Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: An update to 2019.

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe's main line railways from 1990-2019. It is a sequel to the paper Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2009 (Evans (2011), which covers the three decades 1980-2009. The present paper discards the data for the 1980s, but adds the data for 2010-2019. The data cover the 28 countries of the European Union as in 2019, together with Norway and Switzerland. The source of the recent data is largely the European Union Agency for Railways. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre was -5.6 % per year from 1990-2019, with a 95 % confidence interval of -7.1 % to -4.2 %. The estimated accident rate in 2019 was 0.85 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, which represents a fall of 78 % since 1990. This gives an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in Europe in 2019 of 3.89. The data and results for 2010-2019 closely match the extrapolation of the results for 1990-2009, so that in 2009 extrapolation would have given a good forward projection for 2019. By the same argument this paper gives a forward projection of the mean number of accidents in 2029 of 2.12, assuming no change in train-kilometres, or pro-rata changes with changes in train-kilometres. The paper investigates the causes of accidents. A notable finding is that the proportion of accidents caused by signals passed at danger (SPADs) fell from 40 % in 1990-1999 to 21 % in 2010-2019. This is probably due to the increasing deployment of train protection systems. The number of fatalities in individual accidents has a skew distribution: most accidents have a small number of fatalities, but a few have a large number. The overall observed number of fatalities per accident is 4.23, and there is no indication that this mean changes with time. This implies that the mean number of fatalities per year has the same downward trend of 5.6 % per year as the mean number of accidents per year.

Domesticating olfaction: Dog breeds, including scent hounds, have reduced cribriform plate morphology relative to wolves.

The domestic dog is assumed by nearly everyone to be the consummate smeller. Within the species Canis familiaris individual breeds, such as the bloodhound or beagle, are known as olfactory stars. These are "scent breeds," a grouping variably defined as a genetic clade or breed class commonly used for scent detection tasks. Previous work suggests that the dog has a more robust olfactory anatomy than many mammal species. Now we undertake a closer investigation of the dog's olfactory system, both in relationship to its closest wild relatives, the wolf and coyote, and across individual breeds. First, we seek to resolve whether the dog has lost olfactory capacity through its domestication from the wolf lineage. Second, we test the inertial lore that among dogs, "scent breeds," have a superior olfactory facility. As a measure of relative olfactory capacity, we look to the cribriform plate (CP), a bony cup in the posterior nasal cavity perforated by passageways for all olfactory nerve bundles streaming from the periphery to the brain. Using high-resolution computed tomography (CT) scans and digital quantification, we compare relative CP size in 46 dog breeds, the coyote and gray wolf. Results show the dog has a reduced CP surface area relative to the wolf and coyote. Moreover, we found no significant differences between CP size of "scent" and "non-scent" breeds. Our study suggests that the dog lost olfactory capacity as a result of domestication and this loss was not recovered in particular breed groupings through directed artificial selection for increased olfactory facility.

Traverses, delays and fatalities at railway level crossings in Great Britain.

This paper investigates relationships between traverses, delays and fatalities to road users at railway level crossings in Great Britain. A 'traverse' means a passage across a level crossing by a road user, who may be a pedestrian, cyclist, or occupant of a road vehicle. The paper finds that the road users with the highest fatality rate per traverse are pedestrians at passive crossings. Their rate is about three orders of magnitude higher than that of users with the lowest risk, who are road vehicle occupants at railway-controlled crossings. The paper considers the choice between automatic and railway-controlled crossings on public roads. Railway-controlled crossings are widely used in Britain. They are about one order of magnitude safer than automatic crossings, but they impose greater delays on users. A formula is developed to give the overall delay to road users at either type of crossing in terms of the numbers of road users and trains per day, and in terms of the length of time that the crossing must be closed to the road to allow the passage of one train. It is found that automatic level crossings cause substantially less delay than railway-controlled level crossings. The official monetary values of road user delay and of preventing a fatality were used to estimate the valuations of delays and fatalities at hypothetical but representative automatic and railway-controlled crossings. These valuations were then used to explore the effect of replacing representative railway-controlled with automatic crossings or vice-versa. It is found that the valuation of the reduced delays from adopting automatic crossings typically outweighs the valuation of the losses from the increased casualties. However, in practice Britain has chosen to retain a large number of railway-controlled crossings, which implies accepting the delays in return for a good level crossing safety record. Finally, an analysis is carried out to determine the additional risk of typical car and walk journeys that involve traversing a level crossing compared with similar journeys that do not. It is found that the additional risk is small for motor vehicle journeys, but substantial for walk journeys.

Factors associated with the enactment of safety belt and motorcycle helmet laws.

