Building resilience to El Niño-related drought: experiences in early warning and early action from Nicaragua and Ethiopia.

Forecast-based drought early warning/early action has been hampered by both inadequate decision-making frameworks and a lack of appropriate funding mechanisms. Rural communities in Nicaragua and Ethiopia that have participated in resilience-building interventions of varying durations demonstrate the value of community-based actions informed by early warning, forecasts and drought management advice, both before and during the agricultural season. While drought affected all crops negatively, participants were better able to mitigate impacts, were more organised in accessing relief and recovered more effectively. These results are consistent with other research on the cost/benefit of anticipatory actions, use of climate services and appropriate drought management advice. They also confirm the importance of embedding short-term early action in long-term resilience-building. Despite this, formal systems, national and local, remain essentially unimplemented. Systems being developed at global level now need to be operationalised and translated into effective local drought management standard operating procedures for the most vulnerable.

Dealing with uncertainty: integrating local and scientific knowledge of the climate and weather.

While climate science has made great progress in the projection of weather and climate information, its uptake by local communities remains largely elusive. This paper describes two innovative approaches that strengthen understanding between the providers and users of weather and climate information and support-appropriate application: (1) knowledge timelines, which compare different sources and levels of certainty in community and scientific weather and climate information; and (2) participatory downscaling, which supports users to translate national and regional information into a range of outcomes at the local level. Results from piloting these approaches among flood-prone communities in Senegal and drought-prone farmers in Kenya highlight the importance of co-producing 'user-useful' climate information. Recognising that disaster risk management actions draw on a wide range of knowledge sources, climate information that can effectively support community-based decision-making needs to be integrated with local knowledge systems and based on an appreciation of the inherent uncertainty of weather and climate information.