Complete genome sequences of two avian pathogenic Escherichia coli strains isolated from broilers exhibiting colibacillosis in Mississippi.

We report the whole-genome sequences of Escherichia coli strains APEC-O2-MS1266 and APEC-O2-MS1657 isolated from the liver and heart of infected broilers in Mississippi State, US. The genomic information of these two causative strains may provide a valuable reference for comparative studies of avian pathogenic E. coli.

Influence of pine and miscanthus biochar on the water activity and moisture sorption isotherms of used broiler litter.

The effect of various inclusion rates of pine biochar (PBC), miscanthus biochar (MCB) and starting moisture contents on the water activity (Aw) of broiler litter/biochar mixtures was examined. Suitable models for the resulting moisture sorption isotherms were also evaluated. For poultry mixed with PBC and MBC, higher starting moisture contents led to increased Aw. Aw generally increased at high inclusion rates of PBC and MBC, which may be explained by the porous nature and general hydrophobicity of BC. Of the five models examined, the exponential rise to maximum was considered to be the most useful due to its accuracy at moisture contents similar to those commonly found in commercial poultry houses (10-30 % wet basis). Accuracy of models was determined using R2, mean squared prediction error (MSPE), and mean absolute percent error (MAPE). In general, higher inclusion rates of biochar resulted in less overall prediction accuracy. Results from this paper indicate that several moisture isotherm models can be used to effectively model the relationship between moisture content and Aw in broiler litter and biochar mixtures.

Avian Pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC) in Broiler Breeders: An Overview.

Poultry meat is one of the major animal protein sources necessary to meet the global protein demand. Sustainability in broiler production is the key to achieving its continuous supply, and broiler breeders play a critical role in maintaining this sustainability by providing good quality chicks. Colibacillosis, the disease caused by avian pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC), causes severe economic losses to the poultry industry globally. Moreover, APEC causes an additional burden among broiler breeders, such as a decrease in egg production and mortality among these birds. There is vertical transmission of APEC to the broiler chicks through eggs, resulting in increased first-week mortality and subsequent horizontal transmission at the hatchery. In this regard, the vertical transmission of antibiotic resistance genes is another concern that needs attention. Controlling several diseases in broiler breeders would possibly reduce the first-week mortality in chicks, thereby maintaining the production level. For that, constant monitoring of the bacterial populations is critical. Moreover, amidst the increased antibiotic resistance pattern, more focus on alternative treatment strategies like vaccines, probiotics, and bacteriophages is necessary. Future research focusing on strategies to mitigate APEC in broiler breeders would be one of the finest solutions for sustainable broiler production.

Rapid, buoyancy-driven ice-sheet retreat of hundreds of metres per day.

Rates of ice-sheet grounding-line retreat can be quantified from the spacing of corrugation ridges on deglaciated regions of the seafloor1,2, providing a long-term context for the approximately 50-year satellite record of ice-sheet change3-5. However, the few existing examples of these landforms are restricted to small areas of the seafloor, limiting our understanding of future rates of grounding-line retreat and, hence, sea-level rise. Here we use bathymetric data to map more than 7,600 corrugation ridges across 30,000 km2 of the mid-Norwegian shelf. The spacing of the ridges shows that pulses of rapid grounding-line retreat, at rates ranging from 55 to 610 m day-1, occurred across low-gradient (±1°) ice-sheet beds during the last deglaciation. These values far exceed all previously reported rates of grounding-line retreat across the satellite3,4,6,7 and marine-geological1,2 records. The highest retreat rates were measured across the flattest areas of the former bed, suggesting that near-instantaneous ice-sheet ungrounding and retreat can occur where the grounding line approaches full buoyancy. Hydrostatic principles show that pulses of similarly rapid grounding-line retreat could occur across low-gradient Antarctic ice-sheet beds even under present-day climatic forcing. Ultimately, our results highlight the often-overlooked vulnerability of flat-bedded areas of ice sheets to pulses of extremely rapid, buoyancy-driven retreat.

Effect of Ultraviolet Radiation on Reducing Airborne Escherichia coli Carried by Poultry Litter Particles.

