 (0.290-0.461). Increases in Tern predation probabilities were associated with statistically significant decreases in steelhead survival probabilities in all evaluated years and salmonid life stages (smolt out-migration and smolt-to-adult returns). Results provide novel evidence that predation by Caspian Terns may have been a super-additive source of mortality during the smolt life stage and a partially additive source of mortality to the adult life stage. Annual estimates of the difference between observed survival and baseline survival (i.e., in the absence of Tern predation) ranged from 0.052 (0.017-0.103) to 0.314 (0.172-0.459) during the steelhead smolt life stage and from 0.011 (0.001-0.029) to 0.049 (0.025-0.078) to the adult life stage. The estimated levels of compensation have important implications for predator management actions aimed at increasing the survival of endangered salmonids, and the modeling approach developed herein provides a framework to directly quantify the impacts of source-specific mortality factors on prey populations.

Transcription profiling in environmental diagnostics: health assessments in Columbia River basin steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss).

The health condition of out-migrating juvenile salmonids can influence migration success. Physical damage, pathogenic infection, contaminant exposure, and immune system status can affect survival probability. The present study is part of a wider investigation of out-migration success in juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and focuses on the application of molecular profiling to assess sublethal effects of environmental stressors in field-collected fish. We used a suite of genes in O. mykiss to specifically assess responses that could be directly related to steelhead health condition during out-migration. These biomarkers were used on juvenile steelhead captured in the Snake River, a tributary of the Columbia River, in Washington, USA, and were applied on gill and anterior head kidney tissue to assess immune system responses, pathogen-defense (NRAMP, Mx, CXC), general stress (HSP70), metal-binding (metallothionein-A), and xenobiotic metabolism (Cyp1a1) utilizing quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology. Upon capture, fish were ranked according to visual external physical conditions into good, fair, poor, and bad categories; gills and kidney tissues were then dissected and preserved for gene analyses. Transcription responses were tissue-specific for gill and anterior head kidney with less significant responses in gill tissue than in kidney. Significant differences between the condition ranks were attributed to NRAMP, MX, CXC, and Cyp1a1 responses. Gene profiling correlated gene expression with pathogen presence, and results indicated that gene profiling can be a useful tool for identifying specific pathogen types responsible for disease. Principal component analysis (PCA) further correlated these responses with specific health condition categories, strongly differentiating good, poor, and bad condition ranks. We conclude that molecular profiling is an informative and useful tool that could be applied to indicate and monitor numerous population-level parameters of management interest.