Ten-year projection of white-nose syndrome disease dynamics at the southern leading-edge of infection in North America.

Predicting the emergence and spread of infectious diseases is critical for the effective conservation of biodiversity. White-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging infectious disease of bats, has resulted in high mortality in eastern North America. Because the fungal causative agent Pseudogymnoascus destructans is constrained by temperature and humidity, spread dynamics may vary by geography. Environmental conditions in the southern part of the continent are different than the northeast, where disease dynamics are typically studied, making it difficult to predict how the disease will manifest. Herein, we modelled WNS pathogen spread in Texas based on cave densities and average dispersal distances of hosts, projecting these results out to 10 years. We parameterized a predictive model of WNS epidemiology and its effects on bat populations with observed cave environmental data. Our model suggests that bat populations in northern Texas will be more affected by WNS mortality than southern Texas. As such, we recommend prioritizing the preservation of large overwintering colonies of bats in north Texas through management actions. Our model illustrates that infectious disease spread and infectious disease severity can become uncoupled over a gradient of environmental variation and highlight the importance of understanding host, pathogen and environmental conditions across a breadth of environments.

Correction: Winter habitats of bats in Texas.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220839.].

External temperature and distance from nearest entrance influence microclimates of cave and culvert-roosting tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus).

Many North American bat species hibernate in both natural and artificial roosts. Although hibernacula can have high internal climate stability, they still retain spatial variability in their thermal regimes, resulting in various "microclimates" throughout the roost that differ in their characteristics (e.g., temperature and air moisture). These microclimate components can be influenced by factors such as the number of entrances, the depth of the roost, and distance to the nearest entrance of the roost. Tri-colored bats are commonly found roosting in caves in winter, but they can also be found roosting in large numbers in culverts, providing the unique opportunity to investigate factors influencing microclimates of bats in both natural and artificial roost sites. As tri-colored bats are currently under consideration for federal listing, information of this type could be useful in aiding in the conservation and management of this species through a better understanding of what factors affect the microclimate near roosting bats. We collected data on microclimate temperature and microclimate actual water vapor pressure (AWVP) from a total of 760 overwintering tri-colored bats at 18 caves and 44 culverts. Using linear mixed models analysis, we found that variation in bat microclimate temperatures was best explained by external temperature and distance from nearest entrance in both caves and culverts. External temperature had a greater influence on microclimate temperatures in culverts than caves. We found that variation in microclimate AWVP was best explained by external temperature, distance from nearest entrance, and proportion from entrance (proportion of the total length of the roost from the nearest entrance) in culvert-roosting bats. Variation in microclimate AWVP was best explained by external temperature and proportion from entrance in cave-roosting bats. Our results suggest that bat microclimate temperature and AWVP are influenced by similar factors in both artificial and natural roosts, although the relative contribution of these factors differs between roost types.