Airborne Escherichia coli (E. coli) originating in poultry houses can be transmitted outside poultry farms through the air, posing risks of barn-to-barn infection through airborne transmission. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of ultraviolet (UV) light on the inactivation of airborne E. coli carried by poultry dust particles under laboratory conditions. A system containing two chambers that were connected by a UV scrubber was designed in the study. In the upstream chamber of the system, airborne E. coli attached to dust particles were aerosolized by a dry aerosolization-based system. Two sets of air samplers were placed in the two chambers to collect the viable airborne E. coli. By comparing the concentration of airborne E. coli in the two chambers, the inactivation rates were calculated. The airborne E. coli inactivation rates were tested at different contact times with the aid of a vacuum pump (from 5.62 to 0.23 s of contact time) and different UV irradiance levels (of 1707 µW cm-2 and 3422 µW cm-2). The inactivation rates varied from over 99.87% and 99.95% at 5.62 s of contact time with 1707 µW cm-2 and 3422 µW cm-2 of UV irradiance to 72.90% and 86.60% at 0.23 s of contact time with 1707 µW cm-2 and 3422 µW cm-2 of UV irradiance. The designed system was able to create the average UV irradiation of 1707 µW cm-2 and 3422 µW cm-2 for one UV lamp and two UV lamps, respectively. The findings of this study may provide an understanding of the effect of UV light on the inactivation of airborne E. coli carried by dust particles and help to design an affordable mitigation system for poultry houses.

Survival of Escherichia coli in Airborne and Settled Poultry Litter Particles.

Airborne Escherichia coli (E. coli) in the poultry environment can migrate inside and outside houses through air movement. The airborne E. coli, after settling on surfaces, could be re-aerosolized or picked up by vectors (e.g., caretakers, rodents, transport trucks) for further transmission. To assess the impacts of airborne E. coli transmission among poultry farms, understanding the survivability of the bacteria is necessary. The objective of this study is to determine the survivability of airborne E. coli, settled E. coli, and E. coli in poultry litter under laboratory environmental conditions (22-28 °C with relative humidity of 54-63%). To determine the survivability of airborne E. coli, an AGI-30 bioaerosol sampler (AGI-30) was used to collect the E. coli at 0 and 20 min after the aerosolization. The half-life time of airborne E. coli was then determined by comparing the number of colony-forming units (CFUs) of the two samplings. To determine the survivability of settled E. coli, four sterile Petri dishes were placed on the chamber floor right after the aerosolization to collect settled E. coli. The Petri dishes were then divided into two groups, with each group being quantified for culturable E. coli concentrations and dust particle weight at 24-h intervals. The survivability of settled E. coli was then determined by comparing the number of viable E. coli per milligram settled dust collected in the Petri dishes in the two groups. The survivability of E. coli in the poultry litter sample (for aerosolization) was also determined. Results show that the half-life time of airborne E. coli was 5.7 ± 1.2 min. The survivability of E. coli in poultry litter and settled E. coli were much longer with the half-life time of 15.9 ± 1.3 h and 9.6 ± 1.6 h, respectively. In addition, the size distribution of airborne E. coli attached to dust particles and the size distribution of airborne dust particles were measured by using an Andersen impactor and a dust concentration monitor (DustTrak). Results show that most airborne E. coli (98.89% of total E. coli) were carried by the dust particles with aerodynamic diameter larger than 2.1 µm. The findings of this study may help better understand the fate of E. coli transmitted through the air and settled on surfaces and evaluate the impact of airborne transmission in poultry production.

Evaluating the Effects of Pine and Miscanthus Biochar on Escherichia coli, Total Aerobic Bacteria, and Bacterial Communities in Commercial Broiler Litter.