It has been shown that road safety laws, such as motorcycle helmet and safety belt laws, have a significant effect in reducing road fatalities. Although an expanding body of literature has documented the effects of these laws on road safety, it remains unclear which factors influence the likelihood that these laws are enacted. This study attempts to identify the factors that influence the decision to enact safety belt and motorcycle helmet laws. Using panel data from 31 countries between 1963 and 2002, our results reveal that increased democracy, education level, per capita income, political stability, and more equitable income distribution within a country are associated with the enactment of road safety laws.

Fatal accidents at railway level crossings in Great Britain 1946-2009.

This paper investigates fatal accidents and fatalities at level crossings in Great Britain over the 64-year period 1946-2009. The numbers of fatal accidents and fatalities per year fell by about 65% in the first half of that period, but since then have remained more or less constant at about 11 fatal accidents and 12 fatalities per year. At the same time other types of railway fatalities have fallen, so level crossings represent a growing proportion of the total. Nevertheless, Britain's level crossing safety performance remains good by international standards. The paper classifies level crossings into three types: railway-controlled, automatic, and passive. The safety performance of the three types of crossings has been very different. Railway-controlled crossings are the best-performing crossing type, with falling fatal accident rates. Automatic crossings have higher accident rates per crossing than railway controlled or passive crossings, and the accident rates have not decreased. Passive crossings are by far the most numerous, but many have low usage by road users. Their fatal accident rate has remained remarkably constant over the whole period at about 0.9 fatal accidents per 1000 crossings per year. A principal reason why fatal accidents and fatalities have not fallen in the second half of the period as they did in the first half is the increase in the number of automatic crossings, replacing the safer railway controlled crossings on some public roads. However, it does not follow that this replacement was a mistake, because automatic crossings have advantages over controlled crossings in reducing delays to road users and in not needing staff. Based on the trends for each type of crossing and for pedestrian and non-pedestrian accidents separately, in 2009 a mean of about 5% of fatal accidents were at railway controlled crossings, 52% were at automatic crossings, and 43% were at passive crossings. Fatalities had similar proportions. About 60% of fatalities were to pedestrians. A simple comparison of automatic railway level crossings and signalised road intersections found that in 2005 the numbers of fatalities per 1000 crossings or intersections were similar.

Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2009.

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe's main line railways from 1980 to 2009. The paper uses a new set of data for the European Union together with Norway and Switzerland, assembled partly under the auspices of the European Railway Agency and partly on the author's own account. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is -6.3% per year from 1990 to 2009, with a 95% confidence interval of -8.7% to -3.9%. The estimated accident rate in 2009 is 1.35 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, giving an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in 2009 of 6.0. The overall number of fatalities per fatal accident in 1990-2009 is 4.10, with no apparent long term change over time, giving an estimated mean of 24.6 fatalities per year in train collisions and derailments in 2009. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of serious accidents at level crossings remained unchanged in 1990-2009. The immediate causes of most of the serious level crossing accidents are errors or violations by road users.

The direct and indirect effects of corruption on motor vehicle crash deaths.

Recent empirical research has found that there is an inverted U-shaped or Kuznets relationship between income and motor vehicle crash (MVC) deaths, such that MVC deaths increase as national income increases and decrease after reaching a critical level. Corruption has been identified as one of the underlying factors that could affect this relationship, primarily by undermining institutional development and effective enforcement schemes. The total effect of corruption can be decomposed into two components, a direct and an indirect effect. The direct effect measures the immediate impact of corruption on MVC deaths by undermining effective enforcement and regulations, while the indirect effect captures the impact of corruption on hindering increases in per capita income and the consequent impact of reduced income on MVC deaths. By influencing economic growth, corruption can lead to an increase or decrease in MVC deaths depending on the income level. Using data from 60 countries between 1982 and 2003, these effects are estimated using linear panel and fixed effects negative binomial models. The estimation results suggest that corruption has different direct effects for less developed and highly developed countries. It has a negative (decreasing) effect on MVC deaths for less developed countries and a positive (increasing) effect on MVC deaths for highly developed countries. For highly developed countries, the total effect is positive at lower per capita income levels, but decreases with per capita income and becomes negative at per capita income levels of about US$ 38,248. For less developed countries, the total effect is negative within the sample range and decreases with increased per capita income. In summary, the results of this study suggest that reduction of corruption is likely a necessary condition to effectively tackle road safety problems.

Rail safety and rail privatisation in Japan.