Escherichia coli (E. coli) is a commensal bacteria found in the gastrointestinal tract of poultry; however, some strains are pathogenic and can cause a wide range of diseases. In addition, some strains of pathogenic E. coli can survive in the litter between flocks, making litter management critical for reducing E. coli-associated infections. Biochar (BC) is a porous, carbonaceous material that may be a beneficial litter amendment to reduce moisture and microbial loads. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of pine BC, miscanthus BC, and Poultry Litter Treatment (PLT) on E. coli, total aerobic bacteria populations, and bacterial communities when added to used broiler litter. Pine and miscanthus BC were mixed into poultry litter at inclusion rates of 5%, 10%, 20%, 25%, and 30% w/w. PLT was surface applied at a rate of 0.73 kg/m2. Baseline E. coli and aerobics were measured after a 48-hr litter incubation period and just prior to adding litter treatments. Escherichia coli and aerobics were enumerated 2 and 7 days after adding treatments. Overall, pine BC at 30% had the lowest E. coli and aerobic counts (5.98 and 6.44 log 10 colony-forming units [CFU]/g, respectively); however, they were not significantly different from the control (P ≤ 0.05). At day 2, 30% pine BC inclusion rate treatment resulted in a significant reduction in E. coli and aerobic bacteria counts compared to the control. Miscanthus BC application did not result in significant reductions in E. coli or aerobic bacteria at days 2 or 7. PLT had the highest E. coli (7.07 log 10 CFU/g) and aerobic counts (7.21 log 10 CFU/g) overall. Bacterial community analysis revealed that the alpha and beta diversity between pine BC- and PLT-treated litter were significantly different. However, neither BC type significantly impacted bacterial diversity when compared to the control. Differences in E. coli and aerobic counts between BC types may be attributed to variations in feedstock physiochemical properties.

Evaluación de los efectos del biocarbón de pino y de miscanto sobre Escherichia coli, bacterias aerobias totales y comunidades bacterianas en la cama comercial de pollos de engorde. Escherichia coli (E. coli) es una bacteria comensal que se encuentra en el tracto gastrointestinal de las aves comerciales; sin embargo, algunas cepas son patógenas y pueden causar una amplia variedad de enfermedades. Además, algunas cepas de E. coli patógena pueden sobrevivir en la cama entre parvadas, lo que hace que el manejo de la cama sea fundamental para reducir las infecciones asociadas con E. coli. El biocarbón (BC) es un material carbonoso poroso que puede ser un aditivo beneficioso en la cama para reducir la humedad y las cargas microbianas. Los objetivos de este estudio fueron evaluar los efectos del biocarbón de pino, de miscanthus y de un producto comercial para el tratamiento de la cama en avicultura (PLT) sobre E. coli, sobre poblaciones de bacterias aeróbicas totales y comunidades bacterianas cuando se agregan a la cama de pollos de engorde usada. Se mezclaron biocarbón de pino y miscanthus en la cama de aves de corral con tasas de inclusión por peso del 5 %, 10 %, 20 %, 25 % y 30 %. Se aplicó el producto PLT en la superficie a razón de 0.73 kg/m2. La E. coli y los aeróbicos de referencia se midieron después de un período de incubación de la cama de 48 horas y justo antes de agregar los tratamientos de la cama. Se enumeraron Escherichia coli y bacterias aeróbicas 2 y 7 días después de agregar los tratamientos. En general, el biocarbón de pino al 30 % tuvo los recuentos más bajos de E. coli y aeróbicos (5.98 y 6.44 log10 unidades formadoras de colonias [UFC]/g, respectivamente); sin embargo, no fueron significativamente diferentes del control (P ≤ 0.05). En el día 2, el tratamiento con una tasa de inclusión de biocarbón de pino al 30 % dio como resultado una reducción significativa en los recuentos de bacterias aeróbicas y E. coli en comparación con el control. La aplicación de biocarbón de miscanto no resultó en reducciones significativas de E. coli o bacterias aeróbicas en los días 2 o 7. El producto PLT tuvo los recuentos más altos de E. coli (7.07 log10 CFU/g) y aeróbicos en general (7.21 log10 CFU/g). El análisis de la comunidad bacteriana reveló que la diversidad alfa y beta entre la cama tratada con biocarbón de pino y producto PLT era significativamente diferente. Sin embargo, ninguno de los tipos de biocarbón afectó significativamente la diversidad bacteriana en comparación con el control. Las diferencias en los recuentos de E. coli y de bacterias aeróbicas entre los tipos de biocarbón pueden atribuirse a variaciones en las propiedades fisicoquímicas de la materia prima.

Residence time determines invasiveness and performance of garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata) in North America.