Over the period from 1980 to the present, the economic status of the main line railway systems in many developed countries has changed, by privatisation or economic deregulation or both. The principal aims of such changes have been to improve the economic performance of the railways, and not to change the safety performance. Nevertheless, it is recognised that changing the organisational structure of railways might affect safety. The empirical evidence of the effect of restructuring on safety is limited, both in railways and in other industries. This paper adds to the empirical evidence by analysing train accidents in Japan before and after the privatisation of the Japanese National Railways (JNR) in 1987. The paper finds that the JNR achieved downward trends in the mean number of train accidents per train-kilometre in the 16 years 1971-1986, and the paper takes the extrapolation of these favourable trends as the yardstick by which to judge the safety performance of the privatised railways. The paper finds that the privatised railway had fewer train accidents in total than this yardstick in 1987-2006. This finding applies whether or not the high-speed Shinkansen train operations are included. Thus there is no evidence that rail privatisation in Japan had an adverse effect on train accidents. The methods adopted and the results are similar to those previously found by the author for rail privatisation in Great Britain.

Factors associated with the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic growth.

This paper examines the Kuznets curve relationship for motorcycle deaths. The Kuznets curve describes the inverted U-shape relationship between economic development and, in this case, motorcycle deaths. In early stages of development we expect deaths to increase with increasing motorization. Eventually deaths decrease as technical, policy and political institutions respond to demands for increased safety. We examine this effect as well as some of the factors which might explain the Kuznets relationship: in particular motorcycle helmet laws, medical care and technology improvements, and variables representing the quality of political institutions. We apply a fixed effects negative binomial regression analysis on a panel of 25 countries covering the period 1970-1999. Our results broadly suggest that implementation of road safety regulation, improvement in the quality of political institutions, and medical care and technology developments have contributed to reduced motorcycle deaths.

Interactions between rail and road safety in Great Britain.

This paper discusses the results of an investigation into ways in which the safety risks of travel on road and rail interact with each other in Great Britain, other than through physical contact such as at level crossings. The two main foci of the paper are: (1) an analysis of the 'whole journey' risks of journeys for which the national rail system is the main mode, but which also include stages by other transport modes to provide access to the railway system; and (2) an analysis of the effect on safety risk of inter-modal transfers between rail and road. On (1), walking to and from stations was estimated to account on average for 65% of the overall door-to-door risk of being killed on rail journeys; the rail system itself accounts for 21% of the risk, and other access modes account for the remaining 14%. The average distance walked to and from stations is 0.9 km per rail journey, and this walking accounts for 5% of all walking nationally. On (2), it was found that increasing rail fares to fund railway safety measures may lead passengers to switch from rail to car, but for most sensible rail safety measures, the additional risks from such diversions are small compared with the intended rail safety benefits. However, for high-cost rail safety measures funded by passengers, the additional risks from diversions may be of the same order as the intended safety benefits. The last section of the paper explores the effects of variations in the casualty rates of rail users as pedestrians and car users, because their road risks may be different from those of all road users. Such variations could alter the detailed conclusions of the paper, but the scale of such effects appears to be modest.

Rail safety and rail privatisation in Britain.

British Rail (BR), the former unified main line railway operator in Great Britain, was divided into about 100 separate organisations and privatised from April 1994. There was concern in the run-up to privatisation that the fragmentation of the system and the entry of new operators might compromise safety. This paper investigates what has happened to safety by analysing data on almost all fatal railway accidents, together with the most important non-fatal train accidents, from 1967 to 2003, with additional brief analyses back to 1946. BR had achieved downward trends in the mean numbers of accidents per train-kilometre for all the main classes of accident in the 27 years up to 1993, and the paper takes the extrapolation of these favourable trends as the yardstick by which to judge the safety performance of the privatised railway. The paper finds that the privatised railway had fewer accidents than this yardstick for all classes of accident. Only one indicator is adverse: the number of fatalities in train collisions and derailments is higher than expected, because of the severity of the accident at Ladbroke Grove in 1999. The principal conclusion is that there is no evidence that privatisation caused railway safety to deteriorate.

Estimating transport fatality risk from past accident data.

This paper examines the statistical properties of estimates of fatal accident rates, mean fatalities per accident, and fatality rates when these estimates are based on past accident data. The statistical properties are illustrated by two long-term transport fatal accident datasets from Great Britain, the principal one for railways and the other for roads, chosen to provide a statistical contrast. In both modes, the accident rates have fallen substantially over the long term. Two statistical estimates of current accident and fatality rates are presented for each dataset, one based only on recent data and the other based on estimates of long-term trends. The trend-based estimate is preferred for train accidents because this makes maximum use of the limited and variable data; the recent data are preferred for road accidents because this avoids unnecessary dependence on modelling the trends. For train accidents, the estimated fatality rate based on past accidents is compared with an estimate produced by the railway industry using a risk model. The statistical estimate is less than half the industry's estimate, and the paper concludes that the statistical estimate is to be preferred.