While biological invasions have the potential for large negative impacts on local communities and ecological interactions, increasing evidence suggests that species once considered major problems can decline over time. Declines often appear driven by natural enemies, diseases or evolutionary adaptations that selectively reduce populations of naturalised species and their impacts. Using permanent long-term monitoring locations, we document declines of Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) in eastern North America with distinct local and regional dynamics as a function of patch residence time. Projected site-specific population growth rates initially indicated expanding populations, but projected population growth rates significantly decreased over time and at the majority of sites fell below 1, indicating declining populations. Negative soil feedback provides a potential mechanism for the reported disappearance of ecological dominance of A. petiolata in eastern North America.

Transcriptomic analysis of early B-cell development in the chicken embryo.

The chicken bursa of Fabricius is a primary lymphoid tissue important for B-cell development. Our long-term goal is to understand the role of bursal microenvironment in an early B-cell differentiation event initiating repertoire development through immunoglobulin gene conversion in the chick embryo. We hypothesize that early bursal B-cell differentiation is guided by signals through cytokine receptors. Our theory is based on previous evidence for expression of the receptor tyrosine kinase superfamily members and interleukin receptors in unseparated populations of bursal B-cells and bursal tissue. Knowledge of the expressed genes that are responsible for B-cell differentiation is a prerequisite for understanding the bursal microenvironment's function. This project uses transcriptomic analysis to evaluate gene expression across early B-cell development. RNA-seq was performed with total RNA isolated from bursal B-cells at embryonic day (ED) 16 and ED 19 (n = 3). Approximately 90 million high-quality clean reads were obtained from the cDNA libraries. The analysis revealed differentially expressed genes involved in the Jak-STAT pathway, Wnt signaling pathway, MAPK signaling pathway, metabolic pathways including tyrosine metabolism, Toll-like receptor signaling pathway, and cell-adhesion molecules. The genes predicted to encode surface receptors, signal transduction proteins, and transcription factors identified in this study represent gene candidates for controlling B-cell development in response to differentiation factors in the bursal microenvironment.

Considering weed management as a social dilemma bridges individual and collective interests.

Weeds pose severe threats to agricultural and natural landscapes worldwide. One major reason for the failure to effectively manage weeds at landscape scales is that current Best Management Practice guidelines, and research on how to improve such guidelines, focus too narrowly on property-level management decisions. Insufficiently considered are the aggregate effects of individual actions to determine landscape-scale outcomes, or whether there are collective practices that would improve weed management outcomes. Here, we frame landscape-scale weed management as a social dilemma, where trade-offs occur between individual and collective interests. We apply a transdisciplinary system approach-integrating the perspectives of ecologists, evolutionary biologists and agronomists into a social science theory of social dilemmas-to four landscape-scale weed management challenges: (i) achieving plant biosecurity, (ii) preventing weed seed contamination, (iii) maintaining herbicide susceptibility and (iv) sustainably using biological control. We describe how these four challenges exhibit characteristics of 'public good problems', wherein effective weed management requires the active contributions of multiple actors, while benefits are not restricted to these contributors. Adequate solutions to address these public good challenges often involve a subset of the eight design principles developed by Elinor Ostrom for 'common pool social dilemmas', together with design principles that reflect the public good nature of the problems. This paper is a call to action for scholars and practitioners to broaden our conceptualization and approaches to weed management problems. Such progress begins by evaluating the public good characteristics of specific weed management challenges and applying context-specific design principles to realize successful and sustainable weed management.

Confronting herbicide resistance with cooperative management.

BACKGROUND: Resistance of pathogens and pests to antibiotics and pesticides worldwide is rapidly reaching critical levels. The common-pool-resource nature of this problem (i.e. whereby the susceptibility to treatment of target organisms is a shared resource) has been largely overlooked. Using herbicide-resistant weeds as a model system, we developed a discrete-time landscape-scale simulation to investigate how aggregating herbicide management strategies at different spatial scales from individual farms to larger cooperative structures affects the evolution of glyphosate resistance in common waterhemp (Amaranthus tuberculatus). RESULTS: Our findings indicate that high-efficacy herbicide management strategies practiced at the farm scale are insufficient to slow resistance evolution in A. tuberculatus. When best practices were aggregated at large spatial scales, resistance evolution was hindered; conversely, when poor management practices were aggregated, resistance was exacerbated. Tank mixture-based strategies were more effective than rotation-based strategies in most circumstances, while applying glyphosate alone resulted in the poorest outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the importance of landscape-scale cooperative management for confronting common-pool-resource resistance problems in weeds and other analogous systems. © 2018 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Clinical features of serous retinopathy observed with cobimetinib in patients with BRAF-mutated melanoma treated in the randomized coBRIM study.

BACKGROUND: Serous chorioretinopathy has been associated with MEK inhibitors, including cobimetinib. We describe the clinical features of serous retinopathy observed with cobimetinib in patients with BRAF V600-mutated melanoma treated in the Phase III coBRIM study. METHODS: In the coBRIM study, 493 patients were treated in two randomly assigned treatment groups: cobimetinib and vemurafenib (n = 247) or vemurafenib (n = 246). All patients underwent prospective ophthalmic examinations at screening, at regular intervals during the study, and whenever ocular symptoms developed. Patients with serous retinopathy were identified in the study database using a group of relevant and synonymous adverse event terms. RESULTS: Eighty-six serous retinopathy events were reported in 70 patients (79 events in 63 cobimetinib and vemurafenib-treated patients vs seven events in seven vemurafenib-treated patients). Most patients with serous retinopathy identified by ophthalmic examination had no symptoms or had mild symptoms, among them reduced visual acuity, blurred vision, dyschromatopsia, and photophobia. Serous retinopathy usually occurred early during cobimetinib and vemurafenib treatment; median time to onset was 1.0 month. Most events were managed by observation and continuation of cobimetinib without dose modification and resolved or were resolving by the data cutoff date (19 Sept 2014). CONCLUSIONS: Cobimetinib treatment was associated with serous retinopathy in patients with BRAF V600-mutated melanoma. Retinopathy was generally asymptomatic or mild. Periodic ophthalmologic evaluations at regular intervals and at the manifestation of any visual disturbance are recommended to facilitate early detection and resolution of serous retinopathy while patients are taking cobimetinib. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01689519). First received: September 18, 2012.

Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS AND SIGNIFICANCE: We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO2 emissions per year during 2000-2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau's original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate-which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values.

Managing the evolution of herbicide resistance.

BACKGROUND: Understanding and managing the evolutionary responses of pests and pathogens to control efforts is essential to human health and survival. Herbicide-resistant (HR) weeds undermine agricultural sustainability, productivity and profitability, yet the epidemiology of resistance evolution - particularly at landscape scales - is poorly understood. We studied glyphosate resistance in a major agricultural weed, Amaranthus tuberculatus (common waterhemp), using landscape, weed and management data from 105 central Illinois grain farms, including over 500 site-years of herbicide application records. RESULTS: Glyphosate-resistant (GR) A. tuberculatus occurrence was greatest in fields with frequent glyphosate applications, high annual rates of herbicide mechanism of action (MOA) turnover and few MOAs field(-1) year(-1) . Combining herbicide MOAs at the time of application by herbicide mixing reduced the likelihood of GR A. tuberculatus. CONCLUSIONS: These findings illustrate the importance of examining large-scale evolutionary processes at relevant spatial scales. Although measures such as herbicide mixing may delay GR or other HR weed traits, they are unlikely to prevent them. Long-term weed management will require truly diversified management practices that minimize selection for herbicide resistance traits.

Soil-mediated eco-evolutionary feedbacks in the invasive plant Alliaria petiolata.

Ecological and evolutionary processes historically have been assumed to operate on significantly different time-scales. We know now from theory and work in experimental and model systems that these processes can feed back on each other on mutually relevant time-scales.Here, we present evidence of a soil-mediated eco-evolutionary feedback on the population dynamics of an invasive biennial plant, Alliaria petiolata.As populations age, natural selection drives down production of A. petiolata's important antimycorrhizal allelochemical, sinigrin. This occurs due to density-dependent selection on sinigrin, which is favoured under interspecific, but disfavoured under intraspecific, competition.We show that population stochastic growth rates (λS) and plant densities are positively related to sinigrin concentration measured in seedling roots. This interaction is mediated by sinigrin's positive effect on seedling and summer survival, which are important drivers of λS.Together, these illustrate how the evolution of a trait shaped by natural selection can influence the ecology of a species over a period of just years to decades, altering its trajectory of population growth and interactions with the species in the soil and plant communities it invades.Our findings confirm the predictions that eco-evolutionary feedbacks occur in natural populations. Furthermore, they improve our conceptual framework for projecting future population growth by linking the variation in plant demography to a critical competitive trait (sinigrin) whose selective advantages decrease as populations age.

Effects of different vaccine combinations against Mycoplasma gallisepticum on blood characteristics in commercial layer chickens.

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a major and economically significant pathogen of avian species. When administered before lay, F-strain MG (FMG) can reduce egg production during lay, but the ts-11 strain of MG (ts11MG) does not exert this effect. Two trials were conducted to determine the effects of pre-lay vaccinations of ts11MG, MG-Bacterin (MGBac), or their combination, in conjunction with an FMG challenge overlay after peak production on the blood characteristics of commercial layers. In each trial, 160 mycoplasma-free Hy-Line W-36 layers were housed in negative-pressure biological isolation units (4 units per treatment, 10 birds per unit) from 9 through 52 wk of age (woa). The following vaccination treatments were administered at 10 woa: 1) Control (no vaccinations); 2) MGBac; 3) ts11MG; and 4) ts11MG and MGBac combination (ts11MG+MGBac). At 45 woa, half of the birds were challenged with a laboratory stock of high-passage FMG. Parameters measured in both trials were whole-blood hematocrit and serum concentrations of cholesterol (SCHOL), triglycerides, calcium, and total protein (STP). An age×treatment interaction (P=0.04) was observed for STP between 23 and 43 woa. The STP concentration in the ts11MG and ts11MG+MGBac groups was higher at 33 woa, but was lower at 43 woa, in comparison to the Control group. Also, at 38 woa, the STP of the ts11MG+MGBac group was higher than that of the MGBac group. Although use of the ts11MG vaccine alone or in combination with MGBac may influence circulating STP concentrations when administered before lay, it remains effective in protecting layers against the adverse effect of a post-peak challenge of FMG on egg production, as was observed in a previous companion study.

Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia.

Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts.

Building the foundation for international conservation planning for breeding ducks across the U.S. and Canadian border.

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the PPR and predict between 62.1-79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year from 2002-2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding Pair and Habitat Survey (r2 = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking habitat and population goals across this important region.

Dose-response relationship in phase i clinical trials: a European Drug Development Network (EDDN) Collaboration Study.

INTRODUCTION: Because a dose-response relationship is characteristic of conventional chemotherapy, this concept is widely used for the development of novel cytotoxic (CTX) drugs. However, the need to reach the MTD to obtain optimal benefit with molecularly targeted agents (MTA) is controversial. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between dose and efficacy in a large cohort of phase I patients with solid tumors. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We collected data on 1,182 consecutive patients treated in phase I trials in 14 European institutions in 2005-2007. Inclusion criteria were: (i) patients treated within completed single-agent studies in which a maximum-administered dose was defined and (ii) RECIST/survival data available. RESULTS: Seventy-two percent of patients were included in trials with MTA (N = 854) and 28% in trials with CTX (N = 328). The objective response (OR) rate was 3% and disease control at 6 months was 11%. OR for CTX was associated with higher doses (median 92% of MTD); this was not the case for MTA, where patients achieving OR received a median of 50% of MTD. For trials with MTA, patients treated at intermediate doses (40%-80%) had better survival compared with those receiving low or high doses (P = 0.038). On the contrary, there was a direct association between higher dose and better OS for CTX agents (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Although these results support the development of novel CTX based on MTD, we found no direct relationship between higher doses and response with MTA in unselected patients. However, the longest OS was seen in patients treated with MTA at intermediate doses (40%-80% of MTD).

Shale gas, wind and water: assessing the potential cumulative impacts of energy development on ecosystem services within the Marcellus play.

Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km(2) in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